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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Carola Hoyos of 'Financial Times'

Aired June 09, 2002 - 08:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Here now to discuss the developments in the Middle East, Carola Hoyos. She is the U.N. correspondent for "The Financial Times," she joins us live from New York. Carola, good morning.

CAROLA HOYOS, "FINANCIAL TIMES": Good morning.

PHILLIPS: Well, let's first talk about this statement we are expecting from Yasser Arafat and talks that he will be announcing some type of Palestinian reform. What is your take on that? What do you expect?

HOYOS: I'm not expecting terribly much. But this is clearly Yasser Arafat in trouble. He's not only in trouble because Sharon doesn't like him, the U.S. is distancing itself from Arafat. This is really one of his last chances. Even Mubarak was giving a hint that Arafat really needs to buckle down and act like a leader who could eventually lead a Palestinian state, or he's out of here.

PHILLIPS: Is Arafat a player here, or does he have to go?

HOYOS: At this point, he is here. He's here to stay. There aren't really others who are clearly coming up the ranks, and it would be very dangerous, I believe, and if you talk to European and Arab leaders, you will get the same opinion, to get rid of Arafat before there is really a plan, before there is another leader of the Palestinian people. It sends a terrible signal. So you have to have somebody really in the wings, and he's just not there at the moment.

PHILLIPS: You're saying that Egyptian President Mubarak wants more from this than Bush. Why do you say that?

HOYOS: That's right. Well, Mubarak, to a certain extent, is in competition with Saudi Arabia. Egypt has been a very important Arab player in this conflict and was pushed aside a little bit by the Saudis coming out with their plan a couple of months ago. So this is important for him on the world stage.

But in general, it's also high time for this political process to get moving along. Unfortunately, the situation on the ground really doesn't give us much hope that we'll see any serious negotiations between Sharon and Arafat any time soon.

PHILLIPS: Carola, why Egypt? Why has it been the most high- profile player in this Palestinian conflict?

HOYOS: Well, Egypt is a very, very important Arab state, and historically has been key. Of course, the relationship between Egypt and Israel has been very, very important, and Egypt has been on the forefront, bringing Israel, to a certain extent, closer and closer into the fold with its hostile neighbors sitting around it. So Egypt has always played an important point -- important part of this. And, don't forget, Egypt is an important ally of the U.S. And, also, very large influential country in the region.

PHILLIPS: Now, Bush and Sharon will be meeting tomorrow. How successful can these meetings go? Especially when Bush is not really even clear on his policy.

HOYOS: That's right. You've hit the nail on the head. That and the situation on the ground still being very volatile makes this a difficult meeting.

However, it's critical that they continue to meet on a regular basis, and, of course, Sharon doesn't want to leave the White House door open only for Arab leaders. And the relationship between Bush and Sharon is quite tight, as is the relationship between the U.S. and Israel. Expect Sharon to try and convince Bush to move further and further away from Arafat, and expect Bush to say to Sharon, look, there is a limit to what you can do. We support you fully, but be careful how you tread when you go into occupied territories. And at this point, I'm sorry, but we are going to have to move toward a final state for the Palestinians, and the leader at the moment is still Yasser Arafat.

PHILLIPS: When we talk about a political solution, obviously, a military solution is what has been used so much recently. It seems like military action is the only thing that really quells things quickly. So is this why this is stalling so much, taking so long is because military action does calm things down for the short run, and it's easy to do and Sharon can just activate the troops?

HOYOS: I think you're absolutely right there. The other thing is that it really only takes one bomber who is very, very difficult to stop, to throw things into pandemonium again, not only in Israel, but also politically. And don't forget that Sharon has unbelievable support from within Israel. And I think that the shadow of the failed talks under the Clinton administration still looms large in Israel.

So at this point, not terribly much appetite for another political process with a man Sharon does not trust at all.

PHILLIPS: I've got to touch on India-Pakistan while I have you, Carola.

HOYOS: OK.

PHILLIPS: Tensions easing? What do you think?

HOYOS: Yes, I do think tensions are easing. We haven't solved the problem there, but that is exactly the way to say it, that tensions are easing. Now, the hard part starts, trying to really get a viable solution for Kashmir.

I'm not sure whether the Bush administration is going to do this, or it's just going to continue to be a fireman in this situation. It's a very difficult and very long conflict. But you're right, for now, with Musharraf having promised to stop helping -- give cover to terrorists going into Kashmir, things have really calmed down. And the U.S. has played a good key role as the negotiator and as a go- between in this situation.

PHILLIPS: Musharraf, Mubarak, it's hard to keep all these names straight. So many leaders that we've got to pay attention to. Carola Hoyos, with the "Financial Times," it's always a pleasure. You offer great insight. Thank you so much.

HOYOS: Thank you.

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