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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Pat Tyler

Aired September 29, 2002 - 07:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Joining me now to talk more about this joint CNN-"New York Times" report, Pat Tyler, who you saw in that report, and she's correspondent for "The New York Times," joining us this morning from Washington. Thanks for being with us today.
PAT TYLER, NEW YORK TIMES: Glad to be here.

CALLAWAY: Disturbing reports from Wolf, you know, 20 years is a long time, and looking back over the history between Iraq and Iran and the U.S. is a complicated one. Right now, how great a threat is Saddam Hussein now?

TYLER: Oh, I think that today he's much the less threat he was in 1990, when the United States and its coalition decided to go and push his army out of Kuwait and institute a program that we're still involved in to disarm him, especially from his weapons of mass destruction, or his programs to develop them. I think his army has been significantly degraded. His capabilities, his ability to sustain and support military operations much degraded from the army we faced in 1991.

CALLAWAY: So do you think the U.S. is going to go to actual war to remove him from power? Is now the time?

TYLER: I don't think that war at this point is a foregone conclusion. I think it's becoming more and more likely as the Bush administration drives this process of confrontation to get the return of the U.N. inspectors to Iraq to find those weapons of mass destruction, I think, and Saddam continues to resist this effort. I think it's becoming more likely.

CALLAWAY: You know, we have the report that we just told everyone about the two men, officials in Turkey say, are suspected of carrying some 35 pounds of uranium. We should reiterate to everyone that this has not been confirmed that it was uranium, but when you hear these types of stories, you have to wonder, how would they get the material to build the weapons of mass destruction, because indeed we know they have the scientists to do it?

TYLER: Sure. They have the scientists, but they really don't have the industrial infrastructure that is necessary to build that weapon. That's what the U.N. coalition took away from them, and that's what 10 years of inspections took away from them.

But they do still have this base of Iraqi scientists. They have very good physicists there, and Saddam has kept this group -- this scientific group intact, and so the nightmare scenario is Iraq being able to get a hold of enough weapons grade material to hand to that scientific community to fashion a bomb. They have the design; they can put one together. We shouldn't doubt that.

CALLAWAY: Well, we should also say that these two men who were apparently arrested, we have no idea where they were headed or what they were carrying. But how would you surmise something like that would be done? Certainly it would take more than 35 pounds of uranium to build a weapon.

TYLER: No, actually, 35 pounds of highly enriched uranium would be enough to make a crude weapon, and again, it is the material itself that is the object of so much work and industrial requirement to refine and to enrich uranium, natural uranium, to weapons grade uranium. If that process is already done, if you can buy weapons grade uranium in the black market -- and that's not easy to do. It hasn't been done to date. No one has fashioned a bomb, no rogue state has fashioned a bomb out of this kind of material bought on the black market. There are lots of concerns that it's leaking out of the former Soviet Union states, but it just hasn't happened yet.

If this report proves true, that this is highly enriched uranium, it would be a first, it would be an alarming first, and it would indicate that more work needs to be done in countering the proliferation activities that are going on in that part of the world.

CALLAWAY: How likely is that a diplomatic agreement could be reached in some way with Saddam Hussein? I know the U.S. has U.S. representatives there now. It's such a complicated relationship between the U.S. and Iraq. I'm thinking back to the mid-'80s, during the Reagan administration, I mean, actually Donald Rumsfeld was sent there to try to improve relationship.

TYLER: He was. It is a complicated relationship. I don't think we can ever discount the potentiality for diplomacy and political negotiation to avert war, and I think efforts are going to be made continuously in this confrontation to avert war and to find a political solution that gets the U.N. inspectors back in there on a tough, rigorous inspection regime, and to disarm him of his weapons of mass destruction.

He is a survivor. I think that's one thing we have to understand about Saddam Hussein. I think that's the intelligence community's assessment of him, and he is not suicidal. And therefore, he will try to maneuver -- he has a weak military now, he has very few cards in his hand. He will try to maneuver to get out of this situation, and one of the options available to him is to turn over these weapons. Another option is for him to leave power and to go into exile somewhere.

CALLAWAY: Right. We will soon now the end to this story, we hope. Pat Tyler, "The New York Times," thank you for being with us this morning.

TYLER: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 29, 2002 - 07:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLAWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Joining me now to talk more about this joint CNN-"New York Times" report, Pat Tyler, who you saw in that report, and she's correspondent for "The New York Times," joining us this morning from Washington. Thanks for being with us today.
PAT TYLER, NEW YORK TIMES: Glad to be here.

CALLAWAY: Disturbing reports from Wolf, you know, 20 years is a long time, and looking back over the history between Iraq and Iran and the U.S. is a complicated one. Right now, how great a threat is Saddam Hussein now?

TYLER: Oh, I think that today he's much the less threat he was in 1990, when the United States and its coalition decided to go and push his army out of Kuwait and institute a program that we're still involved in to disarm him, especially from his weapons of mass destruction, or his programs to develop them. I think his army has been significantly degraded. His capabilities, his ability to sustain and support military operations much degraded from the army we faced in 1991.

CALLAWAY: So do you think the U.S. is going to go to actual war to remove him from power? Is now the time?

TYLER: I don't think that war at this point is a foregone conclusion. I think it's becoming more and more likely as the Bush administration drives this process of confrontation to get the return of the U.N. inspectors to Iraq to find those weapons of mass destruction, I think, and Saddam continues to resist this effort. I think it's becoming more likely.

CALLAWAY: You know, we have the report that we just told everyone about the two men, officials in Turkey say, are suspected of carrying some 35 pounds of uranium. We should reiterate to everyone that this has not been confirmed that it was uranium, but when you hear these types of stories, you have to wonder, how would they get the material to build the weapons of mass destruction, because indeed we know they have the scientists to do it?

TYLER: Sure. They have the scientists, but they really don't have the industrial infrastructure that is necessary to build that weapon. That's what the U.N. coalition took away from them, and that's what 10 years of inspections took away from them.

But they do still have this base of Iraqi scientists. They have very good physicists there, and Saddam has kept this group -- this scientific group intact, and so the nightmare scenario is Iraq being able to get a hold of enough weapons grade material to hand to that scientific community to fashion a bomb. They have the design; they can put one together. We shouldn't doubt that.

CALLAWAY: Well, we should also say that these two men who were apparently arrested, we have no idea where they were headed or what they were carrying. But how would you surmise something like that would be done? Certainly it would take more than 35 pounds of uranium to build a weapon.

TYLER: No, actually, 35 pounds of highly enriched uranium would be enough to make a crude weapon, and again, it is the material itself that is the object of so much work and industrial requirement to refine and to enrich uranium, natural uranium, to weapons grade uranium. If that process is already done, if you can buy weapons grade uranium in the black market -- and that's not easy to do. It hasn't been done to date. No one has fashioned a bomb, no rogue state has fashioned a bomb out of this kind of material bought on the black market. There are lots of concerns that it's leaking out of the former Soviet Union states, but it just hasn't happened yet.

If this report proves true, that this is highly enriched uranium, it would be a first, it would be an alarming first, and it would indicate that more work needs to be done in countering the proliferation activities that are going on in that part of the world.

CALLAWAY: How likely is that a diplomatic agreement could be reached in some way with Saddam Hussein? I know the U.S. has U.S. representatives there now. It's such a complicated relationship between the U.S. and Iraq. I'm thinking back to the mid-'80s, during the Reagan administration, I mean, actually Donald Rumsfeld was sent there to try to improve relationship.

TYLER: He was. It is a complicated relationship. I don't think we can ever discount the potentiality for diplomacy and political negotiation to avert war, and I think efforts are going to be made continuously in this confrontation to avert war and to find a political solution that gets the U.N. inspectors back in there on a tough, rigorous inspection regime, and to disarm him of his weapons of mass destruction.

He is a survivor. I think that's one thing we have to understand about Saddam Hussein. I think that's the intelligence community's assessment of him, and he is not suicidal. And therefore, he will try to maneuver -- he has a weak military now, he has very few cards in his hand. He will try to maneuver to get out of this situation, and one of the options available to him is to turn over these weapons. Another option is for him to leave power and to go into exile somewhere.

CALLAWAY: Right. We will soon now the end to this story, we hope. Pat Tyler, "The New York Times," thank you for being with us this morning.

TYLER: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com