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CNN Sunday Morning

Which Party Will Control Congress After Midterm Elections?

Aired October 27, 2002 - 07:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. midterm elections are about a week away. And for both political parties, the problem isn't just staying on message, but getting that message heard in the first place.
CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider has some insight into that, and he joins us now from Washington.

Bill, thanks for getting up early for us this morning on a Sunday.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: My pleasure.

SAN MIGUEL: Before we start taking a look at the bigger picture here, I have to ask you to comment on what CNN has learned. The Democratic officials have indeed approached former Vice President Walter Mondale about having the former vice president take Paul Wellstone's place on the ballot there. How effective a candidate do you think he will be, considering that he really hasn't been in the public eye for some two decades now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he was of course, a senator from Minnesota until 1976, then vice president. Then under the Clinton administration, he was the U.S. ambassador to Japan.

He's a senior statesman in Minnesota. He's 74-years old. He is -- he has instant name recognition, which is what they need because they're naming someone to replace Paul Wellstone in the last week of the campaign. Nobody can introduce himself to the voters, become known. They're -- Democrats are hoping that he can hold that seat, not only because people in Minnesota will vote for Walter Mondale, a familiar and even a beloved figure, but also because of sympathy for Paul Wellstone.

We've seen that happen before when someone dies, Mel Carnahan died two years ago, voters actually voted for him on the ballot in Missouri. The Democrats hope the same thing will happen in Minnesota this time.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's talk about what the issue has been for the Democrats and the Republicans overall in this midterm election, the fact that the Democrats would love to have the populace take a look at the economy, the situation there. And the Republicans will, you know, want this to be a referendum on Bush's stewardship of the war on terror and the situation with Iraq.

With a week to go here, what do you think is going to be -- they'll be focusing on?

SCHNEIDER: Well, we've seen the situation where the war was the topic for September. And slowly as October has proceeded, the economy has begun to overtake it. And that's because economic anxiety has been mounting in this country, and voters are taking it much more seriously, and they're worried about it. And this could hurt the administration.

We're not seeing any big surge of support for Democrats, but we'll see what happens in the last week of the campaign. We know that when President Bush took office, 82 percent of Americans thought the economy was in good shape. That number has steadily declined. We had a recession last winter. It began to climb a little bit this year. And now it's dropped back below a majority.

Only 41 percent of Americans now describe the U.S economy as in good shape, which is half, half as many who said that as when Bush took office in January 2001. That's a very sharp decline. And that issue is coming to dominate this campaign, but not yet paying off big time for the Democrats.

SAN MIGUEL: And I wanted to focus on just a couple of key races here. The one that's fascinating to me, because it's my home state, it's Texas, Rick Perry, the Republican, the successor to then Governor Bush against Tony Sanchez, one of the first Hispanic candidates to make a -- to run for governor there.

And then of course, the Democrat, Ron Kirk, seen as being pro- business, going up against Republican John Cornyn. How do you think this is going to -- everything is very tight right now, from what I understand with the polls.

SCHNEIDER: It's very tight in the Senate race. Rick Perry, the incumbent, appears to be a bit ahead in the gubernatorial race, but no one knows because for Democrats, they've nominated what they call the dream ticket, a Hispanic candidate, Tony Sanchez, who has a lot of money, a wealthy individual spending it in the governor's race, could bring out a heavy Hispanic turnout next -- that's never really been seen in Texas.

And second of all the nominee for senator, Ron Kirk, is an African-American. He could bring out a lot of black voters in Texas. So you put those two constituencies together, Latinos, African- Americans, and Democrats believe they have the making of a big surprise that could embarrass by President Bush by seeing Democrats the Senate, possibly the governorship in his home state.

SAN MIGUEL: Exactly. And then to look at North Carolina there, Elizabeth Dole versus Erksin Bowles, both having name recognition. Erskin Bowles from his time in the Clinton White House, and of course Elizabeth Dole. Where do you think that's heading, as we head into the last days of the campaign?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it looks like Elizabeth Dole is ahead, but not safely ahead. That race has been tightening up a bit again because economic anxieties have been very heavy. Some -- their ties to business have been an issue in that race, because the corporate responsibility issue that came out with Enron and Global Crossing and various corporate scandals, both of the candidates have been implicated in sometimes in an incidental way, sitting on boards or having connections with those businesses.

That's a very negative campaign. It's a very tough campaign. I'd say Elizabeth Dole is ahead, but the race is tightening up. And won't it be interesting, if she becomes a senator, and you have two Senate spouses...

SAN MIGUEL: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: ...one of them Bob Dole, and the other one already there, Bill Clinton.

SAN MIGUEL: That's right, who have a little bit of history between themselves as well.

SCHNEIDER: They may be competing to see who's going to be the president of the Senate spouses club.

SAN MIGUEL: That's right. I know they've talked about that before on "LARRY KING LIVE." One last quick question here, have you ever -- I mean, the reason that we talk to you is because you have this insight and a lot of experience in covering this. You are an unrepentant political junkie, I'm sure. Ever seen a midterm election shape up like this, where you have two races where the leading -- one of the candidates -- both candidates have dropped out for whatever reasons, because of tragedy or because of scandal of New Jersey, and just the tightness of the races. Have you ever seen a situation like this before?

SCHNEIDER: This is an unusually tight race. Both the Senate and House are completely up for grabs. And in New Jersey and Minnesota, you have substitute candidates. One because of tragedy, the other in New Jersey because Bob Torricelli withdrew at the last minute. So there, you have a 78-year candidate, Frank Lautenberg, who's running to reclaim his old Senate seat. If he agrees to run, Walter Mondale, who's now 74-years old, will be running to reclaim his old Senate seat.

We've really never seen anything like it, but probably the central race in this is the president's brother in Florida. He's running for reelection there. And the issue isn't the economy or the war, it's education, a very controversial plan that's being proposed, that would mandate smaller class sizes. It's an issue between the two candidates.

If the Democrats can figure out a way to overthrow the president's brother in Florida, the battleground of American politics, that would be the big news coming out of election day.

SAN MIGUEL: Exactly. I mean, there's the idea there that we may not -- a lot of this may not even be decided even on election night...

SCHNEIDER: Oh... SAN MIGUEL: ...after election night with runoffs. And if it's so close, I mean everybody supposedly has both sides have their lawyers ready to go in case we see a repeat of Florida in 2000, right?

SCHNEIDER: Not just Florida, but this race could go on. Remember, these races are very close. You could have the lawyers and the lobbyists and the vote counters, and God help us, maybe the courts, getting involved because in some of these races, they could be counting and recounting for days. Some of them could go into a runoff.

In Louisiana, they have a Senate race there. Now think of this, Mary Landrieu is the incumbent. She has three Republicans opposing her. November 5 race in Louisiana is a primary. And if she doesn't get or the top candidate doesn't get 50 percent, they'll have a runoff on December 7. Imagine this.

SAN MIGUEL: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: The Senate is evenly split. And you have to wait until December 7 to find out who controls the Senate. The money that would pour into that race would be astonishing.

SAN MIGUEL: Wouldn't that be fun? Everybody's head will be spinning by that point.

CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider, thank you for your insight. We do appreciate it.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Elections?>


Aired October 27, 2002 - 07:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. midterm elections are about a week away. And for both political parties, the problem isn't just staying on message, but getting that message heard in the first place.
CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider has some insight into that, and he joins us now from Washington.

Bill, thanks for getting up early for us this morning on a Sunday.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: My pleasure.

SAN MIGUEL: Before we start taking a look at the bigger picture here, I have to ask you to comment on what CNN has learned. The Democratic officials have indeed approached former Vice President Walter Mondale about having the former vice president take Paul Wellstone's place on the ballot there. How effective a candidate do you think he will be, considering that he really hasn't been in the public eye for some two decades now?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he was of course, a senator from Minnesota until 1976, then vice president. Then under the Clinton administration, he was the U.S. ambassador to Japan.

He's a senior statesman in Minnesota. He's 74-years old. He is -- he has instant name recognition, which is what they need because they're naming someone to replace Paul Wellstone in the last week of the campaign. Nobody can introduce himself to the voters, become known. They're -- Democrats are hoping that he can hold that seat, not only because people in Minnesota will vote for Walter Mondale, a familiar and even a beloved figure, but also because of sympathy for Paul Wellstone.

We've seen that happen before when someone dies, Mel Carnahan died two years ago, voters actually voted for him on the ballot in Missouri. The Democrats hope the same thing will happen in Minnesota this time.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's talk about what the issue has been for the Democrats and the Republicans overall in this midterm election, the fact that the Democrats would love to have the populace take a look at the economy, the situation there. And the Republicans will, you know, want this to be a referendum on Bush's stewardship of the war on terror and the situation with Iraq.

With a week to go here, what do you think is going to be -- they'll be focusing on?

SCHNEIDER: Well, we've seen the situation where the war was the topic for September. And slowly as October has proceeded, the economy has begun to overtake it. And that's because economic anxiety has been mounting in this country, and voters are taking it much more seriously, and they're worried about it. And this could hurt the administration.

We're not seeing any big surge of support for Democrats, but we'll see what happens in the last week of the campaign. We know that when President Bush took office, 82 percent of Americans thought the economy was in good shape. That number has steadily declined. We had a recession last winter. It began to climb a little bit this year. And now it's dropped back below a majority.

Only 41 percent of Americans now describe the U.S economy as in good shape, which is half, half as many who said that as when Bush took office in January 2001. That's a very sharp decline. And that issue is coming to dominate this campaign, but not yet paying off big time for the Democrats.

SAN MIGUEL: And I wanted to focus on just a couple of key races here. The one that's fascinating to me, because it's my home state, it's Texas, Rick Perry, the Republican, the successor to then Governor Bush against Tony Sanchez, one of the first Hispanic candidates to make a -- to run for governor there.

And then of course, the Democrat, Ron Kirk, seen as being pro- business, going up against Republican John Cornyn. How do you think this is going to -- everything is very tight right now, from what I understand with the polls.

SCHNEIDER: It's very tight in the Senate race. Rick Perry, the incumbent, appears to be a bit ahead in the gubernatorial race, but no one knows because for Democrats, they've nominated what they call the dream ticket, a Hispanic candidate, Tony Sanchez, who has a lot of money, a wealthy individual spending it in the governor's race, could bring out a heavy Hispanic turnout next -- that's never really been seen in Texas.

And second of all the nominee for senator, Ron Kirk, is an African-American. He could bring out a lot of black voters in Texas. So you put those two constituencies together, Latinos, African- Americans, and Democrats believe they have the making of a big surprise that could embarrass by President Bush by seeing Democrats the Senate, possibly the governorship in his home state.

SAN MIGUEL: Exactly. And then to look at North Carolina there, Elizabeth Dole versus Erksin Bowles, both having name recognition. Erskin Bowles from his time in the Clinton White House, and of course Elizabeth Dole. Where do you think that's heading, as we head into the last days of the campaign?

SCHNEIDER: Well, it looks like Elizabeth Dole is ahead, but not safely ahead. That race has been tightening up a bit again because economic anxieties have been very heavy. Some -- their ties to business have been an issue in that race, because the corporate responsibility issue that came out with Enron and Global Crossing and various corporate scandals, both of the candidates have been implicated in sometimes in an incidental way, sitting on boards or having connections with those businesses.

That's a very negative campaign. It's a very tough campaign. I'd say Elizabeth Dole is ahead, but the race is tightening up. And won't it be interesting, if she becomes a senator, and you have two Senate spouses...

SAN MIGUEL: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: ...one of them Bob Dole, and the other one already there, Bill Clinton.

SAN MIGUEL: That's right, who have a little bit of history between themselves as well.

SCHNEIDER: They may be competing to see who's going to be the president of the Senate spouses club.

SAN MIGUEL: That's right. I know they've talked about that before on "LARRY KING LIVE." One last quick question here, have you ever -- I mean, the reason that we talk to you is because you have this insight and a lot of experience in covering this. You are an unrepentant political junkie, I'm sure. Ever seen a midterm election shape up like this, where you have two races where the leading -- one of the candidates -- both candidates have dropped out for whatever reasons, because of tragedy or because of scandal of New Jersey, and just the tightness of the races. Have you ever seen a situation like this before?

SCHNEIDER: This is an unusually tight race. Both the Senate and House are completely up for grabs. And in New Jersey and Minnesota, you have substitute candidates. One because of tragedy, the other in New Jersey because Bob Torricelli withdrew at the last minute. So there, you have a 78-year candidate, Frank Lautenberg, who's running to reclaim his old Senate seat. If he agrees to run, Walter Mondale, who's now 74-years old, will be running to reclaim his old Senate seat.

We've really never seen anything like it, but probably the central race in this is the president's brother in Florida. He's running for reelection there. And the issue isn't the economy or the war, it's education, a very controversial plan that's being proposed, that would mandate smaller class sizes. It's an issue between the two candidates.

If the Democrats can figure out a way to overthrow the president's brother in Florida, the battleground of American politics, that would be the big news coming out of election day.

SAN MIGUEL: Exactly. I mean, there's the idea there that we may not -- a lot of this may not even be decided even on election night...

SCHNEIDER: Oh... SAN MIGUEL: ...after election night with runoffs. And if it's so close, I mean everybody supposedly has both sides have their lawyers ready to go in case we see a repeat of Florida in 2000, right?

SCHNEIDER: Not just Florida, but this race could go on. Remember, these races are very close. You could have the lawyers and the lobbyists and the vote counters, and God help us, maybe the courts, getting involved because in some of these races, they could be counting and recounting for days. Some of them could go into a runoff.

In Louisiana, they have a Senate race there. Now think of this, Mary Landrieu is the incumbent. She has three Republicans opposing her. November 5 race in Louisiana is a primary. And if she doesn't get or the top candidate doesn't get 50 percent, they'll have a runoff on December 7. Imagine this.

SAN MIGUEL: Yes.

SCHNEIDER: The Senate is evenly split. And you have to wait until December 7 to find out who controls the Senate. The money that would pour into that race would be astonishing.

SAN MIGUEL: Wouldn't that be fun? Everybody's head will be spinning by that point.

CNN senior political analyst Bill Schneider, thank you for your insight. We do appreciate it.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Elections?>