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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Bob Benenson

Aired November 03, 2002 - 07:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With control of Congress at stake in Tuesday's election, we want to take a closer look at some of the key races to watch. Joining us with some insight, Bob Benenson with "Congressional Quarterly." Good to have you with us, Bob.
BOB BENENSON, CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY: Good morning Miles. Hi.

O'BRIEN: Can you recall a congressional midterm election that's a -- was this close in recent memory?

BENENSON: No, no, it's really very competitive. The last one in '98, the Republicans also were maintaining a narrow majority in the House, but they had a bigger majority in the Senate.

O'BRIEN: So many razor thin races, it's hard -- it must have your head spinning as you try to keep track of it all.

BENENSON: It does. People keep trying to push me to make predictions, and I know it violates the pundits' code of ethics, but it's just really the most unpredictable election I have -- can remember.

O'BRIEN: That was virtual heresy right there, what you just said.

BENENSON: Yes...

O'BRIEN: No predictions from Bob Benenson -- all right, with that caveat, let's talk a little bit, how about viewers guide for folks, because I'm always interested in how people like you, who watch these races and watch these candidates so closely, how you watch on election night? What returns will you be looking for, what do you see as the bellwethers? If that's -- and if they're are such things as bellwethers for these local races.

BENENSON: Well, they're -- nothing is perfectly predictable, because there are so many close races across the country, but there are a few races worth watching very early in the evening. 6:00 is the first polls closing in the nation, in Kentucky, and also in Indiana, although they may not report until an hour later, because of time zones.

O'BRIEN: They just -- they vote early in Kentucky, for whatever reason.

BENENSON: They do, they do, it's fun, they get to kick back and have a bourbon, you know, watch the election results.

O'BRIEN: Careful, you're going to be hearing from those guys later -- but, anyway, so what in Kentucky, there's some good races to watch?

BENENSON: There are. There are two key House races in Kentucky. One is in the 3rd District, which is held by Republican Anne Northup. It's a Louisville-based district, very democratic voting otherwise, but she's been able to maintain a hold on it. She's facing a serious challenge from a Democratic lawyer named Jack Conway.

And then across the state, there's a Democrat names Ken Lucas, who's holding a very Republican district, and he's a facing a serious challenge as well.

O'BRIEN: Interesting. All right -- so, those are two races we haven't talked a lot about, but could be little bellwethers, and if you are a smart watcher, you can -- you can draw some conclusion, perhaps, from them.

BENENSON: Absolutely. If the Democrats manage to knock off Anne Northup in the 3rd District, then they've -- that will encourage them. They'll think that they maybe have a trend going, whereas if the Republicans hold that seat and knock off Ken Lucas, then it's going to make it even more difficult for the Democrats to gain control of the House.

O'BRIEN: All right, as the evening progresses, what are you going to be watching?

BENENSON: Well, in Indiana, there's also three key House races that are all for Democratic districts. Two for -- seats held by incumbents, one is Julia Carson, the other is Baron Hill, and the other is a northern Indiana district that's an open seat.

And then, for the Senate race, because it's only one seat larger in the Senate -- so, it could go either way on the basis of one takeover by one party or the other.

The first one to watch in New Hampshire. Their polls close at 7:00, and that's the state in which Republican Senator Bob Smith was defeated in a primary. John Sununu, a House member, is the Republican candidate, and the Governor Jeanne Shaheen is the Democratic candidate.

Very close race. New Hampshire is a very closely divided state, and - one of the big issues there is whether conservative voters, who are big fans of Senator Smith, hold any animosity toward Congressman Sununu for bumping him off in the primary.

O'BRIEN: Now, some of these other Senate races, Minnesota, South Dakota, just to name a few -- so terrible close. It -- and then I know you don't want to make predictions, but what -- is there one that stands out in your mind as one that really is going to tell us something? BENENSON: South Dakota and Missouri will really have a very strong bearing on the Democrats' ability to hold on to the Senate. In Missouri, that's the race in which Jean Carnahan was appointed to the seat, her husband, who won the famous posthumous election in 2000. He had been Mel Carnahan, the governor of Missouri had been killed in the plane crash. He was still elected and defeated Senator John Ashcroft.

Now, she has to stand for the final four years of that term, though, and she's facing a very, very strong Republican candidate and former Congressman Jim Talent, who almost won for governor two years ago.

Then in South Dakota, that's become a virtual proxy races between Tom Daschle, the Senate majority leader, and President Bush. Daschle is South Dakota's other senator, and he's out there really working hard to try and reelect Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, but the Republican candidate John Thune, who's the state's only congressman -- he a -- is -- he's a statewide office holder, so they're basically fighting on the same terms.

O'BRIEN: Seldom have so few voters had such an impact, talking about South Dakota here.

BENENSON: Exactly, you know, one of the least populous states in the country, but, you know, the Constitution gives every state, large or small, two senators, and they all have the same weight.

O'BRIEN: Minnesota at the 11th hour, it's actually 10:00 in the morning there, but at the 11th hour there will be a debate. Do you think that's going to be telling, or is that too late in the game for any impact on the race?

BENENSON: I think that what people will be looking for is any kind of potential slip-up, you know, that Walter Mondale's been out of this political arena for so long, that if he stands his ground, shows his deep knowledge of the issues, it probably doesn't move anything one way or another. It obviously gives the Republican candidate, Norm Coleman, a place on the stage to say, yes, I'm still in the race, I'm still fighting despite this terrible thing that happened with Senator Paul Wellstone.

O'BRIEN: Right -- sort of Mondale's to loose if he trips up, kind of thing.

BENENSON: Exactly.

O'BRIEN: All right, final thought on this, "New York Times" has a big part out this morning talking about voter attitudes, and as close as things are here, the opinions of Democrats and Republicans are very divergent, half full, half empty kind of stuff as to where the country is headed. How do you explain that big divergent in opinion, and yet such close races?

BENENSON: Well, there are a large number of districts in the country that are already mandated, Republican/Democrat -- so, that's where you split is. But in terms of who wins control, it comes down to a very few districts and states, almost all of which are is what we call swing states -- they can go either way -- and the decisive voters in those races are independents, centrist voting people.

So, both parties have really been kind of like muddling over their differences, you know, and so everybody's for everything good, and everybody's against everything bad, but the definition on those issues, which is the differences between the parties kind of get blurred over.

O'BRIEN: It seems you can develop a theory that they have gotten to the point where they're so compelled by their pollsters that they just don't connect with voters anymore like they used to.

BENENSON: Well, they don't try and move voters on a partisan agenda. The last time we had something like that was 1994, when the Republicans swept into control of Congress with the Contract With America. But they took that as a mandate, and some of the things that they tried to push through in the next Congress were so controversial that (UNINTELLIGIBLE) voters. So, there's a lot of caution now.

O'BRIEN: So, still kind of a contract Newt backlash still in play perhaps?

BENENSON: It's cautionary, the -- maybe the politicians overinterpreted it, and maybe the public is looking for more of a mandate from their politicians.

O'BRIEN: Bob Benenson of "Congressional Quarterly," thanks for coming in. Thanks for giving us that guide. Hope you were taking notes out there, because that's the way to watch it. And if not, just call Bob at home, he'll tell you how things are going.

BENENSON: Keeping score at home.

O'BRIEN: Yes, keeping score. All right, thanks a lot.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 3, 2002 - 07:06   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: With control of Congress at stake in Tuesday's election, we want to take a closer look at some of the key races to watch. Joining us with some insight, Bob Benenson with "Congressional Quarterly." Good to have you with us, Bob.
BOB BENENSON, CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY: Good morning Miles. Hi.

O'BRIEN: Can you recall a congressional midterm election that's a -- was this close in recent memory?

BENENSON: No, no, it's really very competitive. The last one in '98, the Republicans also were maintaining a narrow majority in the House, but they had a bigger majority in the Senate.

O'BRIEN: So many razor thin races, it's hard -- it must have your head spinning as you try to keep track of it all.

BENENSON: It does. People keep trying to push me to make predictions, and I know it violates the pundits' code of ethics, but it's just really the most unpredictable election I have -- can remember.

O'BRIEN: That was virtual heresy right there, what you just said.

BENENSON: Yes...

O'BRIEN: No predictions from Bob Benenson -- all right, with that caveat, let's talk a little bit, how about viewers guide for folks, because I'm always interested in how people like you, who watch these races and watch these candidates so closely, how you watch on election night? What returns will you be looking for, what do you see as the bellwethers? If that's -- and if they're are such things as bellwethers for these local races.

BENENSON: Well, they're -- nothing is perfectly predictable, because there are so many close races across the country, but there are a few races worth watching very early in the evening. 6:00 is the first polls closing in the nation, in Kentucky, and also in Indiana, although they may not report until an hour later, because of time zones.

O'BRIEN: They just -- they vote early in Kentucky, for whatever reason.

BENENSON: They do, they do, it's fun, they get to kick back and have a bourbon, you know, watch the election results.

O'BRIEN: Careful, you're going to be hearing from those guys later -- but, anyway, so what in Kentucky, there's some good races to watch?

BENENSON: There are. There are two key House races in Kentucky. One is in the 3rd District, which is held by Republican Anne Northup. It's a Louisville-based district, very democratic voting otherwise, but she's been able to maintain a hold on it. She's facing a serious challenge from a Democratic lawyer named Jack Conway.

And then across the state, there's a Democrat names Ken Lucas, who's holding a very Republican district, and he's a facing a serious challenge as well.

O'BRIEN: Interesting. All right -- so, those are two races we haven't talked a lot about, but could be little bellwethers, and if you are a smart watcher, you can -- you can draw some conclusion, perhaps, from them.

BENENSON: Absolutely. If the Democrats manage to knock off Anne Northup in the 3rd District, then they've -- that will encourage them. They'll think that they maybe have a trend going, whereas if the Republicans hold that seat and knock off Ken Lucas, then it's going to make it even more difficult for the Democrats to gain control of the House.

O'BRIEN: All right, as the evening progresses, what are you going to be watching?

BENENSON: Well, in Indiana, there's also three key House races that are all for Democratic districts. Two for -- seats held by incumbents, one is Julia Carson, the other is Baron Hill, and the other is a northern Indiana district that's an open seat.

And then, for the Senate race, because it's only one seat larger in the Senate -- so, it could go either way on the basis of one takeover by one party or the other.

The first one to watch in New Hampshire. Their polls close at 7:00, and that's the state in which Republican Senator Bob Smith was defeated in a primary. John Sununu, a House member, is the Republican candidate, and the Governor Jeanne Shaheen is the Democratic candidate.

Very close race. New Hampshire is a very closely divided state, and - one of the big issues there is whether conservative voters, who are big fans of Senator Smith, hold any animosity toward Congressman Sununu for bumping him off in the primary.

O'BRIEN: Now, some of these other Senate races, Minnesota, South Dakota, just to name a few -- so terrible close. It -- and then I know you don't want to make predictions, but what -- is there one that stands out in your mind as one that really is going to tell us something? BENENSON: South Dakota and Missouri will really have a very strong bearing on the Democrats' ability to hold on to the Senate. In Missouri, that's the race in which Jean Carnahan was appointed to the seat, her husband, who won the famous posthumous election in 2000. He had been Mel Carnahan, the governor of Missouri had been killed in the plane crash. He was still elected and defeated Senator John Ashcroft.

Now, she has to stand for the final four years of that term, though, and she's facing a very, very strong Republican candidate and former Congressman Jim Talent, who almost won for governor two years ago.

Then in South Dakota, that's become a virtual proxy races between Tom Daschle, the Senate majority leader, and President Bush. Daschle is South Dakota's other senator, and he's out there really working hard to try and reelect Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, but the Republican candidate John Thune, who's the state's only congressman -- he a -- is -- he's a statewide office holder, so they're basically fighting on the same terms.

O'BRIEN: Seldom have so few voters had such an impact, talking about South Dakota here.

BENENSON: Exactly, you know, one of the least populous states in the country, but, you know, the Constitution gives every state, large or small, two senators, and they all have the same weight.

O'BRIEN: Minnesota at the 11th hour, it's actually 10:00 in the morning there, but at the 11th hour there will be a debate. Do you think that's going to be telling, or is that too late in the game for any impact on the race?

BENENSON: I think that what people will be looking for is any kind of potential slip-up, you know, that Walter Mondale's been out of this political arena for so long, that if he stands his ground, shows his deep knowledge of the issues, it probably doesn't move anything one way or another. It obviously gives the Republican candidate, Norm Coleman, a place on the stage to say, yes, I'm still in the race, I'm still fighting despite this terrible thing that happened with Senator Paul Wellstone.

O'BRIEN: Right -- sort of Mondale's to loose if he trips up, kind of thing.

BENENSON: Exactly.

O'BRIEN: All right, final thought on this, "New York Times" has a big part out this morning talking about voter attitudes, and as close as things are here, the opinions of Democrats and Republicans are very divergent, half full, half empty kind of stuff as to where the country is headed. How do you explain that big divergent in opinion, and yet such close races?

BENENSON: Well, there are a large number of districts in the country that are already mandated, Republican/Democrat -- so, that's where you split is. But in terms of who wins control, it comes down to a very few districts and states, almost all of which are is what we call swing states -- they can go either way -- and the decisive voters in those races are independents, centrist voting people.

So, both parties have really been kind of like muddling over their differences, you know, and so everybody's for everything good, and everybody's against everything bad, but the definition on those issues, which is the differences between the parties kind of get blurred over.

O'BRIEN: It seems you can develop a theory that they have gotten to the point where they're so compelled by their pollsters that they just don't connect with voters anymore like they used to.

BENENSON: Well, they don't try and move voters on a partisan agenda. The last time we had something like that was 1994, when the Republicans swept into control of Congress with the Contract With America. But they took that as a mandate, and some of the things that they tried to push through in the next Congress were so controversial that (UNINTELLIGIBLE) voters. So, there's a lot of caution now.

O'BRIEN: So, still kind of a contract Newt backlash still in play perhaps?

BENENSON: It's cautionary, the -- maybe the politicians overinterpreted it, and maybe the public is looking for more of a mandate from their politicians.

O'BRIEN: Bob Benenson of "Congressional Quarterly," thanks for coming in. Thanks for giving us that guide. Hope you were taking notes out there, because that's the way to watch it. And if not, just call Bob at home, he'll tell you how things are going.

BENENSON: Keeping score at home.

O'BRIEN: Yes, keeping score. All right, thanks a lot.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com