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CNN Sunday Morning

2002 Elections Will Determine Balance of Power in Washington

Aired November 03, 2002 - 11:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: At the root of the biggest election story, the congressional races and the balance of power -- with some insights on that, we turn to CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who's joining us from CNN headquarters in Atlanta -- Bill.
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Fredricka. Balance of power is exactly what this game is about. Take a look at how close that balance of power is in the United States Senate. Fifty Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 Independent, a net gain of just one seat would make the Republicans the majority power. Watch for seats Tuesday night to switch parties, both ways, Republicans to Democrats, Democrats to Republicans.

For the Republicans to gain control they'd have to gain one more seat than the Democrats do and bring lots of milk and cookies because there are a lot of close elections as Bob Franken said and lots of recount, absentee ballots. This could go on very late.

WHITFIELD: Well, Bill, with the 49 and 49 in both the Republican and Democrats in the Senate and James Jeffords in Vermont, an independent voting as Democrat, do you see that it's likely or even possible the Republicans could pick up a seat or two?

SCHNEIDER: Look, anything is possible. There are just too many races out there, Fredricka, that are too close to call. President Bush is doing some barnstorming in the last few days of this campaign to try to get out the base Republican vote. Really and truly anything is possible.

WHITFIELD: There are some who say though it's quite impossible perhaps that the House might be able to or the Democrats might be able to pick up any more seats in the House with a six-seat advantage. Do you see that that's -- that's probably less likely than in the Senate to...

SCHNEIDER: I never like to hear the word -- I know that all political observers say exactly what you've just said, impossible. I don't like that word. I've been around so long I've seen impossible things happen.

Let's take a look at the House balance of power. There are 223 Republican seats, 211 Democrats, 1 Independent and as you said, a net gain of six seats would give control once again to the Democrats. That doesn't seem so hard because for midterm elections over the last 65 years, the president's party has lost an average of 30 seats. So for the Democrats to gain six, that would not seem difficult, but this year is strange because redistricting has actually reduced the number of competitive seats. Most seats in the House of Representatives, we already know who's going to win. That cheats a lot of American voters.

Some 90 percent of American voters, the district boundaries were drawn so they'd be safe for one party and there's not much of a campaign. As a result, the Democrats' chances of picking up the six seats they need don't seem so great, not impossible but again, the likelihood is they can't do it.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill. Let's talk again about the Senate race in Minnesota. Some might say it's awfully risky for this last- minute debate to go on. It really could go either way. Either, it could be a great boon for one of the candidates or a great bomb just one day before elections.

SCHNEIDER: I think in this debate all eyes will be on Walter Mondale and the question will be -- has he still got it? Does he -- is he in command of the current issues in American politics? Or does he look like a man of the past? There's going to be a lot of pressure on Mondale, in many ways somewhat like the pressure that was on Ronald Reagan when Walter Mondale ran against him. Reagan was about the same age as Mondale is now and the question of course was raised, is he too old? Everyone will be watching Walter Mondale to see has he still got it.

WHITFIELD: All right, other hot seats in the Senate. Arkansas for one, Colorado, New Hampshire.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. These are all very close. In Arkansas you've got Tim Hutchison, whose stormy personal life has put him at a disadvantage. His opponent is a well-known name, Mark Pryor. That is considered the seat likeliest to switch to the Democrats.

Colorado, a very close seat. The incumbent Senator, Wayne Allard, not well known. Both candidates have ties to communications companies that have gotten in trouble. This is a race where corporate responsibility is a big issue.

And finally, New Hampshire where Republicans managed to recruit John Sununu. He defeated an incumbent Republican Senator Smith in the Republican primary. Sununu was considered more likely to hold on to the seat. But this has become a very, very close race in New Hampshire with the governor, a woman, Jeanne Shaheen running a very close race against John Sununu.

WHITFIELD: All right, the precarious Democratic Senate seats then.

SCHNEIDER: There are a lot of those. We mentioned Minnesota. Missouri is one. Certainly, Jean Carnahan, the widow of the late Mel Carnahan, she was appointed as the senator and her opponent says she's ineffective because she really doesn't have the experience of a professional politician.

We mentioned Minnesota. There it's a tumultuous race with all kinds of last-minute surprises.

South Dakota, that's probably the closest race in the country held by a Democrat, John Thune versus Tim Johnson. To a lot of people, Tim Johnson looks like a stand-in for his mentor, Tom Daschle. And John Thune was handpicked by the Bush administration. So it looks like a Bush versus Daschle race. And we have last-minute developments like a voter registration scandal on Indian reservations that could come back and hurt Democrats.

WHITFIELD: And Thune -- a loss for Thune would be quite an insult wouldn't it for the Republican Party, particularly for President Bush since he was handpicked by him.

SCHNEIDER: He was handpicked as you -- so was Norm Coleman. In a way, John Sununu got support from national Republicans. The Republicans went out and picked a lot of candidates because they are desperate to hold on to the Senate. And now look at what the Democrats have done with Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey and Walter Mondale in Minnesota. All that proves the stakes in this Senate race are extraordinarily high for both parties.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill Schneider from Atlanta, thank you very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





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Aired November 3, 2002 - 11:04   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: At the root of the biggest election story, the congressional races and the balance of power -- with some insights on that, we turn to CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider, who's joining us from CNN headquarters in Atlanta -- Bill.
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Fredricka. Balance of power is exactly what this game is about. Take a look at how close that balance of power is in the United States Senate. Fifty Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 Independent, a net gain of just one seat would make the Republicans the majority power. Watch for seats Tuesday night to switch parties, both ways, Republicans to Democrats, Democrats to Republicans.

For the Republicans to gain control they'd have to gain one more seat than the Democrats do and bring lots of milk and cookies because there are a lot of close elections as Bob Franken said and lots of recount, absentee ballots. This could go on very late.

WHITFIELD: Well, Bill, with the 49 and 49 in both the Republican and Democrats in the Senate and James Jeffords in Vermont, an independent voting as Democrat, do you see that it's likely or even possible the Republicans could pick up a seat or two?

SCHNEIDER: Look, anything is possible. There are just too many races out there, Fredricka, that are too close to call. President Bush is doing some barnstorming in the last few days of this campaign to try to get out the base Republican vote. Really and truly anything is possible.

WHITFIELD: There are some who say though it's quite impossible perhaps that the House might be able to or the Democrats might be able to pick up any more seats in the House with a six-seat advantage. Do you see that that's -- that's probably less likely than in the Senate to...

SCHNEIDER: I never like to hear the word -- I know that all political observers say exactly what you've just said, impossible. I don't like that word. I've been around so long I've seen impossible things happen.

Let's take a look at the House balance of power. There are 223 Republican seats, 211 Democrats, 1 Independent and as you said, a net gain of six seats would give control once again to the Democrats. That doesn't seem so hard because for midterm elections over the last 65 years, the president's party has lost an average of 30 seats. So for the Democrats to gain six, that would not seem difficult, but this year is strange because redistricting has actually reduced the number of competitive seats. Most seats in the House of Representatives, we already know who's going to win. That cheats a lot of American voters.

Some 90 percent of American voters, the district boundaries were drawn so they'd be safe for one party and there's not much of a campaign. As a result, the Democrats' chances of picking up the six seats they need don't seem so great, not impossible but again, the likelihood is they can't do it.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill. Let's talk again about the Senate race in Minnesota. Some might say it's awfully risky for this last- minute debate to go on. It really could go either way. Either, it could be a great boon for one of the candidates or a great bomb just one day before elections.

SCHNEIDER: I think in this debate all eyes will be on Walter Mondale and the question will be -- has he still got it? Does he -- is he in command of the current issues in American politics? Or does he look like a man of the past? There's going to be a lot of pressure on Mondale, in many ways somewhat like the pressure that was on Ronald Reagan when Walter Mondale ran against him. Reagan was about the same age as Mondale is now and the question of course was raised, is he too old? Everyone will be watching Walter Mondale to see has he still got it.

WHITFIELD: All right, other hot seats in the Senate. Arkansas for one, Colorado, New Hampshire.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. These are all very close. In Arkansas you've got Tim Hutchison, whose stormy personal life has put him at a disadvantage. His opponent is a well-known name, Mark Pryor. That is considered the seat likeliest to switch to the Democrats.

Colorado, a very close seat. The incumbent Senator, Wayne Allard, not well known. Both candidates have ties to communications companies that have gotten in trouble. This is a race where corporate responsibility is a big issue.

And finally, New Hampshire where Republicans managed to recruit John Sununu. He defeated an incumbent Republican Senator Smith in the Republican primary. Sununu was considered more likely to hold on to the seat. But this has become a very, very close race in New Hampshire with the governor, a woman, Jeanne Shaheen running a very close race against John Sununu.

WHITFIELD: All right, the precarious Democratic Senate seats then.

SCHNEIDER: There are a lot of those. We mentioned Minnesota. Missouri is one. Certainly, Jean Carnahan, the widow of the late Mel Carnahan, she was appointed as the senator and her opponent says she's ineffective because she really doesn't have the experience of a professional politician.

We mentioned Minnesota. There it's a tumultuous race with all kinds of last-minute surprises.

South Dakota, that's probably the closest race in the country held by a Democrat, John Thune versus Tim Johnson. To a lot of people, Tim Johnson looks like a stand-in for his mentor, Tom Daschle. And John Thune was handpicked by the Bush administration. So it looks like a Bush versus Daschle race. And we have last-minute developments like a voter registration scandal on Indian reservations that could come back and hurt Democrats.

WHITFIELD: And Thune -- a loss for Thune would be quite an insult wouldn't it for the Republican Party, particularly for President Bush since he was handpicked by him.

SCHNEIDER: He was handpicked as you -- so was Norm Coleman. In a way, John Sununu got support from national Republicans. The Republicans went out and picked a lot of candidates because they are desperate to hold on to the Senate. And now look at what the Democrats have done with Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey and Walter Mondale in Minnesota. All that proves the stakes in this Senate race are extraordinarily high for both parties.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill Schneider from Atlanta, thank you very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure, Fredricka.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Washington>