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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Terry Taylor

Aired November 10, 2002 - 07:07   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: The clock is ticking on Iraq. The U.N. set several deadlines in its resolution. The first is Friday, when Iraq must notify the U.N. whether it will accept the resolution. Let's talk about these next steps now with Terry Taylor, the former U.N. weapons inspector. He joins us now from Washington D.C. Mr. Taylor, good morning, thanks for being with us.
TERRY TAYLOR, FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Good morning to you. My pleasure.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's talk about these deadlines, since this is -- this is what this resolution is all about. The first one, coming up this Friday, whether to accept the resolution, in this resolution which everyone says, more deadline oriented, and consequence laden. Do you think Iraq will accept?

TAYLOR: Well, I'd be very surprised if they didn't. I think this 15 to zero vote in the U.N. Security Council sent a very strong message to Iraq. So, I think in the end they have little alternative, although one can never be certain because Saddam Hussein is very much his own man, and he's not a great strategist, but my betting is that he will comply with this seven day deadline.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's say that that is indeed the case. Then the next deadline is 30 days to make a list of everything that Iraq has in terms of weapons, not just the list of weapons themselves, but also the people, the facilities, everything that would support weapons of mass destruction. This is not a new item to come up for Iraq. This was in resolution 687, but they've never done it yet. Would they do it now, do you think?

TAYLOR: Well, that's going to be, really, the first deadline that really will show us whether Iraq intends to cooperate or not. Actually, under Resolution 687, back in 1991, they only had 15 days to deliver this, but of course as we all know they delivered false declarations.

For example, if Iraq comes up with this declaration, so called, thorough, final, and complete declaration saying we have no biological weapons, or we have no chemical weapons, that just won't be credible for Washington, London, and others too. So, it will be a most interesting step to be taken.

SAN MIGUEL: That could be the point, which would trigger some military action at that particular situation, right? TAYLOR: That would be the first point, if it is a declaration which says, no nuclear, no chemical, no biological, no missiles, then I think that might be, might be a trigger. One can't say for sure.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's say then, for the sake of argument, that they, do indeed, for the first time, give you the list. Then the U.N. inspection commission has 45 days to set itself up and get out there, but do you really think it's going to take that long?

TAYLOR: Well, I don't think it will take that long, but don't forget, as soon as Iraq has said they'll accept the resolution, then the inspectors start setting up. So, it's not 30 days plus 45. As soon as they have said they accepted, the inspectors will start setting up. There's quite a lot to do, a lot of logistics, communications, transport, cameras, there's all sorts of things that have to be put in place, but I suspect they'll have it done within the 45 days, maybe 30 days, but perhaps I'm optimistic.

SAN MIGUEL: You well -- and I'm not sure why you would be that way, because as I was about to mention, you were the U.N. weapons inspector from '93 to '97. You were actually UNSCOM commissioner from '93 to '95. You have seen all kinds of delaying tactics from Iraq. Is there anything that they up -- you know -- that they would pull, that they would have up their sleeves, that would be new, that the weapons inspectors would have to contend with this time around?

TAYLOR: Well, I would expect so. Well, first of all, I think the Iraqi's -- my judgment is; that they would come up with some new information. It'll probably be incomplete, and so the inspectors will have to get out there and follow it up. The inspectors have to first of all, reestablish the base line of knowledge that the inspectors had, when they were eased out in 1998 -- so, that's one task. But, a parallel task they'll have to do straight away is to go for places where they things might be hidden.

Much will depend on what the Iraqis say in their declaration, that will probably, in some ways, guide them.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here is, you know, this list has to include people, as well, who have worked on weapons of mass destruction programs in Iraq in the past, when you've been out there in Baghdad, you have talked to some of these people, you know, the people you were actually luck enough to be able to get to without the government intervening, and then some of these people disappeared. Isn't that the case, they were never heard from again?

TAYLOR: Well, that did happen from time to time -- so, interviewing is a very challenging task. But, I think a lot was gained by interviews in Iraq, provided you got to the individual with little or no notice. It think these interviews that were conducted in rooms, with notice, for example, give the Iraqis the person's name and ask them to appear a certain date and time. Those didn't produce very much, but we were really quite successful with some interviews, when we caught people at their place of work, or somewhere where they weren't expecting to find us. And so, I think that still will be a tactic, but I think it's interesting this option of having people removed from Iraq, might be helpful in certain instances.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea also that, as you are there, or as you were there, and as the new weapons inspection team, if they do get to go in, they will be monitored at all times -- you know, has the past experience here, given any kind of, you know, new tactics I guess, for the weapons inspectors themselves to get around any of that? Any lessons learned that can be applied to a new weapons inspection team that would go in this time?

TAYLOR: Well, I think, certainly my lesson that I've drawn from the four years I was doing inspections there was to try to make maximum use of the great principle of surprise. And I think the more you can do that to keep people off balance -- and a lot of concurrent activities, I think are very important too. So, you have a number of inspections going on at the same time, so you're challenging the whole system.

My concern is that, or I hope, Dr. Blix, and Mohammed El-Baradei, he's the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the other agency involved here, I hope to have enough people to get into the country to do these multiple inspections, and to exploit the principle of surprise, which I think is very, very important -- that's if the Iraqi's are not cooperating.

SAN MIGUEL: And let's say that that cooperation ends while the inspectors are there. Let's say they actually do get to go inside and to begin their inspections and then something comes up, and then they -- you get the signals from the U.S., and the U.K. that, you know, that's the trigger right there, we're going to go in with military action -- how quickly do the inspectors leave, and just how dangerous the situation is that for the inspectors to be there?

TAYLOR: Well, it is a tricky situation, but this has happened before, and to get the inspectors out very quickly. We all had, you know, our vehicles when we arrived inspecting emergency kits, and so on, so that we could make for the nearest border if it got really very serious, but I don't think that was exercised at any time. But, the inspectors can be withdrawn pretty quickly from Iraq, but I'm not pretending it's not a sensitive tricky situation.

SAN MIGUEL: Indeed, and you have faced that before, as we said from '93 to '97 -- we should say also, you are currently president and executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the U.S.

Terry Taylor, former U.N. weapons inspector, thanks for joining us this morning.

TAYLOR: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com








Aired November 10, 2002 - 07:07   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: The clock is ticking on Iraq. The U.N. set several deadlines in its resolution. The first is Friday, when Iraq must notify the U.N. whether it will accept the resolution. Let's talk about these next steps now with Terry Taylor, the former U.N. weapons inspector. He joins us now from Washington D.C. Mr. Taylor, good morning, thanks for being with us.
TERRY TAYLOR, FORMER WEAPONS INSPECTOR: Good morning to you. My pleasure.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's talk about these deadlines, since this is -- this is what this resolution is all about. The first one, coming up this Friday, whether to accept the resolution, in this resolution which everyone says, more deadline oriented, and consequence laden. Do you think Iraq will accept?

TAYLOR: Well, I'd be very surprised if they didn't. I think this 15 to zero vote in the U.N. Security Council sent a very strong message to Iraq. So, I think in the end they have little alternative, although one can never be certain because Saddam Hussein is very much his own man, and he's not a great strategist, but my betting is that he will comply with this seven day deadline.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's say that that is indeed the case. Then the next deadline is 30 days to make a list of everything that Iraq has in terms of weapons, not just the list of weapons themselves, but also the people, the facilities, everything that would support weapons of mass destruction. This is not a new item to come up for Iraq. This was in resolution 687, but they've never done it yet. Would they do it now, do you think?

TAYLOR: Well, that's going to be, really, the first deadline that really will show us whether Iraq intends to cooperate or not. Actually, under Resolution 687, back in 1991, they only had 15 days to deliver this, but of course as we all know they delivered false declarations.

For example, if Iraq comes up with this declaration, so called, thorough, final, and complete declaration saying we have no biological weapons, or we have no chemical weapons, that just won't be credible for Washington, London, and others too. So, it will be a most interesting step to be taken.

SAN MIGUEL: That could be the point, which would trigger some military action at that particular situation, right? TAYLOR: That would be the first point, if it is a declaration which says, no nuclear, no chemical, no biological, no missiles, then I think that might be, might be a trigger. One can't say for sure.

SAN MIGUEL: Let's say then, for the sake of argument, that they, do indeed, for the first time, give you the list. Then the U.N. inspection commission has 45 days to set itself up and get out there, but do you really think it's going to take that long?

TAYLOR: Well, I don't think it will take that long, but don't forget, as soon as Iraq has said they'll accept the resolution, then the inspectors start setting up. So, it's not 30 days plus 45. As soon as they have said they accepted, the inspectors will start setting up. There's quite a lot to do, a lot of logistics, communications, transport, cameras, there's all sorts of things that have to be put in place, but I suspect they'll have it done within the 45 days, maybe 30 days, but perhaps I'm optimistic.

SAN MIGUEL: You well -- and I'm not sure why you would be that way, because as I was about to mention, you were the U.N. weapons inspector from '93 to '97. You were actually UNSCOM commissioner from '93 to '95. You have seen all kinds of delaying tactics from Iraq. Is there anything that they up -- you know -- that they would pull, that they would have up their sleeves, that would be new, that the weapons inspectors would have to contend with this time around?

TAYLOR: Well, I would expect so. Well, first of all, I think the Iraqi's -- my judgment is; that they would come up with some new information. It'll probably be incomplete, and so the inspectors will have to get out there and follow it up. The inspectors have to first of all, reestablish the base line of knowledge that the inspectors had, when they were eased out in 1998 -- so, that's one task. But, a parallel task they'll have to do straight away is to go for places where they things might be hidden.

Much will depend on what the Iraqis say in their declaration, that will probably, in some ways, guide them.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here is, you know, this list has to include people, as well, who have worked on weapons of mass destruction programs in Iraq in the past, when you've been out there in Baghdad, you have talked to some of these people, you know, the people you were actually luck enough to be able to get to without the government intervening, and then some of these people disappeared. Isn't that the case, they were never heard from again?

TAYLOR: Well, that did happen from time to time -- so, interviewing is a very challenging task. But, I think a lot was gained by interviews in Iraq, provided you got to the individual with little or no notice. It think these interviews that were conducted in rooms, with notice, for example, give the Iraqis the person's name and ask them to appear a certain date and time. Those didn't produce very much, but we were really quite successful with some interviews, when we caught people at their place of work, or somewhere where they weren't expecting to find us. And so, I think that still will be a tactic, but I think it's interesting this option of having people removed from Iraq, might be helpful in certain instances.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea also that, as you are there, or as you were there, and as the new weapons inspection team, if they do get to go in, they will be monitored at all times -- you know, has the past experience here, given any kind of, you know, new tactics I guess, for the weapons inspectors themselves to get around any of that? Any lessons learned that can be applied to a new weapons inspection team that would go in this time?

TAYLOR: Well, I think, certainly my lesson that I've drawn from the four years I was doing inspections there was to try to make maximum use of the great principle of surprise. And I think the more you can do that to keep people off balance -- and a lot of concurrent activities, I think are very important too. So, you have a number of inspections going on at the same time, so you're challenging the whole system.

My concern is that, or I hope, Dr. Blix, and Mohammed El-Baradei, he's the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the other agency involved here, I hope to have enough people to get into the country to do these multiple inspections, and to exploit the principle of surprise, which I think is very, very important -- that's if the Iraqi's are not cooperating.

SAN MIGUEL: And let's say that that cooperation ends while the inspectors are there. Let's say they actually do get to go inside and to begin their inspections and then something comes up, and then they -- you get the signals from the U.S., and the U.K. that, you know, that's the trigger right there, we're going to go in with military action -- how quickly do the inspectors leave, and just how dangerous the situation is that for the inspectors to be there?

TAYLOR: Well, it is a tricky situation, but this has happened before, and to get the inspectors out very quickly. We all had, you know, our vehicles when we arrived inspecting emergency kits, and so on, so that we could make for the nearest border if it got really very serious, but I don't think that was exercised at any time. But, the inspectors can be withdrawn pretty quickly from Iraq, but I'm not pretending it's not a sensitive tricky situation.

SAN MIGUEL: Indeed, and you have faced that before, as we said from '93 to '97 -- we should say also, you are currently president and executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the U.S.

Terry Taylor, former U.N. weapons inspector, thanks for joining us this morning.

TAYLOR: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com