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CNN Sunday Morning
Interview With Joseph Cirincione
Aired December 08, 2002 - 11:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Groups that track international military arsenals are anxious to hear what's in Iraq's declaration. They're also interested to see if the disclosure is supported by what the inspectors find.
Joining us now from Washington, Joseph Cirincione, who is a senior associate director of the Non-Proliferation Project. It's part of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Good to see you.
JOSEPH CIRINCIONE, NON-PROLIFERATION PROJECT: Pleasure to be here.
WHITFIELD: Well, the pressure is certainly on the inspectors. Are they better equipped either information-wise or even tool-wise to do this job?
CIRINCIONE: Yes, they are compared to the earlier stages, and more help is on the way. The inspectors are still arriving in the area, should come up to be 100, 130 inspectors by Christmas.
They still have not deployed many of their facility's equipment that they had been promised, such as U-2 reconnaissance airplane, Predator drones, ground penetrating radar, much of the equipment that the U.S. has. It has not yet but soon will supply the inspectors so they can do their job with or without Iraqi cooperation.
WHITFIELD: Well, let's talk about the personnel of those inspectors. Is it a pretty good mix of those who have been there earlier, maybe as early as four years ago, and some new sets of eyes, as well, or is it one more than the other?
CIRINCIONE: Well, these are all carefully trained professionals, well paid by the United Nations. They come -- the proceeds, by the way, come out of the Iraqi oil sales, so they don't have a budgetary problem.
I actually think they should be hiring more of the former inspectors, and they haven't yet done that, bring some of the people that have been through their plants, bring them back to bring their knowledge.
WHITFIELD: Why wouldn't they have done that?
CIRINCIONE: Well, they're a little sensitive to the Iraqi concerns. And you heard some of those in the press conference, that the former inspectors were being accused by Iraq of being spies and in the employ of hostile governments. So they're trying to distance themselves from that.
I'm a little concerned that they might be giving up some expertise, being a little too sensitive to Iraqi charges.
WHITFIELD: The waiting game is intensifying on these 12,000-page documents, the declaration, and there's an awful lot of expressed skepticism that there might not be enough in there.
But wasn't it just back in '93 when Iraq accidentally revealed some rather critical information, you know, in its documents? Perhaps there might be something buried in this 12,000 pages or do you think Iraq is just too savvy now? They know what they're doing; they know how to prepare these documents?
CIRINCIONE: Well, there's no question they're savvy.
I mean, look at this press conference, really state-of-the-art public relations. It was timed for Sunday morning talk shows. I'm sure your audience share went up because of the Iraqi press conference.
They are skilled; they know they're engaged in a battle for public opinion around the world. They're handling this very well, playing a weak hand very well.
In the process, undoubtedly they will disclose information that perhaps they'd rather keep secret. Think of this as an audit that the inspectors are conducting and the way we would audit Enron.
We are asking for all kinds of information, reams of information. They don't want to disclose anything incriminating, but in the process they are going to give us, as they have in the past, information that can provide the inspectors with leads where they can go, follow up, perhaps get some interviews, some whistle-blowers or defectors to provide them with more information, use the reconnaissance information, cross-check this with previous documents that they have.
If given enough time and enough resources, these inspectors can uncover most, if not all, of what Saddam may be trying to hide.
WHITFIELD: How much time are we talking about?
CIRINCIONE: Well, this is something we probably have to adjust our expectations over. You know, we've been calling this a showdown, a countdown. I think we're in for at least two months of solid inspection work and probably as much as a year, if the inspections are allowed to continue.
Now this upsets some in Washington, who feel that this is a trap and now is the opportune time to strike, even if we have to fabricate a crisis to strike.
I would say that the way the Iraqis are playing this right now and the level of cooperation is probably enough to satisfy most countries in the world. So it would be a very high-risk strategy for the United States to go ahead with an invasion at this point, given the fact that Iraq seems to be cooperating, seems to be providing information and there's at least the promise that the inspections can work.
WHITFIELD: And if it takes at least two months, as you see the inspection process, at least two months and this U.S. military buildup continues there and if, say, the U.N. finds nothing incriminating in these documents and the inspectors find nothing incriminating, then certainly the U.S. is likely to lose that international support.
CIRINCIONE: Well, it depends how you look at this. I mean, is Iraq right?
And you just heard your reporter from the Gulf report that most countries in the area, including Qatar, think that there's no way the Iraqis can satisfy the United States. That we're just look for an excuse to invade.
If they're right, well, then, we're probably going to invade.
I don't think they are. I don't think the president has made up his mind. I think the president's strategy is to provide a tremendous amount of U.S. military pressure to convince Saddam that his only choice is to cooperate.
If that is his goal, it is working perfectly. We're much further along this inspection road than anybody thought possible back in August. The president's trip to the United Nations on September 12 changed the whole tenure of the debate, united the Security Council. This process is working.
The question is, the president has to be balanced now and make sure that he gives Saddam an out. He cannot appear as if there's nothing Saddam can do -- that can satisfy the United States. He's got to always give Saddam the possibility of staying in power if he genuinely disarms.
WHITFIELD: All right. Joseph Cirincione, senior associate and director of Non-Proliferation Project, thanks very much for joining us.
CIRINCIONE: My pleasure. Thank you for having me.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 8, 2002 - 11:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Groups that track international military arsenals are anxious to hear what's in Iraq's declaration. They're also interested to see if the disclosure is supported by what the inspectors find.
Joining us now from Washington, Joseph Cirincione, who is a senior associate director of the Non-Proliferation Project. It's part of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Good to see you.
JOSEPH CIRINCIONE, NON-PROLIFERATION PROJECT: Pleasure to be here.
WHITFIELD: Well, the pressure is certainly on the inspectors. Are they better equipped either information-wise or even tool-wise to do this job?
CIRINCIONE: Yes, they are compared to the earlier stages, and more help is on the way. The inspectors are still arriving in the area, should come up to be 100, 130 inspectors by Christmas.
They still have not deployed many of their facility's equipment that they had been promised, such as U-2 reconnaissance airplane, Predator drones, ground penetrating radar, much of the equipment that the U.S. has. It has not yet but soon will supply the inspectors so they can do their job with or without Iraqi cooperation.
WHITFIELD: Well, let's talk about the personnel of those inspectors. Is it a pretty good mix of those who have been there earlier, maybe as early as four years ago, and some new sets of eyes, as well, or is it one more than the other?
CIRINCIONE: Well, these are all carefully trained professionals, well paid by the United Nations. They come -- the proceeds, by the way, come out of the Iraqi oil sales, so they don't have a budgetary problem.
I actually think they should be hiring more of the former inspectors, and they haven't yet done that, bring some of the people that have been through their plants, bring them back to bring their knowledge.
WHITFIELD: Why wouldn't they have done that?
CIRINCIONE: Well, they're a little sensitive to the Iraqi concerns. And you heard some of those in the press conference, that the former inspectors were being accused by Iraq of being spies and in the employ of hostile governments. So they're trying to distance themselves from that.
I'm a little concerned that they might be giving up some expertise, being a little too sensitive to Iraqi charges.
WHITFIELD: The waiting game is intensifying on these 12,000-page documents, the declaration, and there's an awful lot of expressed skepticism that there might not be enough in there.
But wasn't it just back in '93 when Iraq accidentally revealed some rather critical information, you know, in its documents? Perhaps there might be something buried in this 12,000 pages or do you think Iraq is just too savvy now? They know what they're doing; they know how to prepare these documents?
CIRINCIONE: Well, there's no question they're savvy.
I mean, look at this press conference, really state-of-the-art public relations. It was timed for Sunday morning talk shows. I'm sure your audience share went up because of the Iraqi press conference.
They are skilled; they know they're engaged in a battle for public opinion around the world. They're handling this very well, playing a weak hand very well.
In the process, undoubtedly they will disclose information that perhaps they'd rather keep secret. Think of this as an audit that the inspectors are conducting and the way we would audit Enron.
We are asking for all kinds of information, reams of information. They don't want to disclose anything incriminating, but in the process they are going to give us, as they have in the past, information that can provide the inspectors with leads where they can go, follow up, perhaps get some interviews, some whistle-blowers or defectors to provide them with more information, use the reconnaissance information, cross-check this with previous documents that they have.
If given enough time and enough resources, these inspectors can uncover most, if not all, of what Saddam may be trying to hide.
WHITFIELD: How much time are we talking about?
CIRINCIONE: Well, this is something we probably have to adjust our expectations over. You know, we've been calling this a showdown, a countdown. I think we're in for at least two months of solid inspection work and probably as much as a year, if the inspections are allowed to continue.
Now this upsets some in Washington, who feel that this is a trap and now is the opportune time to strike, even if we have to fabricate a crisis to strike.
I would say that the way the Iraqis are playing this right now and the level of cooperation is probably enough to satisfy most countries in the world. So it would be a very high-risk strategy for the United States to go ahead with an invasion at this point, given the fact that Iraq seems to be cooperating, seems to be providing information and there's at least the promise that the inspections can work.
WHITFIELD: And if it takes at least two months, as you see the inspection process, at least two months and this U.S. military buildup continues there and if, say, the U.N. finds nothing incriminating in these documents and the inspectors find nothing incriminating, then certainly the U.S. is likely to lose that international support.
CIRINCIONE: Well, it depends how you look at this. I mean, is Iraq right?
And you just heard your reporter from the Gulf report that most countries in the area, including Qatar, think that there's no way the Iraqis can satisfy the United States. That we're just look for an excuse to invade.
If they're right, well, then, we're probably going to invade.
I don't think they are. I don't think the president has made up his mind. I think the president's strategy is to provide a tremendous amount of U.S. military pressure to convince Saddam that his only choice is to cooperate.
If that is his goal, it is working perfectly. We're much further along this inspection road than anybody thought possible back in August. The president's trip to the United Nations on September 12 changed the whole tenure of the debate, united the Security Council. This process is working.
The question is, the president has to be balanced now and make sure that he gives Saddam an out. He cannot appear as if there's nothing Saddam can do -- that can satisfy the United States. He's got to always give Saddam the possibility of staying in power if he genuinely disarms.
WHITFIELD: All right. Joseph Cirincione, senior associate and director of Non-Proliferation Project, thanks very much for joining us.
CIRINCIONE: My pleasure. Thank you for having me.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
