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CNN Sunday Morning
Who Will Be Democratic Candidate for President in '04?
Aired December 22, 2002 - 08:11 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Shall we talk politics? Let's talk politics. And we're going to talk about who might get the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. We're not looking too far ahead, are we? Anyway, let's do it anyway.
A new CNN/"Time" poll shows questioned, when registered Democrats are questioned, 30 percent would choose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. Senators Joe Lieberman, John Kerry each got 13 percent.
To help us sort all this out, we go to one of our Washington soothsayers, a man who dispenses sage wisdom by the pound, Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times."
Good to see you, sir.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's look at -- put that tote board up there one more time if you don't mind, with Hillary at the top of it.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
O'BRIEN: If we can look at that for just a moment while we're chatting -- can we do that? I don't know. Hillary Clinton at 30 percent. All right, now, 30 percent, that is, what, that is name recognition, right?
BROWNSTEIN: It is largely name recognition, but it is still, to me, a head turning number, the second one in a week in that vast CNN polling empire. There was another CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll earlier this week, I guess last week now, that had her at 40 percent, a very similar kind of finding.
Really striking, both name identification I think some residual support in the Democratic Party especially for her husband. But I think it is extremely unlikely that she will try to take advantage of this. I mean she said very...
O'BRIEN: Oh, really? Why do you say that.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, she said very clearly that she wasn't going to run in her first term as senator and the recent experience of people...
O'BRIEN: Yes, but come on, come on...
BROWNSTEIN: ... where people have sort of rejected...
O'BRIEN: ... she's a politician. She's a politician.
BROWNSTEIN: Now, but you know what, Miles...
O'BRIEN: You're actually believing what she's saying?
BROWNSTEIN: I am believing only because the recent experience of people who tried to break promises like that have been very tough. I mean the best example was Pete Wilson, when he was reelected governor of California in '94, said he was not going to run in '96, tried to do it and then had basically a donor strike. I mean all of his supporters did not want to pony up for that again.
I'd be very surprised if she does. But it does suggest she is a formidable figure in the party for the long run. There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the Senate leadership. I mean she could emerge as a real leading spokesperson for the party, rather remarkably so quickly.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's go to an e-mail. We have quite a few e-mails on Ms. Clinton. She is a person who generates opinion, you might say.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes, she does. Yes.
O'BRIEN: "Hillary is being blasted 24 by seven by right-wing talk radio and that played a big part in the past election, in the 2000 elections. Barring a total blunder by the GOP, she will hold off till 2008, if then." "Are you kidding? She has much" -- this is from another person -- "are you kidding? She has as much a chance as a snowball in hell." That from J.D. in Attleboro. And finally there's, "No, Hillary Clinton should not run for president. This is a free country, not socialist. We cannot afford to have a socialist at the helm." That from Dave Indaor (ph) or somebody to that effect.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know...
O'BRIEN: And now, this is the Hillary Clinton conundrum is that she really brings out tremendous visceral reactions, doesn't she?
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. She's a very polarizing figure. It's very difficult for her to get over the top, as she now stands. But I think it is going to be five years away. You know, where it says there's only two more shopping days till Christmas, but there are only about 12 more shopping months in effect in politics till the primaries begin. I mean, it will be a late start for her. The Iowa caucus is only 13, about 13 months away.
O'BRIEN: Oh, my goodness. Wow.
BROWNSTEIN: And the other Democrats are already out there actively organizing support. Obviously, she has a lot of name I.D., if she wanted to jump in at the end she could do so, more than anybody else. But, again, I don't think we'll see her. I think we'll see people like John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt really be at the top of the field on '04.
O'BRIEN: Let's look at that other tote board, as a matter of fact. This is the tote board for a non-Hillary Clinton selection. And what's interesting about it to me is -- and we don't have the other one up -- but Lieberman with Clinton in the race had 13 percent. So he gains only three. Kerry had 13. He gains three. In other words, what I'm trying to point out, Gephardt has 10, he had nine, it's distributed fairly evenly.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
O'BRIEN: In other words, it's kind of like Hillary and the pips or something, you know?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Miles, you're too young to remember this, but in 1988 they called the Democratic field the seven dwarfs when it was led by Michael Dukakis.
O'BRIEN: I'm not that young. For god's sake.
BROWNSTEIN: Also included...
O'BRIEN: I covered Dukakis.
BROWNSTEIN: Also included Dick Gephardt and Al Gore, a much younger Al Gore. And it would be, to some extent, a field like that, without anyone who is a commanding national figure. Joe Lieberman is the best known because he ran with Al Gore in 2000. John Kerry of Massachusetts is doing, I think, surprisingly well. He's probably done the best at organizing insider support over the past year and he shows up pretty well in these state by state polls that are starting to emerge. And then there's Gephardt, who has been around the longest, ran in '88, and as House minority leader has really good ties to the party constituencies, particularly organized labor.
They would probably make up the top of the field. Tom Daschle, the outgoing Senate majority leader, is a wild card. He is seriously thinking about running. But his luster has been dimmed somewhat by the losing of the Senate and the sense that they did not have a very effect strategy for contrasting with Bush over the past year.
O'BRIEN: All right, well, just based on hair, John Kerry's go it, right?
BROWNSTEIN: I don't know if they vote that way, but yes. Height.
O'BRIEN: They don't.
BROWNSTEIN: Height, height is historical.
O'BRIEN: There you go. He's a tall guy.
BROWNSTEIN: And I think he probably has it on height, too. O'BRIEN: He is a tall guy.
BROWNSTEIN: A taller guy almost always wins in a presidential general election.
O'BRIEN: That is true, isn't it?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it is.
O'BRIEN: That's very interesting.
BROWNSTEIN: Don't know about beards, though.
O'BRIEN: All right, Ron Brownstein, as always, a great pleasure, soothsayer of Washington, "L.A. Times" by day.
We appreciate you being with us.
BROWNSTEIN: Merry Christmas.
O'BRIEN: Same to you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 22, 2002 - 08:11 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Shall we talk politics? Let's talk politics. And we're going to talk about who might get the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. We're not looking too far ahead, are we? Anyway, let's do it anyway.
A new CNN/"Time" poll shows questioned, when registered Democrats are questioned, 30 percent would choose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. Senators Joe Lieberman, John Kerry each got 13 percent.
To help us sort all this out, we go to one of our Washington soothsayers, a man who dispenses sage wisdom by the pound, Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times."
Good to see you, sir.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's look at -- put that tote board up there one more time if you don't mind, with Hillary at the top of it.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
O'BRIEN: If we can look at that for just a moment while we're chatting -- can we do that? I don't know. Hillary Clinton at 30 percent. All right, now, 30 percent, that is, what, that is name recognition, right?
BROWNSTEIN: It is largely name recognition, but it is still, to me, a head turning number, the second one in a week in that vast CNN polling empire. There was another CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll earlier this week, I guess last week now, that had her at 40 percent, a very similar kind of finding.
Really striking, both name identification I think some residual support in the Democratic Party especially for her husband. But I think it is extremely unlikely that she will try to take advantage of this. I mean she said very...
O'BRIEN: Oh, really? Why do you say that.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, she said very clearly that she wasn't going to run in her first term as senator and the recent experience of people...
O'BRIEN: Yes, but come on, come on...
BROWNSTEIN: ... where people have sort of rejected...
O'BRIEN: ... she's a politician. She's a politician.
BROWNSTEIN: Now, but you know what, Miles...
O'BRIEN: You're actually believing what she's saying?
BROWNSTEIN: I am believing only because the recent experience of people who tried to break promises like that have been very tough. I mean the best example was Pete Wilson, when he was reelected governor of California in '94, said he was not going to run in '96, tried to do it and then had basically a donor strike. I mean all of his supporters did not want to pony up for that again.
I'd be very surprised if she does. But it does suggest she is a formidable figure in the party for the long run. There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the Senate leadership. I mean she could emerge as a real leading spokesperson for the party, rather remarkably so quickly.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's go to an e-mail. We have quite a few e-mails on Ms. Clinton. She is a person who generates opinion, you might say.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes, she does. Yes.
O'BRIEN: "Hillary is being blasted 24 by seven by right-wing talk radio and that played a big part in the past election, in the 2000 elections. Barring a total blunder by the GOP, she will hold off till 2008, if then." "Are you kidding? She has much" -- this is from another person -- "are you kidding? She has as much a chance as a snowball in hell." That from J.D. in Attleboro. And finally there's, "No, Hillary Clinton should not run for president. This is a free country, not socialist. We cannot afford to have a socialist at the helm." That from Dave Indaor (ph) or somebody to that effect.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know...
O'BRIEN: And now, this is the Hillary Clinton conundrum is that she really brings out tremendous visceral reactions, doesn't she?
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. She's a very polarizing figure. It's very difficult for her to get over the top, as she now stands. But I think it is going to be five years away. You know, where it says there's only two more shopping days till Christmas, but there are only about 12 more shopping months in effect in politics till the primaries begin. I mean, it will be a late start for her. The Iowa caucus is only 13, about 13 months away.
O'BRIEN: Oh, my goodness. Wow.
BROWNSTEIN: And the other Democrats are already out there actively organizing support. Obviously, she has a lot of name I.D., if she wanted to jump in at the end she could do so, more than anybody else. But, again, I don't think we'll see her. I think we'll see people like John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt really be at the top of the field on '04.
O'BRIEN: Let's look at that other tote board, as a matter of fact. This is the tote board for a non-Hillary Clinton selection. And what's interesting about it to me is -- and we don't have the other one up -- but Lieberman with Clinton in the race had 13 percent. So he gains only three. Kerry had 13. He gains three. In other words, what I'm trying to point out, Gephardt has 10, he had nine, it's distributed fairly evenly.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes.
O'BRIEN: In other words, it's kind of like Hillary and the pips or something, you know?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Miles, you're too young to remember this, but in 1988 they called the Democratic field the seven dwarfs when it was led by Michael Dukakis.
O'BRIEN: I'm not that young. For god's sake.
BROWNSTEIN: Also included...
O'BRIEN: I covered Dukakis.
BROWNSTEIN: Also included Dick Gephardt and Al Gore, a much younger Al Gore. And it would be, to some extent, a field like that, without anyone who is a commanding national figure. Joe Lieberman is the best known because he ran with Al Gore in 2000. John Kerry of Massachusetts is doing, I think, surprisingly well. He's probably done the best at organizing insider support over the past year and he shows up pretty well in these state by state polls that are starting to emerge. And then there's Gephardt, who has been around the longest, ran in '88, and as House minority leader has really good ties to the party constituencies, particularly organized labor.
They would probably make up the top of the field. Tom Daschle, the outgoing Senate majority leader, is a wild card. He is seriously thinking about running. But his luster has been dimmed somewhat by the losing of the Senate and the sense that they did not have a very effect strategy for contrasting with Bush over the past year.
O'BRIEN: All right, well, just based on hair, John Kerry's go it, right?
BROWNSTEIN: I don't know if they vote that way, but yes. Height.
O'BRIEN: They don't.
BROWNSTEIN: Height, height is historical.
O'BRIEN: There you go. He's a tall guy.
BROWNSTEIN: And I think he probably has it on height, too. O'BRIEN: He is a tall guy.
BROWNSTEIN: A taller guy almost always wins in a presidential general election.
O'BRIEN: That is true, isn't it?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it is.
O'BRIEN: That's very interesting.
BROWNSTEIN: Don't know about beards, though.
O'BRIEN: All right, Ron Brownstein, as always, a great pleasure, soothsayer of Washington, "L.A. Times" by day.
We appreciate you being with us.
BROWNSTEIN: Merry Christmas.
O'BRIEN: Same to you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
