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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Rob Sobhani

Aired January 26, 2003 - 07:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CHARLES MOLINEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: Here's a hopeful question. Would Saddam Hussein go into exile to avoid a war? Some U.S. officials hope so and Middle Eastern diplomats may have broached the subject with him. It's a likely possibility.
Joining us from Washington to discuss it is Rob Sobhani of Georgetown University. Good morning and thanks for being with us. This is big hope for avoiding a war, at least for those who think that the U.S. is not going to be dissuaded. Is there really any persuading Saddam Hussein to give up his power?

ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIV.: Charles, I think Saddam Hussein has always viewed himself as the leader of the Arab world. He's seen himself as the leader of the anti-American coalition in the Muslim world. He also sees himself as a leader of the anti-Israel coalition in the Muslim world. And therefore, I think it would be very, very difficult to imagine a scenario where he will accept exile.

It would really be at the last resort, but if I would bet, I would say no.

MOLINEAUX: Is there any message or any messenger that would be persuasive enough to make him think again?

SOBHANI: Unfortunately, there aren't that many people with leverage over Saddam Hussein. One would think, for example, that the Saudis may have some leverage, but the Saudis are equally worried about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. So there really isn't one leader or country with persuasive power over Saddam Hussein. It would have to be a decision by Saddam Hussein and possibly his close family.

MOLINEAUX: What could be persuasive? For example, what kind of messages are the neighbors of Iraq and the rest of the world sending? Are those messages getting clearer as neighbors say perhaps it might be a good idea? Are the messages getting muddied with ambivalence or protest over the prospect of going to war?

SOBHANI: Well, I think the broader issue here, Charles, is that the Arab governments in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, who are calling for exile are very worried about the implications of a war. If the United States goes into Iraq, it could inflame the passions within their countries. And that's what they're really worried for. And that's why they're tabling this offer of exile for Saddam Hussein.

It's not so much to save Saddam Hussein, but it's to save themselves from a potential domestic problem.

MOLINEAUX: Now of course we've got even Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has said that letting Saddam go into exile would be acceptable as a way of avoiding a war. The question is then, if this were to happen, and sounds like you really think it's a long shot, who would take him?

SOBHANI: There are possibilities. Libya is a possibility. Saudi Arabia has had a tradition of accepting leaders. Lastly, he -- the Saudis took in Nawar Sharif (ph) of Pakistan. He could go to an African country. Somalia, Sudan. But once again, the broader issue is if Saddam leaves, the issue still remains his cronies, his family members will still be in power. And it would not really serve the broader purpose, which is to free Iraq, frankly.

MOLINEAUX: What is it that would make Saddam as intransigent as you seem to think that he is? Is he that isolated? Is he that what, obstinate, thinks he can pull it off playing the big gamble, or just betting his life on his own long shot?

SOBHANI: Charles, Saddam Hussein doesn't have a formal education necessarily. He has really rarely set foot out of Iraq. Any and all information he gets is from a small circle of people. He is an isolated person. He doesn't even venture out into the streets of Baghdad much because of fear of assassination.

And therefore, we're dealing with someone who has developed a sense of megalomania, developed a sense that he is invincible, and convinced himself of that. And therefore, it will be very difficult for him, Saddam, to imagine a scenario where he is forced to leave Iraq.

MOLINEAUX: Okay, thank you very much. Appreciate you being with us. That is Rob Sobhani with Georgetown University. Good to have you with us this morning.

SOBHANI: Thank you for having me.

MOLINEAUX: Appreciate it.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 26, 2003 - 07:40   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CHARLES MOLINEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: Here's a hopeful question. Would Saddam Hussein go into exile to avoid a war? Some U.S. officials hope so and Middle Eastern diplomats may have broached the subject with him. It's a likely possibility.
Joining us from Washington to discuss it is Rob Sobhani of Georgetown University. Good morning and thanks for being with us. This is big hope for avoiding a war, at least for those who think that the U.S. is not going to be dissuaded. Is there really any persuading Saddam Hussein to give up his power?

ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIV.: Charles, I think Saddam Hussein has always viewed himself as the leader of the Arab world. He's seen himself as the leader of the anti-American coalition in the Muslim world. He also sees himself as a leader of the anti-Israel coalition in the Muslim world. And therefore, I think it would be very, very difficult to imagine a scenario where he will accept exile.

It would really be at the last resort, but if I would bet, I would say no.

MOLINEAUX: Is there any message or any messenger that would be persuasive enough to make him think again?

SOBHANI: Unfortunately, there aren't that many people with leverage over Saddam Hussein. One would think, for example, that the Saudis may have some leverage, but the Saudis are equally worried about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. So there really isn't one leader or country with persuasive power over Saddam Hussein. It would have to be a decision by Saddam Hussein and possibly his close family.

MOLINEAUX: What could be persuasive? For example, what kind of messages are the neighbors of Iraq and the rest of the world sending? Are those messages getting clearer as neighbors say perhaps it might be a good idea? Are the messages getting muddied with ambivalence or protest over the prospect of going to war?

SOBHANI: Well, I think the broader issue here, Charles, is that the Arab governments in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, who are calling for exile are very worried about the implications of a war. If the United States goes into Iraq, it could inflame the passions within their countries. And that's what they're really worried for. And that's why they're tabling this offer of exile for Saddam Hussein.

It's not so much to save Saddam Hussein, but it's to save themselves from a potential domestic problem.

MOLINEAUX: Now of course we've got even Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has said that letting Saddam go into exile would be acceptable as a way of avoiding a war. The question is then, if this were to happen, and sounds like you really think it's a long shot, who would take him?

SOBHANI: There are possibilities. Libya is a possibility. Saudi Arabia has had a tradition of accepting leaders. Lastly, he -- the Saudis took in Nawar Sharif (ph) of Pakistan. He could go to an African country. Somalia, Sudan. But once again, the broader issue is if Saddam leaves, the issue still remains his cronies, his family members will still be in power. And it would not really serve the broader purpose, which is to free Iraq, frankly.

MOLINEAUX: What is it that would make Saddam as intransigent as you seem to think that he is? Is he that isolated? Is he that what, obstinate, thinks he can pull it off playing the big gamble, or just betting his life on his own long shot?

SOBHANI: Charles, Saddam Hussein doesn't have a formal education necessarily. He has really rarely set foot out of Iraq. Any and all information he gets is from a small circle of people. He is an isolated person. He doesn't even venture out into the streets of Baghdad much because of fear of assassination.

And therefore, we're dealing with someone who has developed a sense of megalomania, developed a sense that he is invincible, and convinced himself of that. And therefore, it will be very difficult for him, Saddam, to imagine a scenario where he is forced to leave Iraq.

MOLINEAUX: Okay, thank you very much. Appreciate you being with us. That is Rob Sobhani with Georgetown University. Good to have you with us this morning.

SOBHANI: Thank you for having me.

MOLINEAUX: Appreciate it.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com