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CNN Sunday Morning

A Look at the Upcoming Elections in Israel

Aired January 26, 2003 - 10:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Homeland security is a key issue in this week's election in Israel. Voters will select a prime minister and a party to lead their government 28 months into the current Palestinian uprising. CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider has left the confines of Washington for Jerusalem, and he's watching the run-up to Tuesday's vote.
Hi, Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Fredricka. Actually, I'm in Tel Aviv and there's not a whole lot of suspense about who's going to be prime minister after Tuesday's election. That's almost certain to be Ariel Sharon, the current president. The question is what kind of government will he be, right wing or centrist? Will it be narrowly based or a broad based national coalition? That all depends on how each party does in the election on Tuesday. And boy, there are a lot of parties here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER (voice-over): On Tuesday, Israelis will vote for political parties, not for candidates. And boy, do they have a choice. With 28 parties on the ballot, there's a party for virtually everyone. In a parliament of 120, only four parties are expected to get more than 10 seats each, with a coalition of 61 needed for control.

Likely to come in first, the right wing Likud Party, the party of Menahem Begin and Benjamin Netanyahu and now Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Likud's core principle is nationalism. It takes hard-line positions on security issues. Although Sharon says he'd be willing to make painful concessions to the Palestinians in exchange for peace.

The Labor Party, the party of David Ben-Gurion and Golda Mehr, the largest in the outgoing parliament, is unlikely to remain in first place much longer.

(on camera): The Labor Party is Israel's old establishment, in power for the country's first 30 years. It has deep roots in European socialism. But here in Israel, like everywhere else, socialism is in decline. Today's Labor Party has a different identity, the peace party, the party of Yitzhak Rabin.

(voice-over): Now labor is facing a strong challenge from the libertarian Shinui Party, which is deeply committed to personal freedom and opposed to Israel's powerful religious right.

Israel is officially a Jewish state where ultra orthodox Jews have always gotten special subsidies and privileges. Shinui's position, end them.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the religious Shas Party, which represents disadvantaged Jews from non-European backgrounds. The party is more or less a political machine, offering jobs schools, housing and welfare services to its supporters, led by, of all people, a rabbi.

So you've got Labor on the left versus Likud on the right, plus the religious Shas versus the secular Shinui, pretty complicated politics for a small country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Sharon's preferred option would probably be to reach out to the Labor Party, but that would split the Labor Party, some would go into government with Sharon, some would refuse. He could also try to include the secular Shinui Party in his government, but they would not serve in any coalition with religious parties. That would heighten religious tensions. He could try to create a right- wing government that would be narrowly based. It would be inflexible and it would not last very long.

Fredricka, those are very tough choices for Sharon.

WHITFIELD: And Bill, given such a complicated political scenario it seemed that the Israeli state would be rather confused itself about what kind of state it wants to be.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Exactly. There are very mixed feelings here in Israel. They want security, which they believe Sharon can provide, but they all want to see a path to peace. They generally agree with the Labor Party's ideas about how to get to peace, but they fear that the labor alternative would act too quickly and endanger the country's security. So what they're really looking for a government of national unity. It's hard to get that when you have is a choice of 28 parties, all of them squabbling with each other.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill Schneider from Tel Aviv. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 26, 2003 - 10:31   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Homeland security is a key issue in this week's election in Israel. Voters will select a prime minister and a party to lead their government 28 months into the current Palestinian uprising. CNN's senior political analyst, Bill Schneider has left the confines of Washington for Jerusalem, and he's watching the run-up to Tuesday's vote.
Hi, Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Fredricka. Actually, I'm in Tel Aviv and there's not a whole lot of suspense about who's going to be prime minister after Tuesday's election. That's almost certain to be Ariel Sharon, the current president. The question is what kind of government will he be, right wing or centrist? Will it be narrowly based or a broad based national coalition? That all depends on how each party does in the election on Tuesday. And boy, there are a lot of parties here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER (voice-over): On Tuesday, Israelis will vote for political parties, not for candidates. And boy, do they have a choice. With 28 parties on the ballot, there's a party for virtually everyone. In a parliament of 120, only four parties are expected to get more than 10 seats each, with a coalition of 61 needed for control.

Likely to come in first, the right wing Likud Party, the party of Menahem Begin and Benjamin Netanyahu and now Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Likud's core principle is nationalism. It takes hard-line positions on security issues. Although Sharon says he'd be willing to make painful concessions to the Palestinians in exchange for peace.

The Labor Party, the party of David Ben-Gurion and Golda Mehr, the largest in the outgoing parliament, is unlikely to remain in first place much longer.

(on camera): The Labor Party is Israel's old establishment, in power for the country's first 30 years. It has deep roots in European socialism. But here in Israel, like everywhere else, socialism is in decline. Today's Labor Party has a different identity, the peace party, the party of Yitzhak Rabin.

(voice-over): Now labor is facing a strong challenge from the libertarian Shinui Party, which is deeply committed to personal freedom and opposed to Israel's powerful religious right.

Israel is officially a Jewish state where ultra orthodox Jews have always gotten special subsidies and privileges. Shinui's position, end them.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the religious Shas Party, which represents disadvantaged Jews from non-European backgrounds. The party is more or less a political machine, offering jobs schools, housing and welfare services to its supporters, led by, of all people, a rabbi.

So you've got Labor on the left versus Likud on the right, plus the religious Shas versus the secular Shinui, pretty complicated politics for a small country.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Sharon's preferred option would probably be to reach out to the Labor Party, but that would split the Labor Party, some would go into government with Sharon, some would refuse. He could also try to include the secular Shinui Party in his government, but they would not serve in any coalition with religious parties. That would heighten religious tensions. He could try to create a right- wing government that would be narrowly based. It would be inflexible and it would not last very long.

Fredricka, those are very tough choices for Sharon.

WHITFIELD: And Bill, given such a complicated political scenario it seemed that the Israeli state would be rather confused itself about what kind of state it wants to be.

SCHNEIDER: That's right. Exactly. There are very mixed feelings here in Israel. They want security, which they believe Sharon can provide, but they all want to see a path to peace. They generally agree with the Labor Party's ideas about how to get to peace, but they fear that the labor alternative would act too quickly and endanger the country's security. So what they're really looking for a government of national unity. It's hard to get that when you have is a choice of 28 parties, all of them squabbling with each other.

WHITFIELD: All right, Bill Schneider from Tel Aviv. Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com