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CNN Sunday Morning

Insight & Input -- Showdown: Iraq

Aired February 09, 2003 - 09:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We'll take your e-mail questions and comments, in our segment formerly known as "Reporters Notebook."
Joining us this morning to bat around some issues, CNN military analyst Major General Don Shepperd in Tucson, Arizona. Nic Robertson in Baghdad, Iraq. And CNN's Richard Roth following developments from Larnaca, Cyprus. Good to have you all with us.

Let's get right to the e-mails, gentlemen; we don't have much time this morning. Travis Chase of Calgary, Alberta, has this one. Let's send it to Richard. "I just want to know why the U.N. is so important the impending war on Iraq. This does not really seem like an organization that the US should deal with."

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR U.N. CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, the United States is the biggest player in the United Nations. It can get its way on a lot of issues, though lately it's run into a great deal of trouble, perhaps because of style, a lot of other reasons. The world may look to the United Nations with a lot more significance than the United States.

To the world, which is many countries, a lot less powerful than the United States, the U.N. is the big show; it's the international arena where every country can play a role. And it's for that reason the U.N. certainly is counted on by a lot of people around the world. It's kept the peace. There hasn't been a world war. That was the reason it was founded after World War II.

There is no other organization like it where diplomats from countries which don't always agree can talk. It's the forum, it's the venting point. But at some point, at some times the United Nations members are going to have to act on their own, even if the U.N. doesn't want to do something, or else it does lose relevance.

O'BRIEN: Let's get another e-mail, this one we'll send to Nic. I apologize, my margins are messed up, here. Maybe if the control room could just take that full-screen; I apologize. Peter J. Wayman in Providence, Rhode Island, has this.

"I heard that the food distribution system is very centralized in Iraq due to the oil for food sanctions program. Presumably this will fall apart if war breaks out. How long before the people of Iraq, and therefore the US, faces a serious humanitarian crisis?"

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The food distribution system is centralized. The Iraqi government here controls it through food rationing. It gets the food through the oil for food program. What humanitarian organizations here fear is exactly that.

Once the distribution system falls apart -- and here we're talking about vehicles driving from ports to cities, vehicles driving from city markets, city shops out to the smaller suburbs of the cities, out to the smaller communities. When that falls apart, then people will go short of food. The way the system works right now, people get two months of food at one time. Now, people could be at the end of that period of two months, in the middle of it. The effect is going to be fairly immediate.

The real concern goes beyond the food, however. Water, electricity, all these issues humanitarian organizations are very concerned about, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much, Nic. Let's get General Shepperd in the mix. Go ahead, Heidi.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: General Shepperd, we have one from Jamie Wolk, Pembroke Pines in Florida.

He says, "I was wondering how closely the military planners use the new moon to plan for any attack. The Gulf War was begun at the peak of the new moon." Do you know?

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, Heidi. Those type of things are minor factors. We have the ability to fight day and night. We have overwhelming force in all of our services there. Night vision goggles are very, important to us. And the moon illumination is a factor we take into our planning if everything goes our way and we have the ability to launch the operations on our schedule. You must react, however, to the enemy. So although it's a factor, it's not an overriding factor, Heidi.

O'BRIEN: All right. Richard Roth, here's one from Dave Dunn.

"If the Germans and French want to provide the peacekeepers as targets for the locals in Iraq," this is part of that proposal we've been talking about this morning, "then maybe we should follow their advice. Let them put their troops where their diplomacy is."

ROTH: Well, those countries are ready to do that, but who knows what would happen if the U.S. and others attack. They would certainly be at risk there. In Bosnia, we had U.N. peacekeepers tied to trees. A lot could happen with peacekeepers there with a messy mandate, as we saw during the Bosnia crisis. But that person has an interesting view, and I'm sure a lot of people feel that way around the world.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's get another one in, and get Nic involved in this one as I scroll it up.

From James in Baltimore, we have this: "How much of a threat is Iraq to its neighbors and the US, when the Iraqi government only controls one-third of its country, its million man army has been reduced by almost two-thirds, and two-thirds of Iraqi territory is monitored daily by US and British forces for over 10 years?" -- Nic.

ROBERTSON: Well, threat is a function of ability and intent, and as he said, the ability has declined over the last decade or so. What is the intent? We have seen in the 1980, Iraq going to war for eight years with its neighbor, Iran. 1990, Iraq invading Kuwait, and the assessment of many, therefore, is the intent is still there. How much of that capability is still there? That's what the weapons inspectors are here to find out. It's very difficult to calculate if Iraq, when its back is really pushed up against the wall, will attack. They did attack Israel during the Gulf War. They are still capable, it seems.

COLLINS: Nic, thank you. General Shepperd, another one for you. Speaking about the satellite images we saw earlier in the week.

"If the satellites picked up Iraq moving everything before the U.N. inspectors got there, did they also see where they were moved to? Have the U.N. inspectors gone to the underground city and palaces?"

SHEPPERD: Good guess that you'd find a great deal of weapons of mass destruction capability hidden underground if, indeed, they have it. We were not told where the stuff that was shown was moved. Nor will we be told. One of the problems that we have in showing this type of intelligence is to reveal our methods and sources. And so we actually reveal very, very little in those revelations by Secretary Powell. I can't tell you for sure if we know where things are, but that's one of the things we want the inspectors to find out, is where is it actually. And 100 inspectors is probably not going to find that, Heidi.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's send one back to Richard. Dwayne Winkler from Farragut, Tennessee.

"If a second resolution in the Security Council receives a strong majority, but is not adopted due to one of the nays being from a permanent member," in other words, a veto. "Should the world look upon this as a majority of nations wanting something done?"

ROTH: Well, that's hard to say, Dwayne in Tennessee. If a resolution was vetoed down, we don't know what would happen after that. You know, the U.N. is based on the fact that one country can't attack another. The U.S. preemptive strategy now sort of challenges the U.N. theory and puts everything into play. I don't think a lot of people in the United States would be happy if Russia attacked Guatemala, or something like that. It seems easy to view it from here, from the United States, that is, but around the world, people look at it as a big challenge to the United Nations charter.

COLLINS: Nic Robertson, one now for you.

"Does Hans Blix have his own security? How does the U.N. guarantee his safety?" Coming to us from Robert in Omaha.

ROBERTSON: Well, he does have a security team here. The U.N. inspectors at their base in Baghdad do have a small security detail. And they're in evidence whenever Hans Blix goes around, but it's not very visible. It's very low key. They're dressed in suits. You wouldn't perhaps know, if you didn't recognize them, that they were security.

O'BRIEN: All right. General Shepperd, Alex in Washington has this.

"The Security Council may be reluctant to withdraw its inspectors, as such a withdrawal would be an obvious green light for the pending attack. Would then the remaining U.N. inspectors in Iraq present a problem for the contemplated US onslaught?"

SHEPPERD: Well, obviously, civilian casualties, especially of the U.N. inspectors, would be of major concern to us. It's very clear that if the United States intends to go to war, that we would demand that the inspectors be removed before we did it, Miles. That's another message that combat is imminent. You can be sure that the United States will say, please get those inspectors out, and demand that they come out, before they start any hostilities.

O'BRIEN: Gentlemen, thank you very much. Richard Roth, General Don Shepperd, Nic Robertson, appreciate you taking those questions for us, and we appreciate your input on our program, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired February 9, 2003 - 09:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We'll take your e-mail questions and comments, in our segment formerly known as "Reporters Notebook."
Joining us this morning to bat around some issues, CNN military analyst Major General Don Shepperd in Tucson, Arizona. Nic Robertson in Baghdad, Iraq. And CNN's Richard Roth following developments from Larnaca, Cyprus. Good to have you all with us.

Let's get right to the e-mails, gentlemen; we don't have much time this morning. Travis Chase of Calgary, Alberta, has this one. Let's send it to Richard. "I just want to know why the U.N. is so important the impending war on Iraq. This does not really seem like an organization that the US should deal with."

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SENIOR U.N. CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, the United States is the biggest player in the United Nations. It can get its way on a lot of issues, though lately it's run into a great deal of trouble, perhaps because of style, a lot of other reasons. The world may look to the United Nations with a lot more significance than the United States.

To the world, which is many countries, a lot less powerful than the United States, the U.N. is the big show; it's the international arena where every country can play a role. And it's for that reason the U.N. certainly is counted on by a lot of people around the world. It's kept the peace. There hasn't been a world war. That was the reason it was founded after World War II.

There is no other organization like it where diplomats from countries which don't always agree can talk. It's the forum, it's the venting point. But at some point, at some times the United Nations members are going to have to act on their own, even if the U.N. doesn't want to do something, or else it does lose relevance.

O'BRIEN: Let's get another e-mail, this one we'll send to Nic. I apologize, my margins are messed up, here. Maybe if the control room could just take that full-screen; I apologize. Peter J. Wayman in Providence, Rhode Island, has this.

"I heard that the food distribution system is very centralized in Iraq due to the oil for food sanctions program. Presumably this will fall apart if war breaks out. How long before the people of Iraq, and therefore the US, faces a serious humanitarian crisis?"

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The food distribution system is centralized. The Iraqi government here controls it through food rationing. It gets the food through the oil for food program. What humanitarian organizations here fear is exactly that.

Once the distribution system falls apart -- and here we're talking about vehicles driving from ports to cities, vehicles driving from city markets, city shops out to the smaller suburbs of the cities, out to the smaller communities. When that falls apart, then people will go short of food. The way the system works right now, people get two months of food at one time. Now, people could be at the end of that period of two months, in the middle of it. The effect is going to be fairly immediate.

The real concern goes beyond the food, however. Water, electricity, all these issues humanitarian organizations are very concerned about, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much, Nic. Let's get General Shepperd in the mix. Go ahead, Heidi.

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: General Shepperd, we have one from Jamie Wolk, Pembroke Pines in Florida.

He says, "I was wondering how closely the military planners use the new moon to plan for any attack. The Gulf War was begun at the peak of the new moon." Do you know?

MAJ. GEN. DON SHEPPERD (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, Heidi. Those type of things are minor factors. We have the ability to fight day and night. We have overwhelming force in all of our services there. Night vision goggles are very, important to us. And the moon illumination is a factor we take into our planning if everything goes our way and we have the ability to launch the operations on our schedule. You must react, however, to the enemy. So although it's a factor, it's not an overriding factor, Heidi.

O'BRIEN: All right. Richard Roth, here's one from Dave Dunn.

"If the Germans and French want to provide the peacekeepers as targets for the locals in Iraq," this is part of that proposal we've been talking about this morning, "then maybe we should follow their advice. Let them put their troops where their diplomacy is."

ROTH: Well, those countries are ready to do that, but who knows what would happen if the U.S. and others attack. They would certainly be at risk there. In Bosnia, we had U.N. peacekeepers tied to trees. A lot could happen with peacekeepers there with a messy mandate, as we saw during the Bosnia crisis. But that person has an interesting view, and I'm sure a lot of people feel that way around the world.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's get another one in, and get Nic involved in this one as I scroll it up.

From James in Baltimore, we have this: "How much of a threat is Iraq to its neighbors and the US, when the Iraqi government only controls one-third of its country, its million man army has been reduced by almost two-thirds, and two-thirds of Iraqi territory is monitored daily by US and British forces for over 10 years?" -- Nic.

ROBERTSON: Well, threat is a function of ability and intent, and as he said, the ability has declined over the last decade or so. What is the intent? We have seen in the 1980, Iraq going to war for eight years with its neighbor, Iran. 1990, Iraq invading Kuwait, and the assessment of many, therefore, is the intent is still there. How much of that capability is still there? That's what the weapons inspectors are here to find out. It's very difficult to calculate if Iraq, when its back is really pushed up against the wall, will attack. They did attack Israel during the Gulf War. They are still capable, it seems.

COLLINS: Nic, thank you. General Shepperd, another one for you. Speaking about the satellite images we saw earlier in the week.

"If the satellites picked up Iraq moving everything before the U.N. inspectors got there, did they also see where they were moved to? Have the U.N. inspectors gone to the underground city and palaces?"

SHEPPERD: Good guess that you'd find a great deal of weapons of mass destruction capability hidden underground if, indeed, they have it. We were not told where the stuff that was shown was moved. Nor will we be told. One of the problems that we have in showing this type of intelligence is to reveal our methods and sources. And so we actually reveal very, very little in those revelations by Secretary Powell. I can't tell you for sure if we know where things are, but that's one of the things we want the inspectors to find out, is where is it actually. And 100 inspectors is probably not going to find that, Heidi.

O'BRIEN: All right, let's send one back to Richard. Dwayne Winkler from Farragut, Tennessee.

"If a second resolution in the Security Council receives a strong majority, but is not adopted due to one of the nays being from a permanent member," in other words, a veto. "Should the world look upon this as a majority of nations wanting something done?"

ROTH: Well, that's hard to say, Dwayne in Tennessee. If a resolution was vetoed down, we don't know what would happen after that. You know, the U.N. is based on the fact that one country can't attack another. The U.S. preemptive strategy now sort of challenges the U.N. theory and puts everything into play. I don't think a lot of people in the United States would be happy if Russia attacked Guatemala, or something like that. It seems easy to view it from here, from the United States, that is, but around the world, people look at it as a big challenge to the United Nations charter.

COLLINS: Nic Robertson, one now for you.

"Does Hans Blix have his own security? How does the U.N. guarantee his safety?" Coming to us from Robert in Omaha.

ROBERTSON: Well, he does have a security team here. The U.N. inspectors at their base in Baghdad do have a small security detail. And they're in evidence whenever Hans Blix goes around, but it's not very visible. It's very low key. They're dressed in suits. You wouldn't perhaps know, if you didn't recognize them, that they were security.

O'BRIEN: All right. General Shepperd, Alex in Washington has this.

"The Security Council may be reluctant to withdraw its inspectors, as such a withdrawal would be an obvious green light for the pending attack. Would then the remaining U.N. inspectors in Iraq present a problem for the contemplated US onslaught?"

SHEPPERD: Well, obviously, civilian casualties, especially of the U.N. inspectors, would be of major concern to us. It's very clear that if the United States intends to go to war, that we would demand that the inspectors be removed before we did it, Miles. That's another message that combat is imminent. You can be sure that the United States will say, please get those inspectors out, and demand that they come out, before they start any hostilities.

O'BRIEN: Gentlemen, thank you very much. Richard Roth, General Don Shepperd, Nic Robertson, appreciate you taking those questions for us, and we appreciate your input on our program, as always.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com