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CNN Sunday Morning
Interview With Daniel Poneman
Aired February 23, 2003 - 09:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN ANCHOR: Secretary of State Colin Powell is making diplomatic moves on the other side of the globe. He's in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials, and Iraq and North Korea are at the very top of his agenda.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: We agree that the North must verifiably and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Unless North Korea ends its program, it cannot expect the benefits of relationships with the outside world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: Joining us from Washington to talk about Powell's trip is Daniel Poneman. He is the former national security officer who knows firsthand the difficulties Powell faces on North Korea and Iraq. Welcome, thank you. You, of course, former official for both the Clinton and first Bush administrations. You were involved in those 1994 talks on North Korea. What can Powell hope to accomplish in his stop now, now in China?
DANIEL PONEMAN, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICER: Well, it's critical that we work very, very closely with China. And I think the best thing that the secretary could hope for out of these meetings would be to carry with him to Seoul, to the inauguration of the new president a common message that China will work with us, and with the South Koreans and the Japanese to try to contain this crisis.
KARL: Now, China, has so far taken the same position the North Koreans have, which is that this should be something that is dealt with between the United States and North Korea. Why is that? Why is there so much resistance in that part of the world to what the U.S. wants, which is to bring this dispute before the U.N. Security Council or to bring it to a multilateral conclusion?
PONEMAN: Well, I think there are a number of factors at play. I think it's really important, Jonathan, to separate the strategic from the tactical here. The strategic issue is stopping plutonium in North Korea. And indeed there is no division on that subject between the Chinese, the United States and the Japanese and the others.
The question of what the forum is, whether it's multilateral or bilateral, is a question of, if you will, Alfonse and Gaston. Everybody seems to want somebody else to go first. In my view, it would be a major blunder if we get hung up on the formalities if it's two plus four or five plus two or one on one, I think we have got to get in direct talks with the North Koreans on the substance, and that's the plutonium.
KARL: Now if Powell gets some assistance, gets a receptive audience in Beijing, how much influence does Beijing really have over North Korea? We hear over and over again, you know, close allies, but there's been tension over the years between the two countries. Does China really have much control over what North Korea does?
PONEMAN: There has been tension and I'd say they don't have control. The way I'd put it, Jonathan, would be to say China has more influence than anybody else does, but they still don't have any kind of a veto or any kind of pure directive authority over Pyongyang. But I think what would be critical is if we were able to forge a common position on, again, our strategic objectives, if the Chinese would be willing to exert some leverage in that direction, perhaps threatening not to save North Korea if we get to the U.N. Security Council on the sanctions resolution or indicating that if we do move to sanctions, that Pyongyang could not count on Beijing to save them. I think that's what China, frankly, did quite quietly in 1994. I think that's the best we could hope for today.
KARL: OK, obviously, Powell needs to talk about Iraq as well. China is one of the permanent members of the Security Council, can veto the new resolution the U.S. is trying to push through on Iraq. What I'm hearing is that the expectation is that China would not actually veto a new resolution, but would be likely to abstain. Is that your understanding? I mean, is that one likely scenario?
PONEMAN: That is one likely scenario, and as long as either on the Iraq or on the North Korean issue, an abstention is what we get, I think that's something that we can live with and something that we can work with.
KARL: And why is it that China seems willing to go along, even if it's just abstaining, but why is China not seen as firm in its opposition as, say, the French or even the Russians?
PONEMAN: On Iraq or on Korea?
KARL: On Iraq.
PONEMAN: Well, I think that China has always played a very careful and a very cautious diplomatic game. I think at the end of the day, they, again, share a broad sense of wishing to contain proliferation, which is actually quite different from the earlier days of Mao Zedong. At the same time, I think that they're hesitant about seeing the United States unfettered and just continuing along a unilateralist path. So frankly, I think they're trying to keep their powder a little bit dry and see which way the chips fall.
KARL: OK, well, clearly high stakes for Colin Powell now in China. Thank you very much, Daniel Poneman, joining us from Washington.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 23, 2003 - 09:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN ANCHOR: Secretary of State Colin Powell is making diplomatic moves on the other side of the globe. He's in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials, and Iraq and North Korea are at the very top of his agenda.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: We agree that the North must verifiably and irreversibly dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Unless North Korea ends its program, it cannot expect the benefits of relationships with the outside world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KARL: Joining us from Washington to talk about Powell's trip is Daniel Poneman. He is the former national security officer who knows firsthand the difficulties Powell faces on North Korea and Iraq. Welcome, thank you. You, of course, former official for both the Clinton and first Bush administrations. You were involved in those 1994 talks on North Korea. What can Powell hope to accomplish in his stop now, now in China?
DANIEL PONEMAN, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICER: Well, it's critical that we work very, very closely with China. And I think the best thing that the secretary could hope for out of these meetings would be to carry with him to Seoul, to the inauguration of the new president a common message that China will work with us, and with the South Koreans and the Japanese to try to contain this crisis.
KARL: Now, China, has so far taken the same position the North Koreans have, which is that this should be something that is dealt with between the United States and North Korea. Why is that? Why is there so much resistance in that part of the world to what the U.S. wants, which is to bring this dispute before the U.N. Security Council or to bring it to a multilateral conclusion?
PONEMAN: Well, I think there are a number of factors at play. I think it's really important, Jonathan, to separate the strategic from the tactical here. The strategic issue is stopping plutonium in North Korea. And indeed there is no division on that subject between the Chinese, the United States and the Japanese and the others.
The question of what the forum is, whether it's multilateral or bilateral, is a question of, if you will, Alfonse and Gaston. Everybody seems to want somebody else to go first. In my view, it would be a major blunder if we get hung up on the formalities if it's two plus four or five plus two or one on one, I think we have got to get in direct talks with the North Koreans on the substance, and that's the plutonium.
KARL: Now if Powell gets some assistance, gets a receptive audience in Beijing, how much influence does Beijing really have over North Korea? We hear over and over again, you know, close allies, but there's been tension over the years between the two countries. Does China really have much control over what North Korea does?
PONEMAN: There has been tension and I'd say they don't have control. The way I'd put it, Jonathan, would be to say China has more influence than anybody else does, but they still don't have any kind of a veto or any kind of pure directive authority over Pyongyang. But I think what would be critical is if we were able to forge a common position on, again, our strategic objectives, if the Chinese would be willing to exert some leverage in that direction, perhaps threatening not to save North Korea if we get to the U.N. Security Council on the sanctions resolution or indicating that if we do move to sanctions, that Pyongyang could not count on Beijing to save them. I think that's what China, frankly, did quite quietly in 1994. I think that's the best we could hope for today.
KARL: OK, obviously, Powell needs to talk about Iraq as well. China is one of the permanent members of the Security Council, can veto the new resolution the U.S. is trying to push through on Iraq. What I'm hearing is that the expectation is that China would not actually veto a new resolution, but would be likely to abstain. Is that your understanding? I mean, is that one likely scenario?
PONEMAN: That is one likely scenario, and as long as either on the Iraq or on the North Korean issue, an abstention is what we get, I think that's something that we can live with and something that we can work with.
KARL: And why is it that China seems willing to go along, even if it's just abstaining, but why is China not seen as firm in its opposition as, say, the French or even the Russians?
PONEMAN: On Iraq or on Korea?
KARL: On Iraq.
PONEMAN: Well, I think that China has always played a very careful and a very cautious diplomatic game. I think at the end of the day, they, again, share a broad sense of wishing to contain proliferation, which is actually quite different from the earlier days of Mao Zedong. At the same time, I think that they're hesitant about seeing the United States unfettered and just continuing along a unilateralist path. So frankly, I think they're trying to keep their powder a little bit dry and see which way the chips fall.
KARL: OK, well, clearly high stakes for Colin Powell now in China. Thank you very much, Daniel Poneman, joining us from Washington.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
