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CNN Sunday Morning

Can U.S. Fight War With Iraq Without Turkish Support?

Aired March 02, 2003 - 07:22   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: If there is a war against Iraq, how will the U.S. fight it, if American troops can't set up a base in Turkey, Iraq's northern neighbor? This is something that just happened yesterday with Turkey's parliament rejecting that notion. So, joining us now with some insight is CNN military analyst retired Brigadier General David Grange. Good morning to you, sir, thanks for being with us.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning to you.

COLLINS: Tell me, right off the top here, how big of a blow is this to military strategy?

GRANGE: Well, I don't know if it's a done deal, but I think we're pushing against some time here, and the reason I say that is because a lot of time was wasted waiting for a decision. And it just goes to show you that politics drives war. The military doesn't drive war, but it's politics. And what it does now is it delays getting forces in place that are necessary to have the optimum force to do any kind of mission, if called upon, and the military has to be ready to go, whether they are, you know, it's going to happen or not, they have to be ready.

COLLINS: Right, and the last time you and I spoke, general, we were talking about the strategy, of course, of coming in from all sides, the north and the south, but we also talked about these guys always have alternatives. Can you kind of maybe set up a scenario of what some of those alternatives might be?

GRANGE: Yes, and I like to just talk in general terms on that, if that's all right, and the -- our armed forces has capabilities to force its way into hostile territory, in other words not launching from a friendly base, but going right into a combat situation. Probably the capability is much -- it's greater than any other nation in the world, and a -- but it'll take some time, and there's some risk to it, it takes some time to build up the optimum ground and air combination that you would want for this kind of a mission. But it can be done, and that plan, I'm sure, has already been worked on, probably even rehearsed and is in place, but it's not the optimum.

COLLINS: It's not the optimum. And tell me, then, what does this do, if anything to maybe the confidence level, not only of Washington and the actually military strategists, but then to troops. Does it filter down, and do they start saying, yikes, this might not be as easy as we first thought? GRANGE: I think the confidence level with the troops is there. They -- they're going to be, they were going to feel very strong about the alternate course of action. That's not the problem. The problem's going to be that actually this would hurt Turkey. And I say that because the advantage of having American troops come out of Turkey is that the American troops or any other coalition troops can control some of the friction that may result between, let's say, the Turks and the Kurds. It'll also cause the operation to happen much quicker than if you only came from one other direction, or used the less than optimum option that we discussed earlier.

So, it may be more people will die, more civilians will be harmed. It's just -- it would be better for Turkey if the optimum course of action was supported.

COLLINS: And along those same lines, Washington was at least somewhat interested in having a Muslim ally, and they are also saying this morning, that they are certainly still allies, that the relationship has not been damaged. How do you feel about that?

GRANGE: Good point. All the -- you know, you take Oman, you take UAE, you take Bahrain, you take Qatar, you take Kuwait, even Turkey, we're flying out of Turkey. I think those options to launch aircraft, and as well as helicopters, you know, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters out of Turkey is still there. So, I believe that you still have a multitude of Arab support, Muslim support.

COLLINS: And also, when you offer up a country about an estimated $30 billion in order to help protect them in loan guarantees, and in grants, it does show how important this option was -- doesn't it?

GRANGE: Well, you know, what's going to happen, I think is that if Turkey does not support the plan that was proposed to them, some of the concerns they have with their economy, some of the concerns they have with refugees will be magnified, because we're not using this optimum course of action.

COLLINS: Right.

GRANGE: So, in fact, economically I think it's going to hurt them worse than the other option.

COLLINS: Right. All right, much more to come on this, I am sure. Brigadier General David Grange, we certainly appreciate your insight once again, this morning.

GRANGE: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired March 2, 2003 - 07:22   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: If there is a war against Iraq, how will the U.S. fight it, if American troops can't set up a base in Turkey, Iraq's northern neighbor? This is something that just happened yesterday with Turkey's parliament rejecting that notion. So, joining us now with some insight is CNN military analyst retired Brigadier General David Grange. Good morning to you, sir, thanks for being with us.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning to you.

COLLINS: Tell me, right off the top here, how big of a blow is this to military strategy?

GRANGE: Well, I don't know if it's a done deal, but I think we're pushing against some time here, and the reason I say that is because a lot of time was wasted waiting for a decision. And it just goes to show you that politics drives war. The military doesn't drive war, but it's politics. And what it does now is it delays getting forces in place that are necessary to have the optimum force to do any kind of mission, if called upon, and the military has to be ready to go, whether they are, you know, it's going to happen or not, they have to be ready.

COLLINS: Right, and the last time you and I spoke, general, we were talking about the strategy, of course, of coming in from all sides, the north and the south, but we also talked about these guys always have alternatives. Can you kind of maybe set up a scenario of what some of those alternatives might be?

GRANGE: Yes, and I like to just talk in general terms on that, if that's all right, and the -- our armed forces has capabilities to force its way into hostile territory, in other words not launching from a friendly base, but going right into a combat situation. Probably the capability is much -- it's greater than any other nation in the world, and a -- but it'll take some time, and there's some risk to it, it takes some time to build up the optimum ground and air combination that you would want for this kind of a mission. But it can be done, and that plan, I'm sure, has already been worked on, probably even rehearsed and is in place, but it's not the optimum.

COLLINS: It's not the optimum. And tell me, then, what does this do, if anything to maybe the confidence level, not only of Washington and the actually military strategists, but then to troops. Does it filter down, and do they start saying, yikes, this might not be as easy as we first thought? GRANGE: I think the confidence level with the troops is there. They -- they're going to be, they were going to feel very strong about the alternate course of action. That's not the problem. The problem's going to be that actually this would hurt Turkey. And I say that because the advantage of having American troops come out of Turkey is that the American troops or any other coalition troops can control some of the friction that may result between, let's say, the Turks and the Kurds. It'll also cause the operation to happen much quicker than if you only came from one other direction, or used the less than optimum option that we discussed earlier.

So, it may be more people will die, more civilians will be harmed. It's just -- it would be better for Turkey if the optimum course of action was supported.

COLLINS: And along those same lines, Washington was at least somewhat interested in having a Muslim ally, and they are also saying this morning, that they are certainly still allies, that the relationship has not been damaged. How do you feel about that?

GRANGE: Good point. All the -- you know, you take Oman, you take UAE, you take Bahrain, you take Qatar, you take Kuwait, even Turkey, we're flying out of Turkey. I think those options to launch aircraft, and as well as helicopters, you know, fixed wing aircraft and helicopters out of Turkey is still there. So, I believe that you still have a multitude of Arab support, Muslim support.

COLLINS: And also, when you offer up a country about an estimated $30 billion in order to help protect them in loan guarantees, and in grants, it does show how important this option was -- doesn't it?

GRANGE: Well, you know, what's going to happen, I think is that if Turkey does not support the plan that was proposed to them, some of the concerns they have with their economy, some of the concerns they have with refugees will be magnified, because we're not using this optimum course of action.

COLLINS: Right.

GRANGE: So, in fact, economically I think it's going to hurt them worse than the other option.

COLLINS: Right. All right, much more to come on this, I am sure. Brigadier General David Grange, we certainly appreciate your insight once again, this morning.

GRANGE: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com