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CNN Sunday Morning
Interview With Victor Cha
Aired April 27, 2003 - 08:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: We talked a bit earlier about those high-level talks between North and South Korea on the North's nuclear weapons program with the North now claiming it has a nuclear arsenal and the ability to make more. The discussions come at a critical time.
For some insight, we turn Victor Cha of Georgetown University. He is the author of the forthcoming book, "Nuclear North Korea, A Debate on Strategies of Engagement. "
Thank you for joining us, sir.
VICTOR CHA, PROFESSOR, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: My pleasure.
ARENA: Well, let's just start with the security risk to the United States. We have heard what North Korea has said, that it has nuclear weapons. That it is willing to prove it. How much of a security risk is that on a scale of one to ten to the U.S. and its citizens?
CHA: Well, I don't know if I can scale it for you, but I can certainly tell you that it is a security risk. I mean, traditionally, the risk that North Korea has posed to the United States has been the risk it posed to U.S. allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan. And I think with the revelations, in the talks in Beijing last week that North Korea says it has nuclear weapons, this becomes much more of a homeland security threat and risk to the United States. I mean, the North Korea negotiator allegedly said to the lead U.S. negotiator; we could test these or we can sell them. It depends on what the United States does next. And that translates to a direct homeland security problem.
ARENA: Now, what is the bigger threat if they actually launched a missile or sell it to someone else in your estimation?
CHA: Think probably -- we've seen them launch missiles in the past. Their last launch was in August of 1998. That was a failed three-staged launch, which indicated a longer-range missile than we thought North Korea was capable of developing.
But I think the real concern in terms of the ballistic missile technology is the sale of that technology to other countries or to third parties. I mean I think that is the primary concern at this point. Unless they do another missile test that demonstrates a much longer-range capability. ARENA: We know that China obviously playing a very important role. A very important economic ally of North Korea's. What -- what role does China play at this point, of course, we heard from some officials saying they felt alienated when North Korea made its statement to the U.S. Where -- where does China fit in at this point and does it hurt or help the U.S.?
CHA: Well, I think China plays a very critical role and their role has evolved in a positive fashion from the U.S. perspective over the past few months. China traditionally has been an ally of the North and has been reluctant to play a proactive role. And with these talks with Beijing, they were really sticking their neck out. They were trying to play a much more proactive role in these talks and the North Koreans basically caused the talks to come apart.
So I think from a perspective here in the United States, one of the more important things to watch is to see how the Chinese react to the outcome of the talks in Beijing. And my guess is that they are not very happy with the outcome. They do not want to see nuclear weapons in North Korea and for this reason; there is common cause between the United States and China on this issue.
ARENA: Can diplomacy work? I mean given the history here, can diplomacy work for some time?
CHA: That is a very difficult question. And I guess it depends in part of how you define diplomacy. If you define diplomacy strictly as engagement, then I think the record shows, thus far it has not been as successful as we would like. If you define it as engagement plus some form of coercive diplomacy, i.e., the threat of sanctions, this is a road we went down in 1994. It may be a road that we go down again in the coming months.
But I think we have to wait and see when the U.S. delegation comes back to Washington we assess what was really said at those talks and whether there is opportunity for more diplomacy.
ARENA: But the North Koreans have said if sanctions are used as an option that it would consider that an act of war. Do they understand -- do you believe that they understand the ramifications of A, the statement that they made and B, the statement about it being an act of war if sanctions were an option?
CHA: Well, I think from the North Korean perspective, they probably would consider it in some, in some sense an act of war in ratcheting up of tensions. But this does not mean that the North Koreans won't react in a more rational fashion to those sanctions. I mean, it seems to me that North Korea has always been very good at negotiating when it always has one option open to it. It can take a hard line with the United States while it has a softer line to South Korea. But if there are multilateral sanctions in which all parties involved were to stand together and to say to North Korea, you can't have those weapons. Then they, at that point they may look for a face-saving way out. And that frankly is still diplomacy.
ARENA: Well, Victor Cha with Georgetown University, we thank you very much for spending some of your Sunday morning with us.
CHA: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 27, 2003 - 08:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: We talked a bit earlier about those high-level talks between North and South Korea on the North's nuclear weapons program with the North now claiming it has a nuclear arsenal and the ability to make more. The discussions come at a critical time.
For some insight, we turn Victor Cha of Georgetown University. He is the author of the forthcoming book, "Nuclear North Korea, A Debate on Strategies of Engagement. "
Thank you for joining us, sir.
VICTOR CHA, PROFESSOR, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: My pleasure.
ARENA: Well, let's just start with the security risk to the United States. We have heard what North Korea has said, that it has nuclear weapons. That it is willing to prove it. How much of a security risk is that on a scale of one to ten to the U.S. and its citizens?
CHA: Well, I don't know if I can scale it for you, but I can certainly tell you that it is a security risk. I mean, traditionally, the risk that North Korea has posed to the United States has been the risk it posed to U.S. allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan. And I think with the revelations, in the talks in Beijing last week that North Korea says it has nuclear weapons, this becomes much more of a homeland security threat and risk to the United States. I mean, the North Korea negotiator allegedly said to the lead U.S. negotiator; we could test these or we can sell them. It depends on what the United States does next. And that translates to a direct homeland security problem.
ARENA: Now, what is the bigger threat if they actually launched a missile or sell it to someone else in your estimation?
CHA: Think probably -- we've seen them launch missiles in the past. Their last launch was in August of 1998. That was a failed three-staged launch, which indicated a longer-range missile than we thought North Korea was capable of developing.
But I think the real concern in terms of the ballistic missile technology is the sale of that technology to other countries or to third parties. I mean I think that is the primary concern at this point. Unless they do another missile test that demonstrates a much longer-range capability. ARENA: We know that China obviously playing a very important role. A very important economic ally of North Korea's. What -- what role does China play at this point, of course, we heard from some officials saying they felt alienated when North Korea made its statement to the U.S. Where -- where does China fit in at this point and does it hurt or help the U.S.?
CHA: Well, I think China plays a very critical role and their role has evolved in a positive fashion from the U.S. perspective over the past few months. China traditionally has been an ally of the North and has been reluctant to play a proactive role. And with these talks with Beijing, they were really sticking their neck out. They were trying to play a much more proactive role in these talks and the North Koreans basically caused the talks to come apart.
So I think from a perspective here in the United States, one of the more important things to watch is to see how the Chinese react to the outcome of the talks in Beijing. And my guess is that they are not very happy with the outcome. They do not want to see nuclear weapons in North Korea and for this reason; there is common cause between the United States and China on this issue.
ARENA: Can diplomacy work? I mean given the history here, can diplomacy work for some time?
CHA: That is a very difficult question. And I guess it depends in part of how you define diplomacy. If you define diplomacy strictly as engagement, then I think the record shows, thus far it has not been as successful as we would like. If you define it as engagement plus some form of coercive diplomacy, i.e., the threat of sanctions, this is a road we went down in 1994. It may be a road that we go down again in the coming months.
But I think we have to wait and see when the U.S. delegation comes back to Washington we assess what was really said at those talks and whether there is opportunity for more diplomacy.
ARENA: But the North Koreans have said if sanctions are used as an option that it would consider that an act of war. Do they understand -- do you believe that they understand the ramifications of A, the statement that they made and B, the statement about it being an act of war if sanctions were an option?
CHA: Well, I think from the North Korean perspective, they probably would consider it in some, in some sense an act of war in ratcheting up of tensions. But this does not mean that the North Koreans won't react in a more rational fashion to those sanctions. I mean, it seems to me that North Korea has always been very good at negotiating when it always has one option open to it. It can take a hard line with the United States while it has a softer line to South Korea. But if there are multilateral sanctions in which all parties involved were to stand together and to say to North Korea, you can't have those weapons. Then they, at that point they may look for a face-saving way out. And that frankly is still diplomacy.
ARENA: Well, Victor Cha with Georgetown University, we thank you very much for spending some of your Sunday morning with us.
CHA: My pleasure.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
