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CNN Sunday Morning

Will Bush's Popularity Translate Into Easy Reelection?

Aired May 04, 2003 - 07:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ROBIN MEADE, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush still enjoys a high job approval rating, but a new "Newsweek" poll suggested he may be vulnerable on the economy. Sixty-five percent of those polled approve of how the president is doing his job. A little more than a quarter do not.
Now the public is equally split over the president's handling of the economy. Forty-five percent approve and 46 percent disapprove, but he gets high marks on Iraq. Sixty-nine percent approve of how he handled Iraq; 26 percent do not.

Will this popularity make the president a shoo-in for re- election? Well, CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining us now from New York to talk just about that.

All right, 18 months until the election, Bill. So what does he have to get done on the economy to stay high in those approval ratings?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, clearly, the economy has to improve. The people are very nervous about the economy. The same thing was true for his father. His father won a great victory in the Persian Gulf in 1991, and saw it disappear very quickly from the political agenda as people became obsessively concerned about the economy.

This President Bush doesn't intend to let that happen. Remember he said on the battleship, or rather the aircraft carrier this past week, the war continues. It will take a long time. He referred to the battle of Iraq, not the war in Iraq, because he wants the war against terrorism to be a continuing feature of next year's campaign.

MEADE: You know, in your opinion, do you think that the war created a type of gender gap among the voters? And if so, then what has to be done in 18 months' time as well?

SCHNEIDER: You know, Robin, it's kind of interesting. After 9/11, the differences between men and women virtually disappeared, as women looked to George Bush as a strong and protective figure.

But now, here is the gender gap right there back again. Majority of men say they'd vote for Bush, but women aren't nearly as sure. That's because of the war. While women wanted George Bush to protect them, they weren't sure that creating a war in Iraq was the best way to do that. So the minute the war happened, the gender gap suddenly re-appeared. And those figures look very, very much like what happened in 2000. We could be all set for a replay of the 2000 election. Oh, my God.

MEADE: You think so?

SCHNEIDER: It could be just that close. That -- the figures we just saw for men and women were exactly the same as the figures for the 2000 election. It was a landslide for Bush among men and a landslide for Gore among women. Two competing landslides, which made it a dead heat.

MEADE: We just saw, before we came to you, a report about the Democratic hopefuls debating last night. When you compare President Bush to the Democratic hopefuls, what are his strong points then? How do you compare them?

SCHNEIDER: National security, national security, national security. George Bush is seen as a man who gives strong leadership, a man who will keep Americans safe, who discovered his mission after the -- after September 11. The Democrats have to be able to cross that threshold of credibility to convince people that they too will keep the country safe. If they can't do that, nobody's going to listen to what they have to say about the economy.

If they can do that, and there are a couple who have experience in world affairs. John Kerry is a decorated military hero. He has been in the Senate for a long time, has specialized in world affairs, he and a couple of others may be able to convince people he's just as strong a leader as George Bush.

Once that's established, the Democrats may be able to score some points on the economy. But if they can't establish their credentials on national security, then they're just not going to be in the game.

MEADE: Should be an eventful 18 months, huh, before that election.

SCHNEIDER: Oh, yes.

MEADE: Bill Schneider, thank you. Good to see you, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired May 4, 2003 - 07:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ROBIN MEADE, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush still enjoys a high job approval rating, but a new "Newsweek" poll suggested he may be vulnerable on the economy. Sixty-five percent of those polled approve of how the president is doing his job. A little more than a quarter do not.
Now the public is equally split over the president's handling of the economy. Forty-five percent approve and 46 percent disapprove, but he gets high marks on Iraq. Sixty-nine percent approve of how he handled Iraq; 26 percent do not.

Will this popularity make the president a shoo-in for re- election? Well, CNN's senior political analyst Bill Schneider is joining us now from New York to talk just about that.

All right, 18 months until the election, Bill. So what does he have to get done on the economy to stay high in those approval ratings?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, clearly, the economy has to improve. The people are very nervous about the economy. The same thing was true for his father. His father won a great victory in the Persian Gulf in 1991, and saw it disappear very quickly from the political agenda as people became obsessively concerned about the economy.

This President Bush doesn't intend to let that happen. Remember he said on the battleship, or rather the aircraft carrier this past week, the war continues. It will take a long time. He referred to the battle of Iraq, not the war in Iraq, because he wants the war against terrorism to be a continuing feature of next year's campaign.

MEADE: You know, in your opinion, do you think that the war created a type of gender gap among the voters? And if so, then what has to be done in 18 months' time as well?

SCHNEIDER: You know, Robin, it's kind of interesting. After 9/11, the differences between men and women virtually disappeared, as women looked to George Bush as a strong and protective figure.

But now, here is the gender gap right there back again. Majority of men say they'd vote for Bush, but women aren't nearly as sure. That's because of the war. While women wanted George Bush to protect them, they weren't sure that creating a war in Iraq was the best way to do that. So the minute the war happened, the gender gap suddenly re-appeared. And those figures look very, very much like what happened in 2000. We could be all set for a replay of the 2000 election. Oh, my God.

MEADE: You think so?

SCHNEIDER: It could be just that close. That -- the figures we just saw for men and women were exactly the same as the figures for the 2000 election. It was a landslide for Bush among men and a landslide for Gore among women. Two competing landslides, which made it a dead heat.

MEADE: We just saw, before we came to you, a report about the Democratic hopefuls debating last night. When you compare President Bush to the Democratic hopefuls, what are his strong points then? How do you compare them?

SCHNEIDER: National security, national security, national security. George Bush is seen as a man who gives strong leadership, a man who will keep Americans safe, who discovered his mission after the -- after September 11. The Democrats have to be able to cross that threshold of credibility to convince people that they too will keep the country safe. If they can't do that, nobody's going to listen to what they have to say about the economy.

If they can do that, and there are a couple who have experience in world affairs. John Kerry is a decorated military hero. He has been in the Senate for a long time, has specialized in world affairs, he and a couple of others may be able to convince people he's just as strong a leader as George Bush.

Once that's established, the Democrats may be able to score some points on the economy. But if they can't establish their credentials on national security, then they're just not going to be in the game.

MEADE: Should be an eventful 18 months, huh, before that election.

SCHNEIDER: Oh, yes.

MEADE: Bill Schneider, thank you. Good to see you, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com