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CNN Sunday Morning

Who Will Be Iraq's Next Leader?

Aired May 04, 2003 - 10:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ROBIN MEADE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk about filling the power void in Iraq. Well, those outside of Saddam Hussein's regime are already vying for roles in a new Iraqi government. The U.S. led coalition had its eye on some political figures, but what types of leaders would be best suited to run a new Iraq?
Let's explore that issue with Ken Pollack, the author of "The Threatening Storm", the case for invading Iraq, also with the Brookings Institution and an analyst for CNN.

Good morning, Ken. It's nice to have you with us.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Robin.

MEADE: So, are the names that are emerging right now, a number of them, really, any of the people that could end up being the leader when it comes to that happening?

POLLACK: It's always possible, Robin. They might be. We just don't know. And that really is the most important point is we don't know who the Iraqi people are going to choose to be their leaders and the hard part for the United States is going to be not picking leaders for them.

The key is that the only way that we're going to have a stable Iraq is if we allow the Iraqis to pick their own leaders and that means that we have to help them build a process that allows them to do it rather than picking people for them who could very likely prove to be illegitimate in the eyes of the Iraqi people, who might actually turn them off to the whole process of democratization and turn them against the entire U.S.-led operation.

MEADE: You know, there are reports, too, that Iraqis may also feel resentful toward Iraqi exiles now coming back into the country, perhaps looking for a piece of that leadership pie, which brings up a name that we have heard often of Ahmad Chalabi, what that might mean for his future as a leader.

POLLACK: Well, you are right. This is what we are hearing from Iraqis, that Iraqis are deeply unhappy with many of the exiles. They feel that these people fled, they didn't share in the same kind of miseries and deprivations that they did for the last 10, 12, arguably 20 or 30 years and as a result, they resent the exiles.

I think for all of the exiles, whether it is Ahmad Chalabi or any of the others, they're going to have to prove on their own merits to the Iraqi people that they should have a role in governance of Iraq. And that, really, again, is the key point.

The worst thing that the United States could do would be to pick people for the Iraqis. We just don't know who they want to rule them and if we try to install someone, chances are the Iraqis will reject not only that candidate, but our role in the entire process.

MEADE: You know, we have a list of five political leaders, perhaps while you are talking we can put their names up on the screen and have a description of them. These five political leaders apparently met with a U.S. envoy this week. Are they, in addition to Ahmad Chalabi perhaps emerging as the main political groups or leaders of the main political groups at this point?

POLLACK: Well, I think at this point in time, it is a little bit too early to know exactly what kind of role they are going to play. Sayed Al-Hakim, the name that people can see on the screen right now, he is the leader of one of the extreme Islamic groups. He is backed by the Iranians. He does have a following in southern Iraq, but as best we understand it, most people in southern Iraq, most of Iraq's Shi'a do not care for Sayed Al-Hakim, and they certainly don't want the kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime he would like to see in place.

So, he may be someone who could be some kind of a player in the future of Iraq, but it seems unlikely that he will be the person the Iraqis would like to choose to lead them.

MEADE: Not much time, so maybe we could get the rest of these up on the screen. One of them, Jalal Talabani. What kind of response might that person get?

POLLACK: Well, Jalal Talabani is one of the two main Kurdish leaders. He will be very well liked by his particular segment of the Kurdish population, but there is another half of the Kurdish population that doesn't care for him and for most of the rest of Iraq, where Sunni Arabs and Shi'a Arabs, they may not also be terribly happy with Jalal Talabani running country. Somebody who could play a role.

MEADE: Najib Al Salihi.

POLLACK: Najib Al Salihi is a former Iraqi military officer. He is a very bright guy. He is a very reasonable guy. Again, he is someone who could play a role in the future of Iraq. As to whether or not he will lead it, that has got to be left to the Iraqi people.

MEADE: OK. Two more. We have Masoud Barzani. Quickly.

POLLACK: Masoud Barzani is the other main Kurdish leader. Like Jalal, he is someone who will be a very important player in the future of Iraq, but because he is limited to about half the Kurdish population, unlikely that he, too, would be the leader of a new Iraqi.

MEADE: And Sharif Ali Bin Hussein.

POLLACK: Sharif Ali is the pretender to the throne. He is part of the old Iraqi monarchic dynasty, a very short-lived dynasty. Again, someone who might play a role as a legitimizing force, but he doesn't seem to have a tremendously popular base in Iraq right now.

MEADE: Here's the thing, Ken. Anyone who even appears to have the backing of the coalition or more importantly, perhaps of U.S., have any chance at winning possible leadership roles.

POLLACK: You know, Robin, I hate to sound like a broken record, but the answer is "we don't know". There are actually a lot of reports coming out of Iraq that in fact, most of the Iraqi people want to see the United States take a firm hand. What they are most afraid of is chaos and instability. And what that suggests is that if the United States backs a particular candidate, it may not necessarily be the kiss of death.

On the other hand, if we impose someone on the Iraqi people, especially someone they don't particularly know, under those circumstances, that person undoubtedly will be seen as a puppet and that is the kind of circumstances we can jeopardize not only that candidate's chances of success, but also our chances of successfully building a democratic system in Iraq.

MEADE: All right. Ken Pollack, and hats off to you for getting through that list of people there and explaining a little bit more about them. Thank you for your time this morning.

POLLACK: Thank you, Robin.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired May 4, 2003 - 10:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ROBIN MEADE, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk about filling the power void in Iraq. Well, those outside of Saddam Hussein's regime are already vying for roles in a new Iraqi government. The U.S. led coalition had its eye on some political figures, but what types of leaders would be best suited to run a new Iraq?
Let's explore that issue with Ken Pollack, the author of "The Threatening Storm", the case for invading Iraq, also with the Brookings Institution and an analyst for CNN.

Good morning, Ken. It's nice to have you with us.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Robin.

MEADE: So, are the names that are emerging right now, a number of them, really, any of the people that could end up being the leader when it comes to that happening?

POLLACK: It's always possible, Robin. They might be. We just don't know. And that really is the most important point is we don't know who the Iraqi people are going to choose to be their leaders and the hard part for the United States is going to be not picking leaders for them.

The key is that the only way that we're going to have a stable Iraq is if we allow the Iraqis to pick their own leaders and that means that we have to help them build a process that allows them to do it rather than picking people for them who could very likely prove to be illegitimate in the eyes of the Iraqi people, who might actually turn them off to the whole process of democratization and turn them against the entire U.S.-led operation.

MEADE: You know, there are reports, too, that Iraqis may also feel resentful toward Iraqi exiles now coming back into the country, perhaps looking for a piece of that leadership pie, which brings up a name that we have heard often of Ahmad Chalabi, what that might mean for his future as a leader.

POLLACK: Well, you are right. This is what we are hearing from Iraqis, that Iraqis are deeply unhappy with many of the exiles. They feel that these people fled, they didn't share in the same kind of miseries and deprivations that they did for the last 10, 12, arguably 20 or 30 years and as a result, they resent the exiles.

I think for all of the exiles, whether it is Ahmad Chalabi or any of the others, they're going to have to prove on their own merits to the Iraqi people that they should have a role in governance of Iraq. And that, really, again, is the key point.

The worst thing that the United States could do would be to pick people for the Iraqis. We just don't know who they want to rule them and if we try to install someone, chances are the Iraqis will reject not only that candidate, but our role in the entire process.

MEADE: You know, we have a list of five political leaders, perhaps while you are talking we can put their names up on the screen and have a description of them. These five political leaders apparently met with a U.S. envoy this week. Are they, in addition to Ahmad Chalabi perhaps emerging as the main political groups or leaders of the main political groups at this point?

POLLACK: Well, I think at this point in time, it is a little bit too early to know exactly what kind of role they are going to play. Sayed Al-Hakim, the name that people can see on the screen right now, he is the leader of one of the extreme Islamic groups. He is backed by the Iranians. He does have a following in southern Iraq, but as best we understand it, most people in southern Iraq, most of Iraq's Shi'a do not care for Sayed Al-Hakim, and they certainly don't want the kind of Islamic fundamentalist regime he would like to see in place.

So, he may be someone who could be some kind of a player in the future of Iraq, but it seems unlikely that he will be the person the Iraqis would like to choose to lead them.

MEADE: Not much time, so maybe we could get the rest of these up on the screen. One of them, Jalal Talabani. What kind of response might that person get?

POLLACK: Well, Jalal Talabani is one of the two main Kurdish leaders. He will be very well liked by his particular segment of the Kurdish population, but there is another half of the Kurdish population that doesn't care for him and for most of the rest of Iraq, where Sunni Arabs and Shi'a Arabs, they may not also be terribly happy with Jalal Talabani running country. Somebody who could play a role.

MEADE: Najib Al Salihi.

POLLACK: Najib Al Salihi is a former Iraqi military officer. He is a very bright guy. He is a very reasonable guy. Again, he is someone who could play a role in the future of Iraq. As to whether or not he will lead it, that has got to be left to the Iraqi people.

MEADE: OK. Two more. We have Masoud Barzani. Quickly.

POLLACK: Masoud Barzani is the other main Kurdish leader. Like Jalal, he is someone who will be a very important player in the future of Iraq, but because he is limited to about half the Kurdish population, unlikely that he, too, would be the leader of a new Iraqi.

MEADE: And Sharif Ali Bin Hussein.

POLLACK: Sharif Ali is the pretender to the throne. He is part of the old Iraqi monarchic dynasty, a very short-lived dynasty. Again, someone who might play a role as a legitimizing force, but he doesn't seem to have a tremendously popular base in Iraq right now.

MEADE: Here's the thing, Ken. Anyone who even appears to have the backing of the coalition or more importantly, perhaps of U.S., have any chance at winning possible leadership roles.

POLLACK: You know, Robin, I hate to sound like a broken record, but the answer is "we don't know". There are actually a lot of reports coming out of Iraq that in fact, most of the Iraqi people want to see the United States take a firm hand. What they are most afraid of is chaos and instability. And what that suggests is that if the United States backs a particular candidate, it may not necessarily be the kiss of death.

On the other hand, if we impose someone on the Iraqi people, especially someone they don't particularly know, under those circumstances, that person undoubtedly will be seen as a puppet and that is the kind of circumstances we can jeopardize not only that candidate's chances of success, but also our chances of successfully building a democratic system in Iraq.

MEADE: All right. Ken Pollack, and hats off to you for getting through that list of people there and explaining a little bit more about them. Thank you for your time this morning.

POLLACK: Thank you, Robin.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com