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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Larry Sabato

Aired May 04, 2003 - 10:40   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: A battlefield victory, you have a slumping economy and a reelection campaign. It sounds like a repeat of the 1992 presidential race. The question is, will President Bush avoid the pitfall that caused the last President Bush the White House.
Larry Sabato is the director for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He joins me this morning from Charlottesville. Thanks very much for being with us, Larry.

It's become almost a cliche at this point to compare this President Bush to his father, especially their positions post-war. Let's talk a little bit more about their differences.

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR OF CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Yes, you are absolutely right. You know, the similarities are eerie, but they are superficial. This President Bush is very, very different than his father. For one thing, he is much more conservative and he has solidified the conservative base in the Republican Party. Eighty percent of Republic activists really fall into that category.

He is in much better shape. He is not going to get a primary challenge the way his father did from Pat Buchanan. So, that helps him enormously. And second, Anderson, remember, he has got the example of his father. That was a searing experience for him and his whole family to watch his father go down in flames after having been at 91 percent in the polls after the Gulf War.

COOPER: And what do you think he has learned? What do you think he took away from what happened to his father.

SABATO: Well, he learned to take care of the conservative base and beyond that, he learned it is very important to shift quickly to the economy, domestic problems and to use the capital that you gained from a successful war in solving domestic problems. And that is what this President Bush is trying to do that his father didn't.

COOPER: Let's keep talking about some of those differences. What this President Bush has which the last president didn't have is an ongoing major threat to national security.

SABATO: Absolutely. Again, his father didn't have the national security card in 1992. The fall of communism in 1989, 1990 eliminated foreign policy from the front burner of American politics, but three straight presidential elections -- '92, '96, 2000. Not surprisingly, the Democrats won, too and carried the popular vote in the third in 2000. Now, the national security card is back. That automatically favors Republicans and President Bush is going to try to use the national security card to balance the economy, which is bad.

COOPER: Do you think his staff is different than the staff of his father, even though a lot of the people are the same?

SABATO: Some people are the same, but this is a much more aggressive staff. You know, President Bush the senior had no one to handle politics, really. Jim Baker had been his campaign manager in '88. He became secretary of state, became an international statesman. So, he wasn't doing the political work. Lee Atwater, the Republican National Committee chair, who an elected George Bush, senior, died, so there was no one.

This President Bush has Karl Rove, who is clearly one of the best political strategists we have seen in this country in the last century.

COOPER: The other big difference, and I suppose opinions might differ on this, but it doesn't seem at this point that there is a Bill Clinton out there among these nine Democratic presidential hopefuls.

SABATO: So far. I hate to diss them this early. As Candy Crowley was saying in her set up piece, it is awfully early and one of them may emerge as a giant killer before it is over.

COOPER: By the way, there are some people who would say it's not a diss to say that there is not a Bill Clinton among the Democratic candidates, but it is a matter of opinion, of course.

SABATO: That is absolutely a matter of opinion. In 1991, at this point, nobody thought Bill Clinton had a shot at all. Nobody was impressed with him. So, it is awfully early and I think one of these people obviously will emerge, become the nominee and as long as the Democrats don't split six ways to Sunday, that person is going to be competitive. He is going to inherit 45 to 48 percent and will fight over the remaining four or five percent in the election.

COOPER: All right. Larry Sabato. I appreciate you coming in this morning. It's good to talk to you. Thanks.

SABATO: Thank you, Anderson.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired May 4, 2003 - 10:40   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: A battlefield victory, you have a slumping economy and a reelection campaign. It sounds like a repeat of the 1992 presidential race. The question is, will President Bush avoid the pitfall that caused the last President Bush the White House.
Larry Sabato is the director for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He joins me this morning from Charlottesville. Thanks very much for being with us, Larry.

It's become almost a cliche at this point to compare this President Bush to his father, especially their positions post-war. Let's talk a little bit more about their differences.

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR OF CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Yes, you are absolutely right. You know, the similarities are eerie, but they are superficial. This President Bush is very, very different than his father. For one thing, he is much more conservative and he has solidified the conservative base in the Republican Party. Eighty percent of Republic activists really fall into that category.

He is in much better shape. He is not going to get a primary challenge the way his father did from Pat Buchanan. So, that helps him enormously. And second, Anderson, remember, he has got the example of his father. That was a searing experience for him and his whole family to watch his father go down in flames after having been at 91 percent in the polls after the Gulf War.

COOPER: And what do you think he has learned? What do you think he took away from what happened to his father.

SABATO: Well, he learned to take care of the conservative base and beyond that, he learned it is very important to shift quickly to the economy, domestic problems and to use the capital that you gained from a successful war in solving domestic problems. And that is what this President Bush is trying to do that his father didn't.

COOPER: Let's keep talking about some of those differences. What this President Bush has which the last president didn't have is an ongoing major threat to national security.

SABATO: Absolutely. Again, his father didn't have the national security card in 1992. The fall of communism in 1989, 1990 eliminated foreign policy from the front burner of American politics, but three straight presidential elections -- '92, '96, 2000. Not surprisingly, the Democrats won, too and carried the popular vote in the third in 2000. Now, the national security card is back. That automatically favors Republicans and President Bush is going to try to use the national security card to balance the economy, which is bad.

COOPER: Do you think his staff is different than the staff of his father, even though a lot of the people are the same?

SABATO: Some people are the same, but this is a much more aggressive staff. You know, President Bush the senior had no one to handle politics, really. Jim Baker had been his campaign manager in '88. He became secretary of state, became an international statesman. So, he wasn't doing the political work. Lee Atwater, the Republican National Committee chair, who an elected George Bush, senior, died, so there was no one.

This President Bush has Karl Rove, who is clearly one of the best political strategists we have seen in this country in the last century.

COOPER: The other big difference, and I suppose opinions might differ on this, but it doesn't seem at this point that there is a Bill Clinton out there among these nine Democratic presidential hopefuls.

SABATO: So far. I hate to diss them this early. As Candy Crowley was saying in her set up piece, it is awfully early and one of them may emerge as a giant killer before it is over.

COOPER: By the way, there are some people who would say it's not a diss to say that there is not a Bill Clinton among the Democratic candidates, but it is a matter of opinion, of course.

SABATO: That is absolutely a matter of opinion. In 1991, at this point, nobody thought Bill Clinton had a shot at all. Nobody was impressed with him. So, it is awfully early and I think one of these people obviously will emerge, become the nominee and as long as the Democrats don't split six ways to Sunday, that person is going to be competitive. He is going to inherit 45 to 48 percent and will fight over the remaining four or five percent in the election.

COOPER: All right. Larry Sabato. I appreciate you coming in this morning. It's good to talk to you. Thanks.

SABATO: Thank you, Anderson.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com