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CNN Sunday Morning

Hurricane Season Approaches

Aired June 01, 2003 - 11:13   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: If the experts are right, parts of the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines could be in for a rough ride in the months ahead. The Atlantic hurricane season is 11 hours old now, and it's a long way to November. CNN's John Zarrella tells us how it's shaping up.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): Early last October, during the waning weeks of a rather uneventful hurricane season, an unimpressive storm named Lili suddenly grabbed lots of attention. Half a million people in Louisiana and Texas were told to evacuate, as Lili exploded into a category four hurricane. Its winds clocked at 145 miles per hour.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: There were a lot of people who did not evacuate, who did not prepare for that hurricane, and if it had remained a category four, I think we could have had hundreds of people killed in Louisiana from that.

ZARRELLA: Lili fell apart as it approached the coast, sparing Louisiana. In fact, since 1995, when forecasters believe a new long- term cycle of increased hurricane activity began, far fewer major hurricanes have hit the U.S. than in past active periods. But hurricane forecasters say that kind of good fortune can't last forever.

WILLIAM GRAY, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTIST: If the tide turns a little bit, and we revert more to the long-term averages, we're going to see hurricane damage like we've never previously seen it.

ZARRELLA: And forecasters say this season will be active, producing more storms than an average year, and possibly more big ones like Lili.

MAYFIELD: It's like having more bullets in the gun. You have a bigger chance of getting hit.

ZARRELLA: And after the storm, it can be years before all the pieces are picked up. In 1992, Miami's metro zoo was torn apart by hurricane Andrew. A year later, the zoo reopened. But the aviary, which lost 300 birds, did not. Only now, nearly 11 years later, has the new "Wings of Asia" exhibit re-opened. It has been rebuilt to withstand winds in excess of 100 miles per hour, a category two hurricane. This season, coastal residents will have more lead time than ever to prepare. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts projecting where a storm could be five days out. Until now, the center issued a three-day advance forecast.

ZARRELLA (on camera): But studies show the majority of coastal residents simply don't plan in advance. Hurricane experts say they hope that the extra two days' heads up will at least get people to start thinking about the kinds of things they will need if a hurricane should come their way.

John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHOI: And meteorologist Rob Marciano joins us now, to talk more about the upcoming hurricane season that begins today. And I guess they kind of upped the number of potential hurricanes coming our way because of the La Nina effect, which sometimes, but not always, follows El Nino.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Which we've had a moderate El Nino, and now we're kind of transitioning out of that. And if we do go into La Nina, La Nina's actually good for hurricanes.

It's all very confusing, but we'll run it down for you once again, exactly what the forecast is. Out of Colorado state, Dr. William Gray has been doing this for a long time. He and his staff are really good, so they continue to update their techniques. As they go on through the years ahead, they're getting more and more accurate.

Tropical storms, we expect 14, according to Dr. Gray, and the number of storms that will turn into hurricanes, eight. Major hurricanes, as many as three, which would bring the winds in excess of 110 miles an hour. So those are strong ones.

We've already had a named storm back in April. Almost unheard of, so Ana is already off the list. This is a partial list of what you can expect the names to be. They rotate every six years, they go boy, girl, boy, girl, boy, girl, right on through the alphabet. Typically Spanish, French, and English names because of the Caribbean.

All right, let's talk more about what's happening across the country. Today, across California, really nice weather. Not El Nino weather. 66 in Seattle. Dry in Portland. Denver, Colorado ...

CHOI: Rob, I have to interrupt you. Guess what? Your microphone went out. But we'll try to get that fixed and get back to you a bit later. Thanks for that, though. I think we got the gist of the story.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired June 1, 2003 - 11:13   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: If the experts are right, parts of the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines could be in for a rough ride in the months ahead. The Atlantic hurricane season is 11 hours old now, and it's a long way to November. CNN's John Zarrella tells us how it's shaping up.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): Early last October, during the waning weeks of a rather uneventful hurricane season, an unimpressive storm named Lili suddenly grabbed lots of attention. Half a million people in Louisiana and Texas were told to evacuate, as Lili exploded into a category four hurricane. Its winds clocked at 145 miles per hour.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: There were a lot of people who did not evacuate, who did not prepare for that hurricane, and if it had remained a category four, I think we could have had hundreds of people killed in Louisiana from that.

ZARRELLA: Lili fell apart as it approached the coast, sparing Louisiana. In fact, since 1995, when forecasters believe a new long- term cycle of increased hurricane activity began, far fewer major hurricanes have hit the U.S. than in past active periods. But hurricane forecasters say that kind of good fortune can't last forever.

WILLIAM GRAY, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENTIST: If the tide turns a little bit, and we revert more to the long-term averages, we're going to see hurricane damage like we've never previously seen it.

ZARRELLA: And forecasters say this season will be active, producing more storms than an average year, and possibly more big ones like Lili.

MAYFIELD: It's like having more bullets in the gun. You have a bigger chance of getting hit.

ZARRELLA: And after the storm, it can be years before all the pieces are picked up. In 1992, Miami's metro zoo was torn apart by hurricane Andrew. A year later, the zoo reopened. But the aviary, which lost 300 birds, did not. Only now, nearly 11 years later, has the new "Wings of Asia" exhibit re-opened. It has been rebuilt to withstand winds in excess of 100 miles per hour, a category two hurricane. This season, coastal residents will have more lead time than ever to prepare. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts projecting where a storm could be five days out. Until now, the center issued a three-day advance forecast.

ZARRELLA (on camera): But studies show the majority of coastal residents simply don't plan in advance. Hurricane experts say they hope that the extra two days' heads up will at least get people to start thinking about the kinds of things they will need if a hurricane should come their way.

John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHOI: And meteorologist Rob Marciano joins us now, to talk more about the upcoming hurricane season that begins today. And I guess they kind of upped the number of potential hurricanes coming our way because of the La Nina effect, which sometimes, but not always, follows El Nino.

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Which we've had a moderate El Nino, and now we're kind of transitioning out of that. And if we do go into La Nina, La Nina's actually good for hurricanes.

It's all very confusing, but we'll run it down for you once again, exactly what the forecast is. Out of Colorado state, Dr. William Gray has been doing this for a long time. He and his staff are really good, so they continue to update their techniques. As they go on through the years ahead, they're getting more and more accurate.

Tropical storms, we expect 14, according to Dr. Gray, and the number of storms that will turn into hurricanes, eight. Major hurricanes, as many as three, which would bring the winds in excess of 110 miles an hour. So those are strong ones.

We've already had a named storm back in April. Almost unheard of, so Ana is already off the list. This is a partial list of what you can expect the names to be. They rotate every six years, they go boy, girl, boy, girl, boy, girl, right on through the alphabet. Typically Spanish, French, and English names because of the Caribbean.

All right, let's talk more about what's happening across the country. Today, across California, really nice weather. Not El Nino weather. 66 in Seattle. Dry in Portland. Denver, Colorado ...

CHOI: Rob, I have to interrupt you. Guess what? Your microphone went out. But we'll try to get that fixed and get back to you a bit later. Thanks for that, though. I think we got the gist of the story.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com