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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Tim Padgett

Aired June 08, 2003 - 09:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SANJAY GUPTA, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us from Miami with more perspective on this Cuba situation is "Time" magazine's Miami bureau chief, Tim Padgett.
Thank you very much for joining us, Tim. Couple of quick questions. First of all, just to set the tone here, this is one of the first big dissident movements that Castro has ever really seen. Two questions. First of all, why now, and what kind of impact do you think that this is going to have?

TIM PADGETT, MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, why now, I think you have to -- one name. A man named Osvaldo Paya, who leads a movement called the Christian Liberation Movement, from which came a referendum movement called the Varela Project. And in the past five years or so, particularly after the Pope's visit there in 1998, which sort of galvanized Paya's movement. Paya himself is a very devout Roman Catholic.

In the past five years or so we've seen this dissident movement grow to the point where tens of thousands, perhaps 40,000 Cubans have signed his petitions for a referendum on human rights, which is allowed under Castro's constitution. And, as you noticed, as you have said, what has resulted from this is the first bona fide dissident movement, grassroots dissident movement that Castro has had to face.

GUPTA: Do you think it's making much of an impact? Is this going to have an impact on Castro, the government?

PADGETT: Well, I don't think it will have much of a short-term impact. As we've seen, Castro's been able to round up scores of people. Most of the people who were arrested and convicted and are in prison right now are from Paya's movement. So in the short term Castro's grip on power is pretty well assured.

In the long term, however, I think this dissident movement could begin to create democratic change in Cuba. Perhaps not on the scale that we saw, for example, from the solidarity movement that we saw in Poland in the 1980s, but it's the kind of grassroots movement that has taken hold and can begin to erode the totalitarian administration of Cuba in the long term.

GUPTA: Right. It doesn't look like it now. They're just being imprisoned. Incredible crackdown. Let's turn perspective a little bit to the EU and the U.N.. Is Cuba just thumbing its nose at the EU in terms of these sanctions? PADGETT: Well, I don't think Cuba can afford to thumb its nose at the EU. The EU, as Lucia pointed out in her report, is Cuba's largest trading partner. But more important, the EU is one of, if not the largest source of tourism for Cuba.

Tourism is really the only thing that's keeping Cuba's economy afloat right now. The sugar cane harvest, for example, keeps declining every year. It could be as much as 40 percent less than it was last year. Tourism is the thing that's keeping Castro's economy -- keeping its head above water. And if opinion about Cuba begins to sour in Europe, you could see fewer tourists coming in, and that could have an effect. I don't think Castro can really afford to show much more disdain for the EU.

GUPTA: OK. Tim Padgett, thank you very much for your perspectives. Obviously a very desperate situation for some of these dissidents. I appreciate that very much. Thank you.

PADGETT: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired June 8, 2003 - 09:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SANJAY GUPTA, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us from Miami with more perspective on this Cuba situation is "Time" magazine's Miami bureau chief, Tim Padgett.
Thank you very much for joining us, Tim. Couple of quick questions. First of all, just to set the tone here, this is one of the first big dissident movements that Castro has ever really seen. Two questions. First of all, why now, and what kind of impact do you think that this is going to have?

TIM PADGETT, MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, why now, I think you have to -- one name. A man named Osvaldo Paya, who leads a movement called the Christian Liberation Movement, from which came a referendum movement called the Varela Project. And in the past five years or so, particularly after the Pope's visit there in 1998, which sort of galvanized Paya's movement. Paya himself is a very devout Roman Catholic.

In the past five years or so we've seen this dissident movement grow to the point where tens of thousands, perhaps 40,000 Cubans have signed his petitions for a referendum on human rights, which is allowed under Castro's constitution. And, as you noticed, as you have said, what has resulted from this is the first bona fide dissident movement, grassroots dissident movement that Castro has had to face.

GUPTA: Do you think it's making much of an impact? Is this going to have an impact on Castro, the government?

PADGETT: Well, I don't think it will have much of a short-term impact. As we've seen, Castro's been able to round up scores of people. Most of the people who were arrested and convicted and are in prison right now are from Paya's movement. So in the short term Castro's grip on power is pretty well assured.

In the long term, however, I think this dissident movement could begin to create democratic change in Cuba. Perhaps not on the scale that we saw, for example, from the solidarity movement that we saw in Poland in the 1980s, but it's the kind of grassroots movement that has taken hold and can begin to erode the totalitarian administration of Cuba in the long term.

GUPTA: Right. It doesn't look like it now. They're just being imprisoned. Incredible crackdown. Let's turn perspective a little bit to the EU and the U.N.. Is Cuba just thumbing its nose at the EU in terms of these sanctions? PADGETT: Well, I don't think Cuba can afford to thumb its nose at the EU. The EU, as Lucia pointed out in her report, is Cuba's largest trading partner. But more important, the EU is one of, if not the largest source of tourism for Cuba.

Tourism is really the only thing that's keeping Cuba's economy afloat right now. The sugar cane harvest, for example, keeps declining every year. It could be as much as 40 percent less than it was last year. Tourism is the thing that's keeping Castro's economy -- keeping its head above water. And if opinion about Cuba begins to sour in Europe, you could see fewer tourists coming in, and that could have an effect. I don't think Castro can really afford to show much more disdain for the EU.

GUPTA: OK. Tim Padgett, thank you very much for your perspectives. Obviously a very desperate situation for some of these dissidents. I appreciate that very much. Thank you.

PADGETT: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com