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CNN Sunday Morning
Interview With Cheri Jacobus, Jason Boxt
Aired July 20, 2003 - 11:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: Polls and the presidency go hand in hand. The American public is weighing in already on the 2004 presidential contenders in some new polls. To dissect the numbers, we have two strategists. Democratic strategist Jason Boxt, and from the GOP, Cheri Jacobus.
Thanks very much for joining us this morning. Cheri, I want to start with you. We're mired in Iraq, North Korea escalates, we involve more troops in Africa. What is that going to do to the president?
CHERI JACOBUS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, there's no question that the president is in a difficult situation, but that's what leadership is. I would say that, despite the slight dip in his numbers, it still looks pretty good.
He has overall favorable rating; people still prefer him to any democrat in the race, but this is what leadership is. If his numbers were to stay precisely where they were after 9/11, that would be a miracle. So when your numbers are astronomically high, as they were then, you really have nowhere to go but down. But we're going to see a lot of changes between now and the election as events unfold.
CALLEBS: Spoken like a true GOP. Jason, weigh in on that. Do you think it is a slight drop, that the public still wildly supports the president?
JASON BOXT, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I don't think slight describes it at all. If you look at his numbers, a year ago he had a 69 percent job approval rating and a 67 percent personal approval rating. Those numbers have dropped precipitously in the last year. Now he has a 53 percent approval rating; he's got 57 percent personal favorable rating.
Actually, most importantly, more Americans indicated they would vote for somebody else, rather than the president. 46 percent say they'd re-elect him. 47 percent say they'd vote for another candidate.
CALLEBS: OK. Let's look at some poll numbers we have about the registered voters who voted for Bush and what they think now.
Cheri, your thoughts on these? Very likely, 37 percent. Very unlikely, 36 percent. What does that tell you?
JACOBUS: Well, again, I think these are not bad numbers. The president's favorables are still high. I'm seeing different poll numbers that show he would be re-elected by plurality over democrats. Of course, pluralities matter in elections, as we found out with Bill Clinton.
But there's one thing that I do think is important, I think he's doing an excellent job under the circumstances. In the next six months there will be a body of evidence of weapons of mass destruction, which will change public thought right now. Right now there is a lot of confusion out there, so I am actually surprised his numbers are this high given the nature of what's out there now, and the gravity of what we're dealing with.
So he's doing an excellent job. Mainly, as long as we have people like John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Bob Graham sounding more like Baath party loyalists than people who want to be president, I think George -- I think Bush is in pretty good shape.
CALLEBS: OK. Let's look at some numbers we have about the poll, registered voters for 2004. These numbers dropping somewhat from May till now, 57 percent to 53 percent. We should point out that there is a small error, plus or minus about 3 percent.
And Jason, let me ask you, there's so many democrats out there trying to distinguish themselves among all the candidates, are these guys going to beat themselves up and make President Bush look that much more attractive?
BOXT: I don't think so. If you look back in 1991, you had a large number of democratic candidates who were out there trying to make their case to democratic voters. I think the cacophony of democrats out there now will diminish somewhat as we move closer to the primaries.
You have to remember, this is July. You have more voters with their toes in the sand than you do reading the front pages of "The New York Times" or "The Washington Post." I think as we get closer to the election, you're going to see the message is getting a little more honed. And I don't think that there's any question that once a candidate is chosen among the democrats the other remaining 10 or 14 or 37 that democrats that eventually get into this are all going to fall in line behind that democratic nominee.
CALLEBS: Let's look at this graphic here that shows you wildly tepid support. We have Lieberman, at 16 percent, leading the pack, and then all the numbers marginally dropping in behind.
What does it tell you also about President Bush's ability to raise money? He has been extremely good at that at this point. Cheri, I'll start with you.
JACOBUS: Well, he's always been good at that, and that's a very strong point in his favor. So it has to do with money, it has to do with message, it has to do with image. So money does matter.
But ultimately, you know, it is the candidacy of the man and the people around him. And I think that really is President Bush's great strength. The others simply haven't broken through. They're all trying to find some issue to run against this president, which is expected. But they seem to be hanging their hat, many of them, on the weapons of mass destruction, or those 16 words in the State of the Union address that have been controversial in the past few weeks.
The problem is, when weapons of mass destruction are discovered, and/or this body of evidence comes together, the documents pointing to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which we expect within the next six months, the democrats really have nothing to run on.
So I would just agree that they'll coalesce behind the democratic candidate. I think a year from now there could still be a problem for the democrats.
CALLEBS: Jason, let me ask you. The frustration, the fact that the economy isn't turning around, there are the troubles internationally, and no democrat seems to be able to chip away at the president. Your concerns?
BOXT: I have none at this point. Again, it's July in an odd numbered year before the election next September. We're talking 14 months, 15 months away. I think that there's plenty of time.
I think, even today, news came out that there was more evidence that was either exaggerated or blatantly wrong. I don't think any one thing that we've talked about so far is going to be a problem for the president. I think collectively, though, they get at his credibility. This is a president who asked for a higher standard of truth from the White House. And I think he is now falling on the sword that he slayed Gore with in 2000. I think as we get closer to the primaries, as we get closer to the general election, what really is at stake here for the president is his credibility. This is what his personal approval ratings were based on.
CALLEBS: OK, I want to thank you both very much. Jason Boxt, democratic consultant, as well as Cheri Jacobus. Did I get that name right, Cheri? I hope so.
JACOBUS: Jacobus.
CALLEBS: Jacobus, I apologize. Well, thank you both for joining us here. We appreciate it.
BOXT: Thanks, Sean.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired July 20, 2003 - 11:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: Polls and the presidency go hand in hand. The American public is weighing in already on the 2004 presidential contenders in some new polls. To dissect the numbers, we have two strategists. Democratic strategist Jason Boxt, and from the GOP, Cheri Jacobus.
Thanks very much for joining us this morning. Cheri, I want to start with you. We're mired in Iraq, North Korea escalates, we involve more troops in Africa. What is that going to do to the president?
CHERI JACOBUS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, there's no question that the president is in a difficult situation, but that's what leadership is. I would say that, despite the slight dip in his numbers, it still looks pretty good.
He has overall favorable rating; people still prefer him to any democrat in the race, but this is what leadership is. If his numbers were to stay precisely where they were after 9/11, that would be a miracle. So when your numbers are astronomically high, as they were then, you really have nowhere to go but down. But we're going to see a lot of changes between now and the election as events unfold.
CALLEBS: Spoken like a true GOP. Jason, weigh in on that. Do you think it is a slight drop, that the public still wildly supports the president?
JASON BOXT, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I don't think slight describes it at all. If you look at his numbers, a year ago he had a 69 percent job approval rating and a 67 percent personal approval rating. Those numbers have dropped precipitously in the last year. Now he has a 53 percent approval rating; he's got 57 percent personal favorable rating.
Actually, most importantly, more Americans indicated they would vote for somebody else, rather than the president. 46 percent say they'd re-elect him. 47 percent say they'd vote for another candidate.
CALLEBS: OK. Let's look at some poll numbers we have about the registered voters who voted for Bush and what they think now.
Cheri, your thoughts on these? Very likely, 37 percent. Very unlikely, 36 percent. What does that tell you?
JACOBUS: Well, again, I think these are not bad numbers. The president's favorables are still high. I'm seeing different poll numbers that show he would be re-elected by plurality over democrats. Of course, pluralities matter in elections, as we found out with Bill Clinton.
But there's one thing that I do think is important, I think he's doing an excellent job under the circumstances. In the next six months there will be a body of evidence of weapons of mass destruction, which will change public thought right now. Right now there is a lot of confusion out there, so I am actually surprised his numbers are this high given the nature of what's out there now, and the gravity of what we're dealing with.
So he's doing an excellent job. Mainly, as long as we have people like John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Bob Graham sounding more like Baath party loyalists than people who want to be president, I think George -- I think Bush is in pretty good shape.
CALLEBS: OK. Let's look at some numbers we have about the poll, registered voters for 2004. These numbers dropping somewhat from May till now, 57 percent to 53 percent. We should point out that there is a small error, plus or minus about 3 percent.
And Jason, let me ask you, there's so many democrats out there trying to distinguish themselves among all the candidates, are these guys going to beat themselves up and make President Bush look that much more attractive?
BOXT: I don't think so. If you look back in 1991, you had a large number of democratic candidates who were out there trying to make their case to democratic voters. I think the cacophony of democrats out there now will diminish somewhat as we move closer to the primaries.
You have to remember, this is July. You have more voters with their toes in the sand than you do reading the front pages of "The New York Times" or "The Washington Post." I think as we get closer to the election, you're going to see the message is getting a little more honed. And I don't think that there's any question that once a candidate is chosen among the democrats the other remaining 10 or 14 or 37 that democrats that eventually get into this are all going to fall in line behind that democratic nominee.
CALLEBS: Let's look at this graphic here that shows you wildly tepid support. We have Lieberman, at 16 percent, leading the pack, and then all the numbers marginally dropping in behind.
What does it tell you also about President Bush's ability to raise money? He has been extremely good at that at this point. Cheri, I'll start with you.
JACOBUS: Well, he's always been good at that, and that's a very strong point in his favor. So it has to do with money, it has to do with message, it has to do with image. So money does matter.
But ultimately, you know, it is the candidacy of the man and the people around him. And I think that really is President Bush's great strength. The others simply haven't broken through. They're all trying to find some issue to run against this president, which is expected. But they seem to be hanging their hat, many of them, on the weapons of mass destruction, or those 16 words in the State of the Union address that have been controversial in the past few weeks.
The problem is, when weapons of mass destruction are discovered, and/or this body of evidence comes together, the documents pointing to weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which we expect within the next six months, the democrats really have nothing to run on.
So I would just agree that they'll coalesce behind the democratic candidate. I think a year from now there could still be a problem for the democrats.
CALLEBS: Jason, let me ask you. The frustration, the fact that the economy isn't turning around, there are the troubles internationally, and no democrat seems to be able to chip away at the president. Your concerns?
BOXT: I have none at this point. Again, it's July in an odd numbered year before the election next September. We're talking 14 months, 15 months away. I think that there's plenty of time.
I think, even today, news came out that there was more evidence that was either exaggerated or blatantly wrong. I don't think any one thing that we've talked about so far is going to be a problem for the president. I think collectively, though, they get at his credibility. This is a president who asked for a higher standard of truth from the White House. And I think he is now falling on the sword that he slayed Gore with in 2000. I think as we get closer to the primaries, as we get closer to the general election, what really is at stake here for the president is his credibility. This is what his personal approval ratings were based on.
CALLEBS: OK, I want to thank you both very much. Jason Boxt, democratic consultant, as well as Cheri Jacobus. Did I get that name right, Cheri? I hope so.
JACOBUS: Jacobus.
CALLEBS: Jacobus, I apologize. Well, thank you both for joining us here. We appreciate it.
BOXT: Thanks, Sean.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
