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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Ron Brownstein

Aired September 14, 2003 - 09:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


STEPHEN FRAZIER, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to take some time now to discuss politics and this extraordinary California recall election. Both the Democratic and Republican parties in the state are holding their conventions over the weekend. All the big names taking the stage. And there is at least one surprise. So we have invited CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein to join us now from Washington. Ron, welcome back.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good to see you.

FRAZIER: Amazing this weekend. Let's talk first about the Democrats. A show of unity there and a very interesting push for that old idea, which we have not heard much of, that they should vote no for the recall, but if it does not go well, vote yes for Bustamante. Gray Davis seemed to be heartened by that whole idea.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, Gray Davis has resisted that strategy initially, but it's been forced on him by almost all of the Democratic Party, who are concerned, frankly, that he won't get the 50 percent. And they want to have the fallback of Cruz Bustamante. Of course, Bustamante and Davis over the years have not gotten along well, but the Democratic Party seems to be pushing both of them toward this no/yes. The problem, of course, is getting Davis to emphasize the yes on Bustamante, and reminding Bustamante to emphasize the no on recall.

FRAZIER: Interesting body language there. And we are looking at it as you are talking with us here. We are splitting the screen. But let's talk too about the polls on that idea. The idea of voting for the recall, this is the idea that Davis is opposing, pretty high numbers for that. Have you seen these polls?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely. Look, I mean, the recall has been at 50 percent or above in all polls that we have seen. "The L.A. Times" poll that came out last week, which you have up on the screen, was the best one for Davis with the recall at only 50 percent.

Stephen, the problem is this: His job approval rating is only about 33 percent at best, sometimes lower than that. That means he has got to get an awful lot of people, maybe a quarter of the people in the state who say he is doing a bad job as governor to nonetheless vote to keep him in office. I mean, if you look back through the history of elections involving executive office, whether it's governor, mayor or president, it's very hard to get a lot of people who think you are doing a bad job to vote for you. Seems pretty logical. And that's the problem facing Gray Davis right now.

FRAZIER: Indeed. So many people are looking past him to the next step. And that's another thing that the poll asked, is if you were to move beyond Governor Davis, who would you likely choose to replace him? And those numbers were surprising.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, if you look at it right now, you see that the challenge facing the Republican Party is they have two viable candidates in this race, and they have two viable candidates representing very different wings of the party. Neither one of which really wants to stand aside. Arnold Schwarzenegger yesterday, as you know, made a big pitch for Tom McClintock, the state senator who's more conservative, to get out of the race. McClintock fired back very strongly, and this poll shows why. He's rising in the numbers overall, and especially among conservatives, when you look inside that poll, he is now running even with Schwarzenegger among Californians who call themselves conservatives. So he's feeling that his base is solid, his overall support is growing, and for the moment, he's not going anywhere, which leaves Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat, as the beneficiary of this divided Republican vote.

FRAZIER: And that divide is very, very frightening, I guess, to Schwarzenegger's people really applying this kind of squeeze play harder and harder behind the scenes, even more than Schwarzenegger is making it clear openly.

BROWNSTEIN: And -- but look what you saw last night from Tom McClintock. In his press conference was a very forceful comeback, where he said, this is no time for amateurs. And if Schwarzenegger had spent as much time trying to learn the issues as his campaign is spending trying to muscle me out of the race, his candidacy would be in better shape, going right at what has been one of Schwarzenegger's biggest vulnerabilities in all the polls, a sense among many voters, a concern, at least, among many voters, that they have not yet heard enough specifics from him on what he is going to do.

Look, this is going to go on for a little while. If they are going to get McClintock out of the race, I don't think they're going to force him out of the race. I think they are going to have to convince him to step aside for the greater good of the party. And it's not clear that can be done, because a lot of conservatives like the idea of him staying in, raising his visibility, and helping him emerge as the future leader of the party, whatever happens in 2003.

FRAZIER: Down the road. Right. And what do you make of -- or how are voters taking the idea that Arnold Schwarzenegger, an amateur to be kind about it, honest, has surrounded himself with some interesting talent, including for example Warren Buffett, who immediately took a look at property taxes in California and very quietly recommended that maybe they need to go up, and then Arnold disregarded this information.

BROWNSTEIN: Instantly. I mean, look, the problem Schwarzenegger faces is really I think very complex and not an easy one. He is running in a general election, Stephen, and a primary at the same time. So when he associates with Warren Buffett, who is a centrist figure, that's a way of expanding his appeal to the moderate part of the California electorate, which is the dominant center left part of the electorate, but when he did it, Republicans, conservative Republicans instantly rose up in anger. He faces that on almost every issue.

The dynamic of California is that it's a Democratic-leaning state. Schwarzenegger has to appeal to center left voters to win. But every time he does, because McClintock is there, he faces the risk of erosion of his Republican base. It's not an easy problem to solve.

FRAZIER: And let us not, before we go, neglect the fact that it's not an easy state to govern either. It has got to be the most complicated state right now, with its finances and its demographics.

BROWNSTEIN: It's a mess. It is just a mess. The combination of 20 years of voter initiatives on term limits, Proposition 13, that has limited the taxing ability, other restraints on what it requires to raise taxes, you have a very dysfunctional political system right now. And the thought that anybody is going to come in after that, after all the bitterness this engenders, and simply whip the state legislature, which is Democratic-dominated, don't forget, if Schwarzenegger or McClintock came in, they would have to deal with a Democratic- dominated legislature, the thought that all of this is going to come together quickly seems to me a wishful thinking in the extreme.

FRAZIER: Still, a wonderful election to be tracking. And we are grateful for you to be doing that for us this morning. Ron Brownstein, thanks for joining us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 14, 2003 - 09:12   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
STEPHEN FRAZIER, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to take some time now to discuss politics and this extraordinary California recall election. Both the Democratic and Republican parties in the state are holding their conventions over the weekend. All the big names taking the stage. And there is at least one surprise. So we have invited CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein to join us now from Washington. Ron, welcome back.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning. Good to see you.

FRAZIER: Amazing this weekend. Let's talk first about the Democrats. A show of unity there and a very interesting push for that old idea, which we have not heard much of, that they should vote no for the recall, but if it does not go well, vote yes for Bustamante. Gray Davis seemed to be heartened by that whole idea.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, Gray Davis has resisted that strategy initially, but it's been forced on him by almost all of the Democratic Party, who are concerned, frankly, that he won't get the 50 percent. And they want to have the fallback of Cruz Bustamante. Of course, Bustamante and Davis over the years have not gotten along well, but the Democratic Party seems to be pushing both of them toward this no/yes. The problem, of course, is getting Davis to emphasize the yes on Bustamante, and reminding Bustamante to emphasize the no on recall.

FRAZIER: Interesting body language there. And we are looking at it as you are talking with us here. We are splitting the screen. But let's talk too about the polls on that idea. The idea of voting for the recall, this is the idea that Davis is opposing, pretty high numbers for that. Have you seen these polls?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely. Look, I mean, the recall has been at 50 percent or above in all polls that we have seen. "The L.A. Times" poll that came out last week, which you have up on the screen, was the best one for Davis with the recall at only 50 percent.

Stephen, the problem is this: His job approval rating is only about 33 percent at best, sometimes lower than that. That means he has got to get an awful lot of people, maybe a quarter of the people in the state who say he is doing a bad job as governor to nonetheless vote to keep him in office. I mean, if you look back through the history of elections involving executive office, whether it's governor, mayor or president, it's very hard to get a lot of people who think you are doing a bad job to vote for you. Seems pretty logical. And that's the problem facing Gray Davis right now.

FRAZIER: Indeed. So many people are looking past him to the next step. And that's another thing that the poll asked, is if you were to move beyond Governor Davis, who would you likely choose to replace him? And those numbers were surprising.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, if you look at it right now, you see that the challenge facing the Republican Party is they have two viable candidates in this race, and they have two viable candidates representing very different wings of the party. Neither one of which really wants to stand aside. Arnold Schwarzenegger yesterday, as you know, made a big pitch for Tom McClintock, the state senator who's more conservative, to get out of the race. McClintock fired back very strongly, and this poll shows why. He's rising in the numbers overall, and especially among conservatives, when you look inside that poll, he is now running even with Schwarzenegger among Californians who call themselves conservatives. So he's feeling that his base is solid, his overall support is growing, and for the moment, he's not going anywhere, which leaves Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat, as the beneficiary of this divided Republican vote.

FRAZIER: And that divide is very, very frightening, I guess, to Schwarzenegger's people really applying this kind of squeeze play harder and harder behind the scenes, even more than Schwarzenegger is making it clear openly.

BROWNSTEIN: And -- but look what you saw last night from Tom McClintock. In his press conference was a very forceful comeback, where he said, this is no time for amateurs. And if Schwarzenegger had spent as much time trying to learn the issues as his campaign is spending trying to muscle me out of the race, his candidacy would be in better shape, going right at what has been one of Schwarzenegger's biggest vulnerabilities in all the polls, a sense among many voters, a concern, at least, among many voters, that they have not yet heard enough specifics from him on what he is going to do.

Look, this is going to go on for a little while. If they are going to get McClintock out of the race, I don't think they're going to force him out of the race. I think they are going to have to convince him to step aside for the greater good of the party. And it's not clear that can be done, because a lot of conservatives like the idea of him staying in, raising his visibility, and helping him emerge as the future leader of the party, whatever happens in 2003.

FRAZIER: Down the road. Right. And what do you make of -- or how are voters taking the idea that Arnold Schwarzenegger, an amateur to be kind about it, honest, has surrounded himself with some interesting talent, including for example Warren Buffett, who immediately took a look at property taxes in California and very quietly recommended that maybe they need to go up, and then Arnold disregarded this information.

BROWNSTEIN: Instantly. I mean, look, the problem Schwarzenegger faces is really I think very complex and not an easy one. He is running in a general election, Stephen, and a primary at the same time. So when he associates with Warren Buffett, who is a centrist figure, that's a way of expanding his appeal to the moderate part of the California electorate, which is the dominant center left part of the electorate, but when he did it, Republicans, conservative Republicans instantly rose up in anger. He faces that on almost every issue.

The dynamic of California is that it's a Democratic-leaning state. Schwarzenegger has to appeal to center left voters to win. But every time he does, because McClintock is there, he faces the risk of erosion of his Republican base. It's not an easy problem to solve.

FRAZIER: And let us not, before we go, neglect the fact that it's not an easy state to govern either. It has got to be the most complicated state right now, with its finances and its demographics.

BROWNSTEIN: It's a mess. It is just a mess. The combination of 20 years of voter initiatives on term limits, Proposition 13, that has limited the taxing ability, other restraints on what it requires to raise taxes, you have a very dysfunctional political system right now. And the thought that anybody is going to come in after that, after all the bitterness this engenders, and simply whip the state legislature, which is Democratic-dominated, don't forget, if Schwarzenegger or McClintock came in, they would have to deal with a Democratic- dominated legislature, the thought that all of this is going to come together quickly seems to me a wishful thinking in the extreme.

FRAZIER: Still, a wonderful election to be tracking. And we are grateful for you to be doing that for us this morning. Ron Brownstein, thanks for joining us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com