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CNN Sunday Morning

Interview With Karen Tumulty

Aired October 05, 2003 - 07:41   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: There is a lot of California dreaming going on in the minds of candidates in the Golden State. But Arnold Schwarzenegger is the man who seems to be poised to perhaps take the prize.
We want to talk more about the recall, the manifestations, the problems and the pluses. For that, we're joined by "TIME" magazine national political correspondent Karen Tumulty. And she joins us from Washington.

Good morning to you.

KAREN TUMULTY, TIME MAGAZINE: Good morning.

SAVIDGE: Well, let's talk about this race. First of all, you know, for the uninitiated and those that live outside of the borders of California, when you vote on Tuesday, you're voting not just for perhaps the next governor, but you first have to decide if there's going to be a recall, is that correct?

TUMULTY: Exactly. It's a two part ballot. First you decide whether or not you want to throw out Gray Davis, who was by the way, just elected a year ago in California. And then you have this choice of 135 names of who you'd like to replace him.

Now the odd thing about that is that Gray Davis may end up getting something like 49.5 percent of the state voting for him to stay in office. And his replacement could only get 20 percent.

SAVIDGE: So what happens if the people say no, I don't want to have a recall, then what? The rest of the vote doesn't matter?

TUMULTY: Exactly, exactly. And again, you know, it could be a far lower number of people electing a new governor than wanted to keep Gray Davis.

SAVIDGE: OK. Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger, obviously the man in front according to the latest polls, do we know if there was any significant impact of this latest information that's come to light, that people say are allegations against him?

TUMULTY: Well, we really haven't seen any public polling since the whole series of allegations that came out against him of both sexual harassment and statements he'd made in the past about, you know, alleged sympathy with Hitler. We have not seen any public polling on that. The Democrats are saying that they are showing in their internal tracking polls that things are trending back towards Gray Davis. The Republicans are saying there's no movement at all. And the fact is, polling in an environment like this, is almost useless anyway.

SAVIDGE: Well, in some respects, then, it could be that Gray Davis wins because they just believe he's the best of bad choices, if I put it that way.

TUMULTY: That's right. And again, it was -- but it was anger at Gray Davis that got this whole thing started in the first place. The real question is going to be who actually shows up to vote on Tuesday. And that is the one thing that is impossible to predict.

There's something like 400,000 new registered voters in California, just over this issue. And no one knows who these people are, and why they want to vote.

SAVIDGE: Now do we have any indication like what the turnout may be? Or is there anything to read into absentee ballots?

TUMULTY: Well, it's looking like it could be heavy. And again, that's another thing that makes it hard to predict, because California is a state that is simply notorious for voter apathy. Turnout there is usually among the lowest in the country.

So again, this is the big wild card is actually who shows up to vote on Tuesday.

SAVIDGE: And the timing of these allegations against the frontrunner, Arnold Schwarzenegger, are we obviously looking at this to be suspect? Or is that's just the way it goes?

TUMULTY: Well, there's been a lot of debate over that. The fact -- "The Los Angeles Times" says that these were women who did not come forward, who did not, you know, were not offered up by the opponent campaigns.

But the fact is, you know as a journalist, this was a seven week campaign. And I must say that for the paper to do a thorough investigation of these allegations, seven weeks is a very short time period to be operating in.

SAVIDGE: Karen, real quick before you go, is there anything we should be keeping our eyes on? Which campaigns? What indicators before the election now, only just two days away?

TUMULTY: Again, I would be looking for what these -- who are these 400,000 new voters, whether they vote, and again, are these Hispanics who want to have a chance to vote for a Hispanic candidate as the Democratic alternative is?

Are these, you know, young, angry voters who want to get rid of the governor? It's really -- the election is very much in their hands.

SAVIDGE: All right, Karen Tumulty. She is the political correspondent for "TIME" magazine. Thanks very much for talking to us on a Sunday morning.

TUMULTY: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 5, 2003 - 07:41   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN ANCHOR: There is a lot of California dreaming going on in the minds of candidates in the Golden State. But Arnold Schwarzenegger is the man who seems to be poised to perhaps take the prize.
We want to talk more about the recall, the manifestations, the problems and the pluses. For that, we're joined by "TIME" magazine national political correspondent Karen Tumulty. And she joins us from Washington.

Good morning to you.

KAREN TUMULTY, TIME MAGAZINE: Good morning.

SAVIDGE: Well, let's talk about this race. First of all, you know, for the uninitiated and those that live outside of the borders of California, when you vote on Tuesday, you're voting not just for perhaps the next governor, but you first have to decide if there's going to be a recall, is that correct?

TUMULTY: Exactly. It's a two part ballot. First you decide whether or not you want to throw out Gray Davis, who was by the way, just elected a year ago in California. And then you have this choice of 135 names of who you'd like to replace him.

Now the odd thing about that is that Gray Davis may end up getting something like 49.5 percent of the state voting for him to stay in office. And his replacement could only get 20 percent.

SAVIDGE: So what happens if the people say no, I don't want to have a recall, then what? The rest of the vote doesn't matter?

TUMULTY: Exactly, exactly. And again, you know, it could be a far lower number of people electing a new governor than wanted to keep Gray Davis.

SAVIDGE: OK. Well, Arnold Schwarzenegger, obviously the man in front according to the latest polls, do we know if there was any significant impact of this latest information that's come to light, that people say are allegations against him?

TUMULTY: Well, we really haven't seen any public polling since the whole series of allegations that came out against him of both sexual harassment and statements he'd made in the past about, you know, alleged sympathy with Hitler. We have not seen any public polling on that. The Democrats are saying that they are showing in their internal tracking polls that things are trending back towards Gray Davis. The Republicans are saying there's no movement at all. And the fact is, polling in an environment like this, is almost useless anyway.

SAVIDGE: Well, in some respects, then, it could be that Gray Davis wins because they just believe he's the best of bad choices, if I put it that way.

TUMULTY: That's right. And again, it was -- but it was anger at Gray Davis that got this whole thing started in the first place. The real question is going to be who actually shows up to vote on Tuesday. And that is the one thing that is impossible to predict.

There's something like 400,000 new registered voters in California, just over this issue. And no one knows who these people are, and why they want to vote.

SAVIDGE: Now do we have any indication like what the turnout may be? Or is there anything to read into absentee ballots?

TUMULTY: Well, it's looking like it could be heavy. And again, that's another thing that makes it hard to predict, because California is a state that is simply notorious for voter apathy. Turnout there is usually among the lowest in the country.

So again, this is the big wild card is actually who shows up to vote on Tuesday.

SAVIDGE: And the timing of these allegations against the frontrunner, Arnold Schwarzenegger, are we obviously looking at this to be suspect? Or is that's just the way it goes?

TUMULTY: Well, there's been a lot of debate over that. The fact -- "The Los Angeles Times" says that these were women who did not come forward, who did not, you know, were not offered up by the opponent campaigns.

But the fact is, you know as a journalist, this was a seven week campaign. And I must say that for the paper to do a thorough investigation of these allegations, seven weeks is a very short time period to be operating in.

SAVIDGE: Karen, real quick before you go, is there anything we should be keeping our eyes on? Which campaigns? What indicators before the election now, only just two days away?

TUMULTY: Again, I would be looking for what these -- who are these 400,000 new voters, whether they vote, and again, are these Hispanics who want to have a chance to vote for a Hispanic candidate as the Democratic alternative is?

Are these, you know, young, angry voters who want to get rid of the governor? It's really -- the election is very much in their hands.

SAVIDGE: All right, Karen Tumulty. She is the political correspondent for "TIME" magazine. Thanks very much for talking to us on a Sunday morning.

TUMULTY: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com