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CNN Sunday Morning
The Year in Politics
Aired December 28, 2003 - 09:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: From debating Democrats to the recall free-for-all in California, politics in America was hardly ever dull this year.
And here to give us a political review, joining us from the City of the Angels, Ron Brownstein, a CNN analyst and correspondent with "The L.A. Times." He's live in New York, actually, I'm told now.
Ken Rudin, political editor from NPR. He is joining us from Washington, D.C.
Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks very much.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
KEN RUDIN, POLITICAL EDITOR, NPR: Good morning.
CALLEBS: Let's begin talking about President Bush, shall we? Landing on the aircraft carrier, getting out, strutting in the fighter jock outfits, one of the more enduring images that people are going to remember from the past year.
Ken, let me begin with you. If they had not nabbed Saddam Hussein, what would that be doing right now to the president?
RUDIN: Well, I think nabbing Saddam Hussein is a great thing. But, of course, stopping the killing and stopping the American death there every day would have -- seems to be happening every day, is a big thing too. So while capturing Saddam did give a boost to President Bush's ratings, I don't know what it tells for 2004.
You know, if you looked at his year this year, it's basically a rollercoaster ride...
CALLEBS: It really was.
RUDIN: ..with his polls going up, and then during the summer, when the numbers were going down, including because of the economy. So it's been a rocky road for President Bush. But certainly he goes into 2004 looking much better than he did several months ago.
CALLEBS: Yes, how about that, Ron? The Dow is above 10,000 right now. Things looking somewhat better. But still mired in Iraq with no clear picture of where the U.S. is going and when they'll be able to get out. BROWNSTEIN: Well, there are two big fronts in this election: there's Iraq and the economy. And I agree with Ken on both. The president has been on something of a rollercoaster.
The capture of Saddam, I think, buys the president a period of grace. Part of the reasons why the numbers were going down for him in terms of public support for the war, was not only the level of casualties, the concern that the mission itself was faltering. And many political scientists think that is the key. People will accept casualties if it's for a purpose that they think is being achieved. Capturing Saddam, I think, will restore the public sense that he's making progress, but that's an asset that doesn't last indefinitely. If the violence continues, you know, through next summer, I believe it will erode again.
On the economy, you've got a very mixed picture here. You have the overall growth numbers improving and you have the stock market recovering very well. But job growth is still lagging. So one of the things we're going to see in 2004 is how much weight people put on the stock market when judging how the economy is doing and how much they put on the employment market.
CALLEBS: Ken, your thoughts on that, and also the fact that right now, a lot of people are saying, 11 months until the election and President Bush is doing very well right now. Unless there is a major change, it looks like he is going to be the candidate to beat.
RUDIN: Well, he is the candidate to beat. I think the definition of an incumbent president running for re-election is that it's always -- the election is always a referendum on that incumbent. That's certainly the case with George Bush.
CALLEBS: Right.
RUDIN: Again, I agree with everything that Ron just said, but I think it's very interesting that it seems like the Democrats, the best issue they have is Iraq, and the Republicans are focusing on the economy and it's exactly the opposite of what we thought a year ago. We thought that President Bush would have a quick, easy victory in Iraq and perhaps a triumphant victory, whereas the economy, which burdened his father in 1991-92 would be the Achilles heel for the Republicans.
CALLEBS: You know, but 11 months is a long time. It's a long time.
RUDIN: As President Muskie - as President Muskie would tell you, it's a long time? That's right.
BROWNSTEIN: But, as we say, Sean, what's fascinating is that Iraq has shaped the Democratic race as well. Really, more than anything else...
CALLEBS: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: It was the opposition to the war in Iraq that crystallized Howard Dean's argument that "the Washington Democrats," as he called them, had failed to stand up to President Bush strongly enough and allowed him to capitalize on the discontent in the party about that.
President bush is a very polarizing figure. His approval rating among Republicans is over 90 percent consistent. It's at Ronald Reagan-like level. But it's down in the 20 to 25 percent range among Democrats. They don't like him.
CALLEBS: OK.
BROWNSTEIN: Howard Dean tapped into that both on the Internet and in his organizing, and Iraq really allowed him to emerge as well.
CALLEBS: OK, gentlemen, hang on just one second, because we have really one of the defining moments of Howard Dean, when he first began to make headlines and waves. I think we're going to go to that now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Howard Dean and I'm here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CALLEBS: How about that? Ken, I'll pick up with you. I mean, he really made a statement there and a lot of people are embracing that.
RUDIN: Well, basically, what that statement means is that the Democratic Party should not be Republicans lite. Dean and many liberal Democrats felt that what happened in 2002, the reason for so many Democrats lost their seats in the House and the Senate was because they tried to ape (ph) or co-opt the Republicans on many of their issues, and Howard Dean says, No, we should stand for something.
But what's very interesting about Howard Dean, his anger -- we keep hearing his anger and his passion about Republicans. He's angry towards many Democrats. He's angry towards the DOC, the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. He's angry towards basically the Clintonesque role of the past, you know, during the Clinton administration.
So it's good. He excites the base by attacking Bush. But basically, he should worry because he needs a united party to beat this president in 2004.
CALLEBS: Right, and Ron, right now, a lot of people are saying anybody but Dean?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, right. But the problem the opponents of Howard Dean have is that it really hasn't - the opposition -- there is a lot of concern about Dean. There's a very mixed feeling in the party. About half the party thinks this is absolutely essential to nominate him, to sort of purify the party, return it to its core principles. And there's a big chunk that worries that he is an easy mark for George Bush.
The problem that other side has is they haven't unified between any one candidate. And the way the calendar is working out, with Dean ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire -- it's not given, it's not a guarantee that anybody really does emerge as a unified source of opposition to him, it may be that he keeps the opposition fractured until it's too late for anybody to stop him.
CALLEBS: Ken, if Dean continues to raise money over the Internet, does -- wins big in the caucuses and the primary, what is that going to do for him? Will anybody -- will other Democratic candidate in that entire field be able to distinguish him or herself?
RUBIN: Well, you know, we always like -- I think the media's probably one the reasons we like to talk about this great "Stop Dean" candidacy.
First of all, when you stop -- when you have a stop anybody candidacy -- they tried it with McGovern in '72, they tried it with Carter in '76 -- you have to have somebody to stop somebody. And, of course, as Ron says, if you have a fractured Democratic field, you're not going to stop him.
But if Howard Dean -- I mean, first of all, we've already anointed Howard Dean as the next Democratic nominee. Not one person has voted yet. But assume he does win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19, he looks good in New Hampshire - double-digit lead in New Hampshire -- on January 27. If he does well in the February 3 primaries, I just can't see -- I mean, we talk about who can stop him. Well, I can't see anybody there who can do it.
CALLEBS: OK. Ken Rudin, NPR -- NPR political director. I'm sorry about that. And Ron Brownstein, CNN analyst for us. Thanks very much. I apologize guys, I did a bad job of being traffic cop here. We didn't get to Schwarzenegger, but they'll be plenty of time for that in the coming weeks ahead. Appreciate it.
BROWNSTEIN: All right. Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 28, 2003 - 09:13 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN ANCHOR: From debating Democrats to the recall free-for-all in California, politics in America was hardly ever dull this year.
And here to give us a political review, joining us from the City of the Angels, Ron Brownstein, a CNN analyst and correspondent with "The L.A. Times." He's live in New York, actually, I'm told now.
Ken Rudin, political editor from NPR. He is joining us from Washington, D.C.
Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks very much.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
KEN RUDIN, POLITICAL EDITOR, NPR: Good morning.
CALLEBS: Let's begin talking about President Bush, shall we? Landing on the aircraft carrier, getting out, strutting in the fighter jock outfits, one of the more enduring images that people are going to remember from the past year.
Ken, let me begin with you. If they had not nabbed Saddam Hussein, what would that be doing right now to the president?
RUDIN: Well, I think nabbing Saddam Hussein is a great thing. But, of course, stopping the killing and stopping the American death there every day would have -- seems to be happening every day, is a big thing too. So while capturing Saddam did give a boost to President Bush's ratings, I don't know what it tells for 2004.
You know, if you looked at his year this year, it's basically a rollercoaster ride...
CALLEBS: It really was.
RUDIN: ..with his polls going up, and then during the summer, when the numbers were going down, including because of the economy. So it's been a rocky road for President Bush. But certainly he goes into 2004 looking much better than he did several months ago.
CALLEBS: Yes, how about that, Ron? The Dow is above 10,000 right now. Things looking somewhat better. But still mired in Iraq with no clear picture of where the U.S. is going and when they'll be able to get out. BROWNSTEIN: Well, there are two big fronts in this election: there's Iraq and the economy. And I agree with Ken on both. The president has been on something of a rollercoaster.
The capture of Saddam, I think, buys the president a period of grace. Part of the reasons why the numbers were going down for him in terms of public support for the war, was not only the level of casualties, the concern that the mission itself was faltering. And many political scientists think that is the key. People will accept casualties if it's for a purpose that they think is being achieved. Capturing Saddam, I think, will restore the public sense that he's making progress, but that's an asset that doesn't last indefinitely. If the violence continues, you know, through next summer, I believe it will erode again.
On the economy, you've got a very mixed picture here. You have the overall growth numbers improving and you have the stock market recovering very well. But job growth is still lagging. So one of the things we're going to see in 2004 is how much weight people put on the stock market when judging how the economy is doing and how much they put on the employment market.
CALLEBS: Ken, your thoughts on that, and also the fact that right now, a lot of people are saying, 11 months until the election and President Bush is doing very well right now. Unless there is a major change, it looks like he is going to be the candidate to beat.
RUDIN: Well, he is the candidate to beat. I think the definition of an incumbent president running for re-election is that it's always -- the election is always a referendum on that incumbent. That's certainly the case with George Bush.
CALLEBS: Right.
RUDIN: Again, I agree with everything that Ron just said, but I think it's very interesting that it seems like the Democrats, the best issue they have is Iraq, and the Republicans are focusing on the economy and it's exactly the opposite of what we thought a year ago. We thought that President Bush would have a quick, easy victory in Iraq and perhaps a triumphant victory, whereas the economy, which burdened his father in 1991-92 would be the Achilles heel for the Republicans.
CALLEBS: You know, but 11 months is a long time. It's a long time.
RUDIN: As President Muskie - as President Muskie would tell you, it's a long time? That's right.
BROWNSTEIN: But, as we say, Sean, what's fascinating is that Iraq has shaped the Democratic race as well. Really, more than anything else...
CALLEBS: Right.
BROWNSTEIN: It was the opposition to the war in Iraq that crystallized Howard Dean's argument that "the Washington Democrats," as he called them, had failed to stand up to President Bush strongly enough and allowed him to capitalize on the discontent in the party about that.
President bush is a very polarizing figure. His approval rating among Republicans is over 90 percent consistent. It's at Ronald Reagan-like level. But it's down in the 20 to 25 percent range among Democrats. They don't like him.
CALLEBS: OK.
BROWNSTEIN: Howard Dean tapped into that both on the Internet and in his organizing, and Iraq really allowed him to emerge as well.
CALLEBS: OK, gentlemen, hang on just one second, because we have really one of the defining moments of Howard Dean, when he first began to make headlines and waves. I think we're going to go to that now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Howard Dean and I'm here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CALLEBS: How about that? Ken, I'll pick up with you. I mean, he really made a statement there and a lot of people are embracing that.
RUDIN: Well, basically, what that statement means is that the Democratic Party should not be Republicans lite. Dean and many liberal Democrats felt that what happened in 2002, the reason for so many Democrats lost their seats in the House and the Senate was because they tried to ape (ph) or co-opt the Republicans on many of their issues, and Howard Dean says, No, we should stand for something.
But what's very interesting about Howard Dean, his anger -- we keep hearing his anger and his passion about Republicans. He's angry towards many Democrats. He's angry towards the DOC, the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. He's angry towards basically the Clintonesque role of the past, you know, during the Clinton administration.
So it's good. He excites the base by attacking Bush. But basically, he should worry because he needs a united party to beat this president in 2004.
CALLEBS: Right, and Ron, right now, a lot of people are saying anybody but Dean?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, right. But the problem the opponents of Howard Dean have is that it really hasn't - the opposition -- there is a lot of concern about Dean. There's a very mixed feeling in the party. About half the party thinks this is absolutely essential to nominate him, to sort of purify the party, return it to its core principles. And there's a big chunk that worries that he is an easy mark for George Bush.
The problem that other side has is they haven't unified between any one candidate. And the way the calendar is working out, with Dean ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire -- it's not given, it's not a guarantee that anybody really does emerge as a unified source of opposition to him, it may be that he keeps the opposition fractured until it's too late for anybody to stop him.
CALLEBS: Ken, if Dean continues to raise money over the Internet, does -- wins big in the caucuses and the primary, what is that going to do for him? Will anybody -- will other Democratic candidate in that entire field be able to distinguish him or herself?
RUBIN: Well, you know, we always like -- I think the media's probably one the reasons we like to talk about this great "Stop Dean" candidacy.
First of all, when you stop -- when you have a stop anybody candidacy -- they tried it with McGovern in '72, they tried it with Carter in '76 -- you have to have somebody to stop somebody. And, of course, as Ron says, if you have a fractured Democratic field, you're not going to stop him.
But if Howard Dean -- I mean, first of all, we've already anointed Howard Dean as the next Democratic nominee. Not one person has voted yet. But assume he does win the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19, he looks good in New Hampshire - double-digit lead in New Hampshire -- on January 27. If he does well in the February 3 primaries, I just can't see -- I mean, we talk about who can stop him. Well, I can't see anybody there who can do it.
CALLEBS: OK. Ken Rudin, NPR -- NPR political director. I'm sorry about that. And Ron Brownstein, CNN analyst for us. Thanks very much. I apologize guys, I did a bad job of being traffic cop here. We didn't get to Schwarzenegger, but they'll be plenty of time for that in the coming weeks ahead. Appreciate it.
BROWNSTEIN: All right. Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
