Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Sunday Morning
Talk to CNN
Aired January 25, 2004 - 09:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to talk politics now. As everybody knows, the season started a few months ago for the candidates, reporters and pundits. The voters are finally into it. Last Monday night in Iowa, this coming Tuesday, of course, in New Hampshire.
JASON CARROLL, CNN ANCHOR: Two members of our "CAPITAL GANG" have answers to your e-mail questions about the issues and, of course, the candidates. From Manchester, New Hampshire, Al Hunt of the "Wall Street Journal" and syndicated columnist Mark Shields.
Thanks, guys, for joining us this morning.
AL HUNT, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": Good to be with you.
MARK SHIELDS, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Good to be with you.
COLLINS: We've got lots of e-mails to get to, guys, want to go ahead and start. The very first one we have coming to us from Steve right there in New Hampshire. He says, "Assuming Kerry wins big in Tuesday's primary and Dean edges out Clark by a couple of points, which state or states do you believe will be pivotal for the serious contenders in the February 3 primaries?"
So looking a little bit ahead here, even further than Tuesday. What do you think?
HUNT: That's a terrific question. I'll tell you something, that's a question that's being asked in every campaign headquarters tonight. To some extent it depends on which state the candidates want to make pivotal. If they all center on one state, South Carolina, for instance, that becomes pivotal. But a key decision that John Kerry in particular has to make is what states on February 3, a week after New Hampshire, will he focus on? You can't focus on seven, you don't have money to buy in states like Missouri and Edwards has a head start in South Carolina. It's a tough call.
SHIELDS: To some degree, it's out of their control, I think. I agree with Al, but it's out of their control in the sense that South Carolina is going to get a lot of attention because next Thursday night there's a debate in South Carolina and all of the candidates competing will be there. South Carolina has the tradition of four years ago, it was pivotal in the McCain-Bush race among Republicans and we are terribly creatures of habit. And I think Missouri will get attention for this reason, that it was Dick Gephardt's territory and now it's open. So each candidate, every candidate, is starting there right from the same position. It isn't like any one of them has an advantage, you can say Kerry or Dean might have in New England over John Edwards; they're all in the same boat there. I think those two will get probably more attention than the others.
CARROLL: All right, let's take this next one; this comes from a viewer from San Diego. He says, "Just saw a round table of campaign guys, where the recurring theme was electability. I don't want to rain on anybody's parade but I lived in the South for 12 years and I'm afraid John Kerry's exemplary war record is going to be overshadowed by the medals over the wall deal. His campaign guy said he'd easily win in the South because of his war hero status." What about that?
HUNT: I don't agree that any democratic candidate can easily win in the south. I think John Kerry will have, if he should be the nominee, would have a tough time. I think what is -- what his veteran status, what his war hero status does, it gives him a hearing in some southern audiences that he wouldn't otherwise have. I think what John Kerry, if he were to be the nominee, needs to be is competitive in three or four southern states. I suspect the only way he'll do that is with a choice of a running mate.
SHIELDS: Let me just add, that I think it's interesting electability really is upper most. You talk to voters, talked to a Wesley Clark voter yesterday, they said, were you bothered at all in any way about the fact that Clark had supported, voted for Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and said, nope, we got to win back people who did, those Reagan democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan.
So electability is central. If electability had been dominant in the 2000 election, which it wasn't, then Democrats would have nominated Bradley who is far more electable than Al Gore, and Republicans would have elected John McCain, who is far more electable than George Bush.
You can see it among Democrats this time. That's certainly helping Kerry, a "Newsweek" poll come out for the first time shows any Democrat leading President Bush, and that Democrat is John Kerry. But make no mistake about it, the South is going to be tough territory for any democratic nominee, and including, and probably most especially one from New England and the northeast.
COLLINS: Mark, let's talk about that just for a second, because this word "electability" we have heard so very much about throughout all of this so far. I expect we'll hear more about it in the days to come. Doesn't electability, though, mean something a little bit different to every voter?
SHIELDS: Well I think it does. I think it does mean something different. But it's remarkable how almost strategically voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, when you talk to them, are thinking this year, Democratic voters. They're saying, look, I might have problems with Kerry on the war, some are people leaning to Howard Dean who had showed great rage and opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and occupation of Iraq, but there's a sense of, well, beating George Bush is more important, and I think John Kerry has the best chance. Or John Edwards has the best chance. I think to some considerable degree, I think Al would agree, it has fueled Edwards. Edwards has great appeal but people second, as soon as they mention that appeal, always talk about the fact that he is a southerner is and is electable. So it does have a different eye in each voter, but it seems to be a central theme, and important to all of them.
CARROLL: All right. Al, let's take one more quick e-mail question, if we could. This comes from Nancy from Tacoma Park. "How seriously do New Hampshire residents take their role as the first Americans who are able to make a stand for a Democratic candidate to challenge this president? How many actually turn out to vote on average?"
HUNT: Well, I think they expect a turnout of over 200,000 people next Tuesday, on a percentage basis that will be very large. They take it very, very seriously up here.
You can caricature the New Hampshire primary, make jokes, we all do that. I tell you, the other day I was driving from Manchester to Concord and went through a tollbooth, didn't have the exact change to pay the dollar and the tollbooth operator engaged me in conversations about the primary. So these people take it very seriously.
I've been to four or five town hall meetings over the last several days and every one of them there was an overflow crowd. You have to have another -- the candidate has to go from speaking to the main crowd to speaking to the overflow crowd. They take it quite seriously up here.
CARROLL: Lots of independent voters in New Hampshire as well. I'm wondering if you have any idea what type of influence they're going to have on the final outcome.
SHIELDS: I think the independent voters were decisive up here in 2000 for John McCain, when he carried the state by 46,000 votes over President Bush. And that's a question.
Early speculation had been that Howard Dean had a reach among independents that his rivals couldn't match. But as Dean's numbers have come down, that theory has been open to question and open to scrutiny. But John Edwards has shown some appeal to independents, so has John Kerry. And they could very well, in this state where independents can vote in either party's primary, could be decisive Tuesday.
COLLINS: All right, gentlemen, unfortunately -- go ahead, Al.
HUNT: I just want to go back to the point about wanting a winner in the fall. There's a great bumper sticker up here that says, "Dated Dean, Married Kerry." That's what that says.
COLLINS: Interesting.
Unfortunately, we are out of time, guys. We certainly appreciate all of your insights. We look forward to talking to you once again and giving us heads up about what actually does happen on Tuesday as all eyes look to New Hampshire.
Mark Shields, Al Hunt, thanks again, guys. Appreciate your time.
SHIELDS: Thanks, Heidi. Thanks, Jason.
HUNT: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 25, 2004 - 09:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to talk politics now. As everybody knows, the season started a few months ago for the candidates, reporters and pundits. The voters are finally into it. Last Monday night in Iowa, this coming Tuesday, of course, in New Hampshire.
JASON CARROLL, CNN ANCHOR: Two members of our "CAPITAL GANG" have answers to your e-mail questions about the issues and, of course, the candidates. From Manchester, New Hampshire, Al Hunt of the "Wall Street Journal" and syndicated columnist Mark Shields.
Thanks, guys, for joining us this morning.
AL HUNT, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": Good to be with you.
MARK SHIELDS, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Good to be with you.
COLLINS: We've got lots of e-mails to get to, guys, want to go ahead and start. The very first one we have coming to us from Steve right there in New Hampshire. He says, "Assuming Kerry wins big in Tuesday's primary and Dean edges out Clark by a couple of points, which state or states do you believe will be pivotal for the serious contenders in the February 3 primaries?"
So looking a little bit ahead here, even further than Tuesday. What do you think?
HUNT: That's a terrific question. I'll tell you something, that's a question that's being asked in every campaign headquarters tonight. To some extent it depends on which state the candidates want to make pivotal. If they all center on one state, South Carolina, for instance, that becomes pivotal. But a key decision that John Kerry in particular has to make is what states on February 3, a week after New Hampshire, will he focus on? You can't focus on seven, you don't have money to buy in states like Missouri and Edwards has a head start in South Carolina. It's a tough call.
SHIELDS: To some degree, it's out of their control, I think. I agree with Al, but it's out of their control in the sense that South Carolina is going to get a lot of attention because next Thursday night there's a debate in South Carolina and all of the candidates competing will be there. South Carolina has the tradition of four years ago, it was pivotal in the McCain-Bush race among Republicans and we are terribly creatures of habit. And I think Missouri will get attention for this reason, that it was Dick Gephardt's territory and now it's open. So each candidate, every candidate, is starting there right from the same position. It isn't like any one of them has an advantage, you can say Kerry or Dean might have in New England over John Edwards; they're all in the same boat there. I think those two will get probably more attention than the others.
CARROLL: All right, let's take this next one; this comes from a viewer from San Diego. He says, "Just saw a round table of campaign guys, where the recurring theme was electability. I don't want to rain on anybody's parade but I lived in the South for 12 years and I'm afraid John Kerry's exemplary war record is going to be overshadowed by the medals over the wall deal. His campaign guy said he'd easily win in the South because of his war hero status." What about that?
HUNT: I don't agree that any democratic candidate can easily win in the south. I think John Kerry will have, if he should be the nominee, would have a tough time. I think what is -- what his veteran status, what his war hero status does, it gives him a hearing in some southern audiences that he wouldn't otherwise have. I think what John Kerry, if he were to be the nominee, needs to be is competitive in three or four southern states. I suspect the only way he'll do that is with a choice of a running mate.
SHIELDS: Let me just add, that I think it's interesting electability really is upper most. You talk to voters, talked to a Wesley Clark voter yesterday, they said, were you bothered at all in any way about the fact that Clark had supported, voted for Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and said, nope, we got to win back people who did, those Reagan democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan.
So electability is central. If electability had been dominant in the 2000 election, which it wasn't, then Democrats would have nominated Bradley who is far more electable than Al Gore, and Republicans would have elected John McCain, who is far more electable than George Bush.
You can see it among Democrats this time. That's certainly helping Kerry, a "Newsweek" poll come out for the first time shows any Democrat leading President Bush, and that Democrat is John Kerry. But make no mistake about it, the South is going to be tough territory for any democratic nominee, and including, and probably most especially one from New England and the northeast.
COLLINS: Mark, let's talk about that just for a second, because this word "electability" we have heard so very much about throughout all of this so far. I expect we'll hear more about it in the days to come. Doesn't electability, though, mean something a little bit different to every voter?
SHIELDS: Well I think it does. I think it does mean something different. But it's remarkable how almost strategically voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, when you talk to them, are thinking this year, Democratic voters. They're saying, look, I might have problems with Kerry on the war, some are people leaning to Howard Dean who had showed great rage and opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and occupation of Iraq, but there's a sense of, well, beating George Bush is more important, and I think John Kerry has the best chance. Or John Edwards has the best chance. I think to some considerable degree, I think Al would agree, it has fueled Edwards. Edwards has great appeal but people second, as soon as they mention that appeal, always talk about the fact that he is a southerner is and is electable. So it does have a different eye in each voter, but it seems to be a central theme, and important to all of them.
CARROLL: All right. Al, let's take one more quick e-mail question, if we could. This comes from Nancy from Tacoma Park. "How seriously do New Hampshire residents take their role as the first Americans who are able to make a stand for a Democratic candidate to challenge this president? How many actually turn out to vote on average?"
HUNT: Well, I think they expect a turnout of over 200,000 people next Tuesday, on a percentage basis that will be very large. They take it very, very seriously up here.
You can caricature the New Hampshire primary, make jokes, we all do that. I tell you, the other day I was driving from Manchester to Concord and went through a tollbooth, didn't have the exact change to pay the dollar and the tollbooth operator engaged me in conversations about the primary. So these people take it very seriously.
I've been to four or five town hall meetings over the last several days and every one of them there was an overflow crowd. You have to have another -- the candidate has to go from speaking to the main crowd to speaking to the overflow crowd. They take it quite seriously up here.
CARROLL: Lots of independent voters in New Hampshire as well. I'm wondering if you have any idea what type of influence they're going to have on the final outcome.
SHIELDS: I think the independent voters were decisive up here in 2000 for John McCain, when he carried the state by 46,000 votes over President Bush. And that's a question.
Early speculation had been that Howard Dean had a reach among independents that his rivals couldn't match. But as Dean's numbers have come down, that theory has been open to question and open to scrutiny. But John Edwards has shown some appeal to independents, so has John Kerry. And they could very well, in this state where independents can vote in either party's primary, could be decisive Tuesday.
COLLINS: All right, gentlemen, unfortunately -- go ahead, Al.
HUNT: I just want to go back to the point about wanting a winner in the fall. There's a great bumper sticker up here that says, "Dated Dean, Married Kerry." That's what that says.
COLLINS: Interesting.
Unfortunately, we are out of time, guys. We certainly appreciate all of your insights. We look forward to talking to you once again and giving us heads up about what actually does happen on Tuesday as all eyes look to New Hampshire.
Mark Shields, Al Hunt, thanks again, guys. Appreciate your time.
SHIELDS: Thanks, Heidi. Thanks, Jason.
HUNT: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
