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CNN Sunday Morning
Writers' Strike to End?; Surprise Primary Wins; Social Networking Web Sites; Why Marriage Matters
Aired February 10, 2008 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN NEWS ANCHOR: A surprise Saturday following Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama gain on the so-called frontrunners in the presidential race.
T.J. HOLMES, CNN NEWS ANCHOR: Also, can you call in sick from space? We have a guy up there not feeling too well. And you might not be feeling too well if you were riding high above the earth doing back-flips. We got a space walk that is scrubbed because of an astronaut's illness.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
They'll have funerals today and half of my congregation won't be at church because they're going to be attending the funerals.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NGUYEN: A Sunday of sadness and some hope for people just devastated by tornados. From the CNN Center, right here in Atlanta brining you news from all around the world, good morning, everybody, I'm Betty Nguyen.
HOLMES: Good morning to you all, I'm T.J. Holmes. This February 10th, let's get you caught up, let's get you informed right now and we'll start in politics and a bit of a political surprise last evening. Mike Huckabee stealing some headlines from the person who was supposed to be the frontrunner, John McCain.
NGUYEN: Right, but Huckabee wasn't alone in logging an impressive win, yesterday, several of them, in fact. Barack Obama supporters must have tired hands from all of the clapping at those victory parties. Let's get more from CNN's Wolf Blitzer, part of the test political team on TV.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN NEWS ANCHOR (voice over): A clean sweep for Barack Obama.
SEN BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We won in Louisiana. We won in Nebraska. We won in Washington State. We won North, we won South, we won in between.
BLITZER: The senator from Illinois topped rival Hillary Clinton by double digits in Louisiana's Democratic primary and beat her more than 2-1 in caucuses in Washington State and Nebraska. The senator from New York didn't mention her losses in a speech Saturday night. Instead, she concentrated her fire on the Republicans.
SEN HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I'm your nominee, you'll never have to worry I'll be knocked out of the ring, because I do have the strength and experience to lead this country and I am ready to go, toe-to-toe with senator McCain, whenever, and wherever he desires.
BLITZER: The Clinton campaign is looking ahead to next month, Expecting to fare much better in two delegate-rich states, Texas and Ohio.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We had a big day today.
BLITZER: An understatement for Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor topped John McCain by more than 2-1 in caucuses in Kansas, an embarrassing defeat for the overwhelming frontrunner in the battle for the Republican presidential nominations.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People don't want to be told who their president is going to be. And in the Republican Party, people want to make a choice, they don't want somebody else making the decision for them and they are tired of hearing somebody say: Oh, well, he's the presumptive nominee.
BLITZER: McCain's campaign said that senator from Arizona is still the party's reprumtive nominee, but he's having trouble courting conservative voters, a problem he'S acknowledged.
SEN JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We go a lot of work to do to energize our base.
BLITZER (on camera): He edged out McCain in Louisiana, now the campaign moves to Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia which hold primaries on Tuesday.
Wolf Blitzer at the CNN Election Center in New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
NGUYEN: Well, not a break for the candidates after a busy Saturday, today we have the Maine Democratic caucuses, so you definitely want to stay with CNN later today for results and coming up in about 25 minutes, I'm going to take a closer look how young voters are using the Internet to get organized and involved. Again, that's coming up in about 25 minutes.
HOLMES: Well, in space, nobody can hear you when you heave. A sick shuttle astronaut now causing some delays in space, but NASA doesn't really want to talk about it. Well, we want to talk about it. I want to talk about it and our space correspondent Miles O'Brien is here to talk about it.
What is wrong with this guy? What's going on up there/
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN SPACE CORRESPONDENT: Well, they won't say and they probably -- NASA would like to give the heave-ho to that lead in, probably, T.J., as a matter of fact. But, we can read between the lines on this one and we'll tell you what's going on.
First of all, no spacewalk, today. There was supposed to be one crucial spacewalk to help install this $2 billion European laboratory called "Columbus." Not going to happen. And when it happens tomorrow, it's not happen with the guy you're you about to see, Hans Schlegel. Take a look at him right now.
We actually saw him today. If you can remove the banner, Dee, please, so we can get a good shot. He's actually doing a little high hydrating there. And we all know how important that is if you've had a little of a problem with nausea. But, he was there helping his backup get ready for the spacewalk. Stan Love will take his place tomorrow and be involved in this spacewalk to connect this laboratory to the International Space Station.
There you see him in training, Hans Schlegel, this is his second flight. He flew back in 1993. We don't know how he fared in that case, but we do know this, half of all astronauts suffer space adaptation syndrome. Motion sick innocence space, usually it dissipates after three or four days, maximum, in space. We're in flight day four, right now. He is scheduled for another spacewalk, later. It's unclear whether he will be up for that task, but just looking at him in those images from this morning, seems like he is on the mend.
Nonetheless, it's been a long while since there's a spacewalk that's been delayed or canceled or modified in such a way like this. As a matter of fact, you have to go back to 1982, the fifth shuttle mission on "Columbia" Bill Lenore, there, was very ill. You see him there eating peanuts. But, he was very ill and was unable to conduct what would have been the first spacewalk of the space shuttle program. There was some problems with the suit, as well, but that said, he was too ill to go outside.
Obviously, not a good thing to be in a closed suit and nauseous and perhaps worse.
Now quickly, I want to tell you what they're going to be looking at on the outside of the space shuttle. There are a couple areas of concern. In the back area, here, primarily is what we're talking about this morning. A piece of blanket, we talked about this blanket last Summer, it's this kind of material that protects the less heated areas of the shuttle as it comes. Kind of has a tendency to stick in one place, has memory.
Take a look at the image which came down from space. They're going to be getting better stuff, today. But you can see it right there, there's a little piece of it that is just kind of lifting up. We don't even know the scale of this or whether it's a big deal. We'll know more a little bit later today.
So, T.J., no space walk today, it'll be tomorrow. Different players and we'll see how the mission unfolds. HOLMES: OK you -- and again, even if it was just the (INAUDIBLE) astronauts getting nauseous up there, they have that problem, even if that is the case with him, still, NASA wouldn't tell us about it. So, it's no reason for us to read anything more into it if they're not telling us.
O'BRIEN: Yeah, you know, unfortunately, they have strict rules about not sharing private medical information and what that can do is get people spun up in ways that they think it's a bigger deal than it is, when it's this guy who's a little motion sick, which you can understand happens in space in zero gravity.
HOLMES: Yeah, doing back-flips in the space shuttle, I would guess, probably would do that to you. Miles O'Brien for us this morning, we appreciate you.
O'BRIEN: All right.
NGUYEN: Well, an emergency evacuation is underway in the North Sea, at this hour. A security alert was issued on a British oil rig, there, and that sent military helicopters and a bomb squad to the rig, which is about 175 miles off the coast of Scotland. The helicopters, well, they are evacuating more than 500 workers from the oil rig.
NGUYEN: In the meantime, paying final respects. Crowds turned out for funeral services yesterday for three of the five victims for last week's mall shooting in suburban Chicago. One for 22-year-old Sarah Szafranski, another for a store manager Rhoda McFarland and a third for real estate broker, Connie Woolfolk.
After speaking with the sole survivor, police was able to release this composite drawing of the suspected shooter. They're looking for an African-American man between 5'9" and 6' tall, between 200 and 230 pounds with thick braided hair and a receding hairline.
HOLMES: Got some new video to show you this morning and what authorities are now investigating as a possible hate crime. Federal agents say a fire that destroyed a mosque yesterday in Columbia, Tennessee, was probably arson. The outside, as you see there, the building defaced with swastikas and graffiti that said "white power" also "we run the world."
Residents say the small nondescript building had never been targeted before in the seven years that it has been a masque. One neighbor says she didn't even know that it actually was actually a mosque.
We'll turn now to a story out of out of Tennessee, here. Sunday, of course, a day of rest for so many folks, but no rest for the weary, really. Survivors of the deadly Southern tornadoes, another day of picking up the pieces.
HOLMES: Oh yeah, and for many it's also a day of faith. A church in Lafayette, Tennessee, just destroyed bay tornado is determined to rebuild, and CNN's Susan Roesgen joins us live with that story. It's a story of determination -- Susan.
SUSAN ROESGEN, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: You have to have determination after something like this, I think, Betty. And it seemed so strange to us yesterday to come out here and see church members burning what was left of their church and that fire is still burning out here, today. But really, there was very little left to burn. We have a picture we can show you what the Antioch Missionary Church used to look like. A church that was built in the early 1800s, a brick church, with a lot of history and of course tornado has no respect for history.
It took just seconds, Tuesday night, for a tornado to destroy this church. So yesterday church members came out here and they cleaned up, they swept up, scraped up what was left of it, and it seemed very strange for them also. The shock of this to see nothing left. A week ago Sunday was a normal day and now nothing seems the same.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDY KNIGHT, CHURCH MEMBER: I feel like you been punched real hard or hit with a baseball bat, you know, just an eye-opening experience that my kids will always remember. I remember the first tornado I ever went to, it tore down a church, local church and you know, I still remember it today just like it happened yesterday, and this here brought back memories.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROESGEN: This church has more than 300 members, many of the, perhaps most of them lost property here, and at least one church member was killed not far from this area. So today's service at a local junior high school is sure to be filled with prayers and tears -- Betty.
NGUYEN: Definitely a day of faith. Susan Roesgen joining us live, thank you for that, Susan.
HOLMES: And our Reynolds Wolf keeping an eye on weather happening across the country, a lot of people getting socked with some pretty cold weather.
Good morning to you, sir.
REYNOLDS WOLF, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yeah, you know, it's something that if you stepped outside, you're certainly going to feel it. If you are in Chicago or someplace in the Midwest, you happen to look out the window, it's going to look fantastic, but it's when you go out there, you're going to feel that rush of cold air, that cold air that's been originating up near the, of course the North Pole sweeping in through Canada and of course now into the Midwest.
(WEATHER REPORT)
NGUYEN: And a lot of people going through those different airports there, so really tie things up.
WOLF: Oh yeah.
NGUYEN: Thank you, Reynolds. We do appreciate that update.
WOLF: You bet.
HOLMES: Well, an update here about a famous London market going up in smoke.
NGUYEN: Yeah, merchandise, shops, and pubs all affected by the flames.
HOLMES: Also, when will U.S. troops leave Iraq? Our Jamie McIntyre asks Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Hear his answer.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: Well, about 15 minutes past the hour now on this Sunday morning. Here are some of our other top stories. A candle light vigil last night in Port Wentworth, Georgia for the victims of the explosion and fire at the sugar refinery, there. Recovery crews pulled another body from the wreckage of Imperial Sugar Refinery on yesterday. That brought the number of identified victims down to five. The search resumes today for three men still missing.
NGUYEN: Taka a look at this, a huge fire destroyed shops, bars, homes and part of London's famous Camden Market, overnight. It took 100 firefighters six hours to bring that blaze under control. London police say no one hurt in the fire.
HOLMES: Some Marines getting the boot? They planned to hold urban warfare training in Toledo, Ohio. Those Marines trained in February 2006 for deployment in Iraq, but this time the mayor saying: uh-uh. He says some residents were frightened by the last training exercise.
NGUYEN: Let's talk now about troop withdrawal in Iraq. When will we see a drawdown? Defense Secretary Robert Gates is awaiting a recommendation from the top man on the ground in Iraq. Gates talked about it in an exclusive interview with CNN senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: I know you are awaiting his recommendation about further troop cuts. You said in the past you were hopeful, and you emphasized hopeful, that there could be additional troop reductions beyond July. Is that hope fading?
ROBERT GATES, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, I think I need to talk to General Petraeus, I need to see the evaluations done that are being carried out by Central Command and the joint chiefs, and then I'll make my own recommendations to president. But I -- I wouldn't -- I wouldn't say the hope is fading, but I think, as I've said all along, it will depend on conditions on the ground. MCINTYRE: Is this a case of what General Petraeus wants he'll get, or is there a possibility he'll be overruled?
GATES: Well, I think the key here is that the president is going to be the one that makes the decision and he will hear a number of voices, clearly general Petraeus' voice will weigh very heavily in his thinking, but as our experience last August and September indicated, he also listens very attentively to both Admiral Fallon and the joint chiefs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NGUYEN: Well, today in Germany, Gates put the spotlight is on NATO, saying its survival is at stake in debate over fighting extremists in Afghanistan. He called on Europe to wake up and to the threat and do more to help fight the Taliban insurgency.
HOLMES: All right, this is huge. A deal could be done today that would end the writer's strike.
NGUYEN: All right, so how soon will we see new episodes of say, what, "Grey's Anatomy," some of those other favorite television shows? That's the question
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: All right. Help may be on the way, folks, if you are just going nuts having to keep watching the re-runs of the favorite shows. Tune in to this, now. A tentative deal has been reached between striking writers and the Hollywood production studios and it could end the three-month-old walkout. And our Jim Acosta joins us now from New York with the good news.
And, Jim, what show now are you just itching to see? What show of yours is coming back, now? You've been stuck with re-runs.
JIM ACOSTA, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, I'll tell you, the writer's strike seemed like a re-run that would never end, I'll tell you that much. I'm a big "24" fan.
HOLMES: Me too. Good show.
ACOSTA: I'm excited to see that come back.
HOLMES: Good show, yes.
ACOSTA: But we'll see. You know, the big problem, T.J., though, is we don't know how soon those shows will get back on the air, depends on production schedule.
But let's set this up, Hollywood likes a happy ending and it seemed like this one would never come, but it appears the curtain is about to close on the writer's strike. The Writer's Guild of America is now backing a deal reached with the major entertainment studios, yesterday, that goes to the heart of the labor dispute, offering compensation for online use of movies and TV shows. The board for the Writer's Guild is set to meet today to decide whether to authorize a vote to lift the strike. If all goes well, the strike could be over as early as tomorrow. Filmmaker Michael Moore says it's a historic movement for the labor movement in this country.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL MOORE, FILMMAKER: A few things have already been gained, that a union in the United States of America stood up to corporate America and said we're not going to take this anymore. I wouldn't have thought it would be the writers. You don't usually, you know, I'd expect it from the steel workers or autoworkers. The fact that it was a bunch of people who got beat up in school for, you know, because they liked to sit around and write in their journals, it's kind of impressive.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ACOSTA: The writer's strike lasted three months, costing the city of Los Angeles alone an estimated $1 billion. And all the viewers want to know, as T.J. was mentioning earlier, is when their favorite TV shows will be back with new episodes. The answer is unclear. The writers do be back to work as early as Wednesday, but it could take weeks to get those shows back into production. But, movie fans can rest assured this deal should save the Oscars, which is scheduled to air, as we all know, in about two weeks -- T.J.
HOLMES: Forget the Oscars, when is jack Bauer coming back to save the world?
ACOSTA: That's right. How much writing does that require, actually, for him to just go out there and kick some tail?
HOLMES: And to kick some butt. You're absolutely right. Jim Acosta, thank you so much for the updates, this morning. We'll see you.
ACOSTA: You bet.
HOLMES: And there's a lot of testosterone around here this morning when you talk about "24."
HOLMES: It's a good show.
NGUYEN: Oh, it's a great show. I can't wait for it to come back.
In the meantime, though, it is Black History Month, but one man is focused on the future of African-Americans. Let's got to the top now, to meet the man whose middle name truly is hope.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(voice over): The violence and despair of the 1992 Los Angeles riots inspired John Hope Bryant was inspired to make a change. The former business man created Operation Hope, a nonprofit organization dedicated to eliminating poverty through financial education.
JOHN HOPE BRYANT, FOUNDER & CEO, OPERATION HOPE: We teach people checking, savings, credit, investment, the history of banking. Giving them an opportunity to take care of their family, to move them up and out of poverty by their own steam.
NGUYEN: Operation Hope has raised more than $400 million and now reaches far beyond L.A. with programs in 51 cities, including Johannesburg, South Africa. The organization has helped hundreds of thousands of kids learn banking basics and transformed many inner city renters into homeowners.
BRYANT: Not one home loan has gone bad in 15 years, it's pretty remarkable. The people needed a hand up, not just a handout. It's not about making more money, but making better decisions with the money you make.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: All right, you've been hearing it, election coverage all over the place. More people care about this year's presidential election. There are long lines at the polls, but is this really the case? We got a reality check, coming up. We been talking about a whole lot, people in the process, everybody excited, is it really the case?
NGUYEN: All right, we'll check into that. Plus, from stump speeches to online chats. FaceBook is the place for candidates to recruit young people.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: Hey there, everybody and welcome back to the CNN SUNDAY MORNING. I'm T.J. Holmes.
NGUYEN: Yes, good morning everybody, I'm Betty Nguyen. Here are some of the stories that we are following, today. Maine Democrats, they are weighing in. That's state's Democratic caucuses and you will remember that Mitt Romney won the Republican caucuses there earlier this month.
HOLMES: Maine maybe minor compared to some of the results we saw yesterday. Voters handed Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee big wins. Obama swept three states and the Virgin Islands, while Huckabee won two state contests. But, John McCain, not shut out. He won the Washington State caucuses. That very close race just being called by the state Republican Party, there. And that was just a few minutes ago.
NGUYEN: Well, T.J., young people flooded the polls in record- breaking numbers on Super Tuesday, doubling, tripling and in one case quadrupling turnout from 2000 and 2004. The social networking Web site, FaceBook, is playing a big role in motivating students to take an active role in this political process. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) STEVEN GOLDEN, PRESIDENT AMORY UNIV STUDENTS FOR BARACK OBAMA: Invite everybody to that event, and with the click of a mouse.
NGUYEN (voice over): At Atlanta's Emory University, sophomore, Steve Golden organized a group of students for Barack Obama, last April. It started with seven members, but has now grown to more than 200 Obama supporters. Golden says FaceBook was an essential tool in getting the word out so students could get involved.
GOLDEN: FaceBook is our No. 1 friend. I can't stress enough how much FaceBook has helped politics. There's a high school FaceBook group and they also see how, you know, One Million Strong for Barack," which is, I think the biggest Barack Obama group on FaceBook, how that's created so much publicity and how it's created so much buzz.
GOLDEN: So, I really do think that all these students are really tieing in through FaceBook to become more active in the campaign...
NGUYEN: With more than 65 billion hits a month and millions of members visiting the site each day, FaceBook has become the Internet's second largest social networking site after MySpace. It has energized and organized politically active students across the country.
BENJAMIN VAN DER HORST, FOUNDER, COLLEGE SOCIETY OF AMERICA: FaceBook is almost replacing e-mail for a lot of college students. We use the internal FaceBook messaging system rather than e-mail to talk to people and it's one thing we use to communicate with people all across the country.
NGUYEN: Technology, the candidates are using to their advantage. All have their own FaceBook pages where they stump for young voters, mobilize volunteers and raise funds.
LAUREN SALZ, COLUMBIA UNIV YOUNG REPUBLICANS: The candidates campaign what they call FaceBook notes. Kind of updates what the campaign is doing, what the important is issue of the day is. They also post events. It's a much faster, more organized way of communicating.
EVERETT MATTOX, UGA YOUNG REPUBLICANS: You heard the different arguments.
NGUYEN: But, not all students are as quick to post their own political views. Some worry it could pose future problems.
MATTOX: A lot of times maybe you don't want to be as Googleable (ph), you know, you don't want someone to be able to type your name in and find out everything about you. There are certain areas of privacy that I personally want to try to respect about myself, try to contain about myself...
NGUYEN: And some student activists just are not ready to buy into the FaceBook hype.
CHRIS KUWALIK, PRES COLUMBIA UNIV COLLEGE REPUBLICANS: It definitely has a big importance in the new dynamic of the campaign. But is it going to revolutionize things? I don't think so, at least not yet.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
NGUYEN: And he does have a good point. I mean, you can't contribute, you know, the young people going to the polls only because of things like FaceBook and MySpace and the Internet, but at the same time, they are heading to the polls in record numbers.
As we said, I mean, Tennessee alone, they quadrupled their turnout when it came to young people on Super Tuesday and Georgia tripled the number of young people who turned out this time around as opposed to the last few elections.
HOLMES: It makes it easier and that's how young people are connecting, that's how they communicate.
NGUYEN: That is the wave of the future and we need to get on that.
HOLMES: We get on a FaceBook page.
NGUYEN: I don't have FaceBook, I don't have a MySpace. I've -- honestly, I'm a little afraid of it. I don't know how to work it.
HOLMES: We should make that our assignment. By next weekend, we should get MySpace and FaceBook pages.
NGUYEN: All right, you go first.
HOLMES: All right, I'll go first. All right, well of course, we'll be talking about this throughout the primary election season, all these reports of higher voter turnout.
NGUYEN: This is true, but what exactly does that mean? I mean, are the numbers really huge or just higher than normal. That's a good point. CNN's Josh Levs is keeping them honest.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOSH LEVS, CNN.COM DESK (voice over): You hear about it everyday.
OBAMA: For all the turnout and excitement that we've been seeing...
LEVS: Even if Florida where Democrats didn't campaign.
SEN HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This has been a record turnout...
LEVS: Senator John McCain has praised turnout, too. And those who track the numbers describe it like this:
CURTIS GANS, DIR CTR FOR STUDY OF AMER ELECTORATE: This is, as far as primary turnout, a miraculous turnout. LEVS: How much of the electorate is actually involved in this miracle? A not so whopping 27 percent of voters have taken part in state primaries, according to the Center for Study of American Electorate. If that holds up it will be a record.
(on camera): And Curtis, are you surprised that it wasn't even higher? I mean, given that this a historical election with open season, as you were saying, on both sides, there could be reason to expect really big numbers, plus the attention to all of these candidates. Were you surprised overall the number so far is not higher?
GANS: No, I'm not surprised by that. I mean, we have been dampening down the impulse to vote for a long time.
LEVS (voice over): Though all the numbers are preliminary, Gans says the turnout is real, including the increase in young voters.
GANS: College resident and college-educated youth, we're not talking about people below that level.
LEVS: That's largely for Obama, though CNN exit polls in California showed Clinton edged him out among voters aged 18 to 24. Gans also says overall, Democratic primaries have drawn more people than Republican ones.
GANS: I think the Independents are more interested in the Democratic primary than they are in the Republican primary.
LEVS: But Gans says the turnout this November may actually be actually lower than the 2004 general election, which was the highest in nearly 40 years.
GANS: And that was driven by the polarization created by Iraq and the Bush administration on both sides.
LEVS: In that election, about 60 percent of eligible voters took part.
Josh Levs, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: And the voters certainly turned out for Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, last night, handing them impressive wins. Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider joining us from new York to help us make sense of it all.
And tell us first, on the Huckabee side, did he surprise people by picking up a couple of wins last night?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR POLITICAL ANALYST: He certainly did. I mean, everyone though, was talking about the John McCain coronation as a done deal. After Mitt Romney pulled out of the race last week, the assumption was that the party would immediate close ranks around John McCain and look what happened. His one most serious remaining opponent, Mike Huckabee, beat him in Louisiana and in Kansas. McCain seems to have won a narrow victory in Washington. That doesn't look like closing ranks to me. It looks like there is still a lot of disaffection with the idea of McCain nomination in the Republican Party, particularly among conservatives...
HOLMES: So, are they just sending a point, though, Bill? Because, mathematically speaking, it's almost impossible for Huckabee to win this thing, so what message is that sending him? Is that kind of embarrassing to John McCain to be the presumptive nominee and still be getting your butt kicked in a couple of states by this other guy?
SCHNEIDER: Yeah, it is. And that's the message that they're sending, that they are not satisfied with him. Look, he only got 36 percent of conservative voters in Louisiana, that's the Republican Party base. If he can't rally conservatives, 36 percent is kind of sad for someone who claims to be the presumptive nominee of the party. The born again Evangelicals, he only got a third of the vote, that means he's to do some work to repair his relationship with the base of the Republican Party to rally them to support him.
HOLMES: And is there a danger here for Mike Huckabee to upset some folks who are hope, at least, on the Republican side that they could use this time to coalesce round one candidate and get all their ducks in a row to attack the Democrats, while they're still fighting at it? So, is there a backlash against Mike Huckabee?
SCHNEIDER: He is irritating the Republican establishment, and my guess is, he doesn't care. He's an antiestablishment candidate. He doesn't worry what a bunch of political insiders in Washington are saying, tut-tut, he's keeping us from rallying; he may be spoiling our chances. You know, he doesn't care. He says competion is good for the party. And when asked whether the numbers indicate he had a chance to win, he said, "I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles." He's a Baptist preacher.
HOLMES: He is a Baptist preacher, and it would take a miracle, possibly, on this one.
We will go to the other side where there is some serious competition going on. Can Hillary Clinton hold on, if you will? We got, of course, Barack Obama swept last night. We got a few more contests coming up, the Potomac primaries, where Obama expected to do well, really throughout the month of February. Can she hold on? Is she putting all of her eggs into the Texas and into the Ohio and the Pennsylvania basket coming up in March? Can she hold on that long?
SCHNEIDER: Well, that's exactly what she's doing. She's saying wait until the big states vote. That's not until March 4. We got three weeks in which she may not win anything. The danger for her is she will be seen as losing momentum and that could hurt her in the big states. If she does win them, look, she's won New Jersey, New York, California, those are serious states and candidates who win those states usually get the nomination.
Meanwhile, he's been picking up the sort of leftover states in Idaho and Louisiana and Kansas or Nebraska, states that are not big kingmaker states, but he's really piling up delegates. So, if it looks like she's just losing everything, then the momentum will go against her and that could be a serious danger in states she has to win. She has to win Texas and Ohio on March 4.
HOLMES: And the way it's looking now, if he keeps it up, I know it's hard for you to predict here, but we could seriously get to the convention and nobody has enough delegates. What kind of mess, chaos -- has that happened before? Or when was the last time it happened? I'm maybe putting you on the spot with some history, here, but explain to people what that means.
SCHNEIDER: Well, that means that the fight will go to the convention floor. You know, that's what conventions are supposed to be about. They're supposed to actually make decisions and they used to, for years and decades for most of the history of the country. The last time we really had a brokered convention was 1952 for the Democrats. That's a long time ago, that's over 50 years ago. You don't do it anymore because the record shows that when you have a convention that's fighting, that's divided, usually the party loses, like the Democrats in 1968 in Chicago or over McGovern in 1972, or Kennedy versus Carter in 1980.
Every time you had a clash like that on the convention floor, the voters didn't like it. And what they particularly didn't like was the idea of party insiders, political officeholders making backroom deals and contradicting the vote of the people. They don't like that at all. But, that's what happens when you have at the Democratic Party 800 super delegates who will then decide who the nominee is. And the reason they can do that is, the primary voters can't make up their minds. They're not lining up behind either Clinton or Obama.
HOLMES: So, the super delegates may make up their minds for them, possibly. We're not there yet, but it's a possibility and I don't know what I was thinking saying I was going to put you on the spot with your history. You've always got your history ready to go.
All right, Bill Schneider, always good to see you. We appreciate you, this morning.
SCHNEIDER: Sure. OK.
HOLMES: And our BALLOT BOWL, back this weekend. Your chance to hear those candidates unfiltered in their own words. It kicks off this afternoon at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
NGUYEN: And the votes have been counted, so now we're just waiting to see who gets the awards.
Amy Winehouse, so, will she perform? But, will she get a Grammy or two in the process?
HOLMES: That song, it's so appropriate now, though. Rehab.
NGUYEN: After she's been to rehab.
HOLMES: After she's been to rehab, poor girl. It's a good song, though. Plus folks, we got some, we wanted to stick with this? I'm OK with that. Some pictures you got to see, as well and there's a chance you'll see more of these pictures like this in the days to come. We will explain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: All right, time to take a look at some other stories making news at this hour. In central Ecuador, residents are keeping a close watch on this. This is an erupting volcano, there. That volcano has dumped more than an inch of ash on nearby villages and just the last few days. And it's also forced the evacuation of 3,000 people. The eruption is causing major crop damage is an important farming area.
HOLMES: And a security alert this morning on a British oil rig in the North Sea. Military helicopters and the bomb squad have been sent to a rig about 175 miles off the coast of Scotland, the east coast of Scotland. The helicopters are evacuating more than 500 workers.
We got a talented, but troubled singer, but making a much anticipated appearance and performance, part of the buzz surrounding the Grammys.
NGUYEN: Yeah, she's supposed to be live, but there is a problem, what was it, a Visa?
HOLMES: The Visa, they said they weren't going to issue her one to come to the U.S. and then they decided to, but then she decided not to come, anyway, so.
NGUYEN: We're talking about Amy Winehouse.
Of course we are.
And you know the saga continues with here. Here's another question, though, for you. Not only will Amy Winehouse sing live, will Kanye West win? Entertainment correspondent Brooke Anderson has a preview of tonight's ceremony.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROOKE ANDERSON, CNN ENTERTAINMENT CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Troubled British soul singer, Amy Winehouse heads into the 50th annual Grammy Awards with six nominations for her breakthrough album, "Back to Black." Because her application for a Visa to enter United States was initially denied, then granted at the last minute, Winehouse won't be able to attend the show, but she is determined to participate.
The 24-year-old chanteuse who sits on "Rehab" is nominated for Record of the Year and Song of the Year, will perform live via satellite from a London studio. Winehouse, who has been rehab herself for two weeks left Friday and said, "I'd like to thank everyone for their support over the last couple of weeks. I'm really sorry I can't be there, but I appreciate that I'm given a second chance via satellite." GEOFF BOUCHER, LOS ANGELES TIMES: There's a team of people on both coasts, both sides of the Atlantic, working now to make sure that Amy is in Grammy shape. Obviously, she's a woman in distress right now, and I think that everyone agrees that this was an amazing album...
ANDERSON: Winehouse's stiffest competition for Album of the Year comes from Kanye West and his CD, "Graduation". The hip-hop superstar has been nominated in the top category twice before and he's gone home empty handed.
BOUCHER: Some people feel he didn't get the Grammys he's deserved in the past, people like Kanye.
ANDERSON: West leads the pack with eight nominations. And if he goes to the podium it could be a tear-jerker, especially in light of his mother's untimely death in November.
BOUCHER: I think people do vote for the acceptance speech they want to hear, and they like emotion, we like genuine emotion and people, especially people that we sing along to.
ANDERSON: Look for unique pairings, such as the Foo Fighters rocking out with an orchestra, Beyonce in a duet with Tina Turner, also Aretha Franklin, the queen of soul, and maybe even the king of pop.
BOUCHER: It's the 25th anniversary of "Thriller," this is the 50th anniversary of the Grammys. From what I hear on both sides, Michael wasn't going to show up unless he was given an award.
ANDERSON: Stranger things have happened. Remember Soy Bomb dancing behind Bob Dylan at the 40th annual Grammys?
Brooke Anderson, CNN, Hollywood.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
NGUYEN: What is that?
HOLMES: What is that?
NGUYEN: I mean, is that -- I don't know, some kind of personal...
HOLMES: That's how he gets down, maybe. That's how he jams.
NGUYEN: A message of some sort?
All right, Valentine's Day. We'll move on. It's Thursday.
HOLMES: Is it?
NGUYEN: I hope you know it's Thursday. And sure, it's easy to be romantic just for one night, but the bigger challenge is making it last. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Honestly, it's -- you know, marriage is a challenge, you know, it's a marathon. And I have grown ways that I never thought I would have.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: Did he say a marathon?
NGUYEN: And he said he's grown in ways he never thought would have.
HOLMES: But, comparing it to a marathon. A marathon is kind of painful, ain't it? It's a long race.
NGUYEN: I was going to say, after time with marriage, you do you grow in ways, around the waistline, as you know.
HOLMES: Oh my goodness. All right, we're going to talk about this couple. We'll be positive, we'll get ourselves together.
NGUYEN: We weren't talking about them specifically, though.
HOLMES: Yes, but we'll talk about how that couple keeps going strong after 25 years of marriage. A Valentine's Day message to everybody.
NGUYEN: Yeah, hats off to them.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
NGUYEN: Oh goodness. So folks, are thinking about tying the knot this valentine's Day -- T. J.
HOLMES: I'm good.
NGUYEN: Are you?
HOLMES: Yes, Oprah is taken.
NGUYEN: You better stop. Or maybe you've been married for years.
HOLMES: Well, the good news here is experts say marriages are beginning last longer, the divorce rate on the decline, so how to you make it last? Our Tony Harris has one couple's story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mazel tov.
TONY HARRIS, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT (voice over): To love and cherish from this day forward until death do you part. You've got to admit, that is a high standard to meet. For most couples, the road to marital bliss gets bumpy along the way. GARY MOSS, MARRIED 25 YEARS: Honestly, it's -- you know, marriage is a challenge, you know, it's a marathon. And I have grown ways that I never thought I would have. Never even realized I needed to grow.
HARRIS: June and Gary Moss have been married 25 years. Gary is a filmmaker, June, an I.T. manager.
JUNE MOSS, MARRIED 25 YEARS: ...he was so cute.
(LAUGHTER)
G MOSS: She's lying. It works out perfectly.
HARRIS: This was a second marriage for both. When they met, they were nursing old wounds from their previous marriages.
J MOSS: We almost took turns saying don't get serious about me, I'm not the marrying type.
HARRIS: But after two years of dating, they decided to tie the knot. A year later, they had a baby girl named Tyler. Gary and June are the classic yin and yang.
G MOSS: Quiet satisfaction. I think is really important. Well, for me it is.
J MOSS: Talking.
G MOSS: We're different. Introvert, extrovert.
J MOSS: I thought you were the...
G MOSS: Yeah, right.
J MOSS: YEah.
G MOSS: Intuitive, you know, concrete.
HARRIS: But they say those differences were exactly what they needed to become better people.
J MOSS: Yeah.
G MOSS: You know, for a long time, I thought the way I viewed the world was the right way to view the world. I didn't say to anyone, but I thought that. And when you live with someone and find they're competent and they're intelligent and they are very, very different than you, it -- it's -- it's a light bulb moment, and you say, gosh, you know, there are other ways to understand the world and otherwise interact with the world.
And I don't even want to go into it anymore that I don't have a network of people that I can relate to.
J MOSS: Gary is a very bright person, has always been an intellectual person and challenges me to keep up. And it's difficult to keep up, but I love the challenge and I love succeeding. You know, we bought this house and renovated it and Gary taught me to roof, you know, gave me a book and said go roof, you know, and expected that I would do that and I was determined that if he thought I could do that, I -- one time.
(LAUGHTER)
I would do it.
HARRIS: Marriage experts say marriage is more about personal happiness than ever before, that's because there are fewer religious and economic pressures for people to tie the knot, today.
STEPHANIE COONTZ, MARRIAGE HISTORIAN: So, it's really only in the last 30 years that men and women have been totally free to choose a mate on their own without the pressure of in-laws and society and on the basis of love and mutual attraction. And that's why marriage requires more negotiation and deeper friendship than ever has before.
HARRIS: The Moss's say their deeper friendship and trust opened up a whole new world of possibilities for them.
J MOSS: My limitations went from being this smaller box of possibilities to just now, I don't even know what the limitations are in terms of being happy. I can't even imagine that we would get to touch all of the corners of our lives that we want to touch.
G MOSS: We just have a great time. A lot of times we just, you know, we have running jokes of 25 years duration.
HARRIS: Tony Harris, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HOLMES: He made her go roofing.
NGUYEN: Maybe that's a key to it.
HOLMES: The key?
NGUYEN: Folk at home...
HOLMES: Put you all to work. That's the key. No, I'm kidding.
NGUYEN: Put you all? Meaning women in general?
HOLMES: His wife, well, he gave her a roofing book.
NGUYEN: Well, they were bounding.
HOLMES: Over roofing, who knew?
A CNN "In the Name of Love," that's tonight. You'll get tips from the experts on how to make your marriage last, get advice on dating after 40, and head to class with the famous pickup artist. We saw this guy a little earlier, a man who teaches single men how to attract women. All that, tonight at 7:00 Eastern with Tony Harris.
NGUYEN: So, if I get a roofing book from you or Tony Harris, hey, then you know it's true love.
HOLMES: Who knew that was a Valentine's Day gift.
NGUYEN: Exactly.
Well, a Minnesota couple gives new meaning to the words "heart- to-heart." First, she had open heart surgery.
HOLMES: My goodness.
NGUYEN: Yes, and the next day he did. Then Larry and Ruth Styrbicki were given side-by-side hospital rooms to recuperate. They've been married 46 years and they say they're almost never apart. But now with their two broken hearts mended, they are looking forward to more years together.
HOLMES: I bet he never gave her a book on roofing.
NGUYEN: I bet he didn't.
HOLMES: Well, now time to check in with Howard Kurtz in Washington to see what's ahead on CNN's RELIABLE SOURCES.
Howard, good morning to you, sir.
HOWARD KURTZ, RELIABLE SOURCES: You guys are having fun, this morning.
Coming up, after Barack Obama's victory in three more states yesterday, are journalists now giving him the edge in the Democratic race? And why are they pushing the idea of Obama and Hillary on the same ticket? The press casts Mitt Romney as a phony as he bows out of the race. How did it get so personal? Mike Huckabee keeps winning even though we keep writing him off? And is John McCain's victory a defeat for conservative radio talkers.
Plus, the Britney industry, her team demands money for a "Rolling Stone" interview. Haven't we all had enough? That and more ahead on RELIABLE SOURCES.
HOLMES: Boy, you keep it interesting, Howard, and we appreciate it. We'll see you at the top of the hour.
NGUYEN: Coming up, loved ones lost in war, but their canine companions are coming home.
HOLMES: Yeah, families dealing with terrible loss get some help from four-legged friends.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I mean, seeing him is incredible. I can't even describe it to you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NGUYEN: Two pooches who roamed the streets of Baghdad, well now they have new home right here in the U.S.
HOLMES: Yes, "Momma" and "Boris" are the names. They were picked up in cared for by Army Sergeant Peter Neesley, but he died suddenly in his sleep in December. It took a while, but his family has finally managed to bring the dogs to Michigan.
NGUYEN: Yeah, they say "Momma" and "Boris" helped Neesley keep it together in Baghdad. And they hope the pups do the same for them. What a story.
HOLMES: A happy ending, there.
Well, some called it Super Tuesday, for others it was Super-Duper Tuesday. But how did the media handle this so-called national primary? Our Howard Kurtz, his is the critic and he is next on RELIABLE SOURCES.
Plus, in a rare interview, former secretary of state, Colin Powell, joins Wolf Blitzer to talk about the presidential race and who he might support, that discussion, 11:00 Eastern on LATE EDITION. But first, a check of this morning's new developments.
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