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CNN Sunday Morning
Health Reform Showdown; Watching the Rising Water; Iraqi P.M. Wants Election Recount
Aired March 21, 2010 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)
CROWD: Kill the bill! Kill the bill! Kill the bill! Kill the bill!
REP. JOHN BOEHNER (R-OH), MINORITY LEADER: We've made clear that it's time to scrap this bill. And they are going to continue to ram, ram, ram this bill through the Congress.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Just as co-pays for one month is $350.
REP. ERIC CANTOR (R-VA), MINORITY WHIP: Where people vote on this bill will have a huge factor. It will have a huge impact on whether they are here next year or not.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Don't do it for me. Don't do it for the Democratic Party. Do it for the American people.
(END VIDEO CLIPS)
(MUSIC)
T.J. HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: We are coming to you live from the CNN Center in Atlanta. But that place right there is where the action is happening today, where, in fact, history could happen today. They could pass landmark health care reform legislation. but they still have to count the votes. The work is not done yet.
But welcome to the CNN SUNDAY MORNING for this March 21st. We have seen the debate. We have seen the protest. We have seen the rallies -- and, in fact, we have sweat and tears. It all comes full circle today.
Hello to you all. I'm T.J. Holmes.
ABBIE BOUDREAU, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Abbie Boudreau.
We are now hours away from the House convening to vote on the president's health care bill.
HOLMES: The future now of health care in this country is going to be decided in really just a matter of hours. Right now, though, Democrats are still doing some head-counting. They do not have a lot on the votes they need to pass the president's health care reform. The "no" votes are what we are counting here. This is what we're keeping a close eye on. This is what we are keeping up with.
We're told that now 33 House Democrats are planning to vote against the measure. If that number climbs to 38 -- so that's just five more -- that means the bill will not pass.
The bill -- let's show you the bill. Right next to our Brianna Keilar right now who is at the Capitol and not carrying it around today. It got a little heavy yesterday. That's a big, but this is a big deal and this could happen soon.
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It could happen soon. And actually, here's what the day ahead looks like. And I want to show you exactly what the House is going to be voting on.
Now, the House comes into session at 1:00 p.m. this afternoon. Between now and then, it is all about arm-twisting and wrangling those last-minute votes for House Democratic leaders. But at 1:00, we're going to see -- I really just want to go through the highlights because there's kind of a lot of procedural stuff, T.J.
But you're going to see a vote on what's called the rule. This lays out the parameters of the debate. And all of the votes are going to take place today.
And what you're going to see later in the day, you will see a vote on this, which is the Senate health care reform bill. This and then next, roughly speaking, you're going to be seeing a vote on this. This is called the reconciliation bill. This is a bill of changes that House Democrats have made to this bill right here.
So, when does this all wrap up? Well, you know, the best guess that we can tell you is sometime when you are probably eating dinner, if you're here on the east coast. We're thinking maybe 6:30, maybe 7:00. But we're looking at the evening.
What I've learned, T.J., from covering these things is they frequently slip farther into the evening. But we'll certainly be keeping an eye on it. And this is the whole day that we're going to be covering.
HOLMES: Yes. And also, we have a plan of how we think this is going to go. But we thought we knew how things were going to go yesterday before Democrats through a monkey wrench in the whole thing and saying they were dropping the "deem and pass." So, possibly, what else could Republicans -- do they have some more tricks up their sleeve possibly today to try to slow things down a bit or stop this bill once again?
KEILAR: You have to expect that they do. I mean, this has been the tactic. It's really the tactic of the minority party at any point in time, because they don't have the votes necessarily to affect this. And so, they are going to pull out everything that they have in their tool shed. They could do -- there is a certain vote that they can offer and it's -- we don't necessarily know it's going to be sort of an alternative that they could offer at the last minute. Sometimes they do this to make Democrats take a tough vote. We don't know what that's going to be.
And another thing I want to point out, T.J., that I should have pointed out before -- they're voting on the Senate bill first now and then on the changes bill. This is also a change from yesterday, from last night because we thought they were going to vote on the changes and then the Senate bill to give some members some political cover, but obviously, that's not going to happen.
HOLMES: Yes. That was -- that had a lot of people scratching their heads. And we had people asking about it to us this morning. Wait a minute. You vote on the changes and then you vote on the bill? Can you really do that?
All right. I'm sure, Brianna, when we talk to you next, something else will have changed. So, we look forward to talking to you again. Thanks so much.
BOUDREAU: The president has a lot riding on this vote. He postponed his trip to Indonesia so he could be in Washington to make a final push for his top domestic initiative.
White House correspondent, Dan Lothian, joins us live.
Dan -- so, the president wanted to make sure that he was in Washington when this vote goes down.
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right. You know, right now, the president, had he kept to his schedule, he would have been overseas. And instead, he decided to say behind because this is -- such as you pointed out -- such a critical vote and the president wanted to be here to make sure that he could push health care reform across the finish line.
I just heard from a White House aide who told me that the president will continue to be working the phones behind the scenes, trying to reach out to those House Democrats who are still on the fence. And that's what we've seen from the president over the last few days. I mean, I guess we've seen our own version of March Madness as they are in the fourth quarter of this major health care game, if you will, and trying to make sure that those Democrats, who can really help them win this, vote "yes."
And so, the president we saw yesterday going up to Capitol Hill, making it clear to those House Democrats exactly what's at stake.
BOUDREAU: All right. And, Dan, I am just curious, I mean, do we --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We are bound to let whatever light we have shine. We have been debating health care for decades. It has now been debated for a year.
It is in your hands. It is time to pass health care reform for America and I am confident that you are going to do it tomorrow. Thank you very much, House of Representatives. Let's get this done!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LOTHIAN: And, of course, Democrats have been very confident that they do have the votes to get this passed. But, of course, we'll have to wait and see if, in fact, that's the case. And, clearly, the White House is a bit concerned because we saw last night reaching out to former President Bill Clinton, to help -- to make phone calls to those -- again, those House Democrats who are still undecided or undeclared.
So, that big push, reaching out to a former president, who, by the way, stumbled on health care -- in fact, failed on health care reform when he tried back in the '90s. And so, he does remain a popular figure. So, they are hoping that perhaps he can do a little arm-twisting and some convincing, Abbie.
BOUDREAU: All right, Dan. Busy day ahead for you, I'm sure. Thank you so much.
LOTHIAN: That's right.
HOLMES: And, of course, that busy day starts. Well, it has pretty much started. It hasn't stopped all weekend.
But at 1:00, the House is convening. You can follow the health care vote all day long right here, CNN special live coverage. This is your place to find out about this historic day on Capitol Hill. Don't go anywhere. We'll have it covered for you.
BOUDREAU: Right.
It's the moment people in parts of the Midwest have been waiting for and fearing.
HOLMES: Yes, the Red River set to crest today. But at what level?
Our Reynolds Wolf is there.
Hello to you again, Reynolds.
REYNOLDS WOLF, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Hey, guys, my guess, it's still be around 37 feet is where it should probably top off later on today. You know, one of the things that they help to use to restrict the flow of that river, of course, here in Fargo, these sandbags you see back here. There are just some of the million sandbags that they actually started putting together back on March 1st to help stem the heavy flow of the river. And, of course, you see them winding around these houses.
All right, folks. Coming up in just a little bit, we're going to bring you the very latest from Fargo, North Dakota, and the latest on the flood. That's coming up right here on CNN SUNDAY.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: Well, the Red River -- the swollen Red River -- expected to crest right about now. We're going to go to Fargo, North Dakota. Our Reynolds Wolf is keeping an eye on those levels.
Reynolds, we're not talking about record levels at least this year. But still, we're talking about levels that are getting pretty high and pretty close to that record.
WOLF: Yes, I mean, it's beyond major flood stage. I mean, remember, T.J., major flood stage in this river is going to be right around 17 feet or so. We are going to exceed that level by nearly 20 feet. I mean, it's hard to believe. But sure enough, that's where we're headed.
Again, as you mentioned, cresting as we speak. Hey, folks, across America, you want to see the Red River? Take a look at this, right over here. This over the top of this little berm, you can see.
We are not standing on any of the, again, restricted berms. But this one is covered with grass. And right there, you see the tree line. Well, all I can tell you, about a week or so ago, that was free of water. Now, of course, it's almost all the way to the very top.
Now, that is what you see across much of the landscape here in the Upper Midwest. And if you're wondering if it's been affecting any of the homes, I would say yes in a very big way.
Let's take a walk down here. We're going to walk right down the sidewalk here. And the sidewalk comes to an abrupt end. And at the end of the sidewalk, of course, you can see again just a little bit of the dykes that were made, one of the dams, and then beyond that, you see one house that's been surrounded by (AUDIO BREAK) and another one. We spoke with the homeowner there the other day.
And again, they started making these sandbags back on March 1st. Over 1 million here in the Fargo area. Even more over in Moorhead, Minnesota, across the river. And it's all to stem the tide -- rather the flow of this big river that just moves again, about 550 miles northward, empties up in Lake Winnipeg.
Now, that is a good new that there has not been again any major home damage. There have been no lives lost with this flood, which is the great news. They have been very prepared for this.
But still, what a frustrating thing it must be for them. Two years in a row, two major floods, and it was all due, of course, to the heavy snow fall that fell back during, of course, in the wintertime and then it began to melt and all flows in this, and it's just a giant flood plain. The water really can't escape, but it just kind of fans out, so to speak, and that's why we see the widespread flooding.
Something else we've been seeing, a lot of these floodwaters, again, and a lot of the sandbags. You see, a couple of the sandbags right here.
One bit of interesting news -- is that the city of Fargo is going to start dismantling some of these -- some of the leftovers, because they are pretty confident they are doing a great job here in terms of holding back the flood. They did a great job with filling these sandbags and then what they're going to do is start to cleanup. I mean, you got a lot of paillasse, you got a lot of bags over the place. That in itself is going to be a pretty big job.
The flooding, again, the water is expected to drop over the next couple of days and then the cleanup is going to begin and they'll be plenty of that. And I'll tell you, a lot of relief for a lot of people. They're definitely prepared for this flood.
Let's send it back to you in the studio, T.J.
HOLMES: Always prepared. And we are hoping everything holds. We do appreciate you, Reynolds. We'll talk to you again soon, buddy.
BOUDREAU: But there's still indecision --
HOLMES: Oh, yes.
BOUDREAU: -- some indecision in Washington. So, how holding out has turned some members of Congress into the most powerful players in Washington.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC)
BOUDREAU: There's a shot of the U.S. Capitol where it is bound to be a very, very busy day there. Those final hours before today's big vote. CNN is tallying up the numbers. Will the legislation pass?
HOLMES: And our Josh Levs is here to show us some of these holdouts. Yes, on this day, there are still some undeclareds and maybe even some undecideds in there. But Josh is showing us where some of them are standing (ph).
Good morning to you, Josh.
JOSH LEVS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning to you guys. We've had a team really following them. And you're right, there's a bunch of undeclared. And within them, there are also those who truly are undecideds, that haven't really made up their minds yet.
Let's go straight here as I'm going to show you the numbers. I want everyone to understand why we're breaking it down the way we are.
This is what we have right now. We are looking at the total number of Democratic "no" votes. And here's why -- CNN has been doing a really close look at where all these legislators, all these lawmakers stand for days and days and days. We found was that the number of "yes" votes leading up to this vote keeps changing and it has been hard to get a firm hold on. What has stayed relatively the same has been the number of Democratic "no" votes. It's been basically steady.
So, take a look here. The total number of Democratic "no" votes needed to kill the bill, 38. And at this point, they now have 33 of those votes. So, you're looking at a handful, you're looking five votes that could potentially swing this either way.
So, what I'm going to do now is show you a few of the undeclared. And among them, you will see who might be undecided.
Let's start with this Representative John Spratt from South Carolina. He is one of the undeclared and he's one of the people that we've been taking a look at. And what we last know about him is that he didn't know yet. He was waiting to see some of the final language in that bill.
Keep in mind, this legislation is massive. It's got thousands of pages in it. And there are many lawmakers who say they need to take a close look at the language before making their decision.
Let's go to Representative John Tanner here from Tennessee. He is also one of these undeclareds, a lot of people keeping an eye on. He is -- the most important thing to him, cost control. And he really wanted to see the report from the Congressional Budget Office.
And as we all saw, that just came out at the end of the week and it has some numbers in it about how much this would ultimately cost, what it'd be paid for. He wanted to see that. He wanted to study it a little bit.
Let's look at two more here. Representative Earl Pomeroy is next. He's one of the ones we've been keeping an eye on. And Earl Pomeroy has been one of the truly undecided an we are not sure where he's going to be today. We are keeping an eye on him throughout the day and all these other lawmakers as well, also if there could be changes.
Now, I will show you a fourth one here: Representative James Oberstar of Minnesota. He's been one of these interesting undeclared players as well, one of the people that both sides have been reaching out to. Last we heard, he was leaning towards likely "yes." He had some concerns about the language involving abortion. He seemed to feel that that was relatively resolved, but still has not declared his position either way.
Now, how can you find out about your lawmakers or any lawmakers, we have that for you on the Web at a webpage that we are updating constantly throughout the day. When we get new information, it's there within two minutes. It's up at CNN.com with every lawmaker, how they voted in the past in health care and how we're expecting them to vote today.
And I've linked that for you at my Facebook page, which you can see here at CNN.com -- Facebook.com/JoshLevsCNN. We're also hearing from you on the blog as well and on our Facebook and Twitter, letting us know your views on all of this.
So, I recommend you guys, keep an eye on that webpage throughout the day leading up to the big vote. We'll see what happens, guys, you know, Abbie and T.J., what will happen with our remaining handful that could ultimately swing this one way or the other.
BOUDREAU: All right. Well, that's great information. Thank you so much.
LEVS: Thanks, guys.
HOLMES: All right. We're going to be talking a lot about this historic health care showdown today. Let's give you the schedule. The House is going to convene at 1:00 Eastern Time. So, we are just five hours, a little less than five hours away.
What's going to happen? They're going to have three votes, one is going to be on the terms of the debate, just the rules of debate. Another is going to be on the compromised changes to the bill and also, the bill itself.
Now, you've heard our Brianna Keilar just tells us that they have actually flipped the order. At first, they were to vote on the changes and then the bill. A lot of people scratching their heads, how in the world can you vote changes to a bill you haven't approved. So, that order has been flipped. They're going to vote on the bill itself and then on the package of changes.
Now, it will take 216 votes to pass this measure. If the House makes any changes, though, the bill would then have to go back to the Senate for them to approve it as well.
BOUDREAU: Thousands of people are expected in the nation's capital today, demanding immigration reform. Immigration advocates are hoping Congress will take up the issue this year. An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants are living in the U.S.
HOLMES: Well, hundreds of people in Iceland have been evacuated after a volcanic eruption. Check that out. It happened about 100 miles outside of the capital. At first, scientists thought it had erupted under a glacier. But the "A.P." is reporting that's no longer the case. Scientists are monitoring this situation for more activity and possible flooding that could come out of this.
BOUDREAU: A teenager has been charged with harassment and biased intimidation for allegedly using a Wal-Mart P.A. system to tell all black people to leave the store. This happened last week at a New Jersey Wal-Mart. The 16-year-old was arrested Friday and released to his parents.
So, what's behind the call for a recount in Iraq's election?
HOLMES: Now, the race may be too close to call or is this just some more political posturing? We are going live to Baghdad with our Mohammed Jamjoom -- next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: Two weeks now after Iraqis cast their ballots in the nation's parliamentary elections. The race is still too close to call. And now, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki wants a recount.
CNN's Mohammed Jamjoom is live in Baghdad for us this morning.
Hello to you, again, Mohammed. We were -- we have been waiting. We have been waiting. We have been waiting.
Now, you tell me -- we're going to have to wait longer because we might have to do this whole thing again?
MOHAMMED JAMJOOM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, T.J.
We just found out today that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is calling on a manual recount of all the votes cast in the March 7th parliamentary election. And he's doing so in order to preserve the electoral integrity of the process here.
Now, what you've seen in the past week is, since the election, it's been a very close race, especially between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition and the coalition led by former Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. They're really been neck-in-neck, although Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is leading in seven provinces here in the country.
But you've seen is -- you know, members of these top blocs -- they've been coming out on the past week and really charging electoral fraud and vote manipulation as the margins of the votes between the different candidates has narrowed more and more. Now, also today, you have the president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, he's come out and asked for a recount.
And this is really just going to prolong the process even more. The Independent High Electoral Commission, they're checking into this. They are meeting right now. They are trying to decide how to respond to this request.
But, really, if the top political leader of Iraq is requesting a recount and he's in the lead, you can only imagine that more and more candidates, more and more parties are going to be requesting a recount. And this could very well prolong this already long process even more -- T.J.
HOLMES: You know what -- and explain the best you can, I know it's complicated, how they kind of -- how they settle how many seats and who's in power and one vote doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get one seat -- all kinds of things. So, why would it be so important that the guy that's in the lead, he still wants a recount? Kind of explain why -- what could be possibly his motive?
JAMJOOM: Well, T.J., as you've mentioned, you know, the math here for the election, you know, it's difficult at best to try to explain. It is difficult even for politicians here, some of them, to grasp. I mean, it's an allocation system you know here. And it's not just based on the popular vote.
In the past week, you've seen former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi inch ahead in the popular vote, but then al-Maliki will inch ahead. But it doesn't matter, because al-Maliki is leading in seven of the 18 provinces.
And really, you know, it's not a surprise that he would call for a recount when these margins are getting narrower and narrower. I mean, there's a lot of fear by the parties here in Iraq that we're expected to possibly have a bigger lead. And they -- and they are concerned. And because the race is as close as it is, you're going to basically be seeing more and more political blocs, politicians here asking for this recount.
And really, the key is going to be -- how does the electoral commission here, how are they going to respond to this and what's going to happen next -- T.J.
HOLMES: All right. And any idea when we might hear from them, the commission?
JAMJOOM: We know that they are meeting right now. We don't know yet what their response is going to be. A lot of the political parties here are eagerly anticipating what it will be.
HOLMES: Yes.
JAMJOOM: And even though, you know, the Independent High Electoral Commission, even if they do reject it, it doesn't mean that it's over. And there are other ways by which they could try to stop the vote counting -- T.J.
HOLMES: Oh, my goodness. Mohammed Jamjoom, you weren't kidding when you said it's difficult to even begin to explain. Thank you so much. We'll talk to you again plenty, I'm sure.
BOUDREAU: Faith is being put to the ultimate test. But can it overcome another devastating blow to the Catholic Church?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: Hello, again, everybody, and welcome back to the CNN SUNDAY MORNING. I'm T.J. Holmes.
BOUDREAU: And I'm Abbie Boudreau.
HOLMES: It's a very important Sunday morning and could be a history-making Sunday in Washington, D.C., because after months and often times heated debate, the arm-twisting, the angry accusations, it's time to vote. Lawmakers are just hours away from voting on a far-reaching $875 billion health reform package. Democratic leaders this morning are trying to line up all the "yes" votes. All the Republicans in the Democratically-controlled House plan to vote against the legislation. * (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HOLMES: And hello again, everybody. And welcome back to the CNN SUNDAY MORNING, I'm T.J. Holmes.
BOUDREAU: And I'm Abbie Boudreau.
HOLMES: Now it's a very important Sunday morning. It could be a history-making morning in Washington, D.C. because after months and oftentimes heated debate, the arm twisting, the angry accusations, it's time to vote.
Lawmakers, just hours away from voting on a far reaching $875 billion health reform package.
Democratic leaders this morning are trying to line up all the yes votes. All the Republicans in the Democratically-controlled house plan to vote against the legislation.
So where does that leave us? That means that if 38 Democrats join the Republicans in voting no, the bill goes nowhere. It's dead. With CNN's last count, 33 Democrats plan to vote no. The president spent part of his day yesterday trying to rally the troops.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have been debating health care for decades. It has now been debated for a year. It is in your hands. It is time to pass health care reform for America and I am confident that you are going to do it tomorrow. Thank you very much, House of Representatives. Let's get this done.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: All right, let's go to the Capitol Hill to our Brianna Keilar who has been keeping an eye on things this weekend. You heard the president say he is confident and let's get this done. Well, how confident is the speaker, how confident are Democrats actually that they can actually line up enough of their members to get this thing passed?
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: They say they're going to do it, T.J. The thing is, though, we don't see the number over or even to that all important 216 number yet. It's not there. They say they're going to get it.
But, in the meantime, however this vote turns out, and it's going to be close, make no mistake about that, you know it's really important to focus on what's in this bill, what's in this health care reform package because this is going to be historic and it's going to affect you.
This is the bill right here. As you can see, it's very large. We're going to boil it down for you, basically tell you just some of the key points here.
First off, this would require you to get health insurance. And then for employers who don't provide it, they would be penalized for not providing it with an exception for small businesses who really can't afford it.
Also, to cover, in part, to cover the 32 million more Americans that this package will cover, it expands the Medicaid rules to cover some of those Americans. And it says to insurance companies, you cannot deny coverage on the basis of preexisting conditions. That whole idea of the preexisting conditions as far as insurance companies go; goes out the window.
How does this pay for this plan? Because this whole plan is $940 billion over the course of 10 years, so it doesn't add to the deficit, it's paid for. It taxes those high-end Cadillac health care plans, expensive health care plans. And critics say that that will trickle down to some of those people who have -- have those high-end plans. It also increases the Medicare payroll tax.
If you make more than $250,000 as an individual, you make more than $250,000 as a couple, you'll be seeing an increase in your taxes to help pay for this package -- T.J.
HOLMES: And of course, Brianna, you've covered it; you've seen it more so than anybody probably. Some of the back and forth and the nastiness within the halls of Congress, that's coming from the legislators themselves. But other people, some of the protesters, things got a little ugly.
So, how are Republicans reacting to some of that negative reactions to some who want no as well?
KEILAR: Yes, there was a big protest around the Capitol yesterday. It was quite a sight as a whole, the TEA Party protesters who are against this health care reform package who say that it amounts to a government takeover of health care. And there were some very ugly moments. We know that there were a couple of black members of Congress who were called the "n" word, one of whom was spat on by a protester.
Then you also had Barney Frank, who's openly gay from Massachusetts. And he was called a derogatory term, he was called a "faggot" by one protester. So what we have was Democrats saying, this is not ok. We are condemning this.
But there were actually some Republican lawmakers who are at this protest, T.J. and I haven't gotten anything on the record from a Republican member of Congress.
But I did talk to a senior or an aide to a senior House Republican who said, "Keep in mind, the vast majority of these protesters were polite and dignified. Obviously, we do not condone this type of behavior." And they also pointed out that when you look at protests that are for liberal causes, there are also just those few people who take it over the line. And they say that this was similar to this.
But what you have, T.J. is, this is difficult for Republicans. Because they've been trying to harness the energy of these TEA Party protesters and then something like this goes down. And I saw the protests yesterday. There were really only it seemed like a couple problem areas. But something like this goes down looks bad and Republicans find themselves in a really difficult spot because of it.
HOLMES: And you hate to see that kind of ugliness. It's been heated but some people of course, just unfortunately take it too far.
Brianna Keilar, we appreciate you. We will be talking to you plenty throughout our coverage today. Thanks so much.
BOUDREAU: All right, so there's basically three directions the House can go. And you're about to hear from lawmakers in every category. There is the yes's, the no's, the undeclared or undecided. The undeclared means House members will not say how they intend to vote.
Now, undecided means they don't know yet. Texas Blue Dog Democrat Henry Cuellar was in that category yesterday when T.J. spoke with him during our show yesterday. Within the past 12 hours, he's joined the yes crowd, the reason? Something he talked about yesterday. A majority of people in his district, he says, cannot afford health care.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. HENRY CUELLAR (D), TEXAS: I've got a district that's in the top ten most uninsured districts in the whole country. At the same time as a Blue Dog, I want to look at what sort of impact this will affect on our country, what sort of impact it will have on our country?
The CBO numbers that came out are very promising; when you talk about reducing the deficit by $138 billion in the first ten years and $1.2 trillion in the next ten years, that's very promising.
But it's the issue about the cost; it's the issue, of course, of providing access.
REP. DENNIS KUCINICH (D), OHIO: I have fought long and hard for single payer, that's not in the bill. I fought for public option, couldn't get it in the bill. I tried to protect the right of states for two single payers; I couldn't get in the bill. And that lastly, what I was looking at was a decision whether to kill the bill or enable it to keep breathing with the hopes that that will be part of a larger discussion for comprehensive health care reform.
REP. PARKER GRIFFITH (R), ALABAMA: This is a bad bill. It has been a bad bill, because the premise of it has been faulty from the start. We would like for those who know that this is a bad bill to stay firm on their belief that it is not good for the American people and certainly not good for our patients and not good for the health care system in general.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BOUDREAU: So here is where it stands right now; we're just trying to break this down for you. The House convenes at 1:00 p.m. Eastern there will be three votes at the House's side to change the bill's language in anyway. The measure gets kicked back to the Senate for its approval.
And we're going wall-to-wall with special coverage of today's historic health care vote. Stay with us all day as we bring you the latest, right down to the actual vote right here on CNN.
HOLMES: Well, it is the scandal that the Catholic Church has no choice but to address. And the Pope took a step this weekend in addressing it, apologizing to sex abuse victims in Ireland.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTINE BUCKLEY, ABUSE VICTIM AND CAMPAIGNER: A sorry is the beginning. And that's all it is. It is the beginning. We need to see the Pope coming here. He needs to hear us, meet us in the flesh. We need to see him with our abuses in a reconciliation forum.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: Well, the apology extends only in the letter he wrote to victims in Ireland. But allegations are now popping up across six European countries.
So how does the Catholic Church move forward? That is where we want to begin our discussion with the CNN senior Vatican analyst, John Allen; always good to see you joining us this morning early from California. Thank you for being here.
I don't know if you were able to hear in that sound bite there from a woman who is saying this is only the first step. So if the letter is just the first step, what is the next step for the Pope and for the church?
JOHN ALLEN, CNN SENIOR VATICAN ANALYST: Hey, T.J. Well, I think the next step to some extent rests in the eye of the beholder. I think those inclined to be sympathetic to the Pope would say that he's already done much of what he needs to do. That is -- this is the Pope who broke the wall of silence about the sex abuse crisis. He has met with the victims and indicated he is willing to so again, eager to do so again.
He's disappointed some high-profile Roman priests who were previously thought of as untouchable and on and on. And so they would say the challenge is to stay the course. Now, obviously, those inclined to be critical on the other, including many victims and their advocates, will tell you there is a ton of unfinished business.
And the Pope's letter has stirred criticism in part for what it does not contain. It contains no new punitive measures, for bishops who failed to clean up this mess in the first place. No clear repudiation or what many would see as a pattern of secrecy inside the church. And perhaps most glaringly in the eyes of some -- it -- the Pope takes no personal responsibility or responsibility for the Vatican for this crisis, that is, he kind of raps the knuckles of priests and bishops but doesn't acknowledge that Rome itself played any part in this crisis.
And so I think, there's going to continue to be quite a bit of debate about where these lawsuits go.
HOLMES: Now, we are often used to seeing when it comes certainly to the political arena. When something, if there is a scandal or an issue -- they have a war room and you get all your best advisers together and you come up with a plan.
Now, is the Vatican doing that as well? Or how much does the Pope himself have influence in exactly how he, how the church, how the Vatican is going to handle this? I mean, what is going on in that head of his?
ALLEN: Well, I mean, first of all T.J., that if you think the White House is the model for how the Vatican does business, you've got bigger problems than trying to understand this letter because that's just not how it works.
I mean, the first is that one of the things that's complicated the sex abuse crisis from the beginning, is that it's about obviously, priests abusing children. And supervising priests is not something that is done directly by the Vatican; it's done by local bishops. So you've got these two different layers of authority. It's a bit like rivalries or tensions between, say the federal government and state governments in America. That -- it's not all this clear where responsibility lies.
But I think what is -- what is clearly happening now, which is different than when the American crisis erupted eight years ago in 2002, is the Vatican now understands it cannot sit out this debate. I mean, you may remember eight years ago, that when the crisis erupted in the States in January, we didn't hear word one from a Pope until June. I mean, basically six months after the initial explosion of the crisis.
And they were saying in Rome that this is an American problem; it's a campaign to hurt the church. That it's whipped up by lawyers and the media and dissidents and so on.
I mean today, the tone obviously is very, very different. And I think that's a recognition on the part of the Vatican that even though it can't supervise directly the 400,000 Catholic priests around the world --
HOLMES: Yes.
ALLEN: -- people are looking to it for leadership. And it's got to come through.
HOLMES: All right, last thing. And I have to ask you to do this for me quickly. Are some starting to question, will they question whether or not he has the moral authority to lead the church given that so many of the allegations that are coming up in Germany, where he is from, where he was a bishop, where he was overseeing someone who was accused of allegations, he didn't handle that so well, some would say. So are some going to question whether or not he is the man who can lead the church through this crisis?
ALLEN: Well, you're right, some are raising that question. And I think the answer ultimately would depend on if we learn anything more about his years in Germany. Right now, we're talking about one case. If a pattern should emerge, if that one case becomes five, ten, 20, then I think that question becomes a real problem for the Pope.
HOLMES: All right, John Allen, our senior Vatican analyst; always good to have you, always good to talk to you. Enjoy your time out there in California. I hope to talk to you again soon.
ALLEN: Thanks, T.J.
HOLMES: All right, we are counting down of course as well today, the health care reform vote. Five more no votes on the Democratic side and the bill is not going to pass. Both sides have been making claims about this bill for months. We need a reality check, don't we? That's up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: It is that time, of course. We just serve as the warmup act for the big show that comes up at 9:00 Eastern time with CNN's "STATE OF THE UNION WITH CANDY CROWLEY".
BOUDREAU: Right. And Candy is live in Washington where there is a little unfinished business of health care reform, right?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN HOST, "STATE OF THE UNION": Yes we are -- this whole day, we are watching what is going to be a major step although we should hasten to add this is not the last step. But the House of Representatives will take a vote today on health care reform. We expect it will pass.
If they don't have the votes, I expect they will delay the votes. But we expect that there are enough Democrats, 216 of them, who will, in fact, vote for health care reform and pass it back to the Senate, at least a portion of it back to the Senate, so moving closer and closer to the end.
HOLMES: Yes. Candy, how extraordinary, put it in some kind of perspective -- you have covered the town for quite some time. Extraordinary of an event we have seen really the past couple of days -- you can talk about the whole debate but really the past few days, especially yesterday and now this extraordinary day we are about to see today. We are talking about making history or they are talking about making history?
CROWLEY: Exactly. You know, so often, when you are reporting on things, as you know, it is so incremental. And there isn't a day when you think, ok, today, we'll read about this in the history book. Those are very few and far between but this is one of them.
Because we do know that not since Medicare in the '60s has there been this big a piece of legislation that would touch literally every American life that has come before Congress and if the House passes it, it is just a real hallmark and something that will appear in the history books. I'll tell you what, if it is defeated, it will also appear in the history books but maybe it won't be quite so large.
HOLMES: History, one way or another, a fascinating day. You, of course, you have a fascinating show as always. She is only 14 minutes away, folks.
Candy, always good to see you, thank you so much.
CROWLEY: Talk to you later. Thanks.
HOLMES: And again, she starts at 9:00 Eastern, 6:00 Pacific, Candy Crowley, "STATE OF THE UNION".
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BOUDREAU: With the health care bill down to the wire, we are hearing a whole new set of plans on both sides. But, are they true?
Our Josh Levs is here to tell us. Josh, you were talking before about a bunch of half truths.
JOSH LEVS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, ok. You are right. That is how it got labeled. So much is happening today and man, a lot of it online. I'm going to be showing you some of these reality checks. And there's one thing I want to mention first at the top. First of all, keep it on cnn.com all day for all the details.
Also earlier today, we mentioned James Oberstar -- and I want you to see this, the congressman who actually is now talking about on his Facebook page that he is supporting the health care reform legislation. Another piece of what we're hearing, a lot of Democrats saying they feel they are moving toward a place where they're going to have enough votes.
So we're keeping an eye on that online.
We are also doing a lot of back-checking for you. The things we are hearing on both sides.
Let's start off with something that President Obama has been saying.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: But this bill, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which is the referee, the scorekeeper for how much things cost, says it will save us $1 trillion. Not only can we afford to do this, we can't afford not to do this.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEVS: The president is saying the Congressional Budget Office says the nation will save more than $1 trillion over the next 20 years, he went on to say. Well, does the CBO actually say that? This is what Abbie was talking about Let me show you what the CBO actually says. They do say that over ten years, it will save $138 billion. But they were asked to look at the next ten years as well. And what they saw for the next ten years, they can't actually come up with a dollar figure.
Let's show this last thing and then we can end on that. They said that over the next ten years, they think it will save some money, a little -- half of a percent of GDP. How much money that will be, they don't know. The Obama administration is predicting what GDP will be and then they'll -- they're saying in total the nation will save more than $1 trillion.
Is that -- we have to go. Is that what's going on here. Ok. I think we have a lot of news coming up. I think I need to toss it back to you guys.
Obviously, throughout the day, keep it back on cnn.com for all the latest details.
BOUDREAU: Ok. Thanks, Josh.
LEVS: Thanks.
BOUDREAU: We're watching the river in Fargo, North Dakota, flooding fears and how people are coping. We've got the story.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
REYNOLDS WOLF, AMS METEOROLOGIST: I'm meteorologist, Reynolds Wolf, coming to you live from Fargo, North Dakota.
Right on my back, you have the Red River. Not only that, you have a couple of houses that are surrounded by water. Again, this place has been inundated by flood waters; second big flood that we've had in two years in (INAUDIBLE). We have the mayor with us this morning.
Mayor Dennis Walker, Mayor has had very little sleep over the last couple of days, I'm sure. How are things going?
MAYOR DENNIS WALKER, FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA: Good today. I mean sun shining is a big part of the process; everybody feels a little better with the sun. Everything seems to be holding up. I have to do some checking her shortly with NOAA (ph).
We are standing tall. We have to stand tall for a few more days yet.
WOLF: Great, great spirit of people here in the community.
WALKER: It is not time to light the cigars yet.
WOLF: The big question we have for you is when can people relax? When is the timing? I know, it is still a pretty dangerous situation right now. WALKER: Well, when you get above major flood stage, which is 30 feet, so that's when we can go ahead. We will have the water then at that time off all of the dykes in the city of Fargo. That's -- of course, you could still bounce up again.
But the problem gets down to -- is if we can -- the forecast sounds extremely good for next week so, it looks like we have dodged another bullet.
WOLF: Absolutely. We have our fingers crossed for you. We know that you are a very busy man. We're going to let you go get some much-needed sleep. And I know you probably won't but thank you so much for your time.
WALKER: Thank you.
WOLF: You bet. Well, that's the latest we have of course, here from Fargo; of course, and across the way over in Moorhead, Minnesota, pretty similar situation.
Let's send it back to you in the studio.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HOLMES: They say they have the votes. We are just getting word that the head of the Democratic caucus says that, in fact, they do have the 216 votes needed to pass the president's health care reform legislation. This word just coming across to us.
We have been telling you the magic number is 216 to pass it in the House. Once it passes, that's it. Health care reform, the president's signature domestic issue, therefore, will become the law of the land as soon as he puts his signature on it.
Now, some other procedural stuff needs to happen with the reconciliation bill. But the key number that they need, they say now that they have.
The House, of course, is going to be convening at 1:00 this afternoon. They have a number of steps they have to take. They have debates they have to do. They have three votes they have to take: one on a reconciliation bill, one on the actual bill itself and one on the rules. Not in that order but the key to all this and what you need to know is that 216 votes were needed by Democrats. They say that they have them.
However, Republicans have been saying all along that they thought that they might have the votes as well on the no side. This is a fluid situation, because it is hard to get all of the yeas and nays to raise their hands ahead of time. We still have plenty of people on the board and that we have been canvassing that say they are undeclared even some saying at this late hour that they are undecided.
But the key now is that the head of the Democratic caucus has come out and said that, in fact, they do have the 216 votes needed. We shall see in a matter of hours, even though the House does convene at 1:00 today, this could go into the evening with all the procedural steps that have to take place. Like I said, there are a couple of other votes that need to take place but this could go into the evening.
But the key now, we are hearing Democrats say that they do have the 216 votes.
Now, I mentioned the head of the Democratic caucus who is the one that's saying this, this morning, John Larson, the Democrat of Connecticut, he is going to be a guest on Candy Crowley's show, "STATE OF THE UNION" which is coming your way in just 40 minutes.
But we have been talking about this all morning -- here this morning, waiting to see and we've been counting heads and votes since Thursday.
But a big deal now is coming out. It's going to make it in time for all the Sunday shows now --
BOUDREAU: Oh, absolutely.
HOLMES: They're going to come out and say they have the votes.
BOUDREAU: This will be the talk of the day, I'm sure. And of course, the vote needs to still happen. But this is what they're saying now.
HOLMES: This is what they're saying. So, stay with us, CNN; we are of course going to be covering this all day long. We're going to have continuing live coverage throughout the day. Yes, those two places where a lot of activity is going on and might even be some celebrating at one or two of those places by Democrats by the end of the day.
But John Larson, the one who is saying they have the 216 votes, he's a guest on Candy Crowley's "STATE OF THE UNION" which starts right now.
