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Why Isn't Biden Running A Full Campaign?; Does The Punishment Fit The Crime? Immigration Is One Of The Biggest Issues In 2024; Biden Weighs Strict Asylum Policy As Trump Wants Mass Deportations; Can Haley Establish Herself As The Next In Line?. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired February 24, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MONICA IKEGWU, FIGURATIVE PAINTER: Because, you know, in society people can be -- they feel like they're overlooked. But my work is to draw attention and with the bright colors and it's to the point where like you see it and like you can't ignore it. It has to stand out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Monica Ikegwu has a show coming up in Baltimore in the fall at gallery Marty's. Well, thank you so much for joining me today. I will see you back here next Saturday at 08:00 a.m. Eastern right here. Smerconish is up next.

[09:00:38]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Palmetto primary. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

Voting is underway now in South Carolina. Unless all the polls are wrong, Donald Trump will score a big victory over Nikki Haley and move one step closer to securing the GOP nomination. This despite facing for criminal indictments and personal financial peril. On Friday, a New York state judge finalized a $355 million judgment against Trump and triggered a countdown for when Trump must put up cash or post bond to cover that amount, plus the roughly 100 million in interest that he was ordered to pay. That's a huge sum no matter what Trump's net worth might be, and it doesn't include the combined 88 million that he owes e Jean Carroll after twice losing civil trials to her.

You would think the combination of potential jail and financial collapse for the Republican candidate would build confidence among his Democratic detractors and independent never Trumpers. And instead the opposite is true. The political question on the minds of many is about his opponent, President Joe Biden. Is Biden the only Democrat who can beat Trump? Or is Biden the only Democrat Trump can beat?

One thing is for sure, there's no way Biden's minimalist mode of campaigning that which might have been appropriate amidst a pandemic in 2020 is going to escape scrutiny in 2024. An incumbent trailing in the national and battleground polls with an approval rating that on Friday, Gallup reported is only 38 percent needs to pursue every opportunity to turn the tide. Instead, this president turned down television time in an election year preceding the Super Bowl the most watched event ever. And many noticed, among them Democratic strategist James Carville, who told me here that it was a sign. And Carville has company, veteran political analyst Jeff Greenfield recently advised in Politico that, quote, "Biden will have to take the path he has avoided so far and engage with voters and with the press fully embracing the risks of further slips." "The New York Times" recently ran an editorial saying Biden must do better adding, quote, "He has had less substantive, unscripted interaction with the public and the press than any other president in recent memory.

In fact, since becoming president, Biden has done just 86 interviews. At this point in his predecessors presidencies, Trump had given 300, Barack Obama 422. Although he'll deliver the State of the Union address on March 7, that's going to be with the teleprompter.

Democratic Congressman Bennie Thompson, who chaired the select committee on January 6, quoted in roll call as saying "those of us who helped Joe Biden get elected president are not real comfortable at this point with what we're seeing." Democratic former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, quote, "We all have concerns. We want to make sure it's a victorious campaign."

As recline, New York Times columnist, political analyst recently asserted this on his podcast.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

EZRA KLEIN, OPINION COLUMNIST, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": I think Biden, as painful as this is, should find his way to stepping down as a hero, that the party should help him find his way to that, to being the thing that he said he would be in 2020, the bridge to the next generation of Democrats. And then I think Democrats should meet in August at the convention to do what political parties have done a convention so many times before, organize victory.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Then Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight posted this on his blog, "Personally, I crossed the Rubicon in November concluding that Biden should stand down if he wasn't going to be able to run a normal reelection campaign, meaning things like conduct a Super Bowl interview. Yes, it's a huge risk, and yes, Biden can still win."

Silver proposed Biden due for lengthy sit down interviews with non- friendly sources and make public a complete recording of those interviews. He says that Biden and his inner circle have to make sure he's really up for a second term, and is the best option for Democrats, quote, "If Biden was willing to take five hours to speak with special counsel Robert Hur, he ought to take five hours for this. And if he can't, it's awfully audacious to ask Americans to make him president for another four years."

Instead, this week we got a report from Axios that in close door fundraisers the President has been calling on prescreened donors and then relying on notecards with bullet points to provide answers. As Axios puts it, the system is in place, quote, "to help explain his own positions on questions he knows are coming."

[09:05:16]

And instead of availing himself of long form interviews to put forth his second term agenda or holding long press conferences, the President has been communicating via brief TikToks, choppy Twitter videos and brief press scrums. The campaign says it's just keeping up with the times but many wonder if he's going to avoid debates down the road. Biden supporters have also been quick to counter with Trump's many gaffes and relatively light campaign schedule.

But according to a Quinnipiac University poll that was released on Wednesday, more than two thirds of voters think that Biden is too old to effectively serve another term. When asked whether Trump is too old 41 percent said yes. Needless to say the administration is not happy with this stuff being said out loud and often.

"The New York Times" publisher A.G. Sulzberger recently said Biden is, quote, "a historically unpopular incumbent and the oldest man to ever hold this office. We've reported on both of those realities extensively, and the White House has been extremely upset about it."

My next guest, Emmy-winning legend, Bob Costas, was an early adopter of this point of view, as he recently recounted with Bill Maher.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOB COSTAS, EMMY-WINNING SPORTSCASTER: When it comes to Biden, this is like the truth that no one until very recently wants to say out loud, but my friends will tell you, I've been saying it for four years, this is "Emperor's New Clothes" stuff. Joe Biden should have run on a firm promise that he would be a one term president. The only reason he is president is that he's not Donald Trump, then the Dems could have gotten a lot of people up in the bullpen and they could have sorted through those people. If Biden's hubris is such that he doesn't understand the best interest of his party and more important his country, then he has to be shown the door.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: So, is President Biden the Democrats best chance at beating Donald Trump? I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com. Answer today's poll question. It reads like a puzzle. Which is more accurate, only Biden can be Trump or Trump can only beat Biden.

Bob Costas joins me now, 29 time Emmy-winner.

Bob, thank you for being here. Like the others that I've quoted from --

COSTAS: Hi, Michael.

SMERCONISH: -- you come at this from a position of not wanting to see Trump get elected. You should state that at the outset. True? COSTAS: Yes, absolutely. He is by far the most disgraceful figure in modern presidential history. He's only become more disgraceful since 2016 and since 2020, he has a bubbling cauldron of loathsome traits. And it's only those who are actually suffering from Trump derangement syndrome, which is the way they and Fox News and all the rest of MAGA media try to brush aside all the legitimate criticisms of Trump.

You have to be, in the throes of some sort of toxic delusion in a toxic cult, to believe that Donald Trump has ever been in any sense, emotionally, psychologically, intellectually or ethically fit to be president of the United States. But his supporters are locked in on that. There is no code --

SMERCONISH: OK.

COSTAS: -- of Joe Biden, even -- definitely finish this thought, Michael, even if he had not run explicitly with a pledge that he would be a one term president, even if halfway through this term, he had said, look, I've done my job. I have some policy successes, I'll continue to do my job. And now the Democrats can get, as I said before, some people up in the bullpen and sort through it. He had a chance to be seen as a statesman and a patriot. Now his legacy is likely to be that of a man whose hubris prevented him from seizing the moment in appropriate way.

And at best, he can squeak by Trump that's at best, or we could lose to Trump and subject the nation to four more years of this kind of ongoing insanity. Or if he squeaked by, it's very likely that he cannot complete his second term, he'd be 86 at the end of it.

SMERCONISH: Is it possible that you're not giving the incumbent his just do? I'm going to put up on the screen and I'll read aloud so that you know what I'm talking about. Stuart Stevens is a former Republican political consultant, now with the Lincoln project, quote, "The stock market is hitting record highs. Unemployment is at a record low with 14 million new jobs. Talk to small business owners, the biggest problem they're facing is finding workers."

He goes on to talk about infrastructure, prescription drugs, gas prices and says Joe Biden has assembled a hell of a record. No one's giving him credit for that.

COSTAS: I think he's getting some credit for it. But here's the key, he cannot make that case for himself. He cannot make a clear cogent vigorous case for himself nor can he prosecute the obvious case against Trump in the court of public opinion.

[09:10:11]

Gavin Newsom frequently goes on these programs like yours, and makes a very articulate and detailed case for President Biden. But all it makes me and millions of others think is, Biden is incapable of uttering even two consecutive sentences of the five perfect paragraphs that Newsom just put together. And I think Nate Silver, you quoted earlier, saying that he's got to get out there and do four interviews with unfriendly or at least down the middle, not softball interviews. But the problem with that is, his own staff knows that he has to be bubble wrapped, that he can't do a Super Bowl interview.

It's sad to say, Biden is obviously unbalanced a decent man, he's served his country, and no matter what, sane people will vote for him over Trump, but it's a hell of a risk to send this guy out there. Trump is a monster, you shouldn't send this guy out there at this point in his life to try and slay the dragon.

SMERCONISH: Bob, I know the reaction that you will receive. I'm sure that you've already received from in a way with candor, expressing yourselves -- expressing yourself, you obviously believe that it's something you have to do, right? I mean, speak to the reaction that you've heard, and your willingness to endure the criticism and say these things.

COSTAS: You know, look, most of my career has been in sports, I think fair minded people who are familiar with it know, however, that I'm reasonably conversant with other topics. But as I said, at the top with Bill Maher, this is "Emperor's New Clothes" stuff. If people aren't familiar with the fairy tale, the emperor was naked, no one wanted to say it, a little child was able to say it. This is common sense stuff. And as a concerned citizen -- I feel as if I was on Bill Maher, I didn't know for sure what he'd asked.

He asked me the question, I told them what I've been thinking about for years. I think that resonates with many people. Of course, there are people who say, and this is the card they've been playing for a long time, yes, we kind of know it's true. But don't say that, that will only help Donald Trump. Well, how feckless are the Democrats?

If they realize that this guy could possibly lose to Trump, then get somebody else out there? You don't go into the Super Bowl with a quarterback who has a dead arm, or the seventh game of the World Series that people are more comfortable with me talking in sports terms. You don't do it? This is just so obvious.

SMERCONISH: I know that I receive criticism by having this type of a conversation and people will say you're electing Donald Trump. And my response is to say, no, you're electing Donald Trump if you have a candidate who's not up to the task and you don't think anyone else is noticing. You get the final word, but you've only got 30 seconds.

COSTAS: Well, a final word, I'll remind people what they shouldn't have to be reminded of concerning Trump. What his former chief of staff said, John Kelly, the depth of his dishonesty is astonishing. He is a person who has no idea what America is all about. A person who has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution and the rule of law. God help us all.

The Trump delusion is not going away on the right. But sane Democrats have to offer a compelling alternative. Biden for all he has accomplished and for all his basic decency is not a compelling figure any longer.

SMERCONISH: Thank you, Bob Costas. Appreciate it.

COSTAS: Thank you, Michael. SMERCONISH: What are you thinking? Hit me up on social media. I'll read some responses throughout the course of the program.

What do we have Catherine (ph)? Are you a Trump -- right. I mean, there we go. I didn't know that was coming because I never know any of the social media that are coming. But that's exactly what I'm talking about. Cathy Baron doesn't want to hear it.

And I guess thinks that the ostrich approach is the way to go. Because, hey, don't say it, no one will notice. Everyone's noticed, Cathy, and I think that Bob is courageous for his willingness to offer the opinion that he just did in an effort, in his view to say, hey, wait a minute. You know, ignoring the emperor with no clothes is going to get Donald Trump elected. Is that really what we want to do? Or does this require a rethinking before the convention comes?

I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com. Answer today's poll question. Yes, I said it reads like a bit of a puzzle. Only Biden can beat Trump.

Only Biden. He's the only guy. He did it before. He's the only one who can do it again. Or Trump can only beat Biden.

Meaning if it weren't Biden, Trump couldn't win. Go vote.

Up ahead, Donald Trump is arguing that the $355 million verdict for fraud was improper because there weren't any victims. Is that accurate?

[09:15:00]

And while President Biden considers an executive action to restrict migrants ability to seek asylum, Donald Trump is pledging that if reelected he will, quote, "launch the largest domestic deportation operation in American history." Will either approach work?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Does the punishment fit the crime? Donald Trump will have 30 days to appeal the ruling in a New York civil fraud case that accused him of overstating the value of his real estate properties. Once the former president and others are served, the countdown will then begin on Friday. New York Judge Arthur Engoron finalize the judgment and interest payments against Trump and his companies ordering them to pay at least $454 million. And State Attorney General Letitia James says she's prepared to seize Trump's buildings if he's unable to pay the fine.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LETITIA JAMES, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF NEW YORK: If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, and then we will seek, you know, judgment enforcement mechanisms in court. And we will ask the judge to seize his assets.

(END VIDEO CLIP) SMERCONISH: Part of Trump's appeal will argue that there were no victims since all of the lenders impacted by his financial statements were repaid with interest. Plus, the AP found that of 12 other reported cases brought under the same New York anti-fraud statute that received serious penalties, Trump's is the only one without an alleged victim or financial loss.

[09:20:16]

In his ruling, the judge wrote this, "Timely and total repayment of loans does not extinguish the harm that false statements inflict on the marketplace. Indeed, the common excuse that everybody does it is all the more reason to strive for honesty and transparency and to be vigilant in enforcing the rules. Here, despite the false financial statements, it is undisputed that defendants have made all required payments on time, the next group of lenders to receive bogus statements might not be so lucky."

My next guest co-author this Wall Street Journal op-ed with Jeb Bush, under the heading "Elon Musk and Donald Trump Cases Imperil the Rule of Law." Joining me now is co-founder of Palantir and managing partner of 8VC, Joe Lonsdale.

Joe, thank you for being here. I'm curious, your co-author, Jeb Bush, no fan of Donald Trump. Why did he feel compelled to weigh in on this?

JOE LONSDALE, CO-AUTHOR, WJS OP-ED "ELON MUSK AND DONALD TRUMP CASES IMPERIL THE RULE OF LAW": You know, Michael, I've never given Donald Trump is sent either. I love America. I've built a lot of businesses in this country. I love building and investing here. And this is very scary.

I see I see the government weaponized against my friend, Elon Musk. And listen, I don't love Donald Trump. But I was just with a bunch of my business friends who don't love him either, and all of them thanked me for writing this. They said, Joe, this is scary. What they're telling me is that if I speak up, if I run for office, they're going to come and they're going to find a huge way to penalize me for something, that's just absolutely ridiculous.

Like, everyone knows, Donald Trump probably didn't do this perfectly, but they know that dozens of others didn't either. And it's obvious he's been penalized an insane amount of money, because he's Donald Trump. And that's not how America is supposed to work.

SMERCONISH: OK. You know, the arguments in opposition to this being quote, unquote, "victimless." The idea is that he inflated his value, therefore, was given preferential interest rates. Even if he repaid them, he took advantage of those banks. You would say what to that?

LONSDALE: I would say there's no one else in this country who would ever be fined even $50 million for this. And fining him $400 million for this or whatever it is, is clearly because she's trying to get Donald Trump. And it's the same thing with what's happening to Elon right now. It's activist judges who are saying if you speak up, if you're a target of our political party of our ideology, I mean, Elon has the DOJ going after him heavily, he has Labor Department going after him, as these fish and wildlife people delaying things for months for silly reasons being here, my book reports, you know, to them. The whole the whole system right now is being weaponized and it's scary and it's wrong.

And so what happens in emerging markets is not what happens in great countries like America, and we need it to stop.

SMERCONISH: So I read aloud from Judge Engoron's opinion on this issue that you and I are now discussing, were there real victims? And he says, it doesn't wash. If you say, well, everybody, does it, and why is this guy getting singled out? One of the things that the judge made clear, in his opinion is that it kind of necessitates baking into these type of calculations and negotiations, the fraud factor.

And that if someone like Trump gets reined in, it makes it a more equitable system for everyone who follows. How about that argument?

LONSDALE: Michael, so you'd have something that everyone -- it's like everyone's driving over the speed limit. In a communist country like China, everyone's always guilty of breaking the law. In America, at some point, we have a million regulations.

I don't think Trump necessarily handle this perfectly. It's not a $400 million fine. It's like basically what happens in these countries when you have a regime takeover that's going after its enemies is you weaponize it and you penalize people ridiculous ways. This is an obvious example of that. This is why it's scary to my friends who do business who don't even like Trump, because it's a -- $400 million fine for something where there's no victims is obviously a weaponization of government, and everyone knows on its face.

And again, these are my friends, love them send me e-mails screaming about Trump. They're telling me, Bob Costas, just as he was just on, they hate him, but they're in business. And they know that penalizing that much in business is clearly weaponization. And so to me, seeing this as not just --

SMERCONISH: OK.

LONSDALE: -- against Trump, it gets all these are people. It's not how the country's supposed to work.

SMERCONISH: OK. Let me try one more time. This is now my third argument, trying to play devil's advocate with you because you said something about driving. There's a law professor named Orin Kerr (ph), and he used a driving analogy. He said, it's like, if you're driving drunk, and you don't hurt anybody, but you were still driving drunk, you got to get punished because the next time you might hurt somebody. How about that?

LONSDALE: I think driving drunk kills a lot of people is a horrible thing. And this thing is not equivalent to something as a horrible thing that kills a lot of people. You know, the governor of New York, even on the left made it clear that this is something that was specifically because it was Donald Trump. And it's -- if you want to penalize him a little bit for this to kind of like slap his hand because he's Donald Trump and just show others as an example, that would be one thing. You know, if you'd fine a $20 million, they would have said, that's kind of ridiculous, but I wouldn't have written the peace. But if you try to find someone enough to hurt him, to punish him, that's just not how this is supposed to work with a victimless crime.

[09:25:06]

SMERCONISH: Joe, I'm playing devil's advocate with you. Because here last week, I said it would have had more credibility if it were $11 million. The fact that it was 355 just made it incredible, frankly, and, you know, well enough. Thank you. I got to roll. But I appreciate you being here.

Let's see what you're saying on social media.

LONSDALE: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Catherine, what do we have? Via Twitter? I'm not sure. Trump is wrong about his victimless crime. If banks knew his real values, they could have charged him more interest, therefore they lost money.

Right. Rodney, that's exactly the point that I made. I mean, there's a twofold argument. You know, one is to say that he was able to take advantage, you know, not of the front door interest rate, but the back door interest rate because of the value that he was claiming. He got preferential treatment because of the net worth premised on the value of the real estate.

The second is that you got to rein this in, because otherwise there's just too much of it in the industry. But I've made myself clear, 355 million is a crazy number, is a crazy number. And I'm going to tell you something else that a lot of you are not going to want to hear, it helps him politically. And the only thing that will help him more is if Letitia James should now make a move on the Trump Tower. Oh my god, that would like lock up the election for him.

I want to remind you, go to my website at smerconish.com Answer this, it's like a puzzle, lot of complaints about it. You're not thinking hard enough. Which is more accurate, only Biden can beat Trump. He's the only one who can do it. Or Trump can only beat Biden?

Because anybody other than Biden, Trump could never win. Cannot wait to see the result of that.

Up ahead, the White House is considering a change of tune in executive action to restrict illegal immigrants. Is it going to work? I'll ask one of just three Republican congressmen who voted against impeaching the DHS secretary.

And is Nikki looking for a Haley Mary. Whatever the results of today's GOP primary in South Carolina, its former governor swear she's staying in the race. Is this because she thinks should anything before Trump's candidacy her delegate count will make her the most likely backup? Please make sure that you sign up for my free daily newsletter when you vote at smerconish.com. You're going to get links to a wide range of stories every day and also exclusive editorial cartoons.

Rob Rogers drew that. Today is the two year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:31:48]

SMERCONISH: Immigration, one of the biggest issues in the 2024 election. Recent polling shows that 79 percent of people consider the current situation at the border a crisis. Just last month, U.S. Border Patrol reported more than 100,000 encounters along the U.S.-Mexico border. In December, encounters had surpassed 300,000 people.

Former President Trump has been vocal on the campaign trail calling for a more aggressive approach to stopping illegal border crossings. "The Washington Post" reports that Trump and his allies are planning militarized mass deportations and detention camps.

By the way, this article alone drove over 13,000 passionate comments as of the time I was reading it. I pulled my own audience at Smerconish.com. Over 26,000 of you responded, 58 percent agreeing there should be mass deportations. According to a CNN poll, 81 percent of Republicans, 46 percent of independents would be in support of Trump deporting and detaining millions of undocumented immigrants.

But as U.S. citizens are becoming more frustrated with the immigration system, the White House is now considering taking executive action. President Biden's plan would restrict migrants from seeking asylum if they crossed the border illegally. This would conflict with previous policies, allowing anyone who enters the U.S. to ask for safe haven. But Biden is not the first president to attempt this strategy. In 2018, federal courts blocked similar efforts proposed by President Trump to block rising migration to the U.S.

This national frustration hit a tipping point earlier this month when the House voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. House Republicans claim Mayorkas ignored immigration laws and has contributed to the worsening crisis at the southern border. Only three Republican lawmakers voted against impeaching Mayorkas. Representatives, Ken Buck, Mike Gallagher, and Tom McClintock questioned whether these criticisms justified an impeachment.

Joining me now to further discuss his decision is Congressman Ken Buck. Congressman, thank you for being here. Trump is talking about mass deportation. Biden seems poised to limit asylum by executive order, which is the better necessary approach?

REP. KEN BUCK (R-CO): Michael, all of the above. Frankly, we've -- we've -- we have 1.3 to 1.5 million people in this country who have already been adjudicated, that they are here illegally. And ICE is not looking for them, and ICE has been ordered not to look for them. And they need to be deported. So that is a mass deportation. I'm not suggesting 12 million people right now, but there are 1.3 to 1.5 million who should be deported. In addition to that, we need to stop the crisis that is occurring in our border and stop people from coming across the border illegally, coming into this country claiming that they deserve asylum when in fact they're coming here for economic reasons. They can't point to a specific harm that they're leaving their country for.

So, the Biden plan was the old Trump plan. And what President Trump is talking about doing now is enforcing the rule of law.

SMERCONISH: How realistic that anything can get done shy of executive action, which the president could do on his own, given that we're in the thick now of this presidential campaign?

[09:35:03]

BUCK: There will be no legislative action on immigration. It's sad but true. Our legislative system is broken right now when it comes to very difficult issues like immigration.

It's going to take executive action. It's going to take a remain in Mexico policy. It's going to take a renewal of the deportations to the countries of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras. It's going to take the kinds of things -- it's going to take finishing the wall, frankly, in order to stop a lot of what's going on right now.

SMERCONISH: Congressman, let me switch gears. Today is the two-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I know you have strong concerns as to the status of the war. Speak to those if you would please.

BUCK: Well, as a Republican, I'm embarrassed that my party is holding up funding that absolutely needs to be made to Ukraine to let them fight the Russian invasion. It is ironic to me that we just have been dealing with a memo issue that -- that involved Russian disinformation in this country. We're now also dealing with Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine.

There's many parallels about how Russia is infecting and affecting the politics of the United States. We need to get past that. We need to understand the threat that Russia has and is to the -- to the European countries, our allies, our trading partners, those who share our values much more than other countries around the world. And I am -- I'm really ashamed that the Republican Party doesn't step up, recognize this threat, and support the people of Ukraine who are fighting, who are dying in this war.

SMERCONISH: It seems as the point I just made about the debate that we were having over migration and the border crisis, that this is yet another issue that's trapped in the election cycle. Do you see any prospect that anything changes relative to Ukraine defending itself against Russia between now and the election?

BUCK: I do. I think it has to change. It would be a terrible burden for any Republican candidate to take into the election cycle, to be blamed for the mass loss of life that will occur if Russia takes all of Ukraine and the threats to our NATO allies, and a war that none of us want to see, a world war between major nuclear powers.

So, I think that we have to move. The Senate moved, they have passed a bill. It will be in the House. There are many procedural mechanisms to get that bill across the finish line but that bill has to move. And we have to support the people of Ukraine with the weapons they need to fight their own war.

SMERCONISH: Congressman Ken Buck, thank you so much for your time.

BUCK: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Still to come today, the GOP South Carolina primary polls put its former governor Nikki Haley on track to lose bigly but she has pledged to stay in the race until the end. Does she have a shot? If Trump doesn't last, will the Grand Old Party turn to her?

Please don't forget vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Which is more accurate only Biden can beat Donald Trump, or Donald Trump can only beat Joe Biden? While you're there sign up for the daily newsletter. It's free. It's worthy.

Jack Ohman -- oh, my god. I love this. This is Jack Ohman's take on the release of the Trump sneakers. Check it out.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:42:56]

SMERCONISH: If Donald Trump, for whatever reason, is not the GOP nominee, will it be Nikki Haley? Polls opened at 07:00 a.m. today in Haley's home state of South Carolina, where she's been promising at rallies that she's in until the last person votes. Contending that she's a better general election candidate for the party.

Her campaign has spent bigly in the state. According to AdImpact's data as of this week, pro-Haley advertisers spend around 16.2 million in advertising in South Carolina compared to about 1.3 million for pro-Trump advertisers. And yet in poll after poll, Trump's support in the state has been more than double its former governor.

According to the most recent CBS YouGov survey, Trump leads Haley among likely South Carolina primary voters 65 to 30. This week, the Trump campaign issued a memo called The End is Near for Nikki Haley. It says that under the most generous model for Haley, Trump will still have earned the requisite number of delegates needed to be the GOP nominee, 1,215 by March the 19th. And that at the current trend, he could lock it up on March 12th. So why nevertheless, does she persist?

Joining me now to discuss is GOP strategist, CNN senior political commentator David Urban, who advised the Trump campaigns of 2016 and 2020. David, her play seems to be, I'll be the last person standing. I'll have a block of delegates in case Trump can't go. But would that necessarily give it to Nikki Haley? DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR/REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: No. No, Michael, I can't see a universe, right, that Nikki Haley goes to the convention. I mean, let's just play this out for -- for a minute, right? So, we get to the convention in Milwaukee and say some black swan event occurs and Donald Trump cannot be the nominee.

The way the Republican rules work to the best my recollection is delegates are bound on their first vote. So, they have to vote for who they, you know, who they were elected for. So, there would be some voting for Trump, some voting for Haley under this theory. And then on the second ballot they'd be free to vote for whoever they wanted to. And I can't see those Trump delegates turning around and voting for Nikki Haley at the convention.

[09:45:05]

I think it's just implausible if that ever gets to that case, which is not going to. So, I don't understand what her endgame is. She seems to be at this point is lighting people's money on fire.

SMERCONISH: OK, so is it a VP play? Is it a 2028 play?

URBAN: Yes. You know, Michael, originally at one point in time I thought, well, she's going to -- she's going to get in there and make the case that she's the only person that could really help Donald Trump and, you know, in Lower Merion, in the Philly suburbs, in the -- you know, in the soft places in America that need a little -- Donald Trump needs a little softening. And so, I thought that was the case, but then it seems like she burned the boats at one point here and I'm not sure that the blood is -- there's a lot of bad blood right now between the two camps. I can't see that happening.

But listen, you know, there's only one person that gets to pick here and its Donald Trump. And I think that maybe, you know, if he has shown, if somebody smart shows him a poll that says, the only way you win is with Nikki Haley, he didn't pick Nikki Haley, but it would be -- it would be pretty dire straits for him to pick Nikki Haley at this point. And in 28, Michael, it's 100 years from now.

SMERCONISH: Right. David, you and I know that the national polls and the battleground polls each show that at this moment in time, Trump is leading Biden. Democrats and Never Trumpers they say, well, yes, but in those polls, when people are asked if Trump were convicted, would you abandon him? And many say they would.

I'm going to put on the screen in an essay that was published at "Slate" this week from Ben Mathis-Lilley. And he says, "On the other hand, what if these voters are full of it -- meaning they're lying. For years, the people of the United States have often told pollsters that they think Donald Trump has done terrible things, only to end up voting for him.

So, my question to you, because you know so well, the MAGA base. Would members of that base a significant number necessarily ditch Trump because of these legal issues, if they resulted in conviction? URBAN: No, no. You know, Michael, we've seen this, right? We've seen this after the Alvin Bragg case. We've seen this after every -- every time the charges get filed, the former president's popularity goes up, especially amongst the base, especially amongst people who feel that he is, that this law affair is unjustly targeting him.

So, I think that those polling -- that polling is a little bit off. I don't think that -- look, some people may bail but I don't think those are true Trump voters to begin with. Interesting, Michael, I don't think that that poll correctly asks, you know, if -- would you vote for Joe Biden? Right? If Joe Biden were the nominee -- is the Democratic nominee, would you vote for him instead?

I think, you know, it just poses the one question. It doesn't ask the second follow-up question which I think is important. But look, I don't -- I don't think there's any universe at which Donald Trump is not the nominee. And I don't think there's any universe which the Republican base would bail on Donald Trump convicted or not convicted.

SMERCONISH: And finally, we have a very special viewer today. What am I speaking of?

URBAN: Yes. So, Michael, my mom is kind of banged up in the hospital at Pittsburgh. There she is, my great mom. And I just want to tell her, you know, hang in there, mom. People are praying for you and pulling for you.

So that's my -- that's my Yinz shirt, Michael, from Pittsburgh, if you know. Your Pittsburgh viewers will get it. So, I just want to say, love her and hang in there. We're all pulling and praying for you.

SMERCONISH: Godspeed to your mom. Thank you, David.

URBAN: Thanks, Michael. Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Still to come, more of your best and worst social media comments. Don't forget to vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Which is more accurate only Biden -- he's the only one -- only Biden can beat Trump? Or Trump can only beat Biden? If for anybody else he'd never be in contention.

Be sure to sign up for the Smerconish.com daily newsletter. You're going to find exclusive content from political cartoonists. OK. Hang on a second, check that out from Steve Breen. Is that hilarious and somewhat accurate?

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[09:53:27]

SMERCONISH: OK. That's the results so far of today's poll question at Smerconish.com. A lot of voting, 31,475. We appreciate that. Which is more accurate?

I forced a binary choice, only Biden. He's the only one who can beat Donald Trump. He did it before. We need him again, 54 percent agree with that, 46 percent agree with the proposition that Trump can only beat Biden. If it were anybody other than Biden, Trump would never be competitive.

Here's some social media reaction that came in during the course of the program. If you haven't voted yet, you can still go and vote at Smerconish.com.

Or C, anyone under 70 with a pulse and a party nomination could beat either of them.

Right, Joe. I mean, I get it and a lot of people are beefing and saying, you should have given us a neither selection. But I wanted to force the binary because I keep hearing those two schools of thought about these individuals. Well -- and maybe you're going to get your choice if there's a third-party candidate out there when all the dust settles, who will make it competitive.

What else, Catherine, came in during the course of today's program? Social media.

If this doesn't show the bias TDS -- I guess, that's Trump derangement syndrome -- and emotional voting of this audience that I don't know what does. The only person that can lose to Trump is Biden. A poll with generic Democrat has them destroying Trump. Dems dump Biden now to beat Trump -- please.

Well, by the way, Charles, the reverse of that is to say its Election Day today in South Carolina. And Nikki Haley runs better against Joe Biden. Then does Donald Trump. And has that caused Republicans to pause and think about Nikki Haley?

[09:55:01]

No, it has not. Not in any great number. More social media reaction. What do we have?

I don't think Biden will lose. Too many negatives for Trump and the abortion issue will be huge.

Well, there's -- there's an interesting poll question and one that I'm going to get to very soon, which is the more -- and I've done it before. But given Alabama and you see that Trump came out against that judicial opinion, the IVF opinion in Alabama. But given the Alabama issue, it's like abortion just keeps coming back to the front page. Which is the more potent political story right now for the general election, is it border control or is it choice, abortion, you know, loosely described?

I don't know. That's a great, great question. And it's very fluid. Another one. I love this. We're moving quick and we're getting a lot in. What do we have?

Smerconish-Costas 2024. The ticket Sane Americans need now.

Wow. Can we just leave that up on the screen for a long time? One more and I'm finished. Catherine, give me another one before I hit the door. What do we got?

We all know it's going to be Newsom versus Haley. On a side note, as Canadians you guys are freaking us out.

I don't see it being Newsom versus Haley. I can -- I can see -- I can see Newsom more than I can see Haley. Thank you for watching. See you.

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