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Smerconish

Can A Manhattan Jury Be Fair To Trump?; Inflation Is #1 Issue For Voters; Student Absences Spike Across The Nation In Post-Pandemic Era. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired April 13, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

RUSS REDHEAD, KIDNEY DONOR, HARRIS' FRIEND: I'm doing this because like I said, it's the right thing to do. And I think that if the roles were reversed, I would want somebody to step up for me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Russ Redhead, thank you for stepping up. And Russ and James, I see you.

Thank you for joining me today. I'll see you back here next Saturday at 08:00 a.m. Eastern. Smerconish is up next.

[09:00:36]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN HOST: Two days until Trump trial. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia with this question, do you have a state of mind that would preclude you from rendering an impartial verdict based upon evidence a deuced at the trial of former President Donald Trump? Because that's the question that will be front and center on Monday when jury selection begins and Trump becomes the first former president to ever face criminal prosecution. Said differently said more simplistically, can trump get a fair trial in Manhattan? That's today's poll question at smerconish.com.

Here's what he said yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No jury selection is largely luck. It depends who you get. It's very unfair that I'm having a trial there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Judge Juan Merchan from the New York Supreme Court has the difficult task of setting a fair and impartial jury. Twelve jurors, six alternates in a Manhattan borough where Trump in 2020 received only 12.3 percent of the vote. In 2016 against Hillary Clinton, he got less than 10 percent. No wonder then that 500 or so prospective jurors will be summoned for consideration.

Trump faces 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money payment to a former adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Jurors will have to determine whether the payment was a violation of state and federal election law, meaning that Trump paid the money for the purpose of silencing Daniels with an eye toward his reelection. Or as Trump will argue was it made to spare his family from embarrassing disclosures in regardless of the election. Twelve jurors must make that decision by a unanimous verdict. So, how exactly does a jury get selected?

Well, in this case after answering 42 questions designed by the judge to elicit bias, it's a process that happens in civil and criminal courtrooms all across the country every day it's called vwahr deer or to speak the truth. O.J. Simpson's death this week reminded everybody about his trial which of course was televised. The Simpson jury selection process, the selection process took two months. As Sarah Esker recently wrote in the dispatch to define 12 Jurors attorney started with 250 people who were asked to fill out a 79 page 294 question -- questionnaire. In Trump's case, despite the defendant, they won't be asked who they voted for previously or who they will vote for in the future nor whether they think the 2020 election was stolen. They will be asked whether they belong to advocacy groups, what media they follow, whether they have any political, moral, intellectual or religious beliefs that prevent them from following court instructions if they've participated in activism for or against Trump politically, whether they've ever belonged to QAnon, or Antifa.

And perhaps most importantly, whether they can set aside anything they've heard previously and decide the case solely based on evidence presented at trial. On Friday, Trump's lawyers argued the jury questionnaire lacks a question to, quote, "identify potential jurors who aligned with rival political parties that are not necessarily anti-Trump but could still support a disqualifying bias that is worthy of follow up inquiry by defense." The lawyers are asking that if the judge doesn't amend the questions, they be allowed to ask questions to explore any affiliations. The jurors will be given anonymity in a move normally reserved for cases involving the mafia or drug cartels.

And in a letter to lawyers last week, Judge Merchan made it clear that any jurors or prospective jurors who want out will have their wishes honored. Based on his prior experience presiding over the case of the people of the state of New York versus the Trump Organization, the judge said that questioning every person who self identifies that they cannot be fair or impartial, or is otherwise unable to serve would be unnecessarily, time consuming and have no benefit. So, how hard is it to seek a jury in Manhattan that will sit in judgment of Donald Trump? That's today's poll question. Go to smerconish.com and cast a ballot, can trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

My first guest knows something about this question. William J. Brennan is a veteran criminal defense attorney who as co-counsel with Michael van der Veen represented the Trump payroll corporation in the 2022 criminal case in front of the same judge and in the same courtroom. Brennan conducted the vwahr deer in that case. And William J. Brennan joins me now.

[09:05:14]

Bill, thank you for being here. What stands out from your jury selection process?

WILLIAM J. BRENNAN, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Good morning, Michael. The biggest difference will be that, in our case, same courtroom, same judge, same type of case criminal, we had an entity, a corporate entity, our client was the Trump payroll corporation. In this case, the former president of the United States will be in the courtroom. Huge difference.

SMERCONISH: Were there circumstances? I'm sure there were. Maybe you can share one with us where you thought someone should have been removed for cause and Judge Merchan thought otherwise?

BRENNAN: Yes, there were quite a few actually. One comes to mind. We had a questionnaire. I don't think it was quite as long as this one that I saw in the current case, but I think questions 29 and 30 were something like, do you have strong opinions about the former president and that was 29. And 30 was, if so, would they affect your ability to be fair.

And we have one prospective juror, and I've been picking juries, really since the late 80s, a long, long time, and you know, you think you have some intuitive skill set develop them, but I saw a female juror probably in her 40s casually dressed, she had an Irish brogue, she worked at Irish bar, normally my type a juror in a criminal case, and she had checked off 29 and 30. And it was late in the day and I asked her, I see you've checked these off, with those strong feelings be positive or negative. And she says, I despised that man. And I guess I just maybe was beat up from the long day. But I said, well, look, you don't have to sugarcoat it for me, speak your mind.

She said, I speak my mind, I hate him. And, you know, I've never experienced that. And I looked at Judge Merchan and, you know, I just kind of assumed that he would meet my gaze and we would dismiss her. But Judge Mmerchan who was a very smart and capable judge and he ran a tight ship, he said, well, wait a minute. He said, if I told you what the law was, and instructed you on the law, could you put those feelings aside and deliver a fair verdict?

And she said, yes. And it's been my experience. And I suspect it was your experience when you're actively practicing law that when a prospective juror is in the courtroom, and there's the pomp and circumstance and the judge is in his or her black robe, most people do say yes. So, he kept her for the next round, which really meant he was going to keep her. And we came up with a different strategy, she had a parental health issue she was dealing with, and we got her out that way.

But Michael, the problem was not that prospective juror, it was like rows of shark teeth. Once she went there were 50 More behind her. So, you know, we got rid of her, did not use a (inaudible) but they're difficult.

SMERCONISH: OK. Well, Bill, Bill, let me ask you this, more, are you more -- are you more concerned in vwahr deer when it's a Trump affiliated corporation or as it'll be Monday with the man himself? Are you more concerned representing him about the woman with the Irish brogue who says, I hate him, or the sleeper who's not telling you anything, and not showing you where they're coming from?

BRENNAN: Well, you just hit the nail on the head. That's -- you know, she was obvious. If she had her fin out of the water, you could see, you know, you can see where she was from the boat. It's the sharks that are under the water that are the problem. And when somebody checks no box, and you just have a feeling, boy, I don't think this guy's going to be good for us.

And you say, well, you know, sir, on paper, you appear to be the perfect juror, but you're sure there's not anything, maybe something even in your own mind that will cause you to give pause or hesitation and tetra now good. Put me in coach and I'm fine. I'll be great. That's the juror that scares me because, as you said, it's a sleeper cell juror. And you know, Michael --

SMERCONISH: OK. What --

BRENNAN: -- to remember where we pick from up there. You pick from the island of Manhattan.

SMERCONISH: So, one of the mindset that it only takes one, you know, the rule of it only takes one you're just looking for that one who could make sure there's not a unanimous verdict. Does that apply when it's Donald Trump or a Trump related affiliate?

BRENNAN: I think that applies in any criminal case. Look, we go into every case that we decide to try with an eye towards winning but a lot of times in criminal law you play for the fumble. You need a unanimous jury of 12 in most jurisdictions to get a conviction. And if you get one juror as a holdout, that hung jury can really be a game changer. And I think it does apply.

[09:10:01]

But I think it's tougher when the defendant, you know, is this particular defendant, and it's just the island of Manhattan that provides the potential jury pool.

SMERCONISH: OK, Bill, you're uniquely qualified to address this subject, like the whole world is wondering about the jury selection process in a Trump related case, you did it in front of this judge and in the same courtroom. So what's your answer to my poll question today? Can Donald Trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

BRENNAN: It'd be better off in Staten Island, Michael. It's a tough -- it's a tough group to pick from. You know, it's often said that his name, you know, across the country, 50 percent feel one way and 50 another way, but it's been my experience having pick going through hundreds of prospective jurors that on that island, it's not a 50-50 split. My experience only.

SMERCONISH: William J. Brennan, thank you for the insight, really appreciate it.

BRENNAN: Thank you, Michael. SMERCONISH: Remember, I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com. How could it be anything else? This is today's poll question. Can Trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media. I'll read some throughout the course of the program. What do we have from the world of X? Setting it up, aren't you Smerconish?

Yes, I'm trying to pull a fast one on you. What was her name? Laura. I'm trying to pull a fast one on you having invested the time to study the jury questionnaire to track down and bring to you the lawyer who actually conducted vwahr deer, it's all just me pulling a fast one on you.

No, I'm delving into the issue of whether people could put aside their biases for and against the man and render a fair verdict, because that's the question of the day and it's going to be the question of the next several weeks as we watch this play out. So you're welcome, Laura.

Still to come, with the consumer price index again on the rise, it's still the economy, stupid. Within three decades after James Carville coined the phrase, inflation is the primary concern of voters. But are the price tags of certain everyday items like a Snickers bar warping consumer emotions about the overall cost of living? And if you subscribe, remember to the daily newsletter when you cast your ballot at smerconish.com, remember, you're going to get editorial cartoons from the legends, Rob Rogers drew this very timely cartoon.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:17:00]

SMERCONISH: The consumer price index rose 3.5 percent in March. The CPI measures the price of a typical American consumer's basket of goods and services, everything from groceries to haircuts to appliances. And the 3.5 percent increase reinforces just how big a problem inflation is for President Biden as he seeks reelection. In a recent Fox News poll the economy topped the list of voter concerns beating out election integrity, the border, health care, abortion, a whopping 61 percent said the issue was extremely important another 28 percent said very important. That's 89 percent.

While inflation has fallen from the highs of the mid 2022 era, many families aren't feeling the relief. Food prices are still up 21 percent compared with when Biden took office in January of 2021. And just in the last year alone car insurance up 22 percent, eldercare up 14 percent, motor vehicle repair up 12 percent, baby formula and formula 10 percent, outpatient hospital services 8 percent, rent of primary residence up close to 6 percent. Anxious consumers trying to outpace prices are now buying up gold, which often happens in times of economic turmoil.

Costco began selling $2,000 gold bars in September. In the fourth quarter sold more than $100 million worth. And now Wells Fargo estimates that Costco was selling up to 200 million worth of gold and silver each month. Yet my next guest says that for many people inflation feels higher than it actually is. He put forth this thesis in the New York Times essay under the headline, "Why are voters so upset? Consider the Snickers bar.

Joining me now is Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. He's also the author of several books, including "The Truth About Inflation."

Mr. Donovan, thanks for being here. What does the price of a Snickers bar say about our perception of inflation?

PAUL DONOVAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT: So here's the thing, when economists think about inflation, we use this huge basket of goods, including things that we don't buy, very often, you don't buy a car every year, even the average American doesn't buy a car every year. But you've got to somehow weight that in the basket. So you have a mix of things we buy very frequently, and things we don't buy very often at all. But the problem is as consumers when we think about inflation, we remember the price of something we buy very frequently. So that may be your Walmart bill, that could be a subway fare, and of course it could be Snickers bars, the best-selling chocolate bar in the United States.

Every time you go to the vending machine, if the price has gone up, every single time you buy a Snickers bar, you're being reminded the price has gone up and that fact sticks in your mind and you forget about the fact that the television you bought last year was $50 cheaper.

[09:20:05]

SMERCONISH: OK. You wrote this in the essay in "The Times," you say, "Why aren't voters recognizing the decline in the inflation rate? Because voters are humans and humans don't think about inflation rationally." To which I then asked, but what is irrational about worrying about food costs, if in fact, they are rising, like what you say that the flat screen might be coming down but if food is still increasing, we got a problem.

DONOVAN: Well, actually, now, in about a third of cities in the United States, food prices are falling. So not the inflation rate coming down, the price is lower than it was a year ago. So you are starting to see what economists call deflation. So, price levels coming down in about a third of American cities today. But what we've got is an issue here that you're actually because the United States is a relatively advanced economy, relatively high income economy, food is not actually a very important part of the household budget, lots of other things are more important. And you spend typically, somewhere between 10 percent and 20 percent, depending on your income bracket on food.

So, it's not actually a huge part of your everyday spend other things, your mortgage, your health insurance, that kind of thing, that's where you're putting your money, but you focus on the thing that you're buying on a regular basis. And that's why it's perhaps a little bit irrational to put so much emphasis on there, not saying ignore food prices, but they're not actually the dominant part of your monthly outgoings.

SMERCONISH: The essay that you published in "The Times" did not address housing, you did just reference your mortgage rate. But your housing costs are going up as well. And the insurance cost is something that I don't think gets enough attention or discussion. I guess what I'm saying is I get your point, you know, I'm buying that Snickers far too often, frankly, but what can I look to say, there's light at the end of the tunnel, there's promise because as in my setup, we were fair, we presented a broad stroke of everything, it's all going up.

DONOVAN: Well, it's not the fact that actually all things going up. So, we've had falling prices for durable goods, you know, that's furniture and cars and electronics, they've been falling for over a year and a half, absolutely coming down. And I'm afraid to say the way that you guys over in the United States calculate housing costs and inflation is just downright weird. So the largest part of inflation in the United States is a price called owners' equivalent rent, it's a call for the calculation. And it's a price absolutely no human being has ever, ever paid in their life.

It's completely made up number. And this is a big distortion. If the United States calculated inflation the same way that Europe calculates inflation, U.S. inflation today would be 2.4 percent. European inflation is also 2.4 percent. So the United States has got exactly the same inflation rate as Europe has at the moment. But because you calculate housing in a really weird way, which nobody actually pays, that's distorting your overall number.

Insurance is a big deal. But you mentioned motor insurance in the introduction, there's a lot of confusion about what motor insurance is, consumer price inflation says motor insurance is rising 22 percent a year. But if you look at the personal consumer expenditure deflator, another way of measuring inflation, and in fact, the one that the Federal Reserve looks at, it's well below 10 percent inflation, still very high, but nothing like the CPI number.

Honestly, to be to be frank, America doesn't spend enough money on its statistical agencies, and you've got poor quality statistics. So we're not entirely sure what's going on a lot of the time.

SMERCONISH: So I value everything that you've told me. Here in the States, we've got an expression, it was coined by James Carville, it's the economy, stupid. And the Snickers bar is probably going to be of more value. And this was your premise in terms of people's perception than all the other factors that you just cited.

Thank you, Mr. Donovan. I appreciate your time very much.

DONOVAN: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Via social media, Catherine (ph), what are we -- what are we hearing? What are we seeing? From the world of X, Americans overall aren't very intelligent. It is clearly not all inflation but corporate greed. Period. Well, Jackguard you're getting to the cause, but not, you know, the price. The fact that the prices are going up, I think is indisputable. And as to whether we will look beyond that factor and trying to assess the cost and where it comes from, how much does the situation in Ukraine have to do with grain and food prices that were -- I don't know, I think that gets lost in translation. And we tend -- here's my view, we tend to give too much credit and too much blame to whoever's in the Oval Office at any particular time for factor that they probably can't control. I'm not giving Biden a pass on the food prices, I'm just saying I think sometimes we err one way or the other too much.

[09:25:10]

I want to remind you, go to my website at smerconish.com. Answer today's poll question. Cannot wait to see how this turns out. Can Trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

Up ahead, America's schools were hobbled by the pandemic. And long after schools reopened, one problem has persisted and it's across all demographics. Absenteeism. During the last academic year, more than a quarter of public school students, more than a quarter considered chronically absent, missing 10 percent or more of their days in school. What's causing that?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:18]

SMERCONISH: Is this the new normal? The pandemic may be over, but American public schools are still struggling with chronic absenteeism, which is typically defined as missing about 18 days of school for any reason.

Nationally, an estimated 26 percent of public school students were considered chronically absent last year. That number surged from 15 percent in 2018 to 28 percent in 2021, this according to data from the American Enterprise Institute.

Eighteen missed days a year? It sounds insanely high, at least to me. It caused me to dig in the attic for a quick comparison.

I found three of my old report cards. One was from the seventh grade. I missed a total of three days for the year. One was from ninth grade. I missed one day. By the way, that was a suspension. That wasn't even sickness. And midway through my senior year, I didn't miss any days.

Educational experts, they say chronic absenteeism is a leading factor in the nation's slow recovery from pandemic learning losses since students can't learn if they're not in school. And the problem it cuts across all demographics, district size, income, race.

For example, the richest school districts saw chronic absenteeism rates nearly double from 10 percent before the pandemic to 19 percent in 2022 and 2023. The poorest districts, which already faced higher rates of student absenteeism, saw an alarming jump from 19 to 32 percent since the pandemic.

The New York Times says, "The trends suggest that something fundamental has shifted in American childhood and the culture of school, in ways that may be long lasting. What was once a deeply ingrained habit, wake up, catch the bus, report to class, is now something more tenuous."

Joining me now is Nat Malkus, senior fellow and deputy director of Education Policy at the American Enterprise Institute. Dr. Malkus, this is your data. So, what's the cause?

NAT MALKUS, SENIOR FELLOW, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: You know, there's not just one cause, that's the thing. There's a lot of things going on here. There's -- some of this is sickness. I'm sure. Some of this is transportation difficulties, the need to work, other poverty related factors.

But the real cause is the change that happened over the pandemic. I mean, this jumped about 90 percent for everyone sort of across the board. And so, it's something that changed broadly over the pandemic. In my mind, a lot of this is sort of the culture of expectations, the behaviors, the routines that we were used to, when the question came up, hey, I -- can I not go to school today?

SMERCONISH: I'll bet it back in the day, you heard reference to my absences, parents would send their kids to schools when maybe they should have kept them home, you know, because they had a flu or flu symptoms or a cold. Maybe that's a large part of this explanation that now parents are erring on the side of keeping the kids home from school when they're showing any symptoms.

MALKUS: You know, I think that's part of this. Look, over COVID, we got a lot of very strong messages, public health messages, which in the context of COVID made a lot of sense. If your children are not feeling well, keep them home for the health of everyone else.

And we never saw sort of a right sizing, a pushback, a pivot on that when COVID wasn't a pronounced problem. And then perhaps we should move back to the kind of patterns of responses to mild sicknesses that are probably appropriate.

Look, in England their chief medical officer sent a letter to all the schools and to the public saying, you know, if your kid is mildly sick -- you know, mildly, send them to school because school attendance is important.

SMERCONISH: I'm really worried about -- I mean, I'm on a crusade to shine a spotlight on the way in which we become so disconnected as a society which is a contributing factor to political polarization. And I'm worried about our youth and their mental health struggles.

They are missing socialization like, OK, the three Rs. I get it. But they're -- if they're not in class, if a quarter of them are chronically not in school, it's one less opportunity to mix and mingle. MALKUS: I think that's right. Look, I just want to go on the record. I love schools. I think schools are great places. But part of that greatness is the connectedness of a community and of all the students, and consistent attendance is sort of the basic building blocks of that. We have some measures of what has gone wrong with students over the pandemic.

[09:35:00]

We know that learning loss is a big hit. We know that chronic absenteeism -- we don't have great measures of mental health, of feelings of connectedness. But I'm pretty certain that those things have taken a hit. And the way back is cultural wide is a culture change where we come back ready to learn, ready to participate, ready to engage. And I think that is vital for the health of these very basic institutions for children.

SMERCONISH: How do you make it to the next grade? I thought if you missed X days a year, you know, you didn't pass.

MALKUS: There's a lot of rules on the books and there's rules in schools, there's rules out of schools, even to when we refer families to the district attorney's office because, you know, they missed too much school.

The enforcement of a lot of these rules is mixed and is probably much less than it was pre-pandemic. And of course, there's much more need for enforcement because we have so many folks who are being absent at higher rates. I don't actually think -- yes? I don't think punishing --

SMERCONISH: I was going to say --

MALKUS: -- is the way out of this, but I do think that some enforcement is going to be necessary to turn the tide.

SMERCONISH: Stick with me. And let's -- let's together -- I'll read aloud a social media reaction. This comes, I think, from my live chat pre-show. What do we have?

Come on, Michael, what was the -- what was the suspension for?

I've admitted this before, mooning. I was sent home in the ninth grade for mooning in gym class. What do you make of that, Dr. Malkus?

MALKUS: You know, I haven't done the research on mooning in recent years, but I'll try and update that and see what I can find out for you.

SMERCONISH: All right. I was going to -- I was going to make one other point to you, which is I'll bet that there's this belief that, hey, the kids cannot be at school because after all, they can do it online. But online is not a substitute for all of the social interaction that you and I both agree is missing. Quick response from you?

MALKUS: Yes. I mean, we got a lot of exposure to these new tech tools. And look, at least as far as learning loss, I don't think they have a great track record. And I think as far as kids relating to other kids, the track record is probably even worse. So, I don't think that's a supplement.

SMERCONISH: Nice job. Thank you. Alarming data. Appreciate it.

MALKUS: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Still to come, the abortion issue, firing up the Democratic base. Biden's polling pulling closer to Trump nationally and in a few swing states. And his opponent is the defendant in a criminal trial starting on Monday. So, after months of struggle, does President Biden finally have the big mo?

And please don't forget to vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Can't wait to see the response. Can Trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

While you're there, sign up for the free daily newsletter. It's worthy. You'll love it. You'll get the work of editorial cartoonists like Jack Ohman.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:42:37]

SMERCONISH: We're 205 days from the conclusion of the election. So, who has got the big mo? That's the phrase Poppy Bush famously used about having momentum as a candidate.

On one hand, several indicators have recently turned to President Biden's advantage including the polling, abortion, No Labels, jobs, and a Trump trial. The national polling has gotten better for Biden. A New York Times-Siena College poll out just this morning from this past week puts Trump ahead of Biden by only one point, 46-45, too close to call. In February, that same poll had Trump with a five-point lead.

That echoes the aggregate from Real Clear Politics. Also, a virtual tie, Trump at 45.5, Biden at 45.3. But, of course, we don't elect presidents based on popular vote. If we did President Hillary Clinton would be finishing up her second term.

So, what about the battleground states? In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina, the Real Clear Politics average has Trump up by anywhere from 2.8 to 4.5. But in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, it's neck and neck. In Wisconsin, Trump's margin is a negligible 0.6 percent. In Pennsylvania, Biden is -- quote, unquote -- "up by 0.1 percent."

And, of course, there was the abortion bombshell. This week in Arizona, the day after Trump delivered his statement on the issue saying it should be left to the states, one of those states threw a monkey wrench into his election. Arizona Supreme Court made a 4-2 decision that after the overturning of Roe, the state's standard had reverted to its 1864 law, which was never repealed, a law that dates from before Arizona was even a state, or women even had the right to vote, which bans abortion from the moment of conception, except when necessary to save the life of the mother.

It makes no exceptions for rape or incest. And that's huge for Biden and Democrats because as we've noted here and has been noted elsewhere, abortion rights are undefeated since the June 2022 SCOTUS decision that gave the power to the states.

Last week, we talked about how abortion would be on the ballot in Florida. So, could both of these states, Florida and Arizona, be in play?

Also, in Trumps favor -- pardon me. In Biden's favor, the fact that No Labels couldn't land a candidate and ended its hope for a third-party run, which the data suggested would have pulled more from Biden than from Trump.

[09:45:07]

Another factor not to be overlooked, the economy added 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing economists' predictions. Unemployment ticked down to 3.8 percent. And Biden announced a revised student loan forgiveness plan in the swing state of Wisconsin where he needs to reach young voters, who like others, are dissatisfied with what's taking place vis-a-vis Israel and Gaza.

Unless we forget, Trump goes on trial Monday in the hush-money case. The first time a former president has ever faced criminal prosecution. Remember, among those who say they would vote for Trump, 13 percent say they would not vote for him if he's convicted of a felony by a jury before the election. Maybe we're about to find out if they really mean it.

Add all that up and it seems that the big mo is on Biden's side. But hang on, there are qualifiers, namely inflation, the border, the RFK factor. Inflation is heading in the wrong direction for an incumbent. Most American say, President Biden has made the cost of living and illegal immigration, two of the major issues in this year's general election, worse than they were before.

According to a survey from the Associated Press and NORC published on Friday, 58 percent say Biden's approach to the cost of living, either hurt a little or hurt a lot. In contrast, just 18 percent say the president had helped ease pressure with his policies.

Another majority, 56 percent said the same of the president's handling of immigration and border security. With only 16 percent saying Biden helped that issue. On top of that, there's geopolitical worries, the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, and inflation concerns causing the Dow to fall 475 points on Friday.

There's also the RFK Jr. factor. After CNN's "KFILE" reported that one of RFK's campaign workers said out loud that his goal was to get rid of Biden, and that Biden's loss was her number one priority she was quickly fired.

But RFK Jr. does pull more from Biden than from Trump when he's included in the polls. Those Real Clear Politics numbers that I showed you before, Trump 45.5, Biden 45.3, a tie. When you add in the option of RFK Jr., it's Trump 41 percent, Biden 35.7, Kennedy 11.7. That's Trump by five.

So, who really has the big mo? Political veteran Joe Klein wrote a Substack post this week titled Biden Zeitgeist Watch, the Arrows Are Up, the Reality Not So Much. He listed a number of concerns for Democrats, including not just inflation, but also the GOP business establishment returning to the Trump fold, the party listening too much to -- quote -- its "out-of-touch activists."

And he said, "There is the passive nature of the Biden administration itself. Why is Merrick Garland still attorney general, even though there are clear indications that the president is furious with him? Why is the southern border still open? Why do Democrats take comfort in the fact that they've raised a ginormous amount of money, even though money doesn't mean all that much at the presidential level?

Don't buy the blip in the polls and don't expect that abortion is enough to overcome an awful lot of negative factors in the coming months. Biden is in trouble. He needs to talk to people outside his inner circle and then take action" -- even if -- "if he's going to have a chance in November."

So, who really has the advantage? Unless you can see around corners, nobody knows. The only thing for certain is that there are people whose names we don't even know and events that we could never foresee that will continue to unfold and determine the outcome of this election.

Still to come, more of your best and worst social media comments. And don't forget to vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Can Trump get a fair trial in Manhattan?

While you're there, sign up for the free daily newsletter. You're going to find exclusive content from cartoonists, like two-time Pulitzer Prize winner Steve Breen.

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[09:53:51]

SMERCONISH: So, that's the result so far, wow, of today's poll question. Oh, come on gang. It's a closer call than an 85-15 margin as to whether Trump can get a fair trial in Manhattan with yes votes. I think some among us want to, you know, dispense with the trial and just get right to the sentencing.

Social media. What came in this week, Catherine? What do we have?

I do not see how he can get a fair trial. Not a fan but there's just no way. Everyone has an opinion. I just don't think people can leave their bias out, says Kelly.

I hope he gets a fair trial. Can I tell you what I'm bummed about? I'm bummed about the lack of cameras in the courtroom. And this irony is not lost on me. O.J. died this week. And the O.J. cameras in the courtroom were the greatest setback to the cause that I carry the torch for of having cameras in all courtroom. Because people think, well, that's what it's going to do. But, you know, in that case the lawyers were not reigned in by the judge.

That's not typical of what takes place and we ought to be able to see for ourselves especially when it's a former president, now his party's standard bearer, in a reelection campaign. What a disgrace that we can't watch this trial. What else came in? I'm sorry. I got longwinded.

[09:55:01]

Why should Trump get preferential treatment? Regular Joes get tried in the jurisdiction of the crime so should he.

Nobody's arguing for his -- for his preferential treatment. But, you know, there are changes of venue that are -- actually, Robert, let me say this to you. If Trump were being tried right now in Mississippi -- or where else is the margin huge for Trump? West Virginia. Would you be saying, well, that's fine? You know, why -- why preferential treatment?

One more if I've got time. I think that I do.

Parents stopped working from the office so kids stopped studying at school. Mirroring parents justify it.

This is really, I think, a huge issue. I mean, ours are beyond that age now but I'm worried. I'm worried not only that this takes hold and school becomes less important for the basics of learning. But also, as I said earlier, for a lack of the social skills which they're going to need to be successful in life. So, I'm glad to put that on your radar screen today. And yes, the mingle project moves on. OK. See you next week.

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