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Smerconish

"I'm Not Leaving; Political Purgatory; Costas: "This Is The Emperor's New Clothes"; GOP Convention Begins Monday In Milwaukee; Markets Bet On The 2024 Presidential Election Results. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired July 13, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:00:16]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LEONARDO DICAPRIO, HOLLYWOOD ACTOR: I'm not leaving. I'm not leaving. I'm not leaving. The show goes on. This is my home. They're going to need a wrecking ball to take me out here. They going

to need to stand in the National Guard, SWAT team because I ain't going nowhere.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Today it just feels appropriate, right. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

Last night in Detroit, President Biden was greeted by a crowd chanting, don't you quit. He gave a fiery speech about staying in the race and finishing the job.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOE BIDEN, USA PRESIDENT: Folks, you probably notice, there's a lot of speculations. What's Joe Biden going to do? Is you're going to stay in the race? You're going to drop out. Where's mine? I am running and we're going to win.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMERCONISH: But hang on. The polling is showing that his candidacy is in danger of turning blue states purple. Per today's New York Times, quote, "As President Biden insists he'll stay in the presidential race, Democrats are growing increasingly alarmed that his presence on the ticket is transforming the political map turning light blue states into contested battlegrounds. Down-ballot Democrats, local elected officials and party strategists say Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, all of which Mr. Biden won comfortably in 2020 could be in play in November after his miserable debate performance last month."

And this is just one of several recent developments potentially harmful to his candidacy. Some major democratic donors have told the largest pro Biden super PAC that roughly 90 million in pledged donations is now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket. At least 19 House members have called on him to drop out as well as 24 former lawmakers as House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries withholds his endorsement. As the pressure mounts the President is scheduled to meet today virtually with multiple groups of congressional Democrats. And on at least three occasions since the debate, the White House has had to revise accounts of the President's medical care and the President has refused to undergo additional testing.

The New York Times was first to report that the Biden campaign is now polling, to see how Kamala Harris fares against Donald Trump. It's believed to be the first time since the debate that the Biden team has sought to test her viability. Polls show that she has only a 29% favourability, and his is only a 34% favourability.

We don't know what the latest Harris numbers will show. But we do have lots of data on Biden standing, none of it encouraging for an incumbent. It's misleading to characterize the race as a dead heat. Even if polls show it within the margin of error, or as NPR PBS Marist, found Biden actually leading by 2, 50/48. Remember, we don't elect by a national vote if we did, Hillary Clinton would be finishing her second term right now. We rely on the Electoral College hence, it's all about the six battleground states Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and according to Real Clear Politics right now, Trump leads in each.

Here's another way to think about it. If the national polling is deadlocked it's actually indicative of a potential Trump blowout. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the Electoral College 306 to 232. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% won the Electoral College 306 to 232. It means that Biden probably needs to be ahead in the national vote by at least 4% in order to win in the Electoral College.

At this point in 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump by between nine and 11 points, but as I said, then went on to win by 4.5. Moreover, most Democrats, Democrats say they want him to drop out 67% of Americans say he should end his candidacy, including 56% of Democrats.

Yesterday on radio, I spoke with David Wasserman, the senior editor and elections analyst with The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. This week, it was The Cook Political Report that moved six states away from Joe Biden and toward the Donald Trump. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada have gone from toss up to lean Republican. Minnesota New Hampshire and Nebraska second congressional district have gone from likely Democratic to lean democratic.

[09:05:15]

David Wasserman told me where so many voters have presorted themselves into likeminded communities, the resulting echo chambers preclude big shifts that we might have seen in elections past from a candidate meltdown, or say, a felony conviction. As a result, we don't see big shifts in the race. He also said that Biden has lost so many black, Latino and young voters that if the election were held next week, his path would be very slim. Like David Wasserman, famed democratic political guru, Doug Sosnik,

has just opined that President Biden's electoral path has all but vanished. Quote, "Trump is now the clear front runner to be the next President of the United States." And David Axelrod said this week that the odds of a Trump landslide are greater than a Biden narrow victory.

Something else to consider. The President speaks as if the race is just beginning. It's actually closer to the end. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent. One of two agreed upon debates is over. And not even a Trump felony conviction has moved his needle downward. The first votes will be cast in the states of South Dakota and Minnesota on September 20. That's just 69 days from now.

Presidential elections can no longer be thought of as revolving around Election Day. Election Day is instead the final opportunity to vote. So although political races have volatility, if the Biden team is being truthful in taking the latest data to the president, there'll be telling him sir, in all likelihood, there's no path to victory.

I want to know what you think. Go to my website, it's merconish.com and answer today's poll question, Will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convinced President Biden that he must step aside. Joining me now is Bob Costas, 29 time Emmy winner back on February 24. After President Biden chose not to do a pre Super Bowl interview, Bob appeared on this program and set a lot of people's hair on fire by saying this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BOB COSTAS, SPORTS COMMENTATOR: This is Emperor's New Clothes stuff. People aren't familiar with the fairy tale, the emperor was naked. No one wants to say it. A little child was able to say it. This is common sense stuff. Of course, there are people who say, and this is the card they've been playing for a long time. Yes, we kind of know it's true. But don't say that. That will only help Donald Trump.

Well, how feckless are the Democrats? If they realize that this guy could possibly lose to Trump, then get somebody else out there? You don't go into the Super Bowl with a quarterback who has a dead arm, or the seventh game of the World Series of people are more comfortable with me talking in sports terms. You don't do it. This is just so obvious.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMERCONISH: Bob Costas, were you seeing something then that others were not seeing? Or is it that you were willing to say it when others were not?

COSTAS: Yes, I think it's the latter. And it only became more overwhelmingly obvious with the debate performance. And for those who say the definition of cognitive dissonance here is oh, we're not going to toss him overboard because of one bad night. That one atrocious night was simply writ large, what could be seen for years and years that he is in serious decline? Nobody should be president when they're 85, or 86, including the ghost of Abraham Lincoln. But this guy is clearly in decline at this point.

And part of the job, leaving aside whether he can do it for the next four years is winning the job. And as you just laid out, that seems to be nearly impossible at this point. When they say and many Democrats are still saying this, they lay out all the reasons why Donald Trump is loathsome and a threat to democracy and existential threat. And then they say that's why we have to get behind Joe Biden.

No, that's exactly why Joe Biden must be ushered out. As I said, at that time, it was so obvious that at the Abbey Philip, last year on CNN, Biden had a chance to be seen by history as a statesman and a patriot. He spared the nation, a second Trump term, he could have gone out in a gracious fashion. Now, we can no longer indulge his delusions. It's a shame. It's a kind of a Shakespearean tragedy, perhaps with Him as King Lear and his wife as Lady Macbeth. But that's all secondary now.

Precedent doesn't matter. Oh, he was the -- he is the incumbent. He won all the votes in the primary because he had no opposition. These are desperate times, and they call for measures that are appropriate to the circumstances.

SMERCONISH: Two weeks before the debate was the Hollywood fundraiser. The Washington Post sort of went inside. I want to put something on the screen. Here's what they found about what took place at the fundraiser.

Some attendees said it was even worse at the smaller receptions before Biden took the stage greeting hundreds of supporters for grip and grin photos. The President stumbled over small talk and seemed frail. According to six attendees, for the high level donors there who were meeting the 81 year old Biden for the first time several said they found his decline shocking. It makes me wonder if there hadn't been the debate performance. Bob, if the debate had taken place in September, as was initially intended with the Commission on Presidential Debates, I don't know that we'd be even having this conversation because all the people that that fundraiser, Clooney included, weren't speaking until the debate.

[09:10:40] COSTAS: Yes, and to me, and this is for the stick to sports crowd. This has been so overwhelmingly obvious for so long. You don't need a degree in public policy from Harvard to see it. And to say it if you're willing to say it any more than you need a degree from MIT to say two plus two is four. And it makes you wonder whether we've been gas lit by the Democrats, the Republicans major in gas lighting, everybody with Trump as their standard bearer, but this had to have been obvious to people surrounding the president and people who observed the president. Wouldn't it have been an act of patriotism, if that's not to overblown a word in this case, to lay that out before the American public?

You know, look, Trump is a very vulnerable candidate against Hillary Clinton who clearly was qualified but had some baggage and may have run a bad campaign. She was hamstrung a bit about going after the personal flaws to be kind of Donald Trump for reasons we need not list here. And here we have Joe Biden, who cannot say as any other candidate could say, let's roll the tape on all of Trump's unhinged rallies where he seems to be a blistering buffoon. Because then all the Republicans do is turn it around on all the gaps and missteps and times when Biden seems to be wandering around in a fog, in sports. If your opponent has an obvious vulnerability, you, you devise a strategy to exploit that vulnerability. Hey, this guy is wide open for a left hook. But wait a minute, the guy can't -- our guy can't throw a left hook. That's where we are.

SMERCONISH: Give me the 32nd response to those who are watching and saying, didn't you see him last night in Detroit, fiery and on top of his game, you would say what?

COSTAS: It doesn't change the basic calculus. It doesn't change it. You know, again, it's a shame. Biden's a decent man. We don't want to see it play out this way. We want to be respectful if we can. But this has the feeling of somebody handing a participation trophy to a kid at a soccer match just because he didn't fall down. The bar is set so low that people applauded when he doesn't remind us yet again, of how at this point, he is not qualified to campaign and clearly is not qualified to finish four more years as President.

SMERCONISH: Thank you, Bob Costas. Appreciate your being here as always. Now the question, what would it take for the president to step down?

Joining me is Bradley Tusk. He's a venture capitalist, founder of Tusk Strategies. His resume includes serving as the Deputy Governor of Illinois, as well as campaign manager for Michael Bloomberg. He was also communications director for Senator Chuck Schumer. He wrote recently for Substack, under the headline how Biden thinks.

You said that all politicians are insecure and then put on the screen a part of what Bradley wrote, quote, "Any successful argument means convincing him that there's more upside for him and dropping out, not that he should do what's right, because it's right." You have a three prong approach. The first deals with family considerations explain.

BRADLEY TUSK, VENTURE CAPITALIST/POLITICAL STRATEGIES: Yeah, well, look, Hunter Biden was convicted of a federal crime. And I think most people would say, and I would certainly agree that had Joe Biden not been president, he wouldn't have ever been prosecuted for that. Joe Biden, as president has the ability to pardon his son. But if he's the candidate, it's way too controversial. And given the position he's already in, it would just be completely untenable. If he's not the candidate, and he's just finishing up his term, it's completely doable.

And so a son of his who has struggled his entire life, all of a sudden, now facing as many as 18 months in prison, you can prevent that from happening. You can save him. You can save your family from all of this pain. And once you're not a candidate, it's easy to do.

SMERCONISH: And the second scenario that you present or argument is one of -- hey, even if you win, here's what it looks like. Explain. TUSK: Yeah, I mean, think about what the next four years would be like. There will be calls every single day to invoke the 25th amendment and replace him. He would be almost on a both literal and conceptual Deathwatch pretty much constantly. Should the Republicans take the House or Senate and both of those are highly possible. They will be investigating him kind Recently now that the media has basically taken the position that Biden is not equipped unfit to be president. They will keep going back to that over and over again. So yeah, he might get to be the president. But if it is so miserable, and if all he's doing is on being under siege constantly, basically, if he doesn't like the way it feels right now, that's the best is going to get.

[09:15:21]

SMERCONISH: Bradley his legacy up until now would have been a legacy of someone who defeated Donald Trump pleasing half the country immensely, and a series of accomplishments while in office. Wwhat's the legacy look like now going forward?

TUSK: Yeah, I mean, look. Unfortunately, even though he has accomplished a lot over the course of his career, if he is seen as the guy who refused to leave when it was clear that he needed to, and it was clear that the American people wanted him to, and he brought back Donald Trump as a result, especially one as Bob said, Trump is beatable by other potential Democratic candidates. That becomes his legacy, which is the guy who is too selfish to step aside and leave.

And so why diminish 50 plus years of a great career of public service for a campaign that's incredibly hard to succeed at this moment.

SMERCONISH: And he might say, but if I step aside, and if it's the vice president, who then emerges, maybe because of my endorsement, and she loses, I'm going to get blamed for the loss.

TUSK: It's not as bad. Yes, sure. At this point, because it's already mid-July, it's different than if he had a year ago said, Hey, I said I was going to be a transitional president. I was. I got us through COVID. Past a lot of great stuff took out Trump was trying to pass the torch, yes, then he would have no responsibility at all for the outcome either way.

But still, at this point, the person who loses the race is the person who loses the race. If he's the nominee, that very well might be him. If it's Kamala Harris, or somebody else sure that he could still be blamed, but it's very different.

SMERCONISH: Bradley Tusk, thanks for the analysis. Appreciated your substack piece.

TUSK: Yeah, grab me, Michael. Appreciate it.

SMERCONISH: What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media? Many of you are I'm sure I'll read some aloud during the course of the program. I don't see them in advance. Stop it. Your bias is showing. The man has the kind of perseverance we need in a leader, especially in the face of the decades long slide into Christo fascism. The one thing your relentless negative bias is doing -- is helping him demonstrate that quality. Oh, so I'm actually helping him.

I'm not here to help him. And I'm not here to hurt him. I'm here to call balls and strikes. I just have to say to you, as I've said to others, who interpret my analysis as being intended to help Donald Trump that you need to consider whether you're the one helping Donald Trump. And by the way, I'm not here to help her hurt Donald Trump, by keeping your head in the sand and avoiding this conversation, because perhaps you will wake up on November 6 and say, Oh, my God, how did it happen? And maybe we should have done something about it when we still have the opportunity. Think about that.

I want to know what all of you think. Go to my @smerconish.com Please answer today's polling question. Will polling data, showing his narrow path to victory, convince President Biden that he needs to step aside. I'm asking that question because in that press conference on Thursday night, when he was asked what he step aside, he said, If they come to me and they say, you can't win, you have no path. In that circumstance, he'd consider it.

So okay. I showed you the data at the outset of the program. Is that going to convince him? That's what I'm asking in the poll question.

Still to come Monday, the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. We still don't know Trump's VP. What can we expect to hear of the GOP platform for America? I want to tell you why I believe this is no longer Reagan's Grand Old Party.

Don't forget to sign up for the free daily newsletter, it's smerconish.com when you're voting. Scott Stantis of the Dallas Morning News in Chicago Tribune sketch this for us.

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[09:22:57]

SMERCONISH: It's a party to which Ronald Reagan might not have been invited. Monday, Republicans will gather in Milwaukee for the national convention that will nominate Donald Trump as their candidate. Of course, a mainstay of conventions for nearly 200 years has been the drafting and acceptance of the party platform, one part plan, one part wish list for a party and their standard bearer.

In a recent national affairs piece why party platforms matter? Tevi Troy, a Senior Fellow of the Bipartisan Policy Center writes, "The platform serves an important purpose in an age of sound bites and selective reporting. They give people a clearer view of where the party stand on specific issues and how they prioritize our nation's challenges."

So what's in those plans were here's some quick bullet points from a party platform. Neither Hispanics nor any other group should be barred from education or employment opportunities because English is not their first language. There's a need to invest in mass transit for cities. America should prioritize working in close concert with our NATO partners to ensure a strong confident Alliance. One more federal budget deficits and rising U.S. debt should be curtailed.

It sounds centrist, forward looking, might even say progressive with a touch of fiscal conservatism. That is not today's Democratic platform. That's the GOP platform from 1980. The AV convention that nominated Ronald Reagan. Compare that to this year's GOP platform.

On immigration, this one calls for construction of a wall and millions to be deported to combat the immigration invasion. On abortion, it would give states the right to pass laws including restricting abortion access. And when it comes to transportation, this party platform is eager to cancel the electric vehicle mandate.

This year, the platform has been downplayed, keeping Trump as the focal point. For instance, per the New York Times a Nebraska business woman named Christine Vail was notified by local Republican officials that she had been selected to be one of the state's representatives on the platform committee. "She protested that there must be some mistake while deeply enamored of Mr. Trump, Ms. Vail was neither a GOP activist nor a policy nerd. I'm more of a Trumplican than a true Republican," she recalled saying.

[09:25:12]

According to Ms. Vail, the reply was, "Well, that's exactly what we want." Meanwhile, GOP critics are speculating that the real GOP platform is a different written policy statement spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, the so called mandate for leadership, the conservative promise or Project 2025. It's a 900 page collection of policy proposals that advocate the increase of presidential power, the privatization of the bureaucracy, for instance, and the abolishing of the Department of Education.

With more attention being paid to it in recent weeks, President Trump has repeatedly distanced himself from the project saying some of the things they're saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. But a new review from CNN shows that at least "140 of the people listed as authors, editors and contributors to the mandate for leadership work in the Trump administration." Rollingstone is also found that at least seven members of the RNC who helped develop the 2024 GOP platform have also got ties to Project 2025. So even if Trump had nothing to do with Project 2025, the likelihood is, his administration will be populated with those who wrote it.

Joining me now is Republican Florida Congressman Byron Donalds, a Trump campaign surrogate congressman. Good to see you. To what extent were you vetted to be Donald Trump's running mate?

REP. BYRON DONALDS, (R) FLORIDA/TRUMP CAMPAIGN SURROGATE: Well, listen. That's a great opening question. But I'm not going to get into that. Donald Trump's been going over all the people on that list. He's going to make a decision very shortly. I'm excited for what he's going to do. And then we're going to support the vice presidential nominee along with President Trump, and we're going to go win back the White House this November.

SMERCONISH: To some extent did you fill out paperwork? DONALDS: I'm not going to get into it. I've been very clear that that entire process, I'm not going to answer because I want to respect the privacy that the Trump campaign is trying to keep around the selection for a vice presidential nominee. The thing that's much more important is obviously Donald Trump's massive leading in the polls, and the fact that his policy positions are focused on the American people first, second or third. The palace intrigue about vice presidential nominees. That's all going to be resolved in a couple of days.

SMERCONISH: All right. Let's get into some other palace intrigue. Is the Trump campaign hoping that Joe Biden President Biden holds on as his party standard bearer got beat up in the in the debate, but you don't really want him out because perhaps vice president Kamala Harris, or any other replacement would be stronger against Donald Trump than Biden is running in all that polling data that I showed at the outset of the program?

DONALDS: Well, to be frank with you, it doesn't matter if it's Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or anybody else, because the radical Democrat agenda remains the same. It's their agenda that at least a massive inflation. It's their agenda that has massively opened up our borders, giving the drug cartels operational control over the southern border. It's the Democrat agenda. That is Joe Biden's agenda, Kamala Harris's agenda that has led to a weak and feckless foreign policy.

So our view is very clear. It doesn't matter who they actually nominate. Their agenda remains the same. It's been destructive of the men and men and women of our country, and that Donald Trump has the policy prescriptions to make America great again.

SMERCONISH: Radical agenda, those are words that are being used to describe. You heard the setup for your introduction Project 2025. My question for Congressman Byron Donalds is this, which is a better indication of what's to come if there is another Trump administration, the GOP platform or Project 2025. And why?

DONALDS: Well, first, I will tell you, it's definitely the RNC GOP platform. And then it's also the policies that Donald Trump talks about on the campaign trail. Look, you got to understand. In Washington, there are think tanks everywhere. There are staffers who move in and out of administration's off Capitol Hill into these think tanks. Everybody has ideas on Capitol Hill. But that doesn't mean that that's what Donald Trump is focused on.

He is focused on getting our economy roaring again, getting inflation under control, actually expanding our energy infrastructure, having us be energy dominant here in the United States. And of course, having a much more peaceful world having these conflicts around the globe come to an end. That's his focus. Anybody can have their ideas. But we all know that, you know, Donald Trump, he makes up his own mind. He'll listen to a lot of ideas, but at the end of the day, what he's going to do is going to be focused on what's best for the American people.

SMERCONISH: I mean, I totally get that in the abstract, but you heard the data point, 140 people who played a role in the publication of Project 2025 you know, coming out of and potentially going back into the Trump administration. It's hard to believe that this won't show up in policy if in fact he's elected again.

[09:30:09]

DONALDS: But let me push back and let me explain it differently. I have staff members that work for me on Capitol Hill and in my district here in southwest Florida. They have ideas. That doesn't mean I always agree with them. At the end of the day, it is my job to make a decision on what policies we're going to pursue out of my congressional office.

The same thing for President Trump. He has people who may come and work in the administration, but that doesn't mean all of their ideas are going to get an opportunity to be acted on, to be moved and signed into law. That's not how this works.

And so, yes, you might have people who might come in but Donald Trump is focused on the American people, which is why I said earlier, the GOP platform I am telling you right now, that's where you need to look towards in terms of what a Donald Trump agenda looks like as the 47th president. And if people don't want to go and read through that platform, just go to any Trump rally across America, listen to the president talk on these issues. He's very clear about what his focus is.

SMERCONISH: Congressman Donalds, thank you for being here. Appreciate it.

DONALDS: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: What are you saying via social media? From the world of Twitter, now known as X.

Michael, whey have you -- I guess, why have you -- never spent five minutes on your program suggesting that Trump should step aside because he is a profound liar and convicted criminal. Why your rabid obsession -- a little spell check here, Garth -- with Trump dropping out. Jeez.

The issue -- you might not like this, Garth Rose. OK. I can't control the news cycle. I'm sorry to share with you that President Biden had a disastrous debate that has caused within Democratic ranks, and I'm not a Democrat, conversation, consideration of him no longer being the party standard bearer. And I'm to ignore that?

Trump? I've spoken of every one of his trials and tribulations painstakingly. Do you know a guy named Elie Honig? Yes, of course, you do because he's a household name because of how many times I've hosted him. And so, too have so many others.

And what has been the sole focus of all of my repartee with Elie? Donald Trump's legal troubles. So, please don't give me the, you don't talk about Trump and his trials. This is the issue of the day. OK? And next week I'm sure we'll be talking about the Republican National Convention and the fate of President Joe Biden.

I want to remind everybody, go to my Web site at Smerconish.com. Answer today's poll question. Will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convince President Biden that he must step aside?

Up ahead, are you trying to decipher what's going to happen in the presidential race? Are you overwhelmed by polls? May be underwhelmed? What if I told you that it might be more accurate to see where the betting money is going. I'll explain that in just a moment.

Plus, more of your social media comments. I'm on all the social media platforms like -- you know, you want to find me, take your best shot. Say something nice. Nobody ever seems to do that. But you can find me easily and I'd love to hear from you. So, you know, TikTok, Facebook, Twitter, my Web site. Have your say.

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[09:37:32]

SMERCONISH: More social media reaction so far to this week's program. William, we all want to see the Smerconish strategy to replace Joe and how does it work? Tell us.

Oh, OK. Here you go. Put that camera back on me. The Brits got an entire election done within the span of six weeks. Democrats have five weeks on the clock. And if Joe Biden, President Biden were to say that he's standing down I'm in favor of there being a competitive process among the usual suspects so long as they are interested in seeking the nomination.

Meaning you put Vice President Kamala Harris into the mix. And you have Governor Gavin Newsom and Governor Josh Shapiro. I don't want to leave anybody off the list. Senator Amy Klobuchar, Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The Democrats have a strong bench and let them duke it out for the next two weeks. Can -- for the next five weeks.

Can you imagine the we would be enthralled? The level of interest it would be Super Bowl like in the process. And whomever emerges from that, a series of townhalls appealing to delegates doing forums on, you know, CNN and everywhere else in the cable world.

But whomever would emerge from that process would be so fortified they -- he or she would have the wind at their back, unlike, unlike a -- you know, a canonization of the vice president, if that's what it comes to. So, a competitive process, let them fight and see whoever emerges from it, and let the Democratic delegates then make that determination. I think it would completely recast this race.

I also believe that whomever would come out of that process would be in the lead in all the polling data that I shared with you over former President Trump. And then every one of you who has written some negative missive to me about how you're trying to help Trump you have to eat crow because all of a sudden by the end of the summer Donald Trump would be in second position to whomever this fresh face might be.

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to say that. I went over my time, didn't I? OK. Sorry, Catherine. Up ahead, the election -- the election always being compared to a horse race. But what if I told you the most accurate source of what's going to happen isn't the polls and it's not the pundits. No, it's the betting markets, all right, where people are allowed to bet on the elections. An expert is about to make that case.

Don't forget vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convince President Biden that he must step aside? And while you're there, sign up for my free and daily newsletter.

[09:40:01]

Check this out. Steve Breen drew that for us this week. That is hysterical. Note the calendar date.

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SMERCONISH: Follow the money, not the pundits. Polls can try to forecast the 2024 presidential election outcome. But what are the betting markets in politics telling us?

Web sites like Betfair, PredictIt, and Polymarket let their users bet on several contests in the 2024 election cycle, the three markets differentiate based on commissions, fees, and which consumers are allowed to participate. For example, PredictIt is for U.S. consumers only. Polymarket is a crypto based outlet for non-U.S. consumers. Betfair is more traditional betting market for consumers in Europe and Australia.

Customers using PredictIt are limited to $850 per person for each market. While Betfair and Polymarket currently have customers betting a combined total of more than $200 million in the general election. Right now, PredictIt shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a 39 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee compared to President Biden's 50 percent likelihood.

[09:45:04]

In the general election against former President Trump, Betfair says that Biden has a 26 percent chance of beating Trump while Harris has about a 39 percent chance. The other two markets predict former President Trump has about a 60 percent chance of beating either candidate.

Here to break down the numbers is Professor Harry Crane who teaches statistics at Rutgers University, earned a PhD in statistics from the University of Chicago. He's also a co-founder of Researchers One. That's a decentralized research platform. Dr. Crane, you think that the betting markets are more reliable, more accurate in terms of their predictive value than the polls. How come?

HARRY CRANE, STATISTICS PROFESSOR, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY: Well, this is something that I've been studying. I've been studying these markets since around the 2016 election, every midterm and presidential cycles since then. And that's just what the data shows, is that if you wanted a single best predictor one source of information to know what's going on in the elections it's the prediction markets. And if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense because any given piece of information that you might have, such as a poll, or an aggregator, or a news, or a pundit's opinion, all of that is being combined by the participants in these markets who have a financial incentive to get it right and to make money off of this.

SMERCONISH: What's the takeaway from the nomination status, obviously, on the Democratic side of the aisle?

CRANE: Well, what's interesting -- I mean, these markets are going up and down as the news changes over the past couple of weeks. As of right now, I mean, Biden gained a little bit in the past couple of days since his NATO speech. He's up slightly over 50 percent now. So, he's a slight favorite, but it's essentially a coin toss between -- it's essentially a coin toss between Biden or any other candidate.

SMERCONISH: And relative to who wins in November, regardless of who the candidate might be, Republican or Democrat, what are you seeing?

CRANE: Well, right now, Trump has about a 60 to 62 percent chance of winning in these markets. If you then consider what specific nominee he does seem to fare better against Biden and Harris than any other unnamed nominee.

But I think the thing that I take away from that, even with its all the chaos and argument and debate on the Democratic side, if you're on the Republican side, Trump's still -- with a 60 percent chance, yes, he is the favorite, but I think if you're on the Republican side, you'd want that number to be a lot higher. So, they shouldn't just spike the ball just yet.

SMERCONISH: Is this a fair way to characterize the data that other, meaning someone other than Biden and Harris, is least likely to win the Democratic nomination, but would be more likely to beat Donald Trump if they were to secure the nomination?

CRANE: Yes, that's -- that's pretty much what the markets are saying right now. If you -- if you consider any other candidate getting the nomination, depending which market you look at, their chance of winning would be anywhere from 50 to 70 percent as of right now.

SMERCONISH: One other question if I may, a lot of -- a lot of the money that we're talking about because apart from PredictIt, which is unique, we're talking really about foreign investment. Somebody said on my radio program on SiriusXM, why would we rely on a foreign perspective even if it is a betting market? You would say what to that?

CRANE: Well, first -- one thing I would say is that the regulations in the U.S. need to change so that we get more markets in the U.S. It's -- it is crazy that we're limited to $800 and we're relying on the information from overseas. But the answer to that is that there are professional bettors. The biggest bettors, the best, the smartest, biggest syndicates in the world who make millions, tens of millions of dollars doing this. So, they are incentivized. They have access to all the same information that we do, all the data, the polling data, the news. And so, it's really the markets at work. And just because they're located overseas doesn't mean that they're not getting access to the same information and the same expertise that might come from the American side.

SMERCONISH: Yes, or as Tom Friedman would say, the world is flat. Dr. Crane, that's fascinating. Thank you for your analysis.

CRANE: Thanks a lot, Michael.

SMERCONISH: I don't want that last point to be lost. OK. What was the point? The point is that the other category, someone other than Biden, other than Harris, less likely to get the nomination. But if that mystery figure were to get the nomination, they have a greater likelihood of winning the presidency, greater than Biden and greater than Harris. Think about that while you're crafting your next negative tweet toward me.

Coming up, the final results of today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convince President Biden that he must step aside? Subscribe to the newsletter when you're there.

[09:50:00]

How come? Well, you'll see cartoons from legends. How about this from Rob Rogers?

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SMERCONISH: There's the result so far, Smerconish.com. Will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convince President Biden he's got to step aside? Thirty-one thousand and change, and 82 percent are saying, no, not going to change his mind.

[09:55:03]

Quickly, social media reaction to today's program. What do we have? There is this. You are a partisan MAGA media personality.

OK. Come on. Give me an effing break. Let me ask you something. Put that camera on me.

Is David Axelrod a partisan media MAGA personality? Is George Clooney? Is James Carville? Is George Stephanopoulos -- are all of the people who are looking at the data and saying, Democrats have a problem, if these patterns hold, and they are likely to, all a bunch of partisan hacks? I'm not even in their party. I'm just repeating what they're offering and using data. So, don't blame me on November 6 when you wake up, OK?

I will see you next week.

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