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Smerconish
How Long Will The Honeymoon Last?; Why Did Trump Bring Up Harris Race At Black Journalism Convention; Pluses And Minuses Of VP Finalists Shapiro, Kelly; The Growing Threat Of Nuclear War. Aired 9- 10a
Aired August 03, 2024 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
AMARA WALKER, CNN ANCHOR: Mobiles, my little six-year-old, I mean, she's just fascinated by what this woman can do. Incredible stuff. Amanda. Amanda Davis, thank you.
And thanks for being with us this morning. You're back tomorrow.
DANNY FREEMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, you bet.
WALKER: That sounds good. Thank you for joining us this morning. Smerconish starts now.
MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN HOST: How long will the honeymoon last? I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia. Vice President Kamala Harris has been on a roll. Democrats are enthused. The money is rolling in, a record $310 million in the month of July alone. And poll show Harris outpacing President Biden's previous numbers. She's now running even with Donald Trump.
Yesterday she officially secured enough delegates to lock up the Democratic presidential nomination. The launch has been flawless but choreographed and careful to avoid unscripted moments. But there are intangibles on the horizon.
Last Wednesday, a Hamas leader was executed in Tehran, presumably by Israel. In response to the attack of October 7. Iran Supreme Leader has vowed revenge and the world awaits the next move. This on top of an expectation that Lebanon will respond after Israel killed that Hezbollah leader on Tuesday in Beirut. No wonder the New York Times Thomas Friedman just wrote that, "If the tit-for-tat conflict between Israel and Iran and Iran's proxies escalates, President Biden and Vice President Harris by extension might face the fateful decision of whether the U.S. goes to war with Iran alongside Israel.
Yesterday brought a disappointing jobs report, which fueled fears that the economy is weakening. Unemployment climbed to 4.3% and on Friday, the Dow closed down more than 600 points. Within the next 48 hours, the Vice President will announce her most important campaign decision, her running mate. The tool then barnstormed the battleground states starting Tuesday in Pennsylvania. Many pundits and the betting markets think that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is the favorite. That Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker released a video yesterday touting Harris and Shapiro only fueled perception that it's a done deal.
Late Friday, Trump announced on Truth Social that he will no longer participate in an ABC debate but would agree to debate Harris on September for an event moderated by Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha McCallum at a to-be-determined location in Pennsylvania. He's asking for a live audience. It's unclear if Harris has agreed to those terms.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's week was defined by an appearance that he made before the National Association of Black Journalists where he volunteered that he's not sure whether Vice President Harris is Indian or black. It wasn't a hot mic. He chose to go there. He said quote, "She was Indian all the way and then all of a sudden she made a turn and she became a black person." Why would he have said that?
I have two theories. First, distraction. Harris's rollout has gone so well that he wanted to take control of the news cycle, even if he had to do so with a negative story. Second, because he was narrowcasting in the black community last week before Trump appeared at the NABJ Joe D. A Harrisburg Pennsylvania CBS network anchor went to a central Pennsylvania barbershop seeking some candid conversation among the revelations that some of the black men that he interviewed did not regard Harris as black.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is Kamala going to make you a little more likely or less likely to vote Democrat?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hold on. Wait. Is Kamala black, yes or no?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm going to let her speak on it. But to me, no.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, is Kamala black, yes or no?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I share that same view.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is Kamala blac, yes or no?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I heard she was. I heard she's half black and half Asian.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SMERCONISH: When I played that audio on my SiriusXM radio program on Thursday, many callers who self-identified as African American were quick to tell me that those men were the exception, not the rule. Some describe them as low-information voters no different than you'd find among whites. Trump is outperforming other Republican presidential candidates for the black vote. Recent polling by the New York Times and Siena shows him capturing 23% of the black vote, compare that to the last GOP nominee Mitt Romney who in 2012 received only 6% of the black vote against Barack Obama. I know it's a lot to comprehend, but we have to prose to help us sorted it all out.
Joining me now is David Urban, CNN, senior political commentator and GOP strategist who advised the Trump campaigns of 2016 and 2020, and Tara Setmayer co-founder and CEO of the Seneca Project resident scholar at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Tara Setmayer, why did Donald Trump go to NABJ and say what he said?
[09:05:15]
TARA SETMAYER, CO-FOUNDER AND CEO, THE SENECA PROJECT: Well, why he went and what he said I think are two different answers. He went because he has seen that polling into his thinks that he has a chance to peel off some black voters. We saw the polling one when President Biden was in, in the race. And if there were -- there was an issue. They saw an opening. So he figured, okay, I'll go in front of this audience and get the opportunity to speak to them and perhaps appeals more to black voters.
Why he said, what he said, I think comes from a very fringe aspect of whoever's -- whoever is advising him thinking that somehow questioning Kamala Harris's ethnicity and her race would resonate with black voters because of what you just showed, I agree that those are outliers. Kamala Harris has always identified as a black woman. She pledged the black sorority. She went to a historically black college. Anyone questioning her blackness at this point, I think is an asinine way to go in this election, given all of the issues that are on the table, particularly our democracy. And that that Trump would take this route, I think it just shows that there's a certain unsophisticated when it comes to what vote what issues that black voters actually care about.
I think this is a pretty low-brow on his part. And the blowback, I think, reflects that and you've seen that even from Republicans.
SMERCONISH: David, was there any method to his madness? I felt like my suburban neighbors were recoiling, as he was saying those words, but maybe we weren't the intended audience.
DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: And Michael's looks so your points well taken about the narrow casting, although I think it was, it was it was a missed opportunity. I think that tactic may not have worked that well. Look, if I was Donald Trump, I would have come out there and said, well, when the question was posed, it was not, you know, he had to wait 35, 40 minutes. He's probably irritated about that there was a delay in the programming. The questioner came out pretty hostile. If I was Trump, I would have said, Listen, guys, we're not going to agree on many things, maybe not even a 10 things. But let me just tell you here, I showed up here this morning, or this afternoon to take these questions that appear before you my opponent didn't.
And let me just tell you a little bit about a few things that I did while President. Anybody in here attend HBCU? Show me your hands, right? I worked in a bipartisan fashion to provide historic funding for HBCUs. Where's Van Jones? Is he in the crowd? I worked with Van on the first step act to help release African American men from jail. How about did anybody collect the unemployment situation, the Afro- American community when I was president? Let's see show hands. I'm going to do that again. I think he had an -- he had, he has a record to run on, which is
pretty strong in the African community. And I wish you to talk about it and put that front and center as opposed to Kamala Harris's race, or gender or ethnicity, or what she what she identifies as. She has a record. We need to start talking about her record. Every day we don't is a missed opportunity.
SMERCONISH: I could spend the whole hour talking only about this, but I want to cover more ground. Tara, back to you. If Kamala Harris selects Josh Shapiro, as anticipated by many yours truly included. Will she be selecting her strongest running mate?
SETMAYER: Yes. One quick thing before I say that, out of the heart, so does the mouth speak. Donald Trump has been a bigot and has an issue with people of race his entire career. So that's why he didn't go into that audience. He felt that he was in a hostile environment once they got aggressive questioning --
SMERCONISH: Okay. As I said, I could do the whole hour.
SETMAYER: But that's why he went there. So I just wanted to make that very clear.
URBAN: Yes or no, we'll agree to disagree. We'll agree to disagree, Tara.
SETMAYER: Now, that's fine. His record shows that starting from when he got sued for housing discrimination in the 70s.
URBAN: And the first step back. Come on?
SETMAYER: Talking about the vice president, so starting with the Vice President's pick, listen, the -- can we also often say in politics that, you know, your campaign is a reflection of how you will govern. And, you know, the biggest decision she can make at this point, because people haven't really seen her as vice president. She's still defining herself.
Her choice for Vice President will be her first major decision. And I have no problem with Josh Shapiro. I think that would be an excellent pick. I also think Senator Mark Kelly would be an excellent pick as well. They both have pros and cons here. It'll be interesting to see if the decision here was not necessarily about the border issue or a state that you need, whether it was about governing and whether they can get along, because that's important, too. We've seen in the past that the vice presidential pick hasn't really been from a state that you quote, need, if you look at the past most recent vice presidential picks, but in this instance, I think those factors are really important. You need Pennsylvania and you also need --
SMERCONISH: But who's the strongest? Tell who's the strongest.
[09:10:02]
SETMAYER: All right. You know I could argue both sides. In my opinion, I think that Senator Kelly is a little stronger because immigration is a pain point for the Democrats and for Harris. And because he comes from a border state because of his pedigree, military astronaut, the story of his wife's incredible recovery from a shooting. What that represents, I think, gives Kamala Harris an opening into a constituency that may not have been open to listening to her before. She still ended up with the findings stage of (inaudible).
Josh Shapiro, though, is also he's young. He's an excellent surrogate and comes from an important state, and he's a moderate. And I think that's important too, because we know the attacks and David was already started them. But she's --
SMERCONISH: David Urban, I know you're close. I know you're close to Josh, right? Obviously, you're a Republican.
URBAN: Absolutely.
SMERCONISH: Everybody knows your credentials. Is Shapiro the strongest she could pick? Be objective.
URBAN: So Josh Shapiro is the strong he's the -- you know, Michael, they always say and when people select an athlete in the draft, we pick the best athlete available in the draft. Josh Shapiro is the best political athlete in this draft class, period, full stop. Gifted order, great guy moderate. He is he's definitely the strongest pick.
However, comma, that being said, you talked about this early in your show, and I've heard you speak about it before. The Democratic Party has an anti-Semitism problem. They have a huge problem with anti- Semitism in their progressive wing. And query does Josh Shapiro's pick, does that cost them the state of Michigan? I don't know.
I don't know what their internal numbers look like. Look, I think Mark Kelly, you know, Michael, I went to West Point military guy served in combat and Mike, Mark Kelly, I agree with Tara on this is a very strong pick from that perspective.
SMERCONISH: Okay. So David, David, I sense --
URBAN: If you're going to beat the numbers -- Michael just real -- real quickly though.
SMERCONISH: Yes. I sense that you don't know what today's poll question is? Catherine can we put it up on the screen and let the two of them each answer it. I'll read it aloud. Hit me with a poll question of the day right now. Here we go. Come on. Chop chop.
Which carries more political weight: Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists? Quick answer. Urban, you go first. Which carries more political weight.
URBAN: I think the baggage of the anti semitism the Democratic Party is so severe, I think that'll hurt him. Unfortunately, for Josh, because he's a gifted political athlete, and again, a good public servant.
SMERCONISH: Tara, your quick answer.
SETMAYER: I think he's appealed to centrist is why he's at the top of the considerations here and that the -- I mean, I obviously think that the issue with what's going on with Israel is an issue for Democrats, but they will come home eventually looking at what's on the other side of that.
SMERCONISH: Every time, I hear --
URBAN: It's not an issue Tara. It's anti-Semitism.
SMERCONISH: David, David, every time -- David, every time I hear a criticism of them, I say to myself, that's advantageous. The very things that the progressives want to say are liabilities for this guy, I say are what make him help her and make the ticket more electable? I don't have any more time. I wish that I did.
URBAN: Michael, I don't disagree. I don't disagree with you.
SMERCONISH: I thank you both.
URBAN: I don't disagree with you, Michael. I don't disagree with you. I just think that you're going to have a tough time at the convention.
SETMAYER: You can't ignore the anti-Semitism on the right either. Come on. Donald Trump is running (inaudible).
SMERCONISH: Why don't we just -- we'll just put the two of you next time. We'll do it for show.
URBAN: Be honest, Tara.
SETMAYER: He said that.
SMERCONISH: Thank you guys. Thank you guys. Are we doing social media, Catherine? Hit me with what you got. Come on.
Harris will be forced to speak unscripted. The nation will see that she's about as sharp as a bowling ball. The Harris bump will disappear.
Okay, but Alex, here's the thing. Game this out. If your point is -- obviously, your point is she has been choreographed and scripted and we really haven't seen her yet. You're not going to see her for a while. If I were advising her, I'd be telling her to do exactly what she's doing which is adoring crowds, friendly audiences know one-on- one interviews, right? Nothing hard-hitting. Nothing substantive. Just let this define you.
And now she's going to Barnstorm seven different states with a running mate that's going to look like good TV. And then it's going to be the Democratic National Convention. And by the time she emerges from this process like the kids will be back in school. So I get the frustration on the part of Republicans and I hear them saying this on Fox with some truth. You know that she's in bubble wrap so far.
But if you were strategizing on her behalf, you'd be telling her to do the exact same thing. All right. Thank you, gang.
I'm waiting for my direction. All right. I'll just tell you what it is go vote@smerconish.com on today's poll question and know this, up ahead. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is the favorite to be named Vice President Harris's running mate despite some opposition from progressives displeased with his positions on school vouchers and pro- Palestinian protesters and that's why we're asking this as the poll question today. Which carries more political weight: Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists? While you're there voting. Sign up for the free and daily newsletter. Come on. Look at that. Steve Breen drew that cartoon for us this week.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:1956:]
SMERCONISH: So how could her vice presidential choice not be Governor Joe Shapiro? Vice President Kamala Harris will attend her first campaign rally Tuesday with her newly announced VP here in Philadelphia, Josh Shapiro said to be attending. That rally will kick off a seven battleground state tour for the new ticket.
[09:20:14]
The betting markets have the 51 year old Shapiro as the odds on favorite. You can understand why based on ideology and geography Shapiro balances the Democratic ticket as a more moderate candidate. The popular governor could also help Harris win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral College votes, which are crucial for her path to 270.
Many organizations from the far left protesting Shapiro's nomination based on his support for Israel, his critics build a website called No Genocide, Josh promoting an online petition and circulated negative articles about him online. Funny because as I said in the last block, what they criticize him for is, to me his greatest strength. I think that will help Senator Harris and the ticket whether the issue is school vouchers or willingness to condemn pro-Palestinian protesters, in those instances where their speech and actions crossed the line of anti-Semitism.
Joining me now is Jonathan Chait political columnist for New York Magazine, his new piece, What's So Great About Josh Shapiro, and why he might be worth adding to the ticket, despite the real risks. Jonathan, nice to see you. You say you see weaknesses, but also strengths at a totally different level from any other candidates. What are you referring to?
JONATHAN CHAIT, POLITICAL COLUMNIST, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: Well, his popularity is really off the charts extraordinary in a polarized era, when your favourability is plus 29, which is what I think a Fox News poll showed when he outperformed Biden, in Pennsylvania by I think 14 points. I think that shows an ability to reach beyond the Democratic base. That's hard to find in this day and age. So I think that's an incredibly valuable trait to bring to the ticket. I wrote that Harris has a lot of good options. But I think Shapiro's performance is really is really unusual. It's really extraordinary.
SMERCONISH: What -- why -- what explains the flak from the left? I'm going to put up on the screen a headline from the hill just as an example. I don't know that there's some you know, progressive sound alarm as Shapiro, VP stock. Is there really much difference between Josh Shapiro and the others said to be under consideration?
CHAIT: I mean, there is. I think, in a way, these are two sides of the same coin, the way you get super popular in a purple state is by being, you know, identifiably more moderate than other Democrats, right? That's a signal that that that gets listened to by voters who aren't partisan Democrats that this guy is more moderate than most Democrats. But that same signal is heard by people on the left. And that's that explains why they don't like him.
So I think that's, you know, that's part of the price you pay. If you want to get a very popular moderate, that person is probably going to be somewhat disliked by the most left wing members of your coalition.
SMERCONISH: Michael Moore, among others, says, Well, wait a minute, we can be throwing away Michigan, I put on the screen part of what he wrote. He also with regard to Shapiro cruelly compared peaceful college students to the KKK, because they were calling for an end to the slaughter in Gaza, by the way I interpret what he said differently. Actions like these, like Arab American vote for Harris.
Yeah, go ahead and speak to that. What would you say to Michael Moore, who says, Wait a minute, Democrats could lose Michigan, if it Shapiro.
CHAIT: So we didn't compare them to the Klu Klux Klan. He made an analogy he was he was talking about violations of campus policies and saying like, if we're going to allow these protesters to violate campus policies and just take, you know, common ground on the campus for their own use against the rules, what would we say if the Ku Klux Klan was doing that? So that's not saying they're as bad as the Ku Klux Klan?
Do I think it would cost Michigan? No. I think there are probably some voters in Michigan who would be displeased and would not vote for Harris on that basis, but I think it would probably attract a much greater number. And the number of voters that you pull from the other side is twice as valuable as is the number up mobilize, because simply losing the vote is half as valuable as is taking the vote from the other party.
SMERCONISH: Having observed Shapiro, what would you look for in a Shapiro-J.D. Vance debate? Quick answer.
CHAIT: Giant Mountain Dew. I don't know. I think Shapiro is kind of wholeness that plays well with J.D. Vance's kind of hyper intellectual style.
SMERCONISH: I mean, they're both very good on their feet, and very intelligent. I think it'd be a hell of the debate. I'd love to see it. Jonathan Chait, thank you so much. We appreciate your being here. I want people to read what you have authored. It's well done. CHAIT: Thank you.
SMERCONISH: Here's some social media reaction that has come in during the course of the program. What do we have? Appeal to centrists? He's a liberal nutjob like she is. What do you consider centrist? Obamacare? COVID lockdowns?
I consider a school vouchers, you know, and his openness to school choice to be more centrist. I consider the way that he looked at and not all pro-Palestinian protesters. But he drew a very sharp contrast and was willing to call out when it delved into the ranks of anti- Semitism. And I also think that when he spoke of Colombia's shortcomings in not reining in what was going on in Colombia, and protecting the rights not only of Jewish students, but of students who just wanted to get to class, that he sounded the right note, and it was not a far left note.
And so look, I'm not here carrying his water or carrying her water or carrying Trump's water. And I'm just here telling you the way I see it. And I think that the Democratic ticket needs to be anchored somewhere other than the far left, and he can help get that done.
By the way Mark Kelly could as well, especially by drawing a contrast relative to the border. Wow. Stuff you couldn't make up right. Have you voted yet? Go to my website@smerconish.com.
I know what I'm trying to ask. I hope I haven't made it too complicated. Which carries more political weight: Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists? Go vote. I'll give you some results at the end of the hour. Still to come. What's in a name, and how you pronounce it or mispronounce it?
The new Democratic presidential candidate is running into that one a lot. I sympathize, both as someone whose name often causes others to stumble. And as someone who often messes up other people's names, even though I've got a teleprompter.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:31:25]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAYA RUDOLPH, ACTRESS AND COMEDIAN: He gathered himself and said, "Kamala, let's do this." And I said, "It's Kamala." And he said, "I will never ever get that right."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: What's in a name? When I was young and my parents made a rare dinner reservation, we were always the Walter's party of four. That's my dad's first name and it was so much easier than spelling Smerconish to somebody at the other end of the phone even though my surname is pretty phonetic. But I know a little bit about mispronunciation because it so often happened to me, which is why I'm attentive to getting it right for others. And still I screw up. Anybody remember George Papadopoulos? I struggled with that guy for weeks.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: The guilty plea of former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos of lying to federal authorities.
I know. I'm a dope. I'm a dope. Listen, put that camera back on me. Look at this. I can't say it. Papadopoulos, Papadopoulos, Papadopoulos. And if you watch my Facebook live this morning, you know that I was fearful of my ability to not be able to say it correctly and I blew it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: Often the more that I tried to get it right, I end up getting it wrong even when the notes provided to me by our booker have a phonetic key. I still fumbling and mispronounce names unintentionally. But I'm sympathetic to benign mistakes, which brings me to Vice President Kamala Harris. Yes. I have mispronounced her name too, never intentionally. And I'm in good company.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Along with several city and state leaders. But as Kamala said, we're -- we're all closely monitoring the storms.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: I have a mnemonic device in my head now. I try to imagine the word comma or I envision a comma followed by la, as in comma-la. Many people get her name wrong. It has become such a back-and-forth online that outlets like the "Boston Globe" have been putting out stories teaching voters how to correctly pronounce her name. And it's also not the first time she has faced this issue during election season.
In 2016, her Senate campaign team released this witty video teaching adults how to correctly say it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE CHILD: It's not Cam-el-uh.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE CHILD: It's not Kuh-mahl-uh.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE CHILD: It's not Karmel-uh.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE CHILD: It's Kamala.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE CHILD: Kamala Harris.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: During her 2020 run, many adversaries mispronounced her name despite her being a well-known senator from California by that time. Then there are those who seem to be making the mistake intentionally.
Last month, the "Washington Post" actually tallied all of the speakers at the Republican National Convention who mispronounced her name. It was nearly half of those who mentioned her.
Donald Trump continues to mispronounce it and explained his reasoning to a crowd last Friday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If radical, liberal Kamala Harris gets in -- and, by the way, there are numerous ways of saying her name. They were explaining to me you can say Kamala. You can say Kamala.
I said, don't worry about it. It doesn't matter what I say. I couldn't care less. If I mispronounced it or not, I couldn't care less.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: It's hard not to see some of this as a deliberate effort to portray her as another in much the same way that President Obama's middle name, Hussein, was often stressed by some of his opponents amidst birtherism.
It has even caused some contention on our own network among two friends when CNN political commentator Bakari Sellers called out former Trump campaign senior advisor David Urban, a guest on today's program, for doing the same.
[09:35:06]
David's mispronunciation was accidental as proven by the fact that he got it right two out of three times.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR/REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I don't want to attack Kamala Harris as an individual. Let's look at the policies.
BAKARI SELLERS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: That's not her name. That's not her name.
URBAN: (INAUDIBLE) debate about policy.
SELLERS: Stop, stop, stop, stop, stop. David, you're --
URBAN: OK. Kamala. How do I -- how do I pronounce it, Bakari?
SELLERS: That's my point exactly. That's my -- URBAN: Well, tell me buddy.
SELLERS: No, no, no, no. That's my point exactly. The fact is -- the fact is her name is Kamala.
URBAN: You know me. And shame on you, Bakari, because you know me better than that. So, shame on you.
SELLERS: My point to you, David, is don't you believe that women in this country are equally offended? That there are women in this country who have different names, who get mispronounced often, and all I'm trying to do is level set and have a level of respect for Kamala Harris, the same level of respect for Kamala Harris that you and I have for each other, David. That's my only point.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SMERCONISH: Let's all try and say her name correctly. I for one I'm willing to give you a mulligan if you get it wrong, but if it becomes your habit then you deserve to be called out for political opportunism or worse.
Still to come, your social media reaction. And did your fears of nuclear war fade with the Cold War? Well, suddenly the possibility is looming large again. Putin's army in Ukraine are training on nuclear weapons. There's worry that Iran could resort to them in its escalation with Israel. What happens when a nuclear missile hits? I've got the expert who can tell us all.
Plus, you still have time to vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Josh Shapiro's biggest asset to Kamala Harris seems to be to balance her progressive reputation. But does this outweigh that he might alienate his base? Which carries more political weight, Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists?
While you're there voting sign up for my free and worthy daily newsletter at Smerconish.com. Jack Ohman sketched this this week.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:41:33]
SMERCONISH: Moscow training its troops in Ukraine to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield. This week, Putin vowed to match the US's move to deploy missiles in Germany in equal measure.
On top of that, Thomas Friedman of The New York Times writes that, "If the current tit-for-tat conflict between Israel and Iran and Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, escalates into a full- scale war, one that Israel could not fight for very long alone, President Biden could face the most fateful decision of his presidency, whether to go to war with Iran alongside Israel, and take out Tehran's nuclear program."
Why is it then that in the six debates of the 2024 cycle so far including the Trump-Biden debate, not a single direct question was asked about nuclear weapons? Well, now comes Annie Jacobsen. She certainly wants us to know.
She's a Pulitzer Prize finalist, writer and producer of the hit Amazon Prime show "Jack Ryan," and now author of the new "New York Times" bestselling book, "Nuclear War: A Scenario." Annie, great to see you. Why the ticking clock scenario?
ANNIE JACOBSEN, AUTHOR, "NUCLEAR WAR: A SCENARIO": Michael, nuclear war is as dangerous to civilization, that means all of us, as the incoming asteroid was to the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. We're talking about civilization ending event where a full-scale nuclear exchange to happen.
I explained it to readers in the book using that ticking clock scenario because you learn right away that nuclear war unfolds in seconds and minutes, not hours and days and weeks like you might think.
SMERCONISH: It could all end in 72 minutes, right?
JACOBSEN: That's exactly right. That's -- you know, I was doing an interview -- to report the book I spoke to presidential advisors, nuclear commanders, nuclear weapons designers. And when I was speaking to General Kehler, who was the former commander of Stratcom, those -- they're the -- he's the steward of the nuclear weapons should nuclear war -- is in direct communication with the president.
General Kehler said to me when I asked him how terrible it would be an exchange with Russia. He said, Annie, the world could end in the next couple of hours.
SMERCONISH: Annie, I can't ride it out in my backyard bunker if I had one. True?
JACOBSEN: Absolutely true. I mean, I'm going to quote Nikita Khrushchev here, the former Soviet premier, when he said to JFK, after a nuclear war the survivors would envy the dead.
SMERCONISH: How does artificial intelligence make this problem even worse?
JACOBSEN: Great question. You know, nuclear command and control systems are surprisingly analog at least that's what I learned in my reporting. Meaning, because these systems were created back in the days before computers had the hold on weapons systems like they do now everything was analog based, and they have continued that way specifically so that they can't be hacked.
I'll give you a quick example. Our sub-launched ballistic missiles, they guide to their targets by star sighting.
[09:45:00]
A little panel opens up in the tip of the warhead and guides itself by the stars. That's ancient technology. Of course, there are other systems in play but that gives you an idea of how important it is that the nuclear systems cannot be hacked by something like A.I.
SMERCONISH: One of the -- one of the many things -- I'm reaching for your book, but one of the many things that I learned from you is once these missiles are launched, they can't be pulled back.
JACOBSEN: It's -- you know, reporting this book was my learning, one, astonishing fact after the next. And I think readers get that same sense because -- you're absolutely right. An ICBM, an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is a strategic weapon that would carry a nuclear warhead. Not only can it get from one side of the world to the next in 30 minutes but, you're absolutely right, it cannot be redirected and it cannot be recalled. And so, the system in place is set to go once that missile launch happens, that's what I described in my scenario.
SMERCONISH: I only have about 60 seconds, but I want to read a paragraph from the book, "49 Minutes, 30 Seconds, Raven Rock Mountain Complex Pennsylvania." "Speaking over the Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellite constellation from inside Site R, the secretary of defense presents his for-the-good-of-humanity idea. That maybe there is no point in killing hundreds of millions of people across the world in Russia. That just because hundreds of millions of innocent Americans are about to die, maybe the other half of humanity, full of so many innocents, does not have to die. His suggestion gets dismissed without consideration."
Quick reaction from you.
JACOBSEN: This is mutual assured destruction. It's there as a threat but it is exactly what happens should nuclear war unfold. We are all mutually destroyed.
SMERCONISH: Annie, the book is great. It will -- it will scare you, but maybe we all need to be frightened. Amazing -- amazing that in this campaign, right, which I'm fixated on and so are -- my viewers are like no discussion of this. Maybe that changes now. Thank you, Annie.
JACOBSEN: I hope so. Thank you.
SMERCONISH: Still to come, your social media reaction. And don't forget to vote on today's poll question at Smerconish.com. Ready? Josh Shapiro's biggest asset to Harris is probably that he balances her far-left progressive reputation. But does this outweigh that he might alienate some of her base?
Ergo which carries more political weight, Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists?
When you're voting sign up for the free daily newsletter. Scott Stantis -- I love that. Scott Stantis drew that for us this week.
And here, I'm going to show you one more. Rob Rogers, check that out.
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SMERCONISH: OK. There's the voting so -- wow, pretty decisive, huh? Thirty thousand eight hundred and fifty-four have voted. Which carries more political weight Shapiro's potential struggles with young and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists? Eighty-one percent say it's the appeal. It's not often that I get to vote with the majority on my own poll questions, but I am in the majority today.
I said this earlier, every one of the criticisms that I hear like, oh, what about this? What about this? I say, what are you kidding me? That's going to balance, you know, where the vice president is, and the ticket needs balance.
Here's more of your social media reaction. If you didn't vote, you can keep voting. We'll leave it up.
It's not a honeymoon. It's a cover up. Harris hasn't done an unscripted event. She was selected, not elected. She has not answered a single question about Biden's mental acuity or what is her campaign platform. Why is she doing a 180 degree on issues since --
Kyle, legitimate questions to ask about our position on the issues in comparison to where she has been previously. And I sense frustration in your observations. I know where you're getting that from. And there's truth in it. I don't want to be dismissive of it.
But from a strategic standpoint, if you were managing her campaign, you would do the same thing because she's trying to define herself before Republicans can define her. And it's going to go on for a while because next week will be the rollout. And in two weeks, it's the Democratic National Convention.
But to your point, at some point, she's going to have to sit down and undergo vigorous questioning, you know, from a not-so-friendly source or voice. So, I hear you. But by then, there will be a very positive image that will have been baked in or so Democrats hope.
More social media reaction. What do we have? Good observation.
Shapiro will deliver Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris, but cause Michigan and Wisconsin to be won by Trump, says Brian.
Brian, you're not alone in that. And I put on the screen earlier the Michael Moore critique, because that's where he's coming from, I guess, as a Michigander. I don't think it's so simplistic, right? That, oh, you've got people -- this is the way -- they're Muslim and they're registered as Ds, but they're going to -- what stay home or vote for Donald Trump?
I hope that's not where we are that decisions are made on such strict religious or racial lines. And I do think that he'll -- he'll help Kamala Harris immensely in Pennsylvania.
[09:55:02]
More social media reaction. What do we have?
If Shapiro is as popular as you say, and an up-and-coming national figure, it would be in his best interest to decline the vice presidency. It would be a demotion.
Well, first of all, let me say this just in terms of fairness. He had a -- he had a very easy opponent. So, he was really able to run up the score because he was running against Doug Mastriano, who was much too extreme for Pennsylvania. So, that needs to be said.
He's got a 61 percent approval rating according to the latest data that I have seen. And I hear your point like sit it out for a cycle because we don't have a habit in this country of electing vice presidents, and you're saying, what about Biden? No, no, no. I mean incumbent vice presidents.
Look at the data. I think George Herbert Walker Bush was the last. But you know how they are at that level, right? They get a taste and they all think that they can serve in the big office. So, I understand it.
I'm off next week. I'll see you in two. Bye-bye.
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