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Smerconish

Is Harris' Ride Due To Trump's Self-Destruction?; What To Watch At The DNC In Chicago; What Accounts For The Gender Gap?; Harris, Trump Endorse Eliminating Taxes On Tips. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired August 17, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: To the real young prodigies, I see you. Thank you for joining me today. I'll see you back here next Saturday at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. "Smerconish" is up next.

[09:00:18]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Reversion to the mean, I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia. Think about it. One month ago today, Donald Trump looked invincible. He had a successful debate against President Biden, survived an assassination attempt, he was presiding over a unified and well-choreographed Republican convention in Wisconsin, and all the polls were in his favor.

A "New York Times" Siena poll found that Trump was leading Biden in five of six battleground states. James Carville earned the wrath of some in his party when he wrote in the "New York Times," "The jig is up, and the sooner Mr. Biden and Democratic leaders accept this, the better we need to move forward."

David Axelrod said that Biden was more likely to lose in a landslide than win at all. For three nights, Trump sat pensively, speaking little and watching the RNC when he spoke on the final night, victory seemed assured. And then came Kamala Harris, and Trump reverted to the mean, the real mean. He called the vice president a bum, said that she was evil, called her crazy, stupid, an incompetent socialist lunatic, and even questioned whether she was truly Black. And then he sat silently when an interviewer said that second gentleman, Doug Emhoff, was a quote unquote, "crappy Jew."

Trump added that Harris herself doesn't like Jewish people. He even claimed that Harris's huge crowds were actually an AI creation. And so what happened? Trump's numbers dropped, Harris's numbers rose. Today, she leads Trump in five of the six battleground states, and according to the cook New Political Report. Plus, just this morning, breaking news from the "New York Times," Harris has stormed into contention in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina according to their new poll.

They put Georgia in that mix, although Trump leads in that state, as David Frum observed, the Trump campaign has now entered the please shut up phase. Bill Galston, writing for The Wall Street Journal, said that Harris just had the three best weeks in political memory, Trump just had the three worst weeks in political memory. He wrote this, "Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has appeared out of sorts and off balance. Rather than confront Ms. Harris on substance, he has resorted to a familiar litany of personal insults. The result has been a dissonance between his campaign ads which are mostly issue oriented, and his public comments which dominate the news and distract from his case against Ms. Harris."

Similarly, Aaron Blake, writing in "The Washington Post," put it this way, "Recent days have featured a familiar sight, a coterie of Trump allies taking to broadcast outlets such as Fox News, seemingly to send a message to Trump in the apparent belief that this is how you get through to the cable news junkie former president. They've practically begged him to change it up. They sought to push him away from talk of crowd sizes and personal attacks on Harris, and toward policy."

But whether he refuses to or can't, that message is going unheeded by the audience of one. Trump has been unrepentant when asked about his conduct at Thursday's presser, he blamed Harris for the weaponization of the government against him, and he said, I'm entitled to personal attacks. It sure seems like there's a causal connection between Trump's reaction to Harris and her rise in the polls, but on my Sirius XM radio program this week, Mark Halperin offered a different take.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARK HALPERIN, AMRERICAL JOURNALIST: It's an interesting counterfactual, if he were doing much better and much more what every Republican I know and you know would like him to do. Stop talking about stop engaging in personal insults, stop talking about things that that are off the main subjects, and just, you know, talk about the Biden-Harris record on immigration, inflation, crime, and America's role the world.

Would he be doing much better? Everybody thinks so. But I'm not so sure, in part because of the press coverage, in part because she's doing quite well, and in part because there's just the natural dynamics of by not being Joe Biden, by not having the infirmity questions associated with her, she was going to be springing up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Halperin added that Trump was hit by a hurricane, whether he put up the protective covers or not, the house was still going to get blown away. Of course, whether the Harris hurricane last is another thing. Kamala Harris is not indestructible. She has served as an undistinguished, nearly invisible vice president. There appears no accomplishment she can point to for her most important responsibility, addressing the origin of the border crisis. [09:05:16]

Second, she picked a nice guy from Minnesota in Tim Walz, but he might turn out to have as many warts as JD Vance. And I don't mean the allegation of Stolen Valor. He spoke sloppily in that instance, but I don't think there's much there there. But the CNN KFILE report of his congressional campaign deceit over his DWI is a real and embarrassing issue. As usual, the cover up was worse than the crime.

It's still too soon to know how much she might regret not picking Josh Shapiro. And third thus far, Harris has had a free ride. She's not given any media interviews. Hasn't faced voter questioning. When asked recently, she said that she would give an interview by the end of the month.

She said that on August the eighth, no doubt she wants more time on the clock to prepare answers as to why she's flipped on health care, fracking, weed and the death penalty, to name just a few. Sooner or later, she's going to be held accountable and face pressure that she has thus far largely avoided. Just yesterday, her first substantive economic policy proposal, it received mixed reviews. Bernie Sanders loved it. He called her idea a strong progressive agenda, but "The Washington Post" said that her proposals were gimmicks.

CNN's analysis said that her plan could create more problems than it solves. You'd think that she enjoy another week of positive coverage amidst the DNC, which will feature three Democratic presidents, but with passions inflamed about Israel and Gaza, there is an air of unpredictability as to what will happen in Chicago. As I like to say, still to come, events we could never foresee and individuals whose names that today we don't even know.

It all brings me to today's poll question at smerconish.com between now and Election Day, who will make fewer big mistakes? Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Joining us now, James Carville, the Democratic strategist, David Axelrod, the former senior adviser to President Obama and CNN senior political commentator. I'll ask you both this question, David, beginning with you, was her ascendancy guaranteed? Or is it because of Trump's self-destructive behavior?

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Look, I think it's a combination of things. I think there's a tremendous sense of relief in the Democratic Party and in the country. Nobody wanted the choice between Biden and Trump. And you know, I think Nikki Haley was right. The first party that dispatched their octogenarian candidate was likely to profit from that.

But it's also true that Harris got out of this -- out of the gates very quickly, and she did -- you know, she consolidated the nomination very quickly. Her performance was very strong coming out of that. And so she added to the momentum.

And listen, I think she'll have a good week here. And then you hit the Labor Day, and then you have a debate one week after Labor Day. And if she does reasonably well in that debate, she could extend this momentum right into when, you know, the voting period begins. She's in a -- you know, she's in a good spot. But I -- listen, the fact that a month ago, things were the way they were.

And the way they are now should be assigned to people that these things are not to be taken for granted, and things can happen that can change the scenario. It's going to be a very close race. And one of the variables, Michael, is, can Trump get control of himself? I think he's freaked out because he thought he had this one, and now he doesn't necessarily have it one. And he's looking at a woman who's telegenic.

You know, he has the eye of a casting director. She's getting bigger crowds, and he's getting her poll numbers. All the things that he rates people by, she is doing well at right now. And I think he is -- he's come undone because of it.

SMERCONISH: James, what's your answer? How did we get where we are in the span of one month?

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, first of all, agreed everything David said, we could surprise no one. You know, Leon Spinks, I think, said of Mike Tyson, he hit you so hard and changes the way you taste. Trump don't taste the same now than he did this Sunday that Biden dropped out of the race. It just completely upended his world.

And as for her economic plan that she thinks that these companies are getting together, including in raising prices, and I think that's true, and the idiotic press say, well, it can hurt if you do this. For capitalism to work, it can't work where you have collusion, when airline calls another airline, or pharma school company called another pharmaceutical company, or insurance calls another insurance company, or they have people back channelling each other to see how much they can raise it.

[09:10:16]

And I think the American public is on to that. I think it's a legitimate thing, and I'm glad to see that she's going to investigate it. And I was -- if I was engaged in price collusion, I'd be worried right now.

SMERCONISH: David, for how much longer can she be inaccessible? I took note of the fact in my introduction, my opening, that on the eighth of August, she said, well, by the end of the month, I'm going to sit for an interview. And I went back and I looked at the calendar, I mean, it's inexcusable, right?

AXELROD: Yes, look, I -- if I were her team, I would want to be doing what she's been doing. I would want to be riding this wave and organizing through these big rallies and creating a sense of momentum and so on. I don't fault them for that. I do think that she's going to have to submit to these.

And I've said before, if I were her, I'd be doing gaggles. I'd be going to the back of the plane and going on the record and talking to reporters there just to make these interviews, and I'd be talking to local outlets in these battleground states just to make the -- these interviews less eventful, less unique, and she's set up. She's raising the stakes for an interview. I suspect that she and her running mate will do a 60 minutes type interview coming out of this convention, but then she's going to have to get into a routine of it, and I think that she will, and that will be a test that she will have to pass.

SMERCONISH: James, talk to me about the map. You might be the raging Cajun, but you earned your stripes in Pennsylvania. I need to remind people. Pennsylvania and Georgia seem to be the most important of the two. Do you agree with that?

CARVILLE: Pennsylvania is critical. I mean, there are a lot of pathways. I think there are more pathways that you could lose Georgia and win the Electoral College, you lose Pennsylvania. And when the electoral (inaudible) I mean, I don't want to, you know, kind of asking you what kids you like the best. I mean, if they're both critical states.

And I suspect they're going to be campaigning hard, and so will Trump. And as to the question about the news conference, OK, first of all, she's been a tad business. Not been four weeks. She's picked the vice president. She had to plan a convention, she had to merge two campaigns together.

She had to do all of this. And what Trump out there saying stuff like he liked Medal of Honor, because they've been shot at. Well, it's kind of the preliminary qualification for getting one is to get shot at. Or JD Vance says some stupid, asinine thing every other day.

You know, I mean, as a doctrine in presidential politics that says, if your permanent keeps shooting himself, don't get in his way. And, you know while --

SMERCONISH: David --

CARVILLE: -- in itself claptrap about long form press conference, this doesn't make any sense.

SMERCONISH: David, I have had callers to my radio program question whether he's trying to lose it, whether he's trying to tank it. And my response is to say his liberty interest is on the line. This is a guy who for his own freedom and for financial reasons, he needs to win this race.

AXELROD: Well, I think that's part of the problem, Michael. I think he is -- you know, the stakes for him are much larger than for any normal candidate, because the consequences of a defeat is that he's going to have to face the bar of justice here. And he thought he had beaten it. He thought that he had won.

When we were in Milwaukee, the talk there was of landslide. And you know, it was -- it felt like the -- they were talking about the terms of surrender that they were going to demand. And he was very -- he felt very serene that that he had beaten us. Now, all of a sudden, his life is flashing before his eyes. And I think it's one of the things that's unsettling him.

But, you know, they sent him out yesterday to do a press conference or two days ago about the economy. And to -- you know, his big challenge is to make her the incumbent and not the turn the page candidate. And he wants to link her to Biden in a way that will make her the incumbent. And that was what the press conference was all about. And instead, he blew himself up and spent 10 minutes on his legal problems and lashing out in other places and he overwhelmed the message of his own press conference.

He is not a competent candidate right now. And one of the questions about this debate is, is that the guy who's going to step on the debate stage, because, if it is, they got a world of hurt.

SMERCONISH: Hey, James, final question for you, look forward to this week. It's the Democratic National Convention, is it a given that it's another week of good press for her? Or is the risk of the situation with Israel and Gaza such that Chicago could again become something all in 1968?

[09:15:15]

CARVILLE: Well, the one thing we knew about politics, but we know it better than we've ever known it right now, nothing is a given. But I think her job in Chicago and a job at a convention is people really don't know Vice President Harris that well. I mean, we know she's vice president. We know certain things about her on the surface, but this is a chance for to tell her story, and if she gets that story told, they'll come out of that convention with something fundamentally good.

Now, I think the perimeter around the convention is going to be pretty tight, but I'm sure they'll have a right to demonstrate they're, you know, they're upset. This is the United States. So, I suspect there'll be some demonstrations. But in terms of security at a convention, I think it'll be fine, and might be a little difficult or around downtown Chicago or something. I see David and help me navigate it. You know, he tells us what he knows way around that.

AXELROD: We got you covered. We got you covered, Brother.

SMERCONISH: Hey, David, it's your hometown. It's your hometown. Give me 30 seconds on the convention.

AXELROD: I agree with everything that James said. Look, there may be some -- there are obviously going to be protests, and there may be some malign forces that want to throw logs on that fire. And that's something that, you know, the folks who are here to provide security need to be aware of. But I really think that this is a great opportunity for her, for all the reasons James said, and I think they'll take advantage of it. They've turned the battleship in three weeks from a Biden convention, which would have been 80 percent carpet bombing on Trump to a Harris convention, which is going to be a lot of storytelling about her and her values and her history.

And I think they'll be successful.

SMERCONISH: Axelrod and Carville, thank you both very much. Let's do this again before the election. Thank you.

CARVILLE: That's right.

AXELROD: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: What are your thoughts? Hit me up on social media, and I'll read some throughout the course of the program. From the world of X, what do we have, Catherine (ph). Everyone knows everything there is to know about Trump. No one knows anything about Harris.

The risk is hers.

Well, I think there's also a great segue from Paul's comment into today's poll question, which is between now and Election Day, who's going to make fewer big mistakes? They're each going to make mistakes. And I think Paul's got a point. You know, we're still in the point -- we're still at the stage of getting to know the Democratic candidate for president. But which of the two of them is going to make fewer mistakes?

Go to smirconish.com and cast a ballot on that question. Up ahead, nothing separates voter opinions about the candidates, like gender. How come? Pollster and communication strategist Frank Luntz is here to explain.

Also when you're voting, sign up for my free and worthy daily newsletter. Steve Breen sketched for us this week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:22:37]

SMERCONISH: And you can find me on all social media platforms. You know that I love responding in real time to your social media reaction that I don't see in advance. Catherine, some more of what's come in thus far relative to the program. What do we have? She should be ready for interviews.

She was a prosecutor and vice president. She should be able to think on her feet.

Erica, when I raised this with David Axelrod and James Carville, David said, and I agree with this, that if he were advising the Harris campaign, he'd be following the same strategy. It's politically wise, right? Because it is allowing the Vice President to define herself as she wishes to. I'm just saying it's increasingly frustrating for her opponents and perhaps for some of the voters. And at a certain point, I think you risk turning off the media if on August the eighth, when asked when you're going to sit for an interview, you say by the end of the month.

I would think by the end of the week, they've probably got to have her sitting down with her vice presidential candidate and answering whatever questions some journalists they select is prepared to address.

One more if I've got time for it. Do I? Quickly. Another social media reaction? What do we have?

Look at Chicago all boarded up. Just like the 2020 election wasn't necessary if Biden won, who are the destructors? Good question. I hope there's no unrest in Chicago. I'm particularly interested to see whether the delegates who are in that hall are some supportive of the situation of the Palestinian. In other words, I'm wondering if there's going to be any ruckus inside the hall as compared to what goes on outside.

And I think that there -- if there's any discontent inside the arena, it will become a bigger issue than whatever there might be outside. Make sure you're voting on today's poll question. It is this @smirnosh.com, between now and Election Day, who will make fewer big mistakes, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Still to come, what's behind the gender divide? And if you think tipping culture is already out of hand, think about what would happen if workers no longer had to pay taxes on tips, something both Harris and Trump are proposing. And of course, sign up for my free daily newsletter, Scott Stantis, one of our cartoonists this week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:29:28]

SMERCONISH: Will the 2024 presidential election results create the biggest gender divide in modern political history? A recent Fox News poll shows a 22 point gender gap between male and female voters, men favoring Trump by 12, women favoring Harris by 10. Joining me now is Frank Luntz, pollster and communications strategist.

Frank, two to three times a week you're conducting focus groups. You know a little something about the subject. Why the size of this gender divide in this race?

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER & COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGIST: Well, the problem is that Kamala Harris reminds men of their first wife.

[09:30:04]

And Donald Trump reminds women of their first husband's divorce lawyer. And it's actually kind of true. I know it's funny but it's kind of true.

And Trump is losing -- is actually going out of his way to insult his way to this huge gender. And it's not a gap. It's a chasm. And as you said in the introduction, we've never seen this before. I actually believe that they're going to be divorces because of the battle between them.

First, don't insult the opponent for how they look, how they speak. Women can't stand that.

Second, they expect you to focus on the future, not on anger about the past. And that's - again, the exact opposite of what Trump is actually doing. And third, particularly now, we've had arguably eight years of this rough and tumble kind of politics. The economy has been challenging. Inflation has clearly made lives more difficult for so many people. And that you want to -- you want to lean into that.

You acknowledge it. You show people a solution. You give them ideas for how they can change it. That's exactly what Harris did yesterday. You may disagree with what she's saying but at least she is addressing it.

Donald Trump surrounds himself, as you said in that first brilliant segment. By the way, I think you're the first person to bring Carville and Axelrod together. Good for you. And your introduction showing the weaknesses in both Trump and Harris, good for you again.

The problem that we have right now is there are too many news outlets seek to provide information that affirms people's choices rather than informs those choices. But what's critical here --

SMERCONISH: Frank --

LUNTZ: -- go ahead.

SMERCONISH: OK. I want to put something on the screen. I'll read it aloud so that -- so that you can follow, because I can't explain this data. This is courtesy of my colleague Harry Enten.

When you look nationally at the gender divide, it had been Biden by four among women. It grows to 11 for Kamala Harris. Trump plus nine against Biden, still plus nine against Harris.

Now, however, if you take a look at Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, put that up on the screen, the divide grows even further. Among women Harris by 17. Among men Trump by 15. Do you have any thoughts as to why in those three states the gender divide would be even more pronounced than what we see nationally?

LUNTZ: Yes, because no one is seeing the campaign except for those three states and four others, and you've mentioned them already. But the truth is, this is not a nationwide campaign, it's a campaign to win just seven states.

So, they're going to see all the ads, particularly the negative ones. They're going to get all of this intense focus. And I frankly feel sorry for them because they're going to get inundated over the next three months. And it becomes oppressive when it's all this negativity. Why the other side is evil, and why they're enemies not just opponents. And specifically, it's the younger men versus the younger women.

The divide gets smaller and smaller as you get older and older. Once you are aged 60 and older, the divide actually isn't insignificant. The biggest divide is among younger women who see in Harris themselves at some point in the future. And younger men who like Trump's rough and tumble approach to politics. You even see within the Black community, younger men under age 35, a third of them were voting for Trump over Biden. And older women in the Black community it was 95 to three in favor of the Democratic nominee.

So, the divide isn't just gender-based. It's also generationally based. And I think it's going to get even wider as we move closer to the election.

SMERCONISH: Your explanation makes sense. I'm a lifelong Pennsylvanian. I feel -- I guess as people who live in Iowa or New Hampshire feel at the outset of a presidential cycle every four years in terms of the bombardment of information mostly advertising in the race, so that we would be more attenuated to some of the issues that would bring out the issue divide. It makes sense.

Frank Luntz, thank you. Appreciate you being here.

LUNTZ: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: More social media reaction. This comes from the world of YouTube. Yes, you can find me there as well.

Nine percent, good lord, these men cannot handle the idea of a woman president.

Well, OK, you could say that, but can we put back up on the screen the divide in those three states? Harris -- we just had that last full screen. Put that back up. OK. There we go.

So, let's just -- let's just think for a moment. Take a look at this. Take a look at this. In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, arguably, Frank Luntz buys into this, the three most important states in this election, there was a gender divide among women that was to the benefit of President Biden, 10 points.

[09:35:12]

Men favoring Trump by 17. Now, you look at what has happened given that Biden has been replaced by -- it's 17 points among women, 15 points among men. And I guess I would say if you're making the observation that's what the social media response suggested like, hey, what's wrong with these men? You could say the same thing about women.

It used to be, I would say, that education was the best predictor. Tell me someone's level of education and I have a reasonable chance of telling you how the vote in the presidential election. In this cycle, gender is replacing education. Just my two cents.

Still to come, Trump was the first to campaign on not taxing tips. Harris soon jumped on board. Is it a good idea? Won't everyone want their income to be regarded as, hey, that was a tip, that was not income. Somebody on Wall Street, my bonus was actually a tip. My next guest has the expertise and credentials to analyze that.

Are you voting on today's poll question? I hope so. Go to Smerconish.com and tell me this, between now and Election Day who will make fewer big mistakes? They're both going to make mistakes. Who's going to make fewer big mistakes, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

While you're there voting, sign up for the newsletter. Check out what Jack Ohman sketched for us this week. Love that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:41:07]

SMERCONISH: Should hospitality and service industry workers have to pay taxes for their tips? It's a policy issue that both candidates leading in the 2024 presidential election seemed to agree upon.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, CURRENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When I get to office, we are going to not charge taxes on tips, people making tips. We're going to do that right away, first thing in office because it has been a point of contention for years and years and years.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When I am president, we will continue our fight for working families of America, including to raise the minimum wage and eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Trump was the first to suggest the idea. He accused Harris of copying his proposal for political reasons. In 2022, Harris cast the tie-breaking vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which gave the IRS 80 billion in additional funding. That money, in part, would later be used to crack down on service industry workers reporting tips so they could be taxed.

Both candidates want to appeal to about 4 million workers that relied on earning tips last year, specifically, in the battleground state of Nevada. But both of these tax policies would require approval from Congress.

Joining me now is Steven Rosenthal, a senior fellow at the Urban- Brookings Tax Policy Center. He practiced tax law for over 25 years. Steven, good to see you. I think tipping is out of control.

I tip for good service, but to even go have a cup of coffee is to be asked even before they've retrieved the coffee, how much do you want to tip? This is going to make it worse. No?

STEVEN ROSENTHAL, SENIOR FELLOW, URBAN-BROOKINGS TAX POLICY CENTER: Absolutely make it worse. A bad situation worse. When we favor tips from a tax standpoint, we will get more tips.

SMERCONISH: So good politics maybe if you're trying to win in Nevada but why -- be more expansive. Is it bad policy in your opinion?

ROSENTHAL: Well, the problem is targeting the lower paid workers that we all would like to help. I helped Congress draft the tax rolls for many years in the 90s. And oftentimes, we discovered especially later that we missed the people that we wanted to help. And we helped people that we wanted to miss.

So, we might not help the lower-paid workers in the fashion that all of us are sympathetic to. We might end up helping investment bankers on their bonuses or hedge funds on their performance fees. Or even we might see teachers being requested more gifts or maybe your household employees, your plumber, your maids, maybe your grocery tellers will see an increase in tips oftentimes from people we would not like to -- like to expand their treatment.

SMERCONISH: Hasn't technology also changed this entire subject area? If I give someone -- a valet, $5.00 for retrieving my car, I don't know if the $5.00 is being reported entirely. But if I'm using a keypad, right, if I'm using FreedomPay, because I see it all the time on a keypad system and I'm plugging in 20 percent presumably that's being tracked.

ROSENTHAL: I think that's a problem. And I think that's what's driving the increased demand to exempt tax -- to exempt tips from tax. Historically many tip recipients simply did not report but with technology developing point-of-sale developments hours being captured, I think, it's a lot easier for now, the IRS to oversee that tips are actually being reported honestly.

[09:45:05]

Heretofore the IRS has only enforced tips through voluntary efforts, compliance efforts with employers, as opposed to extensive audits. And I think the concern is the RNC is going to have more and more tools at its disposal and more and more tips will have to be reported. But if we exempt this on lower --

SMERCONISH: If you're not -- yes.

ROSENTHAL: -- paid workers, we will find that many more workers, not just lower paid service workers will see their compensation in the form of tips. And we'll get a lot more tip requests on those iPads you described.

SMERCONISH: Well, aren't you incentivizing employers not to have a higher hourly wage? Instead, they'll opt to say, you can take your compensation in the form of a tip because after all, you wouldn't be paying taxes on it. Isn't this contrary to escalating wages is what I'm trying to say?

ROSENTHAL: Well, I think so. I think that the more straightforward way to help lower paid workers is to increase the minimum wage and the subminimum wage for tipped workers. Instead, if we have more tips by customers, will find the employers shifting some of the wage burden to customers. This might be a windfall for employers rather than a benefit to employees.

SMERCONISH: Steven, here's some social media reaction that has just come in. We'll put it up on the screen and both address it. This isn't about tips, says Michael. He doesn't care about that. I presume that's a Trump reference. He's looking to make bonuses tax- free. A huge windfall for rich folks in disguise.

I have to note Kamala Harris is also in support of this idea. So, I don't know if that person would say the same thing. What's your response?

ROSENTHAL: Well, as drafted Senator Cruz introduced in the Congress the Trump plan, or at least his take on the Trump plan. And that was riddled with loopholes where investment makers could exclude bonuses. Arguably hedge fund managers could exclude performance fees. Lawyers could exclude success fees.

But frankly, it's not too hard to limit the benefits for high income earners. And Kamala Harris promised to do so to distinguish her proposal from Trump's. Having said that, it's still going to be hard to draw a proper scope around tips and not spill over into other forms of compensation. As I said earlier, there are a lot of lower paid workers never see wages, but soon to be if they were enacted legislation to exempt tips we'll see a lot more shifting to tip requests than wages.

SMERCONISH: Steven Rosenthal, thank you for your expertise. We appreciate it. To me it just seems like a blatant bid for the votes of Nevada residents. We'll see how it pans out.

You still got time to vote on today's poll question. Go to Smerconish.com and tell me this, between now and Election Day, who will make fewer big mistakes? They're both going to make mistakes. Who's going to make fewer big mistakes, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

Subscribe to the newsletter while you're there. You'll see the work of editorial cartoonist like Rob Rogers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:53:08]

SMERCONISH: So, there's the result, thus far. Wow. Wow, holy smokes. I am like doubly smacked. Between now and Election Day, who will make fewer big mistakes? I'm just shocked by the disparity between the two.

Maybe it's because it's paying off for her so far to be, you know, kind of bubble wrapped reminiscent of Biden in 2020, except he had COVID as a basis for saying, I've got to be relegated to Delaware. And the amount of voting was huge.

Real quick. Social media reaction, if we've got time for one because I've got something very important to say. Obviously, it's Harris, it's Harris. Trump's biggest issue is he talks too much, especially about things in the rearview mirror. Harris' only problem could be the debate. But there's a lot of time until that, not that much time.

I mean, the kids are going to be back-to-school real soon if they're not already. Friday night lights and high-school football, will be back among us. The debate will take place and people will be voting.

I've got a personal note that I want to close with. Our team was stunned and saddened on Thursday to learn of the passing of our colleague and friend, David Handelman. David was a gifted writer and producer who was with this program for nearly a decade. David was a soft soul with a great wit. After graduating from Harvard, David began his career as a print journalist before pivoting to television writing and producing for shows on CBS and NBC, ABC, HBO, the CW, and CNN.

He started off as a staff writer at "Rolling Stone." He covered everything from the Beastie Boys to Sam Kinison. He was also the arts editor for "Vogue" and wrote for dozens of publications, including "The New York Times," "New York Magazine" and "GQ." He broke into television by writing a speculative script with kids in the hall member, Mark McKinney.

[09:55:01]

Aaron Sorkin read it, hired them to co-write a freelance episode of "Sports Night." He then joined the staff of "The West Wing" for season for four, Sorkin's final year. He would end up writing for all four of Sorkin's TV series, including the "Newsroom" and "Studio 60."

He has also written and produced for "Good Morning America, "One Tree Hill," and ABC's Nashville. He and I would best be described as collaborators. Typically, I would draft a commentary on Thursday night, hand it over to David on Friday morning before starting my radio program.

He would then tweak and return it to me midday. We'd go back and forth throughout the afternoon and well into the evening, sometimes with disagreement.

Among the things that I respected about David, his professionalism. You see our politics often did not align, but he never let that become an issue. Even when he disagreed with my message, he helped me say it clearly and grammatically correct.

He was a friend to many and a very supportive mentor to our team's young producers. David Handelman was only 63. He is survived by his wife Syd and daughters Helen and Nancy. May his memory be for a blessing.

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