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What A Crazy Week, Did Any Of It Make Any Difference; Rep. Byron Donalds, (R-FL), Is Interviewed About Presidential Election; Gender And Education, The Biggest Divide. Could Democrats' Democracy Message Cost Them The Election. Aired 9-10a

Aired November 02, 2024 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: - about people of color are not niche, they're news. And my hope is that over this year and the years to come, we continue to provide this space where we can bring the voices of color to the big conversation that are not heard anywhere else and to elevate those stories you're not seeing anywhere else.

Thank you for joining me today and every Saturday at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Remember, if you haven't yet make a plan to vote Smerconish starts now.

[09:00:36]

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR: Three days left, it's no time to be shy. I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia.

This election could come down to the thinnest of margins. Data points and opinions don't show a clear winner. Nationally, CNN's poll of suggests Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are running near even in the race for the White House. Harris a slight edge at 48 percent to Trump's 47 percent. Then you've got the CNN poll of polls in the battleground states, it's all margin of error territory hinting at a tight race that could go either way.

In three runs for the presidency, Trump has never been in this strong of a position according to the polls, even though you wouldn't say that he's leading. In 2016, the polls were predicting a Hillary victory, FiveThirtyEight had her up by three nationally, on this day, November 2, 2016, 45 to Trump's 42.

At this point in 2020 FiveThirtyEight had Biden up by almost eight and a half, 51.8 to Trump's 43.4. Once the final numbers came in, Hillary Clinton did win the popular vote by 2 percent but lost the election. And Biden did beat Trump in the popular vote, yes, but it wasn't by eight and a half nationally, it was by four and a half. It's enough to raise this question, are Trump's numbers under reported yet again? If they are, he wins.

Or have pollsters adjusted, accounting for the so called hidden Trump voters? And what about shy Harris voters? Could they tip the ballots? Justin Brown, writing in Politico, said "It's taken pollsters eight years to pin down Trump's voters. Is 100 days really enough to accurately capture potential Harris voters? These voters are not necessarily shy with their support for Kamala Harris, instead, the question is whether they're being overlooked by current polling methods."

Polling data expert Nate Silver slammed election forecasts showing a close race, accusing many pollsters of herding to ensure their predictions aren't too far off from other predictions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NATE SILVER, FOUNDER, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: You know, learn very much in this last week of the polling. In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less. They all -- every time a pollster, oh, every state is just a plus one. Every little -- every single state's a tie. No, you're (bleep) herding, you're cheating.

You're cheating. Your numbers aren't all going to come out at exactly one point leads. When you're sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys, you are lying. You're putting (bleep) finger on the scale.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMERCONISH: Silver's own latest Electoral College probability, Electoral College has Trump overtaking Harris with a 53.8 percent likelihood, 45.8 percent for Harris in order to return to the White House. The other Nate, Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for the "New York Times," cautions and says that recent changes add up to a case of cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that it's far from a guarantee. What other indicators do we have? The betting markets. They show Trump with a more than 50 percent likelihood of beating Harris.

Betfair has him at 63 percent, Polymarket at 57 percent, PredictIt, giving him a 52 percent shot. Is it because the bro vote is laying a lot of crypto on him? Who knows? On the other hand, the stock market has been on a tear, up 10 percent since August. This would suggest a Harris victory.

The stock market has been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party's candidate will retain control of the White House, correctly forecasting all but four presidential races over the last 96 years. And then, culturally speaking, there's an odd push and pull. A Ted Lasso world, optimistic and kind, versus a Yellowstone world where grit and machismo dominate. These cultural touchstones may signal the public's mind set as much as any other survey.

I'm continually asked, by not just television viewers and radio listeners, but many friends and family, who do you think is going to win the election? My answer is, I don't know. My head says Trump. My gut says Harris. I just don't know.

More important, of course, is that we all get out and vote. And remember this, Election Day is a massive, massive undertaking. Stuff happens. Don't draw conclusions from any singular report of irregularity.

David Litt, President Obama's former speechwriter, he put it best. He wrote these words, each location will experience nearly double the daily foot traffic of your average Starbucks. Not only that, but every one of these approximately 116,000 stores will be a pop up, remaining open for just one day and closing for good at night. And, oh, by the way, more than 900,000 votes will -- voters will be woefully underpaid. That is Election Day in America.

[09:05:14]

OK? Remember the way we structure our campaigns, once a year this apparatus comes together. And if there are irregularities, it doesn't mean that there's widespread fraud.

I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com and answer today's poll question, what will be Wednesday's headline? Harris ekes out a victory? Harris wins decisively? Trump ekes out a victory? Trump wins decisively?

Race too close to call. Joining me now, three men who know what it takes to make or break a campaign, Democratic strategist, the Ragin Cajun, James Carville, the man behind Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign victory, the focus of a new CNN film, "Carville, Winning is Everything, Stupid," in theaters now, will be released on Max on November 14. CNN Senior Political Commentator and former senior adviser to President Obama, David Axelrod is here. His podcast, "The Axe Files" just hit its 600th episode. By the way, I'm a guest in one of those.

Republican Congressman and Trump campaign surrogate Byron Donalds back with us as well.

David, I want to begin with you. What a crazy final week. The comedian at Madison Square Garden, the Biden garbage comment, the Biden White House adding an apostrophe to change the intent on that comment, you had Mark Cuban on women around Trump. You had Trump saying guns are trained on the face of Liz Cheney. What would happen? And so many more that I'm forgetting.

Did any of it make a difference?

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, I kind of think it does because there -- you know, there are a lot of people out here who are living their lives and are now just focusing on the race. And the question is how do you close the race? And in the main, I think that Harris has been more disciplined in her closing.

I've said many times, Michael, that the Trump campaign itself, its advertising and general blocking and tackling has been very professional and very well-conceived. Their problem is their candidate who takes them off message in his two hour standups. And so they never can punch through with the message they have. We're with Byron Donalds, he's a talk, a talking point machine. He never -- you can't blast him off his talking points with a bulldozer.

That candidate needed a little more of that this week because I think between the rally on Sunday and some of his other comments certainly the Liz Cheney comment, he is taking the campaign off of the message they want to deliver. SMERCONISH: Byron Donalds respond to that.

REP. BYRON DONALDS (R-FL): I mean first, I don't know to be happy or upset by what David said. Try to stay away from talking points. I just speak the facts as I see them.

Look, I think at the end of this race, all of the stuff that's been dusted up over the last week is really not going to matter much. I think the core issues in the country remain the same. This has been an economy that where working families have struggled because of high inflation. The year over year number might be down but the cumulative effect over the last four years has been disastrous for them. Immigration still a real issue all throughout the United States and voters en masse do want the border secured and they want some level of deportations to occur.

But if you talk about the last week in terms of the comments that have been made, I think what people are also starting to see is some of the gross mischaracterizations and in some respects the equivalency, depending if you're talking about President Trump versus President Biden or a comic versus Mark Cuban. There's this relativism in terms of how to equate those comments to me just doesn't really measure up.

You can't compare my comment --

SMERCONISH: My hunch is --

DONALDS: -- at a rally to President Biden. You simply cannot.

SMERCONISH: James, my hunch is that it's all noise and that it all cancels each other out. This is what I most want to ask the Ragin Cajun. What happened to persuasion? Like when and how did we become all about motivation? And nobody's trying to convince anybody to switch sides or win them over.

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: You know, on one hand we have an apostrophe. We don't know if it was there or it's not there. On the other hand, someone wants to use the military to arrest their political opponents. Let's mull on what -- why don't somebody cut the other hand off and do themselves a favor? And we're going to post here, and I don't see -- and the Constitution is on the ballot.

Somebody needs to tell the public that, OK? It would be nice. But we got to talk about the apostrophe and then we got to talk about jail and opponents because really those are two equal things in modern American society.

SMERCONISH: Byron Donalds, that's for you.

AXELROD: Hey, Michael --

SMERCONISH: That's for you. And then I'm going to ask David Axelrod a question. Go ahead, Byron.

[09:10:00] DONALDS: My simple response would be, if you're going to talk about jailing opponents, that's something that's come out of the Harris- Biden administration because last time I checked, it was the Department of Justice by their special counsels that have been trying to jail Donald Trump on a myriad of issues. When Donald Trump was president, he didn't turn the Department of Justice on his political rivals. He did not do that.

And if you're going to talk about the comment about whether the National Guard is deployed, remember the question and the context it was, if there is unrest in the country post-election and post inauguration, if Donald Trump is to be victorious, would he use the National Guard to protect citizens? His answer was, yes, he would. So I think that the -- this is where the narrative building has been grossly mistaken and misleading to the American public to bring emotions into our elections, where the emotions simply don't need to exist.

SMERCONISH: David Axelrod, get in on this.

AXELROD: Yes. Well, first of all, it's -- if Trump as president didn't use the Justice Department to go after his opponents, it wasn't for lack of trying, it was because there were people in the Justice Department and in his own counsel's office who intervened and prevented that. But it certainly was his impulse to do that. And he said throughout this campaign that he wants to do that. But just getting back to the campaign itself, you know, I said that Harris has been disciplined, Trump has not been disciplined.

The Harris message really is I am focused on the problems of people. Here are my ideas to help people, you know, who are looking for affordable housing, who want to start a small business, who are worried about caring for an elderly parent. There are things we can do to help. And he's so busy with his enemies list and his vengeance that, well, he'll never get around to the problems of people because at the end of the day, Donald Trump is about Donald Trump. And the way he's behaving this week reinforces her message, which is why I think it's more than noise, Michael.

I think it actually has strengthened her closing argument.

SMERCONISH: James Carville, who's hiding? Are there hidden Trump voters? You look at all the data, are they underestimating Harris's poll? How do you read the data?

CARVILLE: Well, I can't let something go unsaid, the good congressman, maybe I dream this. You know, I'm getting old, so my memory is not good. But I do think I remember Trump saying he would jail his political opponents. And then his flunkies went out and said, no, that's not really what he meant. And Then he came back and said, yes, that's what I really mean.

So why his own director of national intelligence thinks that he's compromised, that the Kremlin has blackmail on him? But for God's sakes, let's talk about the apostrophe because that is what's coming down. I don't know if they're hidden Trump voters or not. I do know that the Constitution of the United States of America is on the ballot this coming Tuesday. And I think it's time for people to start acting like it.

That's my personal view.

SMERCONISH: I'm trying to keep it fair. My questions today are apparently meaningless. Byron, Donald's back to you. You've got the opportunity now to respond to James. Quickly, though.

DONALDS: Quick responses is that like I said before Donald Trump was president, he didn't do any of these things. His administration did not do them. And if you look at the Harris campaign, you can make the argument, yes, she's disciplined, but it's also overly scripted because she's trying to distract from her agenda and from her record as vice president serving with Joe Biden. And that's what voters are concerned about more than anything else. They are comparing the last two presidential administrations and it's without a doubt Donald Trump had the more successful presidency for the American people.

And if you're going to talk about the Constitution, it was the Biden- Harris administration that spied on the American people during COVID- 19 and suppressed the free speech of the American people using the weight of the White House to do so. That has been documented by House investigations. So if we're going to talk about the Constitution, let's really talk about it. Because it's also the Biden-Harris administration --

SMERCONISH: All right. We're going to take a timeout.

DONALDS: -- that has ignored the Supreme Court when it comes to student loan bailouts.

SMERCONISH: We're going to take a time out, come back with my three special guests, talk about campaign strategy and potential paths to get to 270 Electoral College votes.

I want to know what you think. Hit me up on social media. I'll read some responses throughout the course of the program. This came in thus far, among many other comments. Has there ever been an election with two candidates that were less qualified?

An insurrectionist felon versus a never won a primary, coronated, bait and switch replacement. You know, it's a 50-50 race. You know what I'm wondering? I'm wondering if this might be my poll question tomorrow. Things seem like they are so entrenched and so divided that I'm wondering if President Biden were still the candidate, would the numbers be exactly the same, and my hunch is that they were.

I want to know what you think. Go to my website at smerconish.com, answer today's poll question. What will be Wednesday's headline? Harris ekes out a victory. Harris wins decisively.

Trump ekes out a victory. Trump wins decisively. The race is too close to call.

[09:15:08] Still ahead, the race is tight. The paths to victory are many, but which one is the most winding and unexpected? We're going to break down the roots both candidates could take to clinch a win. Sign up for the newsletter while you're there voting at smerconish.com. Scott Stantis drew for us this week.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMERCONISH: Back now with my all-star panel.

James, Doug Sosnik is a very bright guy. You have Bill Clinton, President Bill Clinton in common. Here's something that he just wrote for the "New York Times." We'll put it on the screen. I'm going to ask you to react.

[09:20:08]

"The reason for such a dead even race is that the deep divisions in our country are all but impermeable to events surrounding the campaign, including the historic turmoil of 2024. That is why Biden was virtually tied with Trump in many polls before their June debate, even though the president had an abysmal job approval rating in the 30s and 70 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction. That is why Trump's standing in the polls has not changed, despite becoming a convicted felon and constantly making statements that are flat out lies. And that is why Harris, who has raised over a billion dollars and has heavily outspent Trump and won virtually every news cycle for two months and by all accounts dominated the debate, is running at best only even in national and swing state polling."

And I should also add that was all part of a piece that he published saying in the end, it's Trump who has more paths to 270. James Carville's reaction.

CARVILLE: First of all, I'm not sure it's going to be that close. These things tend to break it to end. So there's seven swing states. I don't think they're four, three. But by the way, my ears, I didn't dream this.

I was touched and told Trump actually did say he would jail his opponents. His flunky said no, and he said yes, I really mean it. And he also said his domestic political opponents were more dangerous to the United States than Putin regime. That's the level that we're dealing with here. So you tell me the path that is the path to that, we on the path to end the Constitution, and the man is telling us right to his face.

And we have apologists out there that are trying to tell us we didn't see or hear exactly what we saw and heard. That's a fact.

SMERCONISH: David Axelrod, does Donald Trump have more paths to 270 than Kamala Harris?

AXELROD: Probably. Probably. But you know, and James may be right, because these -- all these battleground states are so close that if they break together someone could end up with a big electoral victory. But I still believe, Michael, that you're sitting in ground zero there in Pennsylvania and that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will win this election.

And one of the things that has become clearer, I think, as we close down this race is that what we thought in the beginning, you know, apropos to what Sosnik wrote, what we thought in the beginning is going to be true in the end that the blue wall states are going to tell the story, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and they're all very, very close.

SMERCONISH: If she wins all three, if the vice president, David Axelrod, wins all three. In fact, we have a graphic from Sosnik's piece that displays this. If she takes the three blue wall states, then she's right at 270 assuming everything else breaks the way that it is expected.

AXELROD: Yes. Well, if now, if she takes all three and including -- and then wins the Omaha District, she'll be at 270. The Omaha District that Biden won. Remember, there are two states in the country that electoral -- electors by congressional district. Nebraska is one.

Republicans there tried to change it. They couldn't get the votes in the legislature to do it before the election. And it's likely that she will win that seat in Omaha. If she does, the question is, will there be an attempt after that to change the rules before the electors vote on December 14th? I wouldn't put that out of the question.

I don't think -- I think Trump's going to do everything possible to win this race. He's got more at stake than just the presidency. He's facing all of these legal problems.

So, you know, I think that is something to watch. But, yes, I think that at the end of the day, she will win the election if she wins those three states and she'll win 270 electoral votes. Not impossible that she could win some of the Sunbelt states. They're going to be close, but they weren't worked as heavily during the Biden campaign because he didn't see them as a path. And so the Harris campaign has been playing catch up there.

SMERCONISH: Congressman Byron Donald, why has former President Trump not asked Nikki Haley, Governor Haley, to come out and participate in the campaign where she seems willing to do so?

DONALDS: Well, look, I think that when you're talking about that dynamic, it's incumbent on people who want to come into the campaign and help for them to reach out to the president and his team first, not the other way around. That's just the way I see it. There's a lot of Republican surrogates who have been calling into the campaign, myself included, like I call them. I don't wait for them to call me because they're busy and they're trying to make sure that the message is tight, that they're focused on the data, that they're getting the message out to voters and that they're turning out the vote.

[09:25:04] I think to your broader question about the path, if Kamala Harris loses one of the blue wall states, this thing is over. And I actually tend to think -- my gut is it's tight. But my head tells me that, I think that -- I think all these battleground states begin to break the same way because your voting population that's undecided is dealing with the same question in front of them. And that's basically do I believe the rhetoric around Donald Trump or do I believe the reality of the failures of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden?

SMERCONISH: So to the issue of the non-use of Nikki Haley, I'm going to put up on the screen something that displays the divide between men without a college education and women with a college degree. It's a 40 -- it's the largest demographic gap in all the polling that I've seen, 43 points. Let me try and say it more clearly. The gap between men without a college degree and women with a college degree, 43 points. I don't know, gentlemen, who has return and who doesn't, but trust me, that's what the data shows.

James Carville, respond to that and to the way in which Harris is doing so well with women with a college degree. But Trump's got the edge of men who lack a college degree.

CARVILLE: What about men with a college degree? That's a pretty key demographic here. I'm sorry I have to bring it up. Not all people with a college degree are women. And I think men with a college degree are going to provide --

SMERCONISH: Plus seven.

CARVILLE: -- simply because they tend to be more pro-choice than men without a college degree. They also have something to lose in this economy. So I think we have a lot of upside there.

SMERCONISH: Axe (ph), you have a response to that gender and educational dividend?

AXELROD: Yes, look, I think that there are a few things that can determine it. At the very basic level if she wins among women by an equal or larger margin than Trump wins among men, she will win the election. Women vote in larger numbers. I think that's one of the questions here is are there Republican women who are going to pull for her on the basis of abortion? And some of the issues that James has raised.

So -- but there's no doubt this has been a long term trend, Michael, you know this, that Democrats in the last several cycles have done relatively poorly among non-college men and non-college white voters, non-college white men and non-college white voters. This is nothing new. The truth is she's doing better among white voters generally because of the votes of college educated voters.

But I just want to say one thing about what Byron said. The question is not whether people believe the rhetoric about Donald Trump, it's whether they believe Donald Trump's rhetoric. Because James is right, I mean, throughout this campaign, he has talked about punishing his enemies. He's talked about, you know, his political enemies as the enemy within. He's talked about using the military against American citizens.

And so the question is, do you believe him? And is this what he's going to be spending his time on when he's president and what does that portend for the country? I think that's one of the things that's holding him back in this election. The choice between the temperament and the values or lack of values or whatever you want to come of Donald Trump and whatever questions people have about Biden and the Biden administration and whether they think she's going to bring change from it. And I think that's the big debate that's going on here.

SMERCONISH: Congressman, fairness demands you get the final word. Take 30 seconds.

DONALDS: All I would say is that I think the reason why Kamala Harris is going to lose this election is because I think voters were going to gave her an opportunity to say what she would do. And like she famously said on "The View," not much would change. Nothing really comes to mind. And voters are scratching their head behind that. The word salad doesn't work.

The empty phrases do not work. People want concrete answers to what's ailing them in this country. She's not provided that, Donald Trump has. And that's why the change candidate is Donald Trump. And that's why I believe he's going to win in three days.

SMERCONISH: Byron Donalds, David Axelrod, James Carville, appreciate all three of you. Thank you for being here.

AXELROD: Thank you.

SMERCONISH: Let's see what some of the social media reaction is that has come in during the course of today's program. We got this. The election cycle will go down in history as probably the wildest ever. Netflix documentary coming soon, laugh out loud. I'm awaiting the publication of an editorial cartoon book.

I know exactly of what you're saying. It's an editorial cartoon book that retells the story. By the way, not selling any books. They're all sold out. I just thought you'd find interesting.

And we're waiting until the final chapter before we can print it. And the reason we're doing it is to raise money for a great charity, but also to just tell the story visually of the nuttiest, tumultuous, fill in the blank election cycle of the modern era.

I want to remind you, go to my Web site at Smerconish.com and answer today's poll question. What will be Wednesday's headline? I'm giving you four different scenarios.

By the way, Catherine, my producer, does not like that I've given you four choices. She said, can't you simplify it? Not enough people will vote if you've got four choices. And I said, no, they're going to vote. So, don't let me down.

Is Harris going to eke out victory? Is Harris going to win decisively? Is Trump going to eke out victory? Is Trump going to win decisively? Or on Wednesday will we be saying, it's too close to call?

Still to come, your social media reaction to my commentary. Plus, what is the key factor keeping both candidates from sealing the deal with voters. We're going to dig into the main obstacle both campaigns face as they scramble to secure that critical last-minute support.

Sign up for the newsletter at Smerconish.com when you're voting on today's poll question. Steve Breen drew this for us this week. Two great cartoons as a matter of fact.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:35:47]

SMERCONISH: Everybody is at a fever pitch. A lot of social media this week.

Thanks to Smerconish's most important state and county. We will have guaranteed delays due to their inability to decipher mail-in ballots.

Kelly Ann referring to me saying that I'm actually doing my radio program Tuesday from what I regard as the most important town, and the most important county, and the most important state. It happens to be where I was born and raised, Doylestown, Pennsylvania.

And it's true that the legislature hasn't, to my satisfaction, resolved some of the issues relative to mail-in ballots. The the whole issue of, and I voted this way, on the exterior of the envelope if you mistakenly list the date your ballot could be disqualified. Notwithstanding that there's a bar code system. In fact, I got an email and it told me exactly when they received my ballot.

So, is it a perfect system? It is not a perfect system. And it could go on for a while because also in Pennsylvania we don't allow the pre- canvassing of ballots. They can't touch them and work on them until election morning. Imperfect. Imperfect, for sure. But not indicative of fraud or chicanery of any kind. Which is why I made that point earlier in the program.

Stuff happens. It's the nature of the way that we run our elections. It doesn't mean there's widespread fraud. So be ready for complaints that say that there is that are not supported by the evidence.

Sorry, I got long-winded. One more if I've got time for it. I think that I do. Maybe even two.

Are any states up for grabs besides the swing states?

You know, Kyle, I love that question. I am of the opinion, you are then going to say to me, well, which one? But there's got to be a surprise out there. There's got to be a surprise out there. I can't believe that it's all going to be with this machinelike precision. This is what the pollsters told us and it's going to come down to these seven. And the other 43 are all, you know, as anticipated.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were a sleeper out there. And maybe more than one. And that would be a good thing. Another poll -- pardon me, social media response. What do we have?

Kamala Harris has the hidden voters. The Trump supporters are so outspoken that we just don't engage them or let our intentions be known. Especially the wives of --

Laurel, can I say something about that? So, I had a conversation yesterday on my radio program talking about yard signs. And are they suggestive of election outcome? Had academic from High Point University and he was terrific. Dr. Lenoir (ph) was his name.

Anyway, a caller calls my show and says, I've been driving all over the eastern seaboard and I noticed a pattern that when there is that house, and we have all seen that house, that is totally festooned with Trump paraphernalia and signs there aren't many Harris signs around. Otherwise, there are lots of signs. Meaning, are people intimidated by the one in the neighborhood that is like just over the top and it quiets the rest of the community?

That's part of the theory that it's actually Harris who is underrepresented in the polls. We are going to find out in three days.

With the election conclusion, as I say just three days away, we are going to discuss the closing strategy of each campaign with an expert in a moment. Don't forget to vote on today's poll question at Smercnoish.com.

By the way, are you voting as a prognosticator, which is what I'm asking? Or are you voting what you are looking for? I hope the former, not the latter.

How's it going to end? Go to Smerconish.com. I've got four different scenarios for you. And you can vote as you see fit.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:43:53]

SMERCONISH: In the final stretch of this high-stakes election, neither campaign wants to be left in the woulda, coulda, shoulda vortex on what could have been done to put their candidate in the White House.

The Harris campaign has their laser focused on defending democracy missed the mark. My next guest wrote in "The Hill" about how this approach could cost the Democrats the election. She argues that voters are turning their attention to issues that hit close to home, like the economy, and this shapes perception and might explain why Donald Trump is neck in neck with Vice President Harris across the polls despite his history of challenging Democratic institutions.

Let's bring in Dr. Lauren Wright, a research scholar and lecturer in political science at Princeton University, and author of "Star Power: American Democracy in the Age of Celebrity Candidate." Is that the argument, Dr. Wright, the maybe her focus should have been more on the economy in the final days of the campaign and not so much on democracy, as my prior guest, David Axelrod -- pardon me, James Carville, was making the pitch? LAUREN WRIGHT, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENTIST: Absolutely. And I would say that along with my co-author, Sean Westward at Dartmouth, that should have been the case since January. Biden opened his campaign famously on the risk to democracy and the fact that the country itself was at risk.

[09:45:06]

And democracy is simply something amorphous. It's open to interpretation. About 55 percent of Republicans think Harris is a threat to democracy, for instance. And they care so much more about other issues. The economy and inflation, especially.

And as your last guest, David Axelrod, said famously, people sitting around the table talking about democracy probably don't have to worry about the food sitting on the table. And that is the crux of this election. It's the top of every poll. And voters are very, very angry about the Biden-Harris economy.

SMERCONISH: So, given the wrong track numbers, that I know you're familiar with, and the fact that inflation at a certain point hit nine percent on the watch of Vice President Harris, let's switch now, why hasn't Trump been able to close the deal?

WRIGHT: Well, his mistakes and scandals are very well known. More than half of the country deeply disliked Trump. Polls have shown that very consistently. They know about January 6th. They hold him responsible. And CNN has some of the best polling on that, that shows he even alienated a segment of Republicans on January 6.

And we know he is twice impeached. He lost the last election and tried to stay in power. These are all very controversial things.

But honestly, I think, even if you look at Harris' record on democratic values, on truthfulness, on transparency, she has got some real problems there too. Not least of which is the way she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket without a single vote being cast in the last three months of the election.

I think these are very fair questions to ask. And I think they need to be scrutinized for both candidates.

SMERCONISH: Right but that's not a detraction from her, right? The way in which she got the gig Biden imploded at the debate. We all watched it. And consequently, stood down.

WRIGHT: I disagree. Yes.

SMERCONISH: You disagree? How so?

WRIGHT: I disagree because she is the sitting vice president and she has campaigned this entire time on how she was the last decision-maker in the room. She likes to say from the Situation Room to the Oval Office, I was one of the trusted voices on policy.

And she has simultaneously held the position that she was a key player in the administration, which I absolutely think she was. I have data that shows she has been the most active vice president ever, by some measures. And that when she is asked about the Biden administration's controversial policies, he is not on the ticket, that doesn't matter, don't ask about that, I'm on the ticket.

Well, yes, you are the candidate and it is fair to ask you about those issues. And her answers have been really inconsistent. Including Biden's fitness.

SMERCONISH: OK. I misunderstood. Your argument --

WRIGHT: Yes.

SMERCONISH: Your argument, I think, is she should have spoken up about what she saw --

WRIGHT: Absolutely.

SMERCONISH: -- and not waited for George Clooney.

WRIGHT: Absolutely.

SMERCONISH: That's what you are saying. Give me an insight into --

WRIGHT: And even after George Clooney she hasn't given a consistent answer. And I think those questions are very fair to ask. She said Biden --

SMERCONISH: Give me the --

WRIGHT: -- you know, he has had a great record, but she avoids the cognitive decline questions, which I think are relevant.

Give me the Cliffs Notes version of what you are about to publish in the "Wall Street Journal." You say for different reasons there are problems with each. Let me hear it.

WRIGHT: Yes. I think both candidates, an argument can be made, are unfit for office. Donald Trump lost an election in 2020 and he tried to hang on to power. That's quintessentially anti-democratic. It's quintessentially anti-American.

But Harris on the same issue of democracy, which she has urged voters to evaluate the candidates by, has defended essentially what might be a shadow government in the Biden administration. She can't say with a straight face that he is fit for office, because he was removed from the top of the ticket, which is an extraordinary event, and replaced in three months before the election. Americans saw it with their own eyes, that debate back in June. And that's why he is no longer the candidate.

I also think on the policies she has defended and shown an openness to expanding the Supreme Court. That's exactly what Hugo Chavez did to seize power in Venezuela. It's anti-democratic. She has shown her willingness to censor unpopular (INAUDIBLE) voices on social media. That's anti-democratic too. SMERCONISH: You realize -- Dr. Wright -- Dr. Wright, you realize I will be the one who will bear the brunt of the nasty emails from people who are going to say that you are establishing parity between the two.

WRIGHT: I will too. I will too.

SMERCONISH: Do you really mean to say that they are equal threats to democracy? I'm out of time, so make it fast.

WRIGHT: Yes, I will. I don't think -- you know, I think, voters will make different decisions about that.

[09:50:02]

But I don't think we should judge each other. I think there's a very strong argument to be made that on this question of democracy, truthfulness, and transparency, they have serious problems. And it's not as easy as pundits have made it out to be. There is not one clear patriotic candidate and we should be open to each other's decisions. It's subjective and let's stop calling each other fascists and enemies.

SMERCONISH: OK. I imagine it's like something at Princeton Edu, right, if they want to reach out for you. I'm just joking.

WRIGHT: It is.

SMERCONISH: I'm just joking. Thank you.

WRIGHT: No, don't joke. I get emails all the time. Thanks, Michael.

SMERCONISH: You still have time to vote on our poll today at Smerconish.com. Make sure you are voting on this. What is the Wednesday headline? OK. Is somebody eking out a victory? Is somebody winning decisively? Or will the race be too close to call?

Go vote. Sign up for the newsletter while you're there.

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[09:55:38]

SMERCONISH: So, there's the result so far. A lot of voting. Wow, 48,182. What's the Wednesday headline? Forty percent of plurality say, Harris wins decisively. Thirty-two percent say, too close to call. Is that wishful thinking or is that prognostication?

Thank you for watching. Go vote. See you next weekend.

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