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CNN Saturday Morning News

What May be in Store for Combatants in Afghanistan

Aired September 22, 2001 - 08:12   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DONNA KELLEY, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush in his speech touched on the challenges of going after the Taliban in Afghanistan as he vowed to win the war against terrorism. We want to take a closer look at Afghanistan with you.

It's landlocked and it's certainly mountainous, as we've been telling you. And they've had about 20 years of unrest and it's left the infrastructure in a complete mess. A lot of the roads are in ruins. The people are impoverished. Afghan fighters, as you may have heard already, first fought off a Soviet invasion. They spent about 10 years doing that. Then they've had this civil war that's erupted between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance and the road system crumbling, a lot of land mines throughout the country.

We want to show you toward the north, if you look there, that's where the Northern Alliance has control of Afghanistan and the rest of the nation, though, really is run by the Taliban.

There are certain pockets that U.S. intelligence feels that the Alliance has. But aside from that, it certainly is controlled by the Taliban. The last estimation really was about five percent as we take a peek at that.

So there you can see, we can show you where the Northern Alliance does hold control.

We want to get some insight on Afghanistan, its suspected terrorists and the Taliban. We turn to Afghan military specialist David Isby. He is joining us from Washington. Mr. Isby, nice to have you join us. Thank you.

DAVID ISBY, AFGHAN MILITARY SPECIALIST: Good morning.

KELLEY: I don't know if you've heard the news this morning already that the Taliban is claiming that they have downed a plane, the Pentagon not talking about that report. They think it may be an unmanned spy plane or maybe even a helicopter from the Northern Alliance.

What are the capabilities of the Afghan military at this point?

ISBY: Afghan military capabilities are fairly limited. That's one of the reasons bin Laden has been so important to the Taliban regime. He has provided them with access to funding and also technological expertise that they really don't have after the long, prolonged war.

For example, bin Laden funds the 55th Brigade, which is the only unit in the Taliban's armed forces that has good night vision equipment.

KELLEY: How strong are the forces? What's the number like?

ISBY: Numbers, again, you're talking of combatants on either side, many of them part-time. While Taliban might be able to mobilize up to 130,000 people throughout the country, its hard core is maybe 15,000, 20,000, 130 tanks, two dozen helicopters, about as many aircraft.

KELLEY: And you talk about Osama bin Laden and certainly he has put a face on terrorism for a lot of people, but you also think it's a mistake to make him as the only terrorist in this war.

ISBY: Absolutely. There are -- terrorism is a worldwide phenomenon. Osama bin Laden is perhaps just its most photogenic head. And we don't know whether or not he was, gave the orders to carry out what happened on the 11 of September or it was just some of his assets.

That does not mean he isn't a dangerous person and even after the 11 of September, he's still got more Afghan blood on his hands than American blood due to his concentration on the civil war there.

KELLEY: What about Pakistan? Pakistan will cooperate, but what are the risks for Pakistan?

ISBY: Pakistan, that is a key issue. Certainly if Pakistani cooperation leads people within the army to try and replace Musharraf, leads them to make an alliance with the religious parties there, there is a chance for instability.

What Musharraf is aiming for is uncertain. He may be seeing that this would be a bold, decisive stroke to try and turn Pakistan around from its current status as a failing state.

KELLEY: Yesterday they had some demonstrations there, but apparently there was some good feeling about that because they were not as strong and numerous as they thought they could be and so does he look, General Musharraf, President Musharraf, does he look in a stronger position?

ISBY: Musharraf is strong. He has been relatively well respected. But again, in Pakistan, politics, the balance lies with the military. The military decides who succeeds and who's failed. And Pakistani intelligence, the ISI, Interservices Intelligence, has been the great supporter of the Taliban for most of its life and many of the time it's just not under control of the government in Islamabad. It has its own policies.

So how they are going to take a change in orders that the Taliban are no longer your proteges they are the enemy and the Americans who you held sort of in contempt are now our allies, how well is that going to over will be a very independent ISI.

KELLEY: Real quickly, Mr. Isby, United Arab Emirates also cutting ties today with Afghanistan. Are they starting to stand on their own? And then how much of a defense could they really come up with in this fight?

ISBY: Well, the UAE certainly knows that in the longer sense its main threat is Iran and the United States is what would provide it external security.

The UAE relation with the Taliban was mainly a commercial one. The UAE served as a base for smuggling, mainly of consumer goods, to Afghanistan. That was cut down by the U.N. sanctions.

KELLEY: All right, David Isby, who is an Afghan military specialist, thanks very much for joining us. Appreciate it.

ISBY: Thank you.

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