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CNN Saturday Morning News

A Look at Afghanistan's Neighbors

Aired October 06, 2001 - 10:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOIE CHEN, CNN ANCHOR: Since the breakup of the Soviet Union a decade ago, three nations, which share a border with Afghanistan, have faced their own struggles. Turkmenistan has more than 450 miles of border with Afghanistan. The Turkmen are mostly Muslim. Turkmenistan's president says that he would consider ground and airspace use by the United States but his nation would remain officially neutral.

Uzbekistan, the neighbor that has a border with Afghanistan only 85 miles long, but there are, as you noted here, some key military bases there. Uzbekistan's president denies reports that at least one U.S. cargo plane has already landed there. And he says his country hasn't made any commitments to a joint military effort.

And Tajikistan has the highest poverty level of the former Soviet states with a 749-mile border with Afghanistan. The Tajik president says that country is prepared to work the United States but there are no specifics set yet.

Joining us, now Martha Brill Olcott of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her expertise is in this region.

Martha, if you could talk to us about what would be useful to the United States. We've heard a little bit about Uzbekistan but which country would be the most useful in the future?

MARTHA BRILL OLCOTT, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT: I think Uzbekistan would really be the most useful long-term ally and even short-term ally for the U.S. in this region because of the large number of military bases there, because of the good year-round access that Uzbekistan has to Afghanistan and because Uzbekistan was the military center of Central Asia. It was the center of the USSR military command for Central Asia and as one of the major border areas.

CHEN: Well, for the political -- on the political stability question for all three of the Central Asian nations, would any of those have play in what happens in Afghanistan not only in the near term but in the longer term?

OLCOTT: Well, the question of political stability is really a relative one in the Central Asian region. All three states are stable and unstable to varying degrees. I think Uzbekistan is probably the most stable one. And the Karimov regime could endure any of the shocks of cooperation with the U.S. in a military effort that it might create for him domestically.

The Tajik regime is by far the most fragile. Tajikistan has had a bloody civil war in '92 and '93. And there was a treaty of conciliation or an agreement of reconciliation only as recently as 1997. So that economy and that population is still really suffering the shocks of this civil war

They are also the country that is most vulnerable to a large refugee flow from Afghanistan. That Tajik-Afghan border is very, very porous. And there have been about 12,000 refugees even before September 11. About 12,000 refugees were stranded on an island between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, not being let in by the Tajik. A refugee flow there would really be destabilizing politically and not just a humanitarian disaster.

CHEN: Martha, thank you very much.

OLCOTT: Thank you.

CHEN: A little bit of insight into all of what is going on in Central Asia and the land map as it stands before the U.S. and its planning. Thanks very much.

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