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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview With Marc Ginsberg

Aired December 08, 2001 - 08:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JEANNE MESERVE, CNN ANCHOR: In the Middle East Israel unleashes another freeze on attack in Gaza. Israeli helicopters bombarded buildings in Rafa housing Palestinian military intelligence and special forces. No injuries are reported as the buildings were evacuated. Witnesses say the missiles blew large holes in the roofs, and toppled some walls.

The missile attack came just hours after a new round of security talks brokered by U.S. envoys. Yesterday Israeli warplanes bombed the Palestinian Authority's main police headquarters in Gaza City, wounding at least 18 people there.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is responding to Israel's demands to stop the terrorism. In a rare interview on Israeli TV yesterday, Arafat said he was ready to implement a list of steps laid out by the United States. Those steps go beyond arrests and include a crackdown on weapons.

For more on this, I'm joined by Middle East analyst Marc Ginsberg. He also is a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco.

Thanks so much for coming in.

MARC GINSBERG, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Good morning, Jeanne.

MESERVE: What do you make of these latest statements from Yasser Arafat?

GINSBERG: Well, they're a step in the right direction but we have a gulf here between what the Israeli perception is -- that is, they want Arafat to round up the leading Hamas leaders. There's about 37 on their list that they've handed over -- both General Zinni and Prime Minister -- Foreign Minister Peres has handed the list over to Mr. Arafat.

Mr. Arafat has largely rounded up the low level operatives of Hamas and not the leadership and that's where the -- where the problem is at this point.

MESERVE: But he seems to be making a commitment to do that in this television interview.

GINSBERG: For the time being. I think the pressure on him has been intense. Clearly the Israelis have sent a signal to him with the attacks -- after the attacks -- the terrorist attacks in Israel that they are going to give him this last chance. And that last chance is to in effect put in jail those suspects who are the leadership of Hamas.

The problem is -- is as soon as he went into Gaza to begin doing this there were demonstrations in the streets, there were riots that erupted both in the West Bank and in Gaza. So it shows that his authority to fulfill the demands of the United States and Israel are limited.

MESERVE: And he is under intense pressure from the U.S. as well as from the Israelis, is he not?

GINSBERG: He sure is. And the question is where or not that pressure is going to be sufficient to fulfill the need to be -- lay the groundwork for resumption of negotiations. I have serious doubts whether or not this commitment is going to be a commitment that he can continue to be fulfilled without help from the outside particularly from Arab states as well as from the United Nations and others.

MESERVE: Before we leave the matter of this interview he did with Israeli television he's quoted as having said something else. When he was asked about the U.S. he said, "Who cares about the Americans?" And this was Israeli television. He said, "They are on your side." What do we make of that?

GINSBERG: Well, the United States essentially told him in not uncertain terms after the terrorist attacks last Saturday and Sunday in Israel that the Sharon government essentially has carte blanch to deal with the terrorism arising from the West Bank and from Gaza.

The Israelis interpret this as indeed a carte blanch except they have not targeted Arafat personally, they have not targeted the Palestinian leadership. What they essentially though are coming to the conclusion is that if he does not crack down he's increasingly irrelevant.

They took out his helicopters and they are undermining his offices for a reason. They're going to give him a one way ticket out of the West Bank if he doesn't fulfill these commitments and demands of the Americans and the Israelis.

MESERVE: You mentioned the turmoil on the streets in the West Bank and Gaza. Is there a potential for a Palestinian civil war here?

GINSBERG: Absolutely. Indeed the question it really comes down to is whether or not Mr. Arafat, who's caught somewhat between a rock and a hard place -- on the one hand the Israelis are 100 percent convinced that he has the authority to arrest Hamas leadership and to end the terrorism. He, himself, claims that he doesn't have sufficient ability to do that. And there's a threat that a civil war will break out between his leadership and his forces in their efforts to arrest these Hamas leaders.

MESERVE: What if Arafat no longer is able to retain control? What if he is toppled, in essence, from leadership? What does that mean for the Israelis and for the U.S.? I've heard two points of view -- one is that may be a good thing, the other is: He's the last best hope for peace.

GINSBERG: Well, indeed Mr. Arafat is the leader of the Palestinian people but the fact remains is that on the one hand the Israelis are increasingly convinced that he is unable to lead the Palestinians into a durable peace treaty with the Israelis.

MESERVE: But what's the option for them? What's the alternative?

GINSBERG: In some respects they're saying, Better that we have a final resolution of who is going to lead the Palestinian people. And therefore we deal with the consequences to continue -- than to continue the indecisiveness of not having a peace treaty because he's unwilling to make these negotiations. And if it's Hamas or others who take over the West Bank, well then we will deal with it militarily. That's the way they're beginning to think.

MESERVE: Now you mentioned that there may be a role here for other Arab states. There may be a role even for the Europeans. Can you flesh out what you're talking about there?

GINSBERG: What I'm suggesting is that back several decades ago the Arab League decided and delegated tot he Palestinian leadership the decision over how they are going to negotiate a final settlement with the Israelis. I'm recommending that the Arab League is going to have to step up to the plate -- Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and others -- and say to the Palestinians, "Look, the Israelis put a very viable peace proposal on the table at Camp David 16 months ago. you are going to have to now make an unequivocal decision whether that's acceptable or not. We believe you should accept it."

They should have stepped up to the plate before. They have to overt a larger regional war . It's up to them now to do this and it's up to our European allies to put pressure on those Arabs to do what is necessary. And the United States as part of our coalition building should be putting pressure on our Europeans to do that.

MESERVE: Marc Ginsberg -- thanks much for your insight into this very tumultuous situation.

GINSBERG: Thank you, Jeanne.

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