Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview With Fareed Zakaria, James Hoge

Aired December 22, 2001 - 11:18   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: After Afghanistan, what countries are next on the list of possible targets in the War on Terrorism? Joining us from New York to discuss this today is Fareed Zakaria of "Newsweek" magazine, who oversees the magazine's overseas editions, and James Hoge. He is editor of "Foreign Affairs" magazine and editor of the book "How did this Happen: Terrorism and the New War."

Gentlemen, thank you very much for coming in and sharing time with us today. I could tell you, on a personal note, I've been reading your work, both of you, for a long time and I've appreciated it for a long time as well.

But first of all, let's talk about this idea of the war, the next phase of it actually going to another country. Does it necessarily have to go to another country, Fareed?

FAREED ZAKARIA, "NEWSWEEK" MAGAZINE: Leon, I think we're going to be in Afghanistan for a while, because let's remember the purpose of this campaign was to cripple al Qaeda. And in terms of getting the top leadership of al Qaeda and crippling the brains, we haven't yet done that well.

We've done very well at overthrowing the Taliban, unseating the government, but in terms of getting bin Laden, his chief associates, that's a long process that's going to involve intelligence, counter- terrorism, and it's mostly going to be in and around Afghanistan and Pakistan.

So we'll be there for a while, I think.

HARRIS: Do you agree with that, Jim? Is that the way you see it as well?

JAMES HOGE, "FOREIGN AFFAIRS" MAGAZINE: Yes, I do. I think we have been quite successful in destroying the training camps and the logistical organization of al Qaeda, but we know there are all these independent cells around the world, some of which can operate on their own, I think in a less coordinated and sophisticated level than before.

Now, the poster boy for this war, Donald Rumsfeld, has indicated that we're going to take a look at Somalia, that we've put pressure on Yemen, and perhaps on the Sudan, places where there may be secondary al Qaeda cell operations underway. That, however, I think is not going to involve major military activity, more pressure for them to cleanup their houses and if they don't, we'll come in and help them do it, hopefully by request.

The big question is when and on what terms is Iraq on the agenda.

HARRIS: Well let me ask you this, before we get to Iraq. Has sufficient light been cast upon the situation within countries like Saudi Arabia where there is enough outside pressure on them now to actually effect some changes there, that would prevent these sorts of things from ballooning or mushrooming outside of their borders?

ZAKARIA: Well, I think 9/11 has been a wakeup call for Saudi Arabia, because they've recognized that this sort of flirtation with fundamentalism has created a kind of Frankenstein's monster.

But the thing to remember fortunately, or unfortunately, is we don't have a lot of leverage with Saudi Arabia. We don't give them foreign aid and, in fact, they have some leverage with us because of their powerful position in the world of oil.

So I think we're trying, I think they have made some recognitions themselves, but fundamentally I'd say we haven't pushed them very hard and we probably should push them a little harder.

HARRIS: Now, Jim, let's get back to you, your idea about Iraq. Whenever this topic does come up, Iraq is generally the first country that is mentioned, but when it is, there isn't necessarily consensus that there actually should be some action against Iraq. Why is that?

HOGE: Well there certainly isn't consensus and there are several reasons why, one of which is that any military activity against Iraq is far more complicated than it would be against Afghanistan.

Secondly, there is a lot of opposition, both among our allies in Europe within the Arab world and elsewhere in the world against an overt invasion or attack on Iraq.

I would keep in mind, however, that Condoleezza Rice, who we now know is so close to the President's thinking, has said we don't need September 11 to justify considering Iraq an evil and dangerous place.

Now that doesn't tell you that there's an attack imminent. It does tell me that there's efforts within the administration to find a more successful effort to get a regime change at some point.

HARRIS: OK, let's talk about another region that really to many people is just coming into the radar screen here, Southeast Asia. Is Southeast Asia more likely to be a site where there actually would be some sort of combat conflict there before Iraq even, do you think?

ZAKARIA: I think the conflict in Southeast Asia is quite small. The group in the Philippines that we're now helping the Philippine government go after, Abu Sayaaf, is a nasty bunch of characters.

HARRIS: Who have actually been holding hostages, American hostages for some time as a matter of fact.

ZAKARIA: That's right. They've been holding hostages. They seem to have had some role in training Ramsey Usef, the man who was convicted of the '93 bombing of the World Trade Center.

But it's a small group. We don't know how large, but it appears to be no more than hundreds to maybe 1,000. Similarly, in Indonesia, you have a few people. None of these have the kind of global reach that the President really talked about.

I think they're important to do, but they're not going to take an enormous military effort on our part, I think.

HOGE: Leon, I think the most important U.S. objective in South or Southeast Asia is to try and keep Pakistan both whole, not let it break up; and secondly, to support the Musharraf government in containing radical Islamism there and the attacks within or - within India by radical groups from Pakistan over the Kashmir issue.

I think if Pakistan were to break up, or to go radical Islamist, we would have a major security problem in that region.

HARRIS: All right, the final question, and Fareed I'd like you to answer this one because you've written about this extensively. That's what I've read in your Newsweek pieces in the last month, last couple of months I should say.

From this experience here, do you foresee any permanent changes coming in the Arab-Muslim world and its relationships both within that world and with its other, the other people in the world it has to deal with, like the U.S.? Permanent changes to come?

ZAKARIA: I hope so. I think that what people in the Arab world are beginning to recognize is that they have a lot of political systems, economic systems that are just not working, and that are breeding a kind of frustration that is winding up supporting terrorism.

I think it's made the Arab world look at itself in the mirror. Now you never know how these self-examinations go. The Arab world has tended to blame others for its miseries, rather than look hard at its own troubles.

But I think it has had an effect of making people wonder whether they should really be trying much harder to reform themselves, reform their societies and make Islam more compatible with modernity in the way that Hamid Karzai, the new President of Afghanistan, is trying.

I think that the men of the future in the Arab world will be men like Karzai, the King of Jordan, the King of Morocco, who are trying to move their societies forward rather than staying trapped in the past and blaming Israel and the United States for all their woes.

HARRIS: Yes. Gentlemen, I would love to sit down over lunch and just discuss this with you for hours on end, but we can't, got to go.

ZAKARIA: You're buying I take it?

HARRIS: OK, you got it. It's on me, Fareed Zakaria, Jim Hoge, thank you very much, appreciate it. Take care gentlemen. Happy holidays to you.

ZAKARIA: Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com