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CNN Saturday Morning News

Tensions Rise Along the Indian/Pakistani Border

Aired December 29, 2001 - 08:39   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Tensions are building along the border between India and Pakistan. The military deployment along both sides of the border is described as the biggest one in 15 years. There are fears of war between these two U.S. allies, both with nuclear weapons. Thousands of people living in the border region are evacuating and we have more now from our Islamabad bureau chief, Ash- Har Quraishi, who joins us now by telephone -- Ash-Har, what can you tell us?

ASH-HAR QURAISHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kyra, it looks like both governments are in some sort of a holding pattern, both looking to the other to make a move. We heard from the government today, basically saying what they've been saying since yesterday, that they regret the moves that India has made both on the military front and on the diplomatic front.

India, they say, has moved massive troops to the border. In response, Pakistan has done the same.

India also issued sanctions against Pakistan, restricting air flight as well as cutting the staff of its embassy in Islamabad. Islamabad has reacted the same way. So it's been tit for tat so far.

Now, some people are looking to a regional summit in Nepal next week to, in hopes that these two leaders, the prime minister of India and the president of Pakistan, to sort of try and de-escalate the situation and bring tensions down.

What we have heard from the president of Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf, he said that he's willing to engage in any talks with Prime Minister Vajpayee, although Pakistan is not willing to extend the invitation. So it's a situation right now where we're just waiting for each government to react and the other one to react in response -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Ash-Har, meanwhile, there's quite a buildup of troops. Can you set the scene for us visually?

QURAISHI: Well, what we're hearing at this point is that this is a massive troop movement. The Pakistan government has not been specific about the number of troops that they have deployed, but they're saying that all of its troops are in a defensive mode right now. We've heard that artillery has been moved to the border. The air force has been put on high alert. They've moved out of their main bases to auxiliary bases, which is something that they do in preparation for warfare.

So it's very tense right now. It's a huge buildup. It's something that neither country has seen in years and it's something that people are watching.

Now, another thing that's happening is that they're making very small moves diplomatically as to not sort of aggravate the situation militarily. Another move that's come out of Pakistan today is that it's banned all Indian television channels off its air waves today, saying that they just present propaganda from India.

So that's another small move that Pakistan has made and they're just trying to avoid, at this point, any military conflict, although both sides say they're ready for that -- Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Ash-Har Quraishi, thank you so much.

And let's continue our discussion now and talk about what are the chances of a disastrous miscalculation on either side of the India- Pakistan dispute.

Well, for some insights on the situation now and some historical context, we turn to two leading journalists from both regions. Chidu Rajghatta is the foreign editor for the "Times of India" and Nayyar Zaidi is a Pakistani journalist who reports for the "Daily Jang" newspaper. Gentlemen, thanks so much for being with us.

Well, Ash-Har has mentioned, he did mention in his report the possibility of talks. Let's start with that, and are talks a reality here? Nayyar, why don't we begin with you?

NAYYAR ZAIDI, PAKISTANI JOURNALIST: At this point I don't think talks are a reality because India has, there was a statement by the Indian interior minister that time has come for a decisive war against Pakistan and to settle certain issues for all times. Pakistan is certainly ready for talks. Talks can take place if the United States exerts pressure and explains to India that U.S. statements about anti- terrorism efforts should not be misunderstood as a green light for India to attack Pakistan.

PHILLIPS: Chidu?

CHIDU RAJGHATTA, "TIMES OF INDIA": Well, I don't see talks on the cards simply because what the Indians are asking for is demonstrable, verifiable action by Pakistan against terrorists and terrorist camps. You can't talk to somebody who is in constant denial. Now, remember, this whole episode started with the attack on the Indian parliament and the moment that happened the Pakistanis said oh, this was done by the Indians themselves. It was done by the Indian intelligence agencies. And there is this constant denial in, in fact, not just Pakistan, in the Islamic world.

When the World Trade Center, when September 11 happened, it was the Mossad which did it, it was the U.S. which did it. So unless they really own up and actually address some fundamental problems in their own society and not just in the government, we are going nowhere. Just remember, there is a fundamental difference in perception between India and the United States on Pakistan. The U.S. sees Pakistan as the solution. India sees Pakistan as the problem, the epicenter of terrorism directed not just against India, but against the whole world. If you look at the major terrorist strikes across the world in the last decade, all of them, the people who perpetrated it came out of Pakistan and went back to Pakistan.

Mir Aimal Kansi killed two people outside CIA, went to Pakistan. Ramzi Yousef blows up World Trade Center, goes back to Pakistan. The guys in Kenya, Tanzania blow up the embassy, go back to Pakistan.

What is it about Pakistani soil or air or water that fosters so much terrorism? And this is a very fundamental issue. Even the shoe bomber, I mean indoctrination in Pakistan. Osama bin Laden heads to Pakistan. They don't go to Iran or Iraq or Libya or Syria or any of the usual suspects.

So there is a very fundamental problem here which needs to be addressed.

PHILLIPS: Nayyar, how do you respond to that, that Pakistan is a refuge for terrorists?

ZAIDI: Well, we will need expert analysis about water and soil analysis. But let me tell you, he talks about Mir Aimal Kansi and the other guy, but he fails to point out that these guys went to Pakistan but then were turned over by Pakistan to the United States for trial. Pakistan cannot help if certain of its citizens or other people living in Pakistan or coming to Pakistan commit terrorism. All Pakistan can do is that if it gets hold of them it returns them.

Now, the important thing at this point is that India sees its most important foreign policy plank as collapsing, which is cross border terrorism. President Musharraf has taken tangible steps during the last two months by changing his intelligence chief, reorganizing his military and he has demonstrated to the satisfaction of the United States that the government of Pakistan is committed to the anti- terrorism effort.

If it was not for Pakistan providing bases and logistics support, the U.S. would could not have intervened in Afghanistan. So now it is interesting that now that General Musharraf is demonstrating his commitment, that now Indians cannot wait for even a few months for him to take things under control and they are planning to attack.

This is because they know that they will run out of this terrorism issue in the next few months and will not have any pretext to attack Pakistan. So they want to attack Pakistan while they have some moral pretext.

Now, the reason Pakistanis said that the attack on the parliament was perhaps by Indian intelligence services themselves because basically they never got inside the parliament. They were in the grounds of the parliament. All five people died and symbolically, let me make a final point, symbolically Indians are saying that an attack on the parliament grounds is an attack on democracy.

Well, let me also tell you that if there is an attack on Pakistan, it should be considered an attack on the United States, because Pakistan is the most important national security asset of the United States and the Western democratic world at this time.

PHILLIPS: Well, there is...

ZAIDI: So if Pakistan is attacked, the U.S. is attacked.

PHILLIPS: Well, there is definitely a big concern with regard to nuclear weapons. That is for sure. Not only in both of your countries, but also in the United States. Let's talk about that for a moment. And Chidu, maybe we can start with you, and do you think that nuclear weapons could be used here, that this could become a very scary reality?

RAJGHATTA: Well, the fact is if nuclear weapons are going to be used, they're first going to be used by one side. India has a stated policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. So if there is going to be a nuclear, nukes involved at all, it has to start with Pakistan.

Speaking of nuclear weapons, let me again go back to this whole nuclear policy. The United States goes around the world looking for nuclear rogue states. They look at North Korea, they look at Iraq. It turns out that the biggest nuclear rogue state is Pakistan.

I mean only over the last few weeks you had two top officials of the Pakistani atomic establishment drawing diagrams for bin Laden. It wasn't the North Koreans who were helping bin Laden and al Qaeda look at nuclear weapons.

So this whole business of Pakistan being an ally against terrorism has to be reexamined. Sure, there are sober, moderate elements in Pakistan. But fundamentally, there is a very fundamental problem with Pakistan and it goes back to its whole history, its militaristic history. The Pakistanis love to talk about Jammu and Kashmir and how there should be self-determination in Jammu and Kashmir. But here's a country which has been under a military dictatorship for half its life. I mean it has an unelected leader who took over in a coup two years ago and to talk about self-determination and plebiscite and referendum doesn't square.

And its nuclear program is really beginning to come apart now. I mean the world is beginning to see. I mean two top scientists of the Pakistani establishment in cahoots with bin Laden and al Qaeda doesn't speak very well of its program.

PHILLIPS: Nayyar, final thoughts as we wrap this up?

ZAIDI: Well, I don't think that these were the top scientists of the Pakistan atomic program, number one. Number two, drawing diagrams for somebody doesn't mean they can build nuclear weapons. This is all propaganda.

What I feel is that a power that is conventional in terms of conventional arms is powerful will always say that it will not use nuclear weapons first because it knows that it can prevail through conventional arms. It is the weaker country which cannot match the conventional fight which will be forced to use nuclear weapons.

Take the NATO example in Europe. The United States had told Russians that if they invaded Western Europe, the U.S. will be the first one to use nuclear weapons because the U.S. could not match tank to tank and soldier to soldier.

So here there is a danger. If India attacks Pakistan and Pakistan feels overwhelmed, the Pakistani foreign minister has said that we cannot rule out the possibility of nuclear weapons. So it is for the United States to exert maximum pressure at this time on India to restrain and allow this U.S. anti-terrorism effort to be completed, and at the same time allow Pakistan and General Musharraf the time to take measures inside Pakistan that may address some of the Indian concerns.

PHILLIPS: Nayyar Zaidi, Chidu Rajghatta, I wish we could continue this. It's so hard to solve something like this within five minutes. It's nearly impossible talking about terrorists and Kashmir and political roles. But we appreciate your insights and thanks so much for being with us this morning.

CHIDU: Oh, thanks for having us.

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