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CNN Saturday Morning News
Is bin Laden Dead?
Aired January 19, 2002 - 08:12 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, time now to get some perspective on the military aspect of the war against terrorism.
Joining us from Oakbrook, Illinois this morning, military analyst Brigadier General David Grange.
General, good to see you again.
BRIG. GEN. DAVID GRANGE (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the hunt for Osama bin Laden. General Pervez Musharraf yesterday telling CNN exclusively he firmly believes that bin Laden is dead and not necessarily because of bombs, but because of kidney failure. Do you have any thoughts on that one way or another?
GRANGE: Well, I don't have any intelligence to say that he is dead or is not. I think one point that I think is significant, that if he is dead and he didn't die from fighting, if he didn't die from the war, then he's not going to be a martyr and I think that would hurt him considerably in the face of his followers.
O'BRIEN: Interesting. I suppose that al Qaeda, Taliban, whatever remains of it, could spin it to martyrdom regardless.
GRANGE: I don't know. I just don't think that the way they interpret the Koran and how he would die and what he orders his people to do to die to become martyrs and receive all the benefits of that situation when it happens, he would not fit that category. So he would not be a martyr.
O'BRIEN: All right. I don't know, you had an opportunity, I guess, to see General Franks with his briefing yesterday. What else struck you about the current situation? The statement which, of course, sticks out in my mind is Tommy Franks saying the that world is not a large enough place for Osama bin Laden to hide, the entire world. Would you go along with that?
GRANGE: Well, I believe that that's a true statement. It's very difficult today. The world has really become much smaller because of global communications and the ability to put surveillance around the world, reporting back. Things happen very quickly. And so almost like the news, the 24 hour news cycle. So it's very difficult to hide today. And I think if he is still alive, eventually the information will become available to get him.
O'BRIEN: General, still, I always go back to the story of Eric Rudolph, the suspected Olympic Park bomber, who supposedly fled into the mountains of the Nantahala Forest in North Carolina. He still remains at large, not discovered, maybe alive, maybe dead, but nevertheless not discovered. It makes one wonder if Osama bin Laden could end up remaining elusive for some period which is hard to foresee.
GRANGE: Well, that's true. I mean he could remain, he could hide for quite a long time if he does, if he's not active. The point is if he starts trying to operate, some type of signals, whether it's by messenger or by radio or telephone, some type of signal has to come out for him to operate. And once that happens, then he starts exposing himself to the ability to friendly forces to pick him up.
O'BRIEN: The other thing that struck me in General Franks' briefing was talking about the special operations and intelligence personnel as they methodically go through these suspected Al Qaeda locations in caves or whatever and finding literally file cabinets full of intelligence. I'm curious if that, you know, does an operation like al Qaeda document everything such that these file folders would have a treasure trove of information for intelligence officials?
GRANGE: Well, you know, they have operational security procedures just like militaries do, I'm sure. And -- but sometimes people make mistakes. They don't follow procedures within an organization. And there's a lot of secret writing, codes and things like this. But, of course, our government and others that support our efforts have the capability to break those codes, to break into that secret writing and put little pieces together that give us a better picture.
So, yes, that stuff is available and it takes a long, detailed time to analyze it. But information that's relevant to the operation does come about from doing that.
O'BRIEN: When you say it takes a long, detailed time, the concern is that that information might very well lead us to suspected future attacks. How quickly can we move in this case? Do we have the apparatus and language skills and understanding of al Qaeda to decipher that in a timely way?
GRANGE: You know, you're hitting on a great point. The timeliness of intelligence to go after targets most, most often that are fleeting, that is an issue. And a lot of times we're just behind going after someone because it isn't fast enough. And that's a great point. And that requires someone making a decision very quickly the best he can from the information he has. And that's what these commanders like General Franks get paid for, that you don't have a hundred percent but you have 80 percent. Do you go for it or don't you? And it's tough, but you have to keep on the offensive and try. O'BRIEN: All right, General Dick Grange, you are not dismissed just yet. We invite you to go get a cup of coffee and some eggs. Put it on CNN, if you like. And in about an hour and 15 minutes time, you're going to be back, along with Staff Sergeant Keni Thomas, an impressive young man who was on the ground in Mogadishu for the real life story of the "Black Hawk Down."
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