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CNN Saturday Morning News

What Will Result From Powell's Mideast Trip?

Aired April 06, 2002 - 09:37   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Deadly gun battles in the West Bank and Gaza continue as Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares for his trip to the Middle East. Some wonder if his visit will push both sides to move toward peace, and also who bears more responsibility for the current situation in the Mideast, former President Clinton or President Bush?

We're taking your e-mails and your phone calls.

Joining me from Washington, "TIME" magazine's Michael Weisskopf, and Middle East analyst Mamoun Fandy, and in Jerusalem, CNN's Chris Burns.

Gentlemen, thank you very much for being here.

Well, let's get right to the e-mail, shall we? This one comes from Chapel Hill, North Carolina, Pat Neal. "Apparently President Clinton was about 95 percent successful in brokering a peace agreement at Camp David. Do we know what the sticking points were that caused Arafat to walk away from this agreement?"

It's a good question. That's -- Camp David has come up a lot in the past couple of hours. Michael, you want to start?

MICHAEL WEISSKOPF, "TIME" MAGAZINE: The main sticking point was the withdrawal from territories the Israelis had been occupying, and whether or not Mr. Arafat was satisfied with the extent of that. It broke down at the last minute.

Interestingly, President Bush now is saying that he thought that that negotiation triggered the intifada following the breakup of those talks in late 2000, which was the first time that he made that kind of statement.

PHILLIPS: Mamoun, what do you think?

MAMOUN FANDY, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: I think they broke down over three issues. The first one is basically the issue of Jerusalem, which is extremely sensitive, that Arafat cannot deliver in Jerusalem because this is something that relates to the 1 billion Muslim throughout the world. And second, the issue of the return of refugees that are Palestinian refugees that were driven out of their homes in the '48 and whether they have the right, and the numbers of these people who will come back. And also third issue, was -- which was the border issues, which is extremely sensitive, because the Israelis wanted to maintain certain positions on the border between Israel and Jordan that will make sure that the emerging Palestinian state will become more or less demilitarized.

PHILLIPS: Chris Burns, I'm going to direct this e-mail to you. "Why does the president and the U.N. put up with Israel ignoring orders to pull out and stop their advances into the occupied territories?"

CHRIS BURNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is a good question, that the -- Washington has said that they believe that Yasser Arafat is not doing enough to control terrorist attacks against Israel. However, the -- at the same time, the United States has been fighting a war against terror, and it's a bit difficult for Washington to say, Well, you can't fight your war against terror while we do ourselves. So there's a bit of that as well.

It does seem that President Bush is trying to give Ariel Sharon some time to try to get control of the situation, but at the same time, of course, obviously Washington is facing wider repercussions in this. That is why Bush is acting now, because it is going beyond the Israeli-Palestinian question, it is going to the Arab world now. And there are moderate Arab states that are potentially destabilized if this does continue.

PHILLIPS: And Mamoun, you mentioned Egypt as a very crucial country in all of this. Why don't you talk a little bit about that?

FANDY: Well, Egypt is very central to us in the United States. Egypt is our closest friend there, who has been there, Egypt was very central, the first state to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, when President Sadat signed this deal with -- under the Carter administration and with the prime minister of Israel, Menachem Begin.

Egypt also sort of shepherd the whole Arab world into peace. It took us to Madrid in a way. And also helped the Jordanians to sign a peace treaty.

Egypt is in many ways is a trend-setter in the Middle East, and whatever the Egyptians will expect, I think the Arabs, even reluctantly, will come along even after some time, although Egypt signed the peace deal with Israel '79, nonetheless we saw in Beirut all the Arab states recognizing Israel in the Arab League summit, and supporting the Saudi initiative.

So Egypt is really instrumental, and we cannot afford to -- any kind of destabilization in Egypt, because now if you've seen the news recently, Egyptians are very angry. There are demonstrations by the hundred -- by the tens of thousands throughout major Egyptian cities.

And I think that kind of heat could create problems for a moderate and a very close friend of the United States, that's President Mubarak. So the regional stability is very much contingent on what happens in Egypt, and the Egyptians made their sentiments very clear in letters that President Mubarak sent to President Bush saying that the United States should do something, otherwise this whole issue of -- will not be confined within the Palestinian territories, it could spill over and influence the general stability and the balance of power in the region.

PHILLIPS: Let's take a phone call. Youssef on the line from Maryland. Go ahead, Youssef.

CALLER: Is it really fair to compare what the Israeli army doing to the civilian population with what the U.S. army doing to -- in Afghanistan? After all, the U.S. army is not committing any human rights violations at all. So isn't comparing what the two are doing, unfair for the United States armed forces? Thank you.

PHILLIPS: Michael. Thank you, Youssef.

WEISSKOPF: I think the common denominator there is unprovoked acts of terrorism on civilian populations. And here you have Palestinian terrorists strapping bombs on themselves, showing up in shopping centers and Passover seders and crowded public places, blowing themselves up and taking others with them.

And this is what the administration in this country feels is compelling in comparison to the flying -- the flight of aircraft into buildings, such as we experienced here on September 11 when many mill -- when many thousands of Americans who were civilians died.

PHILLIPS: Gentlemen, I'm going to ask you to stand by. We're going to take a quick break and continue our discussion. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: And we're continuing our discussion in the crisis in the Middle East. We're taking calls, we're reading your e-mails with our three guests this morning, and that's "TIME" magazine's Michael Weisskopf, Middle East analyst Mamoun Fandy, and our -- in Jerusalem, our own Chris Burns.

Gentlemen, we'll get right to the e-mails once again, this one coming from James. "How can the U.S. justify ignoring a leader, Arafat, who was elected by the people? Do we believe we can remove leaders of other countries just because we do not approve of the way they operate?"

Michael?

WEISSKOPF: There's no attempt to remove Mr. Arafat. It's a question of who is a suitable negotiating partner. President Bush is -- seems to be giving him one last chance, although a little bit begrudgingly, because he has reflected his own disappointment with Mr. Arafat's ability to control terrorists from his own camp in the past.

But there's no effort to remove him. As a matter of fact, the Israelis, when the Israelis have suggested it, even with a one-way ticket, the United States has backed away from that. PHILLIPS: Chris, what impact is General Zinni having in the region, and how effective is the meeting with Arafat?

BURNS: Well, Kyra, that's a very good question. He did have that 90-minute meeting yesterday in Arafat's compound that was virtually, virtually destroyed by Israeli forces in the last few days. And the question is, really, is it having any effect? Well, as we're seeing today, the fighting is raging on. Dozens are reported dead.

So in any short term, there really doesn't seem to be an effect. However, it does seem -- it is an apparent effort at laying the groundwork for Secretary Powell's visit next week. There are hopes that perhaps he could arrange some kind of a cease-fire.

So that -- Zinni -- In fact, I think what would we probably be more disruptive is if Zinni leaves. That would be an essentially Washington throwing up its hands and saying, you know, We can't do, we can't deal with this.

So Zinni really has choice but to be there. Whether he's effective or not probably at this point doesn't really make any difference, he has to be there no matter what and try to encourage some kind of exchange, whatever it may be, verbal exchange, that perhaps eventually might drown out the gunfire. But not any time soon.

PHILLIPS: Adam from Minnesota has this question. "We are constantly bombarded by claims that Arafat was offered 95 percent of the West Bank and Gaza. Would you please explain to viewers exactly what was offered?"

Mamoun?

FANDY: I mean, it's really a very difficult to say what was offered, because you get -- it really was told what he was offered, but we've never seen that offer. It was not written, it was basically a statement, general statements and general outlines, and there are both sides on those issues, even within the members of the Clinton administration. Some of them said there was a generous offer, others said, Well, there was no offer at all.

So in many ways, I think the best thing is that to have this offer out and let people see what it was. Thus far, it's all speculations.

PHILLIPS: On the phone, Jerry from Oklahoma. Go ahead, Jerry.

CALLER: Yes, how would you expect Arafat to respond in Arabic or any other language to the fact that most of the terrorist groups in Israel and the West Bank were to not stop fighting the cause regardless?

PHILLIPS: Michael?

WEISSKOPF: He's -- Mr. Arafat suggested all along he doesn't have total control over these terrorist acts. However, in past weeks, those taking responsible for actions can be traced directly to Mr. Arafat, and now the Israelis claim to have documents, the authenticity of which is disputed by the Palestinian side, showing a financial relationship between the authority and some of these terrorists.

PHILLIPS: We did, we reported that a few days ago, I saw that. There was someone from the IDF, the Israeli Defense Force, on with those documents.

Chris Burns, what can you tell us about those and the authenticity?

BURNS: Very much up to question. The Palestinians say they're really -- they are falsified, they have nothing to do with the truth. It -- they say it's no smoking gun, as the Israelis claim that those documents to be. So really up to debate, very, very difficult to nail that down from this standpoint.

There are documents the Israelis are showing, they're allowing the press to film and look at, but are they for real? That can't be proven independently, it's very difficult.

PHILLIPS: Final e-mail here from Maisha in Williamsville. "Is it now time to ask Israel to withdraw from all the settlements first, and then hold Arafat responsible for the peace?"

Let's get all three of you to comment on that.

Mamoun, why don't we start with you?

FANDY: Well, I think we -- the United States already asked the Israelis to withdraw, but I would expect that the Israelis will always try to show at least that they are an independent state and they are not taking orders from Washington. But nonetheless, I think they will heed the request of the United States' president.

It is very important, I think, the issue of withdrawal is very important because this is how you can get both sides to really engage on final status negotiations. I think this time around you have two choices in that conflict, either a Palestinian state or chaos in the whole region.

So we -- the United States, with all its complex interests in the Middle East, cannot afford that chaos. It will engage. And I think Israeli withdrawal is important but probably I do not expect the dismantling of settlement now. Settlements will be final stage negotiations issue.

PHILLIPS: Michael, five seconds or less.

WEISSKOPF: Probably be unreasonable to ask the Israelis to withdraw until they get something in return. And they'll need something more at this point than just verbal commitment.

PHILLIPS: Chris, final thoughts?

BURNS: Well, it's quite possible in previous incursions they have been done over a number of days, and they did pull back. They might do some symbolic pulling back just to improve the air of relations with, with, with Washington. But it doesn't look like there'll be a total pullout next week, that seems far from likely.

PHILLIPS: CNN's Chris Burns in Jerusalem, Mamoun Fandy, Middle East analyst, and also "TIME" magazine's Michael Weisskopf, gentlemen, thank you so much.

FANDY: Thank you.

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