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CNN Saturday Morning News
Interviews With Marc Ginsberg, Mark Perry
Aired May 11, 2002 - 08:14 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Some developments now in the Middle East, where talk of war is mixed with calls for peace. A peace rally is scheduled for today in Tel Aviv. And meanwhile during an appearance on Israeli television, Israeli Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer said plans for a military strike against Gaza have been delayed. Palestinians in Gaza have been preparing for the possibility of an Israeli attack in retaliation for a deadly suicide bombing.
For more insight, we turn to our familiar guests now, U.S. and -- former U.S. Ambassador to Morocco Marc Ginsberg in Washington and from Jerusalem, long time Middle East analyst Mark Perry.
Marc Ginsberg, we'll go with you first this time since we went with Mark Perry first the last time. What do you make of the chances of the Israeli Defense Forces staging some kind of action in Gaza imminently?
MARC GINSBERG, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO MOROCCO: Well, I would say two things. From a military perspective, it's clear that what you're hearing from Israeli television is probably accurate, that there is too many leaks about precisely what the Israeli military was planning to do and clearly Palestinian militants have had more than adequate time to prepare.
But let's try to put a more positive spin on this, Miles. Perhaps, just perhaps, maybe, American diplomacy is having some intended effect on the Israeli government to try to restrain a massive attack on Gaza despite the inclinations of the Israelis to retaliate. And also, as you reported earlier, it may very well have been the case that the suicide bomber may not have come from Gaza.
So there are three elements that are playing into Israeli considerations at this point in time as to whether or not that attack is imminent.
I happen to think that the Israelis feel that they have somewhat of a green light from Washington to proceed with some surgical strike against Gaza. And so I'm not suggesting to you that it may not happen. I'm just saying that the Israelis have three additional considerations to consider now.
O'BRIEN: Mark Perry, would you agree with that? Does that assessment sound accurate? MARK PERRY, AUTHOR, "A FIRE IN ZION": Well, that sounds right to me. I think Marc Ginsberg is right about this. I would only add a little bit of emphasis. I think that the pressure from Washington was a lot less than we think. I think that Marc Ginsberg is right, they have a green light. Instead, I think that the Israeli Defense Forces are taking a step back. This is going to be a very difficult operation when or if it comes. It's going to be very costly in terms of Israeli military lives and we are now here in the West Bank on a point of exhaustion. A lot of the troops have to be transferred from the West Bank for that offensive and it takes time.
So this may be a short-lived breathing space. I think that there will be some kind of incursion, but not quite yet.
O'BRIEN: Marc Ginsberg, you mentioned the U.S. that might be coming to bear on all this. How would you rate so far the Bush administration's handling of this crisis? A lot of people are saying it's perhaps a bit ad hoc in the way it's been approached and perhaps too focused on the larger goal of shoring up support to go after Saddam Hussein.
GINSBERG: Well, let's make some key points here. First of all, this administration was totally disengaged, for all intents and purposes, for 11 months. It now, with fits and starts, seems to be engaged, and yet the president seems to have at least embarked on some policy, but no one really knows where it's going.
Just the other day he engaged in what I would call premature presidential rehabilitation of Yasser Arafat and then just a week before that called Sharon a man of peace. I don't think anyone is prepared to accord either of those accolades to either of those gentlemen at this point in time.
But at the same time, it appears as if at least one major monkey is off the administration's back. Reaction from the Arab world, particularly as a result of the current summit that is taking place in Sharmel Sheik (ph) among the Syrian, Saudi and Egyptian presidents, that's taking place this weekend, suggests, perhaps, that these Arabs are getting real with putting some pressure on Arafat while the administration tries to figure out what to do about the disagreements that it has with the Israeli government over how the contours of an Israel-Arab approach to a so-called peace conference will unveil itself.
O'BRIEN: Mark Perry, you are headed to see Yasser Arafat on Monday, you hope, in Ramallah. I am curious, you might want to tell us a little bit about that and what you intend to say to him. But I am curious what sorts of pressure he might respond to from the Arab world.
PERRY: It should be an interesting visit. I have every intention of sitting down with him for a long time and just getting his views on the current situation.
Frankly, he's under tremendous pressure and he's walking a very thin tightrope. If he takes actions that sill satisfy the Palestinian people, he threatens his stature in international eyes and will bring about more U.S. pressure. If he satisfies the U.S., he will lose support on the Palestinian street.
He's in a very, very tough spot and maneuvering out of it, maneuvering out of it effectively is something that he hasn't done too well in the last two weeks. So he's going to be very careful. It will be interesting to hear his views on how he intends to move forward and whether he believes there are prospects for a long-term final settlement to this conflict.
O'BRIEN: Well, Mark Perry, let me ask you this. What advice would you offer him to navigate that tightrope?
PERRY: Well, the one thing I've noticed on the Israeli side, and it's really quite impressive, is they have real, what we call in the United States message discipline. They strategize very clearly and they don't make a step without thinking it through totally and making sure everything is in line.
That needs to be done among the Palestinian leadership. They need to have a goal, a clear goal, and they need to hammer it home every time they get a chance. And I think, frankly, they've underestimated the effect of American public opinion and how important it is.
So when I talk to Mr. Arafat, I'm going to emphasize to him to not forget American public opinion and to continue to say what he has been saying, that he's opposed to these suicide bombings and that he'll take steps to stop them.
O'BRIEN: A little message discipline. Stay on message, as they say.
Marc Ginsberg, let me ask you this, in a final thought here. We talked about what a tightrope Yasser Arafat has to walk. Give us a sense of what Ariel Sharon faces. It is a tightrope, perhaps not as difficult a one to journey, but maybe so. You tell me.
GINSBERG: He has one major domestic political tightrope and that is he is under extreme political pressure from his right-wing, including a potential challenge from former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize control of the Likud Party. Secondly, he's under Israeli public opinion pressure to retaliate for any further suicide bombings. Third, he's also under pressure from the Bush administration to not be as stubborn as he appears to be on putting a vision forward that would make a credible peace conference in the Middle East nothing -- something more than merely interim baby steps that most Arab states will reject and may not participate in.
So he's under all these pressures from the United States, from Israeli public opinion and from his own party at this point.
O'BRIEN: Always on message. Mssrs. Ginsberg and Perry, thank you very much for being with us. We appreciate it. We'll check in with you a little bit later.
PERRY: Sure, Miles.
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