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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interviews With Mark Perry, Marc Ginsberg

Aired June 08, 2002 - 07:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Now to the crisis in the Middle East, where the diplomacy has shifted to this country.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is huddling with President Bush this weekend at Camp David. The discussions are likely to be tough, considering the strong stances on both sides.

Mr. Mubarak told CNN he will press Mr. Bush to move forward on creating a Palestinian state.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

PRES. HOSNI MUBARAK, EGYPT: I'm going to speak about my vision to the president of the United States, just to establish (UNINTELLIGIBLE) states, how to put an end to the (UNINTELLIGIBLE), how to make the whole (UNINTELLIGIBLE) settlements, because settlements is a time bomb. Keeping the settlements and building more settlements is a very dangerous element for the process now and in the future.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Progress is being made. The Arab world now understands they need to be involved in pushing for peace and fighting against the terrorist actions that have -- that make i8t very difficult to achieve a peace.

I still am disappointed in Mr. Arafat's leadership. He needs to, he needs to, he needs to shut off the terrorist activities.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

PHILLIPS: President Mubarak's visit will be followed by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon. He's due to meet with Mr. Bush on Monday.

Well, let's turn now to our Middle East analysts for more insight on the Bush-Mubarak discussions. Joining me from Washington are Marc Ginsberg, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, as well as White House Mideast policy adviser, and Mark Perry, author of several books, including "A Fire in Zion" and "The Israeli-Palestinian Search for Peace."

Good morning, gentlemen.

MARC GINSBERG, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO MOROCCO: Hi, Kyra.

MARK PERRY, AUTHOR, "A FIRE IN ZION": Good morning, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right, let's talk about this front page article in one of the Jerusalem newspapers I found on the Net. Sharon says he going to, quote, "expel" Arafat and is only waiting for the right time.

What exactly does expelling Arafat mean, and is this a good move? Mark Perry?

PERRY: Expelling Arafat means putting him on a plane and getting him out of the country, probably to Tunisia. This is something that Mr. Sharon has wanted to do for a long time, and he's never had his full cabinet behind him. But it now appears that there is a consensus in the Israeli cabinet to do this.

I also heard in a -- I think it was the same report that Mr. Sharon said that if two more terrorist attacks happen, then Arafat's expulsion is guaranteed.

This sounds to me like an invitation for more terrorist bombings. I hate to say that, and it sounds like a very extreme thing to say. But there are enemies of Mr. Arafat inside the Palestinian Authority who would love to see him expelled and would love to recruit Mr. Sharon to do that.

PHILLIPS: Marc Ginsberg, your thoughts.

GINSBERG: Well, putting this into the substantive political context, it appears as if the Bush administration, as well as the Israeli government, are trying very hard to help recruit a new generation of Palestinian leaders. It's clear that Mr. Arafat has used terrorism over the last seven to eight months as an instrumentality of trying to force the Israelis back to the negotiating table to make more concessions than the had been prepared to make before.

And his policy has failed. And therefore his leadership has failed for the Palestinian people. And I'm quite convinced that it would be far more easier for us to put more leverage on Israel to make the concessions necessary to accelerate a process for a Palestinian homeland, and that Mr. Arafat, who has sacrificed so many young Palestinians, now needs to sacrifice his position as president of the Palestinian Authority to give way now to the -- to leaders who are prepared to make the concessions and to engage in a political process, rather than merely to keep complaining about how Israeli tactics are undermining his personal security.

It's time for him to go.

PHILLIPS: Mark Perry, is it impossible, though, to go forward with a peace deal without Arafat?

PERRY: Well, I think that Marc Ginsberg said it right, that the Israelis believe that Mr. Arafat is not capable of making the concessions they want. Frankly, I don't think any Palestinian leader is. What the Palestinians want is 100 percent of the West Bank and Gaza, an end to settlement building. And that will continue whether Mr. Arafat is there or not.

And I think the United States will learn, even if Arafat is expelled, that this so-called new generation of leaders may be even tougher than Arafat, whom Yitzhak Rabin viewed as a moderate.

I think this is a dangerous road to go down, to pick and choose who you're going to negotiate with. There are a lot of reasons for not liking Arafat, but so long as the Palestinian people are behind him, we're going to have to deal with him.

PHILLIPS: All right. Now you have President Bush and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, they're going to meet, get together. They just met a month ago. Now they're meeting again. What's going to differ in this get-together? Marc Ginsberg?

GINSBERG: Well, I'm glad that President Mubarak is here. It's clear that he has decided to reengage more forcefully in helping to accelerate a Arab front to urge this administration to not be tepid any longer in trying to establish the parameters of a peace process in the region that will accelerate the road map to a Palestinian state.

I understand the Israeli government is averse to seeing that as long as security problems reign on the West Bank. But even Mr. Mubarak said in his interview with CNN that those suicide attacks are going to continue because those people who are engaged in those attacks will never, ever accept a Jewish state in Israel, and are always going to be opposed to a settlement.

And that's why I've always believed that they should not have any veto authority over a settlement. And the Egyptians are clearly engaged in the right question. Mr. Mubarak is absolutely correct. It is inconceivable to me how the Israelis can convince the Palestinian people, let alone Arafat or the Arabs, Arab leaders, that they are serious about wanting to see an end to desperation among the Palestinians if they continue to build settlements.

The settlements are an obstacle to this Bush administration's efforts to open up a dialogue and a meaningful political process, and I think the Israelis have got to learn this quickly rather than later.

PHILLIPS: Well, then you have the concern of the extremists. Marc Ginsberg, you brought this up a number of times, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad. Still there is this link and this concern.

Mark Perry, something between that could come out of a meeting between Mubarak and Bush, are these extremists still going to listen to any type of talks for peace?

PERRY: Well, I think the only way to defeat the extremists, and I think Marc Ginsberg is right on this, the only way to really defeat the extremists and to provide the kind of security guarantees that Israel must have is to provide a political program that's meaningful, that has a chance of working, and that won't take 10 years, will take maybe one or two or three years.

And if Mubarak can press President Bush to announce such a program, or at least the beginnings of political talks, if Mr. Bush can deliver Ariel Sharon to the table, I think he has taken a major weapon out of the hands of the terrorists. And this is Mr. Mubarak's strategy. I think it's a good one.

I think it's going to be resisted by Ariel Sharon. It'll be interesting to see what he has to say when he comes to Washington on Monday. But clearly, everyone has decided now that we have to move towards a final settlement and we have to do it very quickly.

PHILLIPS: Mark Perry, I'm noticing you're agreeing with Marc Ginsberg a lot this morning. You two are getting along very well. Do you two ever argue?

PERRY: Oh, yes, we can assure you. There's a lot that we disagree on, and we can give you some evidence of that if you wish. Yes, we can do it.

PHILLIPS: All right, quickly, before I let the both of you go, let's just, real quickly, let's touch on India-Pakistan. Talks were that the situation there was quelling. You've got Rumsfeld in South Asia, everything seemed to be under control. Then we've got reports coming through Indian officials, reports six Indians dead in recent Kashmir violence, and then also this Indian analysts downplaying the spy plane that got shot down by Pakistan.

Both of you quickly, your thoughts on India-Pakistan right now.

PERRY: Well, let me go first. I think that it's still a very volatile situation, but it's not nearly as bad as when Ambassador Ginsberg and I were here last week. I think some of it has been, as you say, quelled. I think that there's some hope for an understanding. It's clear that the Pakistani leader has now made a public statement saying he doesn't want a war. That's a good first step.

But it still is a very volatile situation.

PHILLIPS: Ambassador?

GINSBERG: We need a more effective Bush administration war diplomacy in this region to deal with the underlying disease, which is the situation in Kashmir itself. After Mr. Armitage and Mr. Rumsfeld leave, unless those extremists are -- the Islamic extremists, prompted by al Qaeda and the Taliban, are stopped from infiltrating across the Line of Control, this situation will just reescalate.

We have got to get to the root cause, and that is the problem and fate of Kashmir. And that's where more effective diplomacy's going to be needed after this immediate stand-down occurs.

PHILLIPS: Marc Ginsberg, Mark Perry, once again, thanks for the early-morning get-together.

PERRY: Good seeing you, Kyra.

GINSBERG: Good seeing you, Kyra. PHILLIPS: All right. Thanks, guys.

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