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CNN Saturday Morning News
Interview With Peter Bergen
Aired July 20, 2002 - 08:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk a little bit more about Osama bin Laden with one of the people featured in that except, Peter Bergen, terrorism analyst for CNN, author of the book "Holy War Inc.," an excellent read if you want to know more about Osama bin Laden, if I do say so myself.
Mr. Bergen, good to see you, sir. Can you hear me, Peter?
PETER BERGEN, TERRORISM EXPERT: Oh, yes, I can hear you.
O'BRIEN: Oh, OK. Can we hear him OK?
I believe we have a microphone problem with Mr. Bergen. We're going to take a break, straighten that out and get right back to you. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: All right, we can't say for certain that it was an al Qaeda plot, but the microphone didn't work, now it does.
Peter Bergen in Washington joining us now to talk about Osama bin Laden.
Peter, good to see you.
BERGEN: Good morning, Miles.
O'BRIEN: All right. Excellent communication there.
Since the last time we chatted, which was really, you know, in the months after the attack, we were trying to piece together a lot of things and you were trying to finish your book. And there were still a lot of gaps in our knowledge about Osama bin Laden. What -- any gaps that you've filled since then?
BERGEN: Well, I mean there's a pretty big gap right now, is he alive or his he dead? You know, we've had conflicting reports this week with Watson at the FBI saying he thinks that bin Laden's dead. We had Abdel Bari Atwan of the Arabic newspaper in London saying that he believes that bin Laden is alive, that he's been wounded in the left arm with some shrapnel. So that's kind of an interesting debate that's going on right now.
My view is there's no evidence he's dead so let's presume for the moment that he's alive.
O'BRIEN: All right, what about the, remember that report where he needed kidney dialysis and all that stuff? Did you ascribe to that, one, and do you suppose if he's alive he's getting that sort of treatment?
BERGEN: I think there may be something to the kidney story, but I don't think he has a life threatening condition based on kidney problems. A pretty reliable Pakistani journalist was the guy who broke the story. I've spoken to him directly.
Bin Laden apparently two years ago may have gone to a military hospital in Kabul for some sort of kidney ailment. But I don't think he is in need of sort of daily or weekly dialysis.
O'BRIEN: Well, I would be remiss if I didn't ask you what your gut tells you as to whether he's dead or alive or -- and then we can talk about his relevance after that. Dead or alive, what do you think?
BERGEN: My gut is he's alive.
O'BRIEN: Really? OK.
BERGEN: Yes.
O'BRIEN: Why haven't we heard from him, seen him?
BERGEN: Possibly because he's in bad shape. I mean I think he does have some pretty serious health problems. We talked earlier about this possible shrapnel wound. If you remember the last videotape, Miles, he looked like he was in early '60s. The guy is only 45. He's obviously got some pretty major health problems. They may not be life threatening, but perhaps he doesn't want to show himself looking ill.
Also, of course, if you another video, you do, the chain of custody might open you up to a sort of ability to find out where you are. There may be a security issue.
On the other hand, it is a good question, why haven't we heard from him?
O'BRIEN: You know, and when I think about your interview with bin Laden, which was back in, what, '96 thereabouts?
BERGEN: '97.
O'BRIEN: '97, compared to what we saw in that last video, it's dramatic his health degradation, just very evident. So clearly if he's alive, he's in a bad way.
The question is, I guess, that really matters how relevant is he, alive -- in some ways he might be of more value to his cause dead.
BERGEN: Well, possibly. I mean he would obviously be a martyr if he's dead. But the first, the most obvious thing you can say about martyrs is they are dead. So dead people are less effective than are live people.
So I think if he really was eventually captured or killed, I think that would be a kind of psychological blow to the organization.
Clearly, al Qaeda is functioning whether bin Laden is alive or not. But I think bin Laden was able to bring together a lot of people from around the world, tell them their common problem was the United States and this program was believed by a lot of people.
I think without him, he's sort of the chief ideologue and also the chief organizer. So that's important.
However, al Qaeda has continued to function, albeit in a much sort of smaller way since 9/11. We've seen a blizzard of attacks now in Pakistan and we've also seen a lot of attacks and attempted attacks around the world. But they've been pretty small potatoes compared to 9/11. You're talking about very small operations relatively.
O'BRIEN: Is it just a matter of time, Peter, before we see a big operation from al Qaeda?
BERGEN: My view is that there may be one more in the pipeline that was in the pipeline before 9/11. The USS Cole attack, which was in Yemen in October 2000, was being planned at the same time as 9/11. They are capable of mounting two operations at once.
On the other hand, they have been pretty severely disrupted. I mean they lost their headquarters in Afghanistan. The top leadership is either on the run or captured or killed. That has surely got to impact -- that must impact -- I don't think they can pull off big operations in the future. They may have one which is in the pipeline that was in the pipeline pre-9/11. That's a wild card there.
O'BRIEN: All right, Peter Bergen, our terrorism analyst, author of "Holy War, Inc.," thank you very much for being with us, as always.
BERGEN: Thank you.
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