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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview With Michael Swetnam

Aired August 24, 2002 - 07:22   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: This week we have seen some chilling videotape of al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden in action, especially those in a special series that our senior international correspondent, Nic Robertson, as he brought these tapes back from Afghanistan.
Well, right now we want to give you some perspective on these tapes. We have an expert joining us today. His name is Michael Swetnam, he is the CEO of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.

Michael, thank you very much for joining us today.

MICHAEL SWETNAM, CEO, POTOMAC INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES: Well, thank you for having me.

LIN: You wrote the book "Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda: Profile of the Terrorist Network." I'm wondering, when you watched the videotapes this week, this five-part series, was there anything in these tapes that surprised you?

SWETNAM: There was quite a bit in the tapes that confirmed what we already knew. I was surprised once again by the ferocity, the determination, the ruthlessness of this organization. You know, over the past year, in fact past couple of years, we've received literally hundreds of documents detailing the training techniques and the development of weapons of mass destruction by al Qaeda.

To actually see visual confirmation of the ruthlessness of this organization...

LIN: But wasn't it, wasn't it...

SWETNAM: ... was frightening.

LIN: ... information that you already, already had suspected? In other words, the -- I think what you're talking about is this dramatic video of when they were practicing some sort of -- on -- some sort of chemical on four different dogs, and we watch them die on videotape.

SWETNAM: Some of that we suspected before, but it had not been confirmed, as is with the training and the exercises as well. As I said, we saw -- we had some documentation describing these maneuvers.

But to actually see the techniques that they used to carry out the training, the way that they actually commanded the training and the exercising of these operatives of theirs, helps us understand to a much greater detail how organized they are and how effective they might be if they employed these forces around the world.

LIN: To the degree that we will be, as Americans, better prepared for the next attack?

SWETNAM: I think so, I think it will help us prepare quite a bit. It will certainly focus us to a large degree. Actually seeing them execute these exercises will allow us to design exercises ourselves to counter these types of operations should we, we have to face them here in the United States or in other parts of the world.

LIN: What about Osama bin Laden himself? We saw that videotape, that ambush tape was just the beginning of what we saw this week. We also saw Osama bin Laden surrounded by his security forces, a security force that has been described to me as par none to the security around the president of the United States.

SWETNAM: That's absolutely correct.

LIN: These tapes, these tapes were supposed to help understand Osama bin Laden's mindset. What is it that you learned?

SWETNAM: Well, I think we saw that once again, he's a very charismatic leader. The tapes illustrated how he used that charisma and that leadership to inspire his troops from time to time. But I think we also gained some understanding of how his security forces operated around him.

And it confirmed some of our suspicions about why it's been so difficult to locate him over these months, because his security forces do operate in such a professional and very clandestine matter.

LIN: I mean, is there any question in your mind that Osama bin Laden is still alive?

SWETNAM: I think that he quite possibly is still alive. However, I would suspect that he is nowhere near as healthy or as vibrant as he was before, because of the pressure that's been put on him and the fact that he's had to hide in the shadows, quite literally, without probably all the attention and all the medical care that he was able to receive before.

But there's no doubt that his network and the leadership in his network are still alive, still operating, and still very capable of bringing destruction upon us here in the United States.

LIN: Well, these tapes are four years old, so, I mean, what does that indicate to you in terms of what they're going to do in the future from here on out?

SWETNAM: Actually, it brought home to me again the fact that this organization has been training operatives, or was training operatives, in Afghanistan for almost 10 years. Near the end, they were producing as many as 1,500 al Qaeda operatives per year and then dispersing them around the world to 60 countries. Many of them, we believe, here to the United States. As many as 10,000 operatives were produced during the time that al Qaeda was operating in Afghanistan. It reminded me once again how threatened we are, that most of these al Qaeda operatives are still out there, most of their leaders are still alive, and we're quite, quite at risk today.

LIN: Some of the tactics, though, that we saw in these videotapes were relatively rudimentary. I mean, and maybe it's just the desert environment in which they were training. But how sophisticated a network are you talking about? You're talking about big numbers of people. But are these people able to operate around the constraints that the United States and its intelligence services around the world are trying to set up to block them?

SWETNAM: Oh, yes, quite definitely. They set up a very, very sophisticated organization, where the operatives received detailed training depicted by these tapes, training not just in the operations of warfare but training in clandestine survival, how to integrate into a community like the United States, make money, act like a part of society, and still be a part of the al Qaeda network.

This network has developed a communications capability that is very, very hard for our intelligence community to follow. They've developed an ability to flow money around the world outside of all the banking structures. Very, very, very hard to, to follow.

This network is extremely sophisticated, very, very capable of hiding in the shadows. And there should be no doubt that this network is alive and to a large extent well and operating today.

LIN: Michael Swetnam, you have painted a very, very scary picture for us on this Saturday morning. Thank you very much for joining us today.

SWETNAM: Well, thank you.

LIN: All right.

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