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Defense Analyst Discusses Post-War Scenarios in Iraq

Aired October 12, 2002 - 07:42   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: The plan to occupy Iraq is only one possibility being considered and some officials say it is the least likely. Here to talk about the post-war scenarios is David Isby, he is a defense analyst who joins us from Washington this morning.
Morning, David.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE ANALYST: Good morning.

LIN: Well, when you talking about occupation, U.S.-led occupation in the Middle East that is a loaded phrase isn't it?

ISBY: It certainly is. No one in the region wants to see what is perceived as an outside power -- an imperial power -- coming in. However, a U.S. presences would probably be necessary to pull together an Iraqi government to take over from Saddam Hussein.

Without U.S. support, it's going to be a much more difficult situation than what we're currently going through in Afghanistan, where there's a lot more unity, people all wanted to be part of Afghanistan whereas people such as the Kurds and Shiites have less good feelings about being part of Iraq.

LIN: Well -- and -- see, what I really don't understand is in Afghanistan's case prior to finding Hamid Karzai, a symbol to the country, someone who could actually unify all the different tribes in the region, why is it that they cannot find a Hamid Karzai within the Iraqi opposition?

ISBY: Well, they may yet find a Hamid Karzai if they just look hard enough or one is going to be thrust forward. In -- by showing that they are capable of supporting the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In fact, the Karzai of Iraq, if you will, may prove to be a general. One of the advantages this current plan is being quoted is, this is to persuade the neighbors of Iraq, places like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to press their candidates inside Iraq to move now against Saddam Hussein so that they can have more leverage in the transition. So who the Karzai of Iraq will be remains to be seen.

LIN: But David, the neighbors of Iraq -- I'm talking about -- not about the leadership in those countries but about the Arab street.

You know, the Arab street is going to say this is not about maintaining security inside of Iraq, this is about the United States wanting to get it's hands on Iraq's oil. This is about control of the flow of oil and the western interests there. ISBY: The only way to contradict that as much as you do in places like Afghanistan is by making life better for the citizens of Iraq. By removing the embargoes, by starting rebuilding and the citizens of Iraq like any place else, they want to vote, too. So if you can do that, I think the way to counteract that is by facts.

LIN: But David, how do you know they want to vote when Iraq has never had a democracy; it's not part of their culture, it's part of Western culture, it's not part of Eastern culture?

ISBY: We see that in places like Jordan, Yemen, even Iran. When people are given the chance to vote, take place in elections, yes, maybe rigged Chicago-style elections at times, maybe limited, but they're interested to. That is why regime such as that in Iran find themselves under pressure from the ground up. So, the people of Iraq have been really out of politics since 1958 and it's going to take a while to get them back in.

LIN: So give us a scenario, then, a post-war Iraq, if in fact there is a regime change and the United States remains -- has a military presence in the region -- what are some of the options for how that post-war regime would look?

ISBY: Well, that's very scenario-dependent, as they say. If the Iraqi military moves against Hussein, they're likely to remain a strong force. If the Iraqi military fights the Americans, and has to be taken apart by firepower, they're likely to have a very minimal role.

If there's going to be tension between exiles who were in the West, between people who were in Iraq and having the hardships of the Saddam Hussein regime, they'll be the ethnics, the Kurds, the Shiites, and they'll also be the strong left which has been suppressed since the 1950s.

You also going to have the Turks, the Saudis, the Iranians; these people all have interests in a post-war Iraq and they're going to be doing their part to get the government they want.

LIN: Right there and then, David Isby, you have outlined the complexities of what may happen. But of course, that's a long way away. We don't even know if we're going to go to war, yet or not. So, let's keep our fingers crossed and keep our eye on the situation. David Isby, thank you very much.

ISBY: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 12, 2002 - 07:42   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: The plan to occupy Iraq is only one possibility being considered and some officials say it is the least likely. Here to talk about the post-war scenarios is David Isby, he is a defense analyst who joins us from Washington this morning.
Morning, David.

DAVID ISBY, DEFENSE ANALYST: Good morning.

LIN: Well, when you talking about occupation, U.S.-led occupation in the Middle East that is a loaded phrase isn't it?

ISBY: It certainly is. No one in the region wants to see what is perceived as an outside power -- an imperial power -- coming in. However, a U.S. presences would probably be necessary to pull together an Iraqi government to take over from Saddam Hussein.

Without U.S. support, it's going to be a much more difficult situation than what we're currently going through in Afghanistan, where there's a lot more unity, people all wanted to be part of Afghanistan whereas people such as the Kurds and Shiites have less good feelings about being part of Iraq.

LIN: Well -- and -- see, what I really don't understand is in Afghanistan's case prior to finding Hamid Karzai, a symbol to the country, someone who could actually unify all the different tribes in the region, why is it that they cannot find a Hamid Karzai within the Iraqi opposition?

ISBY: Well, they may yet find a Hamid Karzai if they just look hard enough or one is going to be thrust forward. In -- by showing that they are capable of supporting the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In fact, the Karzai of Iraq, if you will, may prove to be a general. One of the advantages this current plan is being quoted is, this is to persuade the neighbors of Iraq, places like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, to press their candidates inside Iraq to move now against Saddam Hussein so that they can have more leverage in the transition. So who the Karzai of Iraq will be remains to be seen.

LIN: But David, the neighbors of Iraq -- I'm talking about -- not about the leadership in those countries but about the Arab street.

You know, the Arab street is going to say this is not about maintaining security inside of Iraq, this is about the United States wanting to get it's hands on Iraq's oil. This is about control of the flow of oil and the western interests there. ISBY: The only way to contradict that as much as you do in places like Afghanistan is by making life better for the citizens of Iraq. By removing the embargoes, by starting rebuilding and the citizens of Iraq like any place else, they want to vote, too. So if you can do that, I think the way to counteract that is by facts.

LIN: But David, how do you know they want to vote when Iraq has never had a democracy; it's not part of their culture, it's part of Western culture, it's not part of Eastern culture?

ISBY: We see that in places like Jordan, Yemen, even Iran. When people are given the chance to vote, take place in elections, yes, maybe rigged Chicago-style elections at times, maybe limited, but they're interested to. That is why regime such as that in Iran find themselves under pressure from the ground up. So, the people of Iraq have been really out of politics since 1958 and it's going to take a while to get them back in.

LIN: So give us a scenario, then, a post-war Iraq, if in fact there is a regime change and the United States remains -- has a military presence in the region -- what are some of the options for how that post-war regime would look?

ISBY: Well, that's very scenario-dependent, as they say. If the Iraqi military moves against Hussein, they're likely to remain a strong force. If the Iraqi military fights the Americans, and has to be taken apart by firepower, they're likely to have a very minimal role.

If there's going to be tension between exiles who were in the West, between people who were in Iraq and having the hardships of the Saddam Hussein regime, they'll be the ethnics, the Kurds, the Shiites, and they'll also be the strong left which has been suppressed since the 1950s.

You also going to have the Turks, the Saudis, the Iranians; these people all have interests in a post-war Iraq and they're going to be doing their part to get the government they want.

LIN: Right there and then, David Isby, you have outlined the complexities of what may happen. But of course, that's a long way away. We don't even know if we're going to go to war, yet or not. So, let's keep our fingers crossed and keep our eye on the situation. David Isby, thank you very much.

ISBY: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com