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CNN Saturday Morning News

Nuclear Expert Discusses North Korean Testing

Aired October 19, 2002 - 07:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. says it will work with its allies to push for the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons program -- that is the word from Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly who is in Asia for talks with leaders.
North Korea has revealed it still has a nuclear weapons program despite a promise to end it. Kelly says North Korea is under international scrutiny, and must live up to its pledge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES KELLY, ASST. SECY. OF STATE: We are watching very closely to see if North Korea takes the action we and the rest of the international community are demanding, to immediately and visibly end its nuclear weapons program, and to abide by its international commitments.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Meanwhile, Pakistan's president is denying reports his government secretly helped North Korea develop a nuclear weapons program in exchange for missiles. President Bush refers to Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as the "Axis of Evil." He was already preparing for a possible war with Iraq when he got what he called the troubling news about North Korea's nuclear program.

Joining us from Washington to discuss all of this is Henry Sokolski. He is of the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center. Mr. Sokolski, good to have you with us.

HENRY SOKOLSKI, NON-PROLIFERATION POLICY EDUCATION CENTER: Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: First of all, can you explain why North Korea would make that announcement?

SOKOLSKI: Well, it's hard to know precisely, but it appears as though they were concerned about us possibly attacking them on the one hand -- on the other hand...

O'BRIEN: Wait, wait, wait. So, they're concerned that we might attack them -- the U.S. -- might attack them, and thus they said wait a minute, we have nuclear weapons?

SOKOLSKI: Look, the North Koreans are reading these speeches by the president saying we are going to preemptively strike proliferators. If you go to their web site, as I have, you see their -- they are very actively concerned about that, on the one hand.

On the other hand, they probably figured that we have the information that they were going to be isolated anyway and perhaps listening to their Pakistani friends who had experienced getting a nuclear weapon and nothing really happened to them -- that they could pull it off, because we were distracted by Iraq. So, all of those things possibly were in play.

O'BRIEN: Well, no, but -- how does going public work as a defensive move, though? I still don't quite get that.

SOKOLSKI: Well, by going public you make it very clear that it's too late to prevent them from proliferating, and you may get the additional advantage of getting the status of an India or a Pakistan. Which is an established fact, you have to deal with it, and -- well -- what are you going to do?

O'BRIEN: All right -- so -- try to do your best here to assess the real threat that North Korea presents with nuclear weapons.

SOKOLSKI: It's a major threat that's different than the Middle East because the reaction to them going ahead and going further with nuclear weapons could mean a trigger reaction by Japan, which is sitting on 7,000 bombs-worth of separated plutonium. Meanwhile, China is sitting on another 2,000 bombs-worth of plutonium that it is not militarized.

You could put into play an arms race in the Far East that you couldn't put into play in the Middle East that could cause the United States and Russia to have to reconsider coming down in their own arsenals. That won't happen in the Middle East.

O'BRIEN: Tell us about their rocketry technology and missile technology -- it's more sophisticated certainly than Iraq's?

SOKOLSKI: It is, because they have mastered what's called multiple stage technology. You can't get a missile all the way around the world with just one-stage rockets. With multiple-stage rockets, you can. And they're only a handful of nations that have mastered that technology -- North Korea is one of them.

O'BRIEN: All right -- then, looking at the threat that is out there and operating under the philosophy of, I guess you could call it the Bush Doctrine -- sort of preemptive action -- in other words not waiting for that smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud. Should North Korea be something that the U.S. forces are considering doing some sort of preemptive action on?

SOKOLSKI: Military action may make sense in the case of Iraq. In the case of North Korea, you're going to have to back off of that...

O'BRIEN: Why?

SOKOLSKI: Because -- well -- because a war there would kill so many of your friends it would be a phyrric proposition. However, we will have to do more than just stop bribing them into behaving, and I think what it remains to be seen is what happens if North Korea does not cooperate. I think we're headed -- if we're thinking this thing through clearly -- to a smaller version of a Cold War that I'm very confident we can handle at least as well as we did against the Soviet Union.

O'BRIEN: Oh, interesting -- a smaller version of the Cold War. Let's talk about cooperation for a moment. There are people literally starving in North Korea, the economy's a complete shambles. Will that not motivate the North Koreans to soften their stance on nuclear weapons one way or another?

SOKOLSKI: It ought to, but with regard to the starving, that's quite conscious. There are aid workers I've talked to who make it very clear that people aren't just starving, they are dissidents sent into districts and starved or murdered. So it's quite conscious; much like Stalin. So that is something they cannot only survive, but, politically, they're thriving from that.

On the other hand, if China should leverage their behavior with the cut off of energy -- include their supply -- that will pinch them very, much. Similarly, if Japan and the United States prevent them from getting access to loans, that will put them in a major pinch.

O'BRIEN: Mr. Sokolski, do you see any contradiction in the Bush policy which is put Iraq right at the top of the list of potential enemies when Iraq doesn't have any -- there's no concrete proof that they have nuclear weapons? It's something that is on the near-term horizon, whereas there is now proof from the horse's mouth that North Korea does?

SOKOLSKI: Well, it's a bit awkward. I think you do what you can, and in the case of Iraq, you can prevent it from becoming a North Korea. On the other hand, I think we have to start making it clear that the violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections is similar in both cases, and therefore in both cases the objectives that Bush has laid out -- which is to change the regime if necessary and make sure that they come clean and own up -- and if not, that they're isolated and put out of business in due course, has to be the same in both cases.

O'BRIEN: Henry Sokolski is with the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center -- thanks very much for being with us on CNN Saturday Morning.

SOKOLSKI: Thanks for having me.

O'BRIEN: We appreciate it.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired October 19, 2002 - 07:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. says it will work with its allies to push for the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons program -- that is the word from Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly who is in Asia for talks with leaders.
North Korea has revealed it still has a nuclear weapons program despite a promise to end it. Kelly says North Korea is under international scrutiny, and must live up to its pledge.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES KELLY, ASST. SECY. OF STATE: We are watching very closely to see if North Korea takes the action we and the rest of the international community are demanding, to immediately and visibly end its nuclear weapons program, and to abide by its international commitments.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Meanwhile, Pakistan's president is denying reports his government secretly helped North Korea develop a nuclear weapons program in exchange for missiles. President Bush refers to Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as the "Axis of Evil." He was already preparing for a possible war with Iraq when he got what he called the troubling news about North Korea's nuclear program.

Joining us from Washington to discuss all of this is Henry Sokolski. He is of the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center. Mr. Sokolski, good to have you with us.

HENRY SOKOLSKI, NON-PROLIFERATION POLICY EDUCATION CENTER: Good to be here.

O'BRIEN: First of all, can you explain why North Korea would make that announcement?

SOKOLSKI: Well, it's hard to know precisely, but it appears as though they were concerned about us possibly attacking them on the one hand -- on the other hand...

O'BRIEN: Wait, wait, wait. So, they're concerned that we might attack them -- the U.S. -- might attack them, and thus they said wait a minute, we have nuclear weapons?

SOKOLSKI: Look, the North Koreans are reading these speeches by the president saying we are going to preemptively strike proliferators. If you go to their web site, as I have, you see their -- they are very actively concerned about that, on the one hand.

On the other hand, they probably figured that we have the information that they were going to be isolated anyway and perhaps listening to their Pakistani friends who had experienced getting a nuclear weapon and nothing really happened to them -- that they could pull it off, because we were distracted by Iraq. So, all of those things possibly were in play.

O'BRIEN: Well, no, but -- how does going public work as a defensive move, though? I still don't quite get that.

SOKOLSKI: Well, by going public you make it very clear that it's too late to prevent them from proliferating, and you may get the additional advantage of getting the status of an India or a Pakistan. Which is an established fact, you have to deal with it, and -- well -- what are you going to do?

O'BRIEN: All right -- so -- try to do your best here to assess the real threat that North Korea presents with nuclear weapons.

SOKOLSKI: It's a major threat that's different than the Middle East because the reaction to them going ahead and going further with nuclear weapons could mean a trigger reaction by Japan, which is sitting on 7,000 bombs-worth of separated plutonium. Meanwhile, China is sitting on another 2,000 bombs-worth of plutonium that it is not militarized.

You could put into play an arms race in the Far East that you couldn't put into play in the Middle East that could cause the United States and Russia to have to reconsider coming down in their own arsenals. That won't happen in the Middle East.

O'BRIEN: Tell us about their rocketry technology and missile technology -- it's more sophisticated certainly than Iraq's?

SOKOLSKI: It is, because they have mastered what's called multiple stage technology. You can't get a missile all the way around the world with just one-stage rockets. With multiple-stage rockets, you can. And they're only a handful of nations that have mastered that technology -- North Korea is one of them.

O'BRIEN: All right -- then, looking at the threat that is out there and operating under the philosophy of, I guess you could call it the Bush Doctrine -- sort of preemptive action -- in other words not waiting for that smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud. Should North Korea be something that the U.S. forces are considering doing some sort of preemptive action on?

SOKOLSKI: Military action may make sense in the case of Iraq. In the case of North Korea, you're going to have to back off of that...

O'BRIEN: Why?

SOKOLSKI: Because -- well -- because a war there would kill so many of your friends it would be a phyrric proposition. However, we will have to do more than just stop bribing them into behaving, and I think what it remains to be seen is what happens if North Korea does not cooperate. I think we're headed -- if we're thinking this thing through clearly -- to a smaller version of a Cold War that I'm very confident we can handle at least as well as we did against the Soviet Union.

O'BRIEN: Oh, interesting -- a smaller version of the Cold War. Let's talk about cooperation for a moment. There are people literally starving in North Korea, the economy's a complete shambles. Will that not motivate the North Koreans to soften their stance on nuclear weapons one way or another?

SOKOLSKI: It ought to, but with regard to the starving, that's quite conscious. There are aid workers I've talked to who make it very clear that people aren't just starving, they are dissidents sent into districts and starved or murdered. So it's quite conscious; much like Stalin. So that is something they cannot only survive, but, politically, they're thriving from that.

On the other hand, if China should leverage their behavior with the cut off of energy -- include their supply -- that will pinch them very, much. Similarly, if Japan and the United States prevent them from getting access to loans, that will put them in a major pinch.

O'BRIEN: Mr. Sokolski, do you see any contradiction in the Bush policy which is put Iraq right at the top of the list of potential enemies when Iraq doesn't have any -- there's no concrete proof that they have nuclear weapons? It's something that is on the near-term horizon, whereas there is now proof from the horse's mouth that North Korea does?

SOKOLSKI: Well, it's a bit awkward. I think you do what you can, and in the case of Iraq, you can prevent it from becoming a North Korea. On the other hand, I think we have to start making it clear that the violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections is similar in both cases, and therefore in both cases the objectives that Bush has laid out -- which is to change the regime if necessary and make sure that they come clean and own up -- and if not, that they're isolated and put out of business in due course, has to be the same in both cases.

O'BRIEN: Henry Sokolski is with the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center -- thanks very much for being with us on CNN Saturday Morning.

SOKOLSKI: Thanks for having me.

O'BRIEN: We appreciate it.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com