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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview with Whit Ayres, Julian Epstein

Aired November 09, 2002 - 07:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: Now that the election is over you think we're done with politics for another couple of years, right? Well, guess again. The politicians and the pollsters are already looking ahead as well as analyzing Tuesday's results.
Joining us from Washington to discuss all of this, GOP pollster Whit Ayres, and Democratic strategist Julian Epstein. Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us.

WHIT AYRES, GOP POLLSTER: Good to be here.

SAN MIGUEL: Julian, let me start with you because there are some latest developments in the post-election shuffle. This battle for the soul of the Democratic Party that's going on. Harold Ford of Tennessee now saying that he wants to challenge Nancy Pelosi of California for the House Minority Leadership position.

Martin Frost bowed out of this race -- talking about Martin Frost, the Congressman from Texas, saying she's got the votes.

Where do you think -- does Ford stand a chance here?

JULIAN EPSTEIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think Nancy Pelosi has it wrapped up. I think Harold Ford is a great guy; he's a guy that the Party should put out in front. He's actually a personal friend of mine.

I don't think it matters too much at this point that he's got in because as I said Pelosi's got it wrapped up. What Pelosi's got to do is she's got to move to the political center. She's got to get away from the kind of pre-9/11 small mindedness that characterized the Party.

The type of small-mindedness that tends to just define the Party on small, incremental differences on things like prescription drugs between the Democrats and the Republicans. She's got to move to a much larger, kind of bigger ideas populist centrism, and I think if the Party does that, they'll be on their way back.

SAN MIGUEL: But, Mr. Ayres, if she does not do that -- I mean, she is characterized as a California liberal, you're just waiting to jump on that, aren't you?

AYRES: Well I think the Democrats are on the verge of learning the wrong lesson from Tuesday. I think if their lesson is that they need to move to the left, they need to be more confrontational, they need to fight George Bush on every one of his agenda items, I think that's the wrong lesson. It's great for us as Republicans; it's not so good as Americans.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here, though, is if the Democrats have been saying since Tuesday OK, now you have the House and the -- the Republicans have the House and the Senate -- in addition to the White House, no more excuses now, no one else to blame if the country does not move forward on things like economy, Social Security, education. What about that response from the GOP?

AYRES: Well, it's clearly a challenge you want if you're in politics. You want to have the opportunity to get something done; and I think all Republicans understand that they need to produce now. And I think they will.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea also, though, Julian is to -- for -- this -- the idea of liberal versus centrist. We saw how President Clinton had moved the Party to the center and won two elections through that. You know, if Nancy Pelosi is out there representing the Party and fighting against President Bush on things and really, really challenging on the domestic issues, how would that play for 2004 and the Democrats?

EPSTEIN: Well I agree with Whit; I think the Party has got to move to the center here. I think if it moves to the left, it will learn the wrong lesson.

I think that certainly one of the lessons that we take from the Clinton administration -- the other one -- is that you've got to stand for something. I mean, I think what the Party ought to be talking about right now is populism.

I think that what you could be doing for example on this -- on the tax plan -- is moving this 40 percent of the tax giveaway that was given to the richest one percent, and redistributing that to the middle class because they're more likely to spend the money get the economy going.

So I think there's a lot of issues where Democrats could sharply define themselves against the Republicans, but I think they should do that from the political center, and if they have the right personality, the right imagination, they'll be able to do it in a way that brings the liberal wing along as well.

SAN MIGUEL: Wasn't that the problem with Tuesday was that there weren't -- I mean -- there was a lot of complaining about the Bush agenda but no clear concrete alternatives...

EPSTEIN: Yes, the problem -- the problem with the Democrats on Tuesday was brain death, to be quite frank. And the Party continues to rely on this pre-11 -- as I say pre-11 mentality where you seek the -- where they seek to define themselves on things like prescription drugs when the differences between Republicans and Democrats on that issue are not that great right now.

I think what they've got to go to -- they've got to return to -- is this kind of Clinton populism -- this Clinton centrism -- that is more optimistic. The Party is far too negative right now, it's complaining about what the Bush administration is not doing rather than presenting a positive, optimistic alternative.

Ronald Regan did that, Bill Clinton did that, the Democrats should learn from that.

AYRES: I think Julian's exactly right on this. Some of those silver bullet issues the Democrats hope to win on like making an issue out of prescription drug prices just didn't have the traction.

But post-9/11 Americans are looking for an optimistic and unifying message, and so much of what the Democrats said in this election sounded negative. It was: if President Bush wants it, we're against it. We're against the tax cuts, we're against his prescription drug plan, we're against his Homeland Security, we're against his judges -- and that was not a message in sync with the times post-9/11.

SAN MIGUEL: Mr. Ayres, though, isn't there also the challenge now for President Bush if the parties and the public -- and the elections -- are won in the political center to keep the extreme right wing from hijacking his party?

AYRES: I think President Bush has wonderful political instincts. I don't think you're going to seen an extremist agenda at all. I think you'll see a very mainstream agenda out of this president and out of this Republican Congress.

EPSTEIN: Well, I'd just like to respond to that if I could. If you remember, the worst time for the Clinton administration was between '92 and '94 when Clinton had the White House and Democrats had the House and the Senate.

The worst time for the Bush administration was 2001 before 9/11 when -- or at least before -- before May -- when the Bush administration also had the House and Senate.

There is a tendency when you have all three branches to have the -- kind of the wings -- the extremist wings, of the base in power and I think you're seeing that in both Democratic and Republican administrations and if that happens again now -- if the Republicans are tempted to do that, say to go back to issues like trying to outlaw abortion which I think the base rally wants them to do then I think that will just make it easier again for the Democrats to occupy the center on basic economic issues.

SAN MIGUEL: Really quickly from both of you gentlemen here, we only have about 45 seconds left -- the negative campaigning that went on. The idea here is that maybe it may have worked in some of the races but you know from what I was hearing from the folks who live here in Atlanta was that they were -- the voters are getting really tired of seeing this constant barrage of negative campaigning. Any lessons to be learned here as we move forward?

AYRES: I think you can draw a contrast, but I think the tone of any kind of contrast needs to be in sync with the times and I think that anything that's over the top or anything that's too harsh is likely to backfire and blow up your own campaign rather than hurt the other guy. EPSTEIN: Negative campaigns are winning the battle but they're losing the war. Fewer than 40 percent of the people turned out, which means that on Tuesday night fewer than 20 percent of the American voters actually determined the outcome, which is a sad commentary.

SAN MIGUEL: Julian Epstein, Democratic strategist. GOP pollster Whit Ayres; thanks both of you for joining us this morning, for getting up early with us on CNN Saturday Morning.

EPSTEIN: Pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 9, 2002 - 07:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
RENAY SAN MIGUEL, CNN ANCHOR: Now that the election is over you think we're done with politics for another couple of years, right? Well, guess again. The politicians and the pollsters are already looking ahead as well as analyzing Tuesday's results.
Joining us from Washington to discuss all of this, GOP pollster Whit Ayres, and Democratic strategist Julian Epstein. Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us.

WHIT AYRES, GOP POLLSTER: Good to be here.

SAN MIGUEL: Julian, let me start with you because there are some latest developments in the post-election shuffle. This battle for the soul of the Democratic Party that's going on. Harold Ford of Tennessee now saying that he wants to challenge Nancy Pelosi of California for the House Minority Leadership position.

Martin Frost bowed out of this race -- talking about Martin Frost, the Congressman from Texas, saying she's got the votes.

Where do you think -- does Ford stand a chance here?

JULIAN EPSTEIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think Nancy Pelosi has it wrapped up. I think Harold Ford is a great guy; he's a guy that the Party should put out in front. He's actually a personal friend of mine.

I don't think it matters too much at this point that he's got in because as I said Pelosi's got it wrapped up. What Pelosi's got to do is she's got to move to the political center. She's got to get away from the kind of pre-9/11 small mindedness that characterized the Party.

The type of small-mindedness that tends to just define the Party on small, incremental differences on things like prescription drugs between the Democrats and the Republicans. She's got to move to a much larger, kind of bigger ideas populist centrism, and I think if the Party does that, they'll be on their way back.

SAN MIGUEL: But, Mr. Ayres, if she does not do that -- I mean, she is characterized as a California liberal, you're just waiting to jump on that, aren't you?

AYRES: Well I think the Democrats are on the verge of learning the wrong lesson from Tuesday. I think if their lesson is that they need to move to the left, they need to be more confrontational, they need to fight George Bush on every one of his agenda items, I think that's the wrong lesson. It's great for us as Republicans; it's not so good as Americans.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea here, though, is if the Democrats have been saying since Tuesday OK, now you have the House and the -- the Republicans have the House and the Senate -- in addition to the White House, no more excuses now, no one else to blame if the country does not move forward on things like economy, Social Security, education. What about that response from the GOP?

AYRES: Well, it's clearly a challenge you want if you're in politics. You want to have the opportunity to get something done; and I think all Republicans understand that they need to produce now. And I think they will.

SAN MIGUEL: The idea also, though, Julian is to -- for -- this -- the idea of liberal versus centrist. We saw how President Clinton had moved the Party to the center and won two elections through that. You know, if Nancy Pelosi is out there representing the Party and fighting against President Bush on things and really, really challenging on the domestic issues, how would that play for 2004 and the Democrats?

EPSTEIN: Well I agree with Whit; I think the Party has got to move to the center here. I think if it moves to the left, it will learn the wrong lesson.

I think that certainly one of the lessons that we take from the Clinton administration -- the other one -- is that you've got to stand for something. I mean, I think what the Party ought to be talking about right now is populism.

I think that what you could be doing for example on this -- on the tax plan -- is moving this 40 percent of the tax giveaway that was given to the richest one percent, and redistributing that to the middle class because they're more likely to spend the money get the economy going.

So I think there's a lot of issues where Democrats could sharply define themselves against the Republicans, but I think they should do that from the political center, and if they have the right personality, the right imagination, they'll be able to do it in a way that brings the liberal wing along as well.

SAN MIGUEL: Wasn't that the problem with Tuesday was that there weren't -- I mean -- there was a lot of complaining about the Bush agenda but no clear concrete alternatives...

EPSTEIN: Yes, the problem -- the problem with the Democrats on Tuesday was brain death, to be quite frank. And the Party continues to rely on this pre-11 -- as I say pre-11 mentality where you seek the -- where they seek to define themselves on things like prescription drugs when the differences between Republicans and Democrats on that issue are not that great right now.

I think what they've got to go to -- they've got to return to -- is this kind of Clinton populism -- this Clinton centrism -- that is more optimistic. The Party is far too negative right now, it's complaining about what the Bush administration is not doing rather than presenting a positive, optimistic alternative.

Ronald Regan did that, Bill Clinton did that, the Democrats should learn from that.

AYRES: I think Julian's exactly right on this. Some of those silver bullet issues the Democrats hope to win on like making an issue out of prescription drug prices just didn't have the traction.

But post-9/11 Americans are looking for an optimistic and unifying message, and so much of what the Democrats said in this election sounded negative. It was: if President Bush wants it, we're against it. We're against the tax cuts, we're against his prescription drug plan, we're against his Homeland Security, we're against his judges -- and that was not a message in sync with the times post-9/11.

SAN MIGUEL: Mr. Ayres, though, isn't there also the challenge now for President Bush if the parties and the public -- and the elections -- are won in the political center to keep the extreme right wing from hijacking his party?

AYRES: I think President Bush has wonderful political instincts. I don't think you're going to seen an extremist agenda at all. I think you'll see a very mainstream agenda out of this president and out of this Republican Congress.

EPSTEIN: Well, I'd just like to respond to that if I could. If you remember, the worst time for the Clinton administration was between '92 and '94 when Clinton had the White House and Democrats had the House and the Senate.

The worst time for the Bush administration was 2001 before 9/11 when -- or at least before -- before May -- when the Bush administration also had the House and Senate.

There is a tendency when you have all three branches to have the -- kind of the wings -- the extremist wings, of the base in power and I think you're seeing that in both Democratic and Republican administrations and if that happens again now -- if the Republicans are tempted to do that, say to go back to issues like trying to outlaw abortion which I think the base rally wants them to do then I think that will just make it easier again for the Democrats to occupy the center on basic economic issues.

SAN MIGUEL: Really quickly from both of you gentlemen here, we only have about 45 seconds left -- the negative campaigning that went on. The idea here is that maybe it may have worked in some of the races but you know from what I was hearing from the folks who live here in Atlanta was that they were -- the voters are getting really tired of seeing this constant barrage of negative campaigning. Any lessons to be learned here as we move forward?

AYRES: I think you can draw a contrast, but I think the tone of any kind of contrast needs to be in sync with the times and I think that anything that's over the top or anything that's too harsh is likely to backfire and blow up your own campaign rather than hurt the other guy. EPSTEIN: Negative campaigns are winning the battle but they're losing the war. Fewer than 40 percent of the people turned out, which means that on Tuesday night fewer than 20 percent of the American voters actually determined the outcome, which is a sad commentary.

SAN MIGUEL: Julian Epstein, Democratic strategist. GOP pollster Whit Ayres; thanks both of you for joining us this morning, for getting up early with us on CNN Saturday Morning.

EPSTEIN: Pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com