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CNN Saturday Morning News

Analysis of Missiles Missing Israeli Plane

Aired November 30, 2002 - 07:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CATHERINE CALLOWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get some perspective now of the larger war on terror, and for that we turn to our guest, CNN military analyst Kelly McCann, who's joining us from Washington this morning. And here in Atlanta, we're joined by Jim Walsh from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is an expert in international security, specifically weapons of mass destruction.
Thank you both for being with us this morning.

Kelly, I want to start with you to talk about these two surface- to-air missiles that were found there on the beach in Kenya. Are authorities going to be able to trace where these weapons came from? What all will they be able to tell from these weapons?

KELLY MCCANN, CNN SECURITY ANALYST: Well, typically weapons systems are marked with either the lot and the year of manufacture, so that, you know, can -- we can control and obviously maintain them correctly. Now, this weapons system's been in service since 1967. If that plate still exists, or if in fact it was stamped or etched into the body or the device itself, and they find that, then it is reasonable to think that we'll be able to know when it was made and where it was made.

But it could have been altered, and that could have been removed. You can forensically get to the etching if it's been removed, but it's more difficult.

CALLOWAY: And Jim, I know that these weapons have had a shelf life. Could that have anything to do with the reason they missed, is the reason they missed?

JIM WALSH, KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Well, I think it's hard to know why they missed. They're a relatively primitive weapon, as Kelly pointed out. It was only in 1967 they were first tested and used. Their investigators are still trying to figure out why they might have missed.

It is a heat-seeking missile like the Stinger missile, it uses an infrared sensor. But it's not as sophisticated as later models, so it might have been an operator error or it might have been they tried to modify it, and that might have affected it, why it missed. It's hard to tell at this point.

Some had speculated that the Israeli plane might have used countermeasures. Most Israeli planes are equipped with countermeasures. But most people doubt that because they wouldn't have had time to use those countermeasures after have -- having just taken off.

CALLOWAY: And your thoughts on that, Kelly. This was a charter plane. It'd be surprising to hear that it would have any of those type of measures on board.

MCCANN: Interestingly enough, you know, I had spoken to a couple of pilots, and as Jim pointed out, it's thought that El Al planes and other Israeli-owned aircraft do have countermeasures. But since this was a chartered aircraft, there's nothing that would lead us to believe that it had...

CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... countermeasures, chaff and flare.

CALLOWAY: Let's talk about Kenya itself. In 1998, we saw the dual bombings there of the U.S. embassy, so Kenya has seen its fair share of terrorism with al Qaeda, the same group being blamed for that.

But were you surprised a little bit, Jim, that we saw the ambassadors, both ambassadors, coming out rather quickly blaming al Qaeda for this, even though there -- (UNINTELLIGIBLE) even right after it happened, we had on the phone with us one of the ambassadors quickly blaming, saying that al Qaeda had to deny that they did it?

WALSH: Well, Catherine, I was surprised. I thought it might be in Israeli self-interest to point to the Palestinians or Hezbollah, but they wasted no time in identifying al Qaeda. And the Israeli army radio said it was al Qaeda outright and said that they had identified some of the attackers, and one being a member of the leadership in al Qaeda.

So I was surprised. In this case, it's really the U.S. that has been urging caution about not saying who might have done it. But when you look at the overall picture, it comes right after the bin Laden tape of a couple of weeks ago promising action. It's in Kenya, a country that was formerly attacked. And the method, simultaneous attacks on multiple targets, that looks like al Qaeda when you first, when you, when you take a look at it.

CALLOWAY: So Kelly, let's talk about what's different about this. I was on the air when this story broke, and it just seemed that we had moved to a new level of terrorism with these surface-to-air missiles hitting a commercial airliner in a non-war zone. What are your thoughts on that?

MCCANN: I don't know of any other instance where a -- in a non- war zone, a civilian aircraft has been attacked with the missiles. The other thing is, of course, that this was conducted still at the end of Ramadan, before Ede (ph), which is unusual, because everyone's very sensitive to that, even the U.S. is sensitive to observing, you know, that holiday.

SO it's an interesting thing for a fundamentalist organization that espouses, you know, the importance of all that... CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... to attack (UNINTELLIGIBLE) this time.

CALLOWAY: And Kelly, I want to ask this to you both, but I'll start with you. How likely is it we could see something like that happen here in the U.S.? The first mission would be to get the -- those type of missiles here.

MCCANN: You know, the interesting thing, 3 to 7 percent of all containers coming into the U.S. are checked, that's it. So I think that the controls we have on our Stinger missiles here are stringent. As far as battlefield available black market weapons making their way in here, or even if you sent 15 and only three got in...

CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... it's reasonable. But I don't think that we need to -- there's no precedents yet.

CALLOWAY: You know, Jim, Kelly just said, 2 to 7 percent of these cargo ships are investigated. Seems like it would be rather easy.

WALSH: Well, I think that terrorists tend to go for the soft targets over the hard targets, that's why they attacked in Kenya. And so I would expect that U.S. airlines might be targeted, but it's more likely that they'll be targeted in airports outside of the U.S. in the developing world at tourist spots like Indonesia, like a Kenya, than in the United States.

But these weapons are all around. Bin Laden was suspected of having them. The U.S. expected that he might use them during the Afghan war. Hezbollah supposedly received a shipment of these weapons. So they're out there, and I think it's likely to -- that we should expect that they'll be used against American targets, whether it's in the U.S. or abroad.

CALLOWAY: Gentlemen, we are running out of time here, less than a minute. But I want to get your thoughts on U.S. reaction to this, and should more be done? Israel encouraging tourists to return home. I haven't seen that with the U.S., only asking those abroad to be vigilant. Kelly, what do you think?

MCCANN: I think that we have to embrace this. I think this is a point moving forward. And as long as some of these people exist, you know, we -- and they will, then we're going to deal with this problem. We've got to embrace it more than we have.

CALLOWAY: Do you think more needs to be done, Jim?

WALSH: Well, sure, we can always do more. I'm a little hesitant to argue that the U.S. should tell all its visitors -- all its tourists to come back home. That would...

CALLOWAY: Right. WALSH: ... be playing into the terrorists' hands, it would hurt a lot of economies around the world.

But I do think Kenya can be doing a better job. This is, you know, instance number two where there has been a catastrophic attack. Clearly they are a soft spot. Al Qaeda realizes it, and they need to be doing more.

CALLOWAY: Kelly McCann and Jim Walsh, I know you're going to stay with us this morning. Thank you very much for getting up early with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 30, 2002 - 07:05   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CATHERINE CALLOWAY, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get some perspective now of the larger war on terror, and for that we turn to our guest, CNN military analyst Kelly McCann, who's joining us from Washington this morning. And here in Atlanta, we're joined by Jim Walsh from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is an expert in international security, specifically weapons of mass destruction.
Thank you both for being with us this morning.

Kelly, I want to start with you to talk about these two surface- to-air missiles that were found there on the beach in Kenya. Are authorities going to be able to trace where these weapons came from? What all will they be able to tell from these weapons?

KELLY MCCANN, CNN SECURITY ANALYST: Well, typically weapons systems are marked with either the lot and the year of manufacture, so that, you know, can -- we can control and obviously maintain them correctly. Now, this weapons system's been in service since 1967. If that plate still exists, or if in fact it was stamped or etched into the body or the device itself, and they find that, then it is reasonable to think that we'll be able to know when it was made and where it was made.

But it could have been altered, and that could have been removed. You can forensically get to the etching if it's been removed, but it's more difficult.

CALLOWAY: And Jim, I know that these weapons have had a shelf life. Could that have anything to do with the reason they missed, is the reason they missed?

JIM WALSH, KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT: Well, I think it's hard to know why they missed. They're a relatively primitive weapon, as Kelly pointed out. It was only in 1967 they were first tested and used. Their investigators are still trying to figure out why they might have missed.

It is a heat-seeking missile like the Stinger missile, it uses an infrared sensor. But it's not as sophisticated as later models, so it might have been an operator error or it might have been they tried to modify it, and that might have affected it, why it missed. It's hard to tell at this point.

Some had speculated that the Israeli plane might have used countermeasures. Most Israeli planes are equipped with countermeasures. But most people doubt that because they wouldn't have had time to use those countermeasures after have -- having just taken off.

CALLOWAY: And your thoughts on that, Kelly. This was a charter plane. It'd be surprising to hear that it would have any of those type of measures on board.

MCCANN: Interestingly enough, you know, I had spoken to a couple of pilots, and as Jim pointed out, it's thought that El Al planes and other Israeli-owned aircraft do have countermeasures. But since this was a chartered aircraft, there's nothing that would lead us to believe that it had...

CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... countermeasures, chaff and flare.

CALLOWAY: Let's talk about Kenya itself. In 1998, we saw the dual bombings there of the U.S. embassy, so Kenya has seen its fair share of terrorism with al Qaeda, the same group being blamed for that.

But were you surprised a little bit, Jim, that we saw the ambassadors, both ambassadors, coming out rather quickly blaming al Qaeda for this, even though there -- (UNINTELLIGIBLE) even right after it happened, we had on the phone with us one of the ambassadors quickly blaming, saying that al Qaeda had to deny that they did it?

WALSH: Well, Catherine, I was surprised. I thought it might be in Israeli self-interest to point to the Palestinians or Hezbollah, but they wasted no time in identifying al Qaeda. And the Israeli army radio said it was al Qaeda outright and said that they had identified some of the attackers, and one being a member of the leadership in al Qaeda.

So I was surprised. In this case, it's really the U.S. that has been urging caution about not saying who might have done it. But when you look at the overall picture, it comes right after the bin Laden tape of a couple of weeks ago promising action. It's in Kenya, a country that was formerly attacked. And the method, simultaneous attacks on multiple targets, that looks like al Qaeda when you first, when you, when you take a look at it.

CALLOWAY: So Kelly, let's talk about what's different about this. I was on the air when this story broke, and it just seemed that we had moved to a new level of terrorism with these surface-to-air missiles hitting a commercial airliner in a non-war zone. What are your thoughts on that?

MCCANN: I don't know of any other instance where a -- in a non- war zone, a civilian aircraft has been attacked with the missiles. The other thing is, of course, that this was conducted still at the end of Ramadan, before Ede (ph), which is unusual, because everyone's very sensitive to that, even the U.S. is sensitive to observing, you know, that holiday.

SO it's an interesting thing for a fundamentalist organization that espouses, you know, the importance of all that... CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... to attack (UNINTELLIGIBLE) this time.

CALLOWAY: And Kelly, I want to ask this to you both, but I'll start with you. How likely is it we could see something like that happen here in the U.S.? The first mission would be to get the -- those type of missiles here.

MCCANN: You know, the interesting thing, 3 to 7 percent of all containers coming into the U.S. are checked, that's it. So I think that the controls we have on our Stinger missiles here are stringent. As far as battlefield available black market weapons making their way in here, or even if you sent 15 and only three got in...

CALLOWAY: Right.

MCCANN: ... it's reasonable. But I don't think that we need to -- there's no precedents yet.

CALLOWAY: You know, Jim, Kelly just said, 2 to 7 percent of these cargo ships are investigated. Seems like it would be rather easy.

WALSH: Well, I think that terrorists tend to go for the soft targets over the hard targets, that's why they attacked in Kenya. And so I would expect that U.S. airlines might be targeted, but it's more likely that they'll be targeted in airports outside of the U.S. in the developing world at tourist spots like Indonesia, like a Kenya, than in the United States.

But these weapons are all around. Bin Laden was suspected of having them. The U.S. expected that he might use them during the Afghan war. Hezbollah supposedly received a shipment of these weapons. So they're out there, and I think it's likely to -- that we should expect that they'll be used against American targets, whether it's in the U.S. or abroad.

CALLOWAY: Gentlemen, we are running out of time here, less than a minute. But I want to get your thoughts on U.S. reaction to this, and should more be done? Israel encouraging tourists to return home. I haven't seen that with the U.S., only asking those abroad to be vigilant. Kelly, what do you think?

MCCANN: I think that we have to embrace this. I think this is a point moving forward. And as long as some of these people exist, you know, we -- and they will, then we're going to deal with this problem. We've got to embrace it more than we have.

CALLOWAY: Do you think more needs to be done, Jim?

WALSH: Well, sure, we can always do more. I'm a little hesitant to argue that the U.S. should tell all its visitors -- all its tourists to come back home. That would...

CALLOWAY: Right. WALSH: ... be playing into the terrorists' hands, it would hurt a lot of economies around the world.

But I do think Kenya can be doing a better job. This is, you know, instance number two where there has been a catastrophic attack. Clearly they are a soft spot. Al Qaeda realizes it, and they need to be doing more.

CALLOWAY: Kelly McCann and Jim Walsh, I know you're going to stay with us this morning. Thank you very much for getting up early with us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com