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CNN Saturday Morning News

Interview with John Tkacik

Aired January 11, 2003 - 07:07   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The war of words heating up between the U.S. and North Korea. Secretary of State Powell says the North has thumbed its nose at the world community by quitting the nuclear arms treaty. But the U.S. says it will use diplomatic channels to defuse the stand-off.
Joining us to talk about it, John Tkacik, a former State Department official, now with the Heritage Foundation.

Mr. Tkacik, good to have you with us.

JOHN TKACIK, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Thank you for having me.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the latest developments. First of all, the threat by the North Koreans to engage in ballistic missile testing. How serious a threat is that?

TKACIK: Well, we hadn't, we didn't expect it until a little bit later on. It is a serious threat. It will convince Japan that they have to go forward with a very robust missile defense program. But I don't think it changes the calculus here in Washington. Basically...

O'BRIEN: Why not? Why not?

TKACIK: Well, we're already facing the NPT withdrawal. The missile testing is some, is a promise that the North Koreans made to the European Union. They didn't make it to us. And it was a gesture to the European Union for their support in aid.

O'BRIEN: But North Korean missiles, North Korean missiles aren't going to reach Europe.

TKACIK: No.

O'BRIEN: They might, however, reach Alaska or Hawaii.

TKACIK: Well, as the commentator said, the best estimates now is that the earliest the North Koreans could have that kind of a range is 2015.

O'BRIEN: You believe that?

TKACIK: Yes, I think so.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about the fact that this reactor that is the focus of so much attention might be up and running quicker than we expected. Is that a surprise also?

TKACIK: I don't, it was a surprise to me, but I don't think it was a surprise in the intelligence community because the very first thing that the North Koreans did back at the end of December was to start bringing in new fuel rods. So I that they feel that that was when the reactor process was going to start.

O'BRIEN: Is it, it's difficult in this situation for me to separate the bluster from the reality. I presume you have a better shot at deciphering what the real intention of the North Korean regime is here. Do you care to speculate?

TKACIK: Many people have said that North Korea does not use the nuclear threat to gain leverage for economic aid. They say that North Korea wants a nuclear weapon for itself. It's basically...

O'BRIEN: Do you believe that? Do you go along with that?

TKACIK: I think that Kim Jong Il has proven to me that he's basically psychotic. His whole, the whole foundation for the legitimacy of his regime is I threaten, therefore I am. Without a nuclear weapon, North Korea is just another Rwanda or another Haiti. It's a dirt poor country with millions and millions of starving people and he's not doing anything about it.

So the having a nuclear weapon gives him the kind of brazen status to sort of get up and challenge the United States. And this sort of makes him the U.S.' equal and that, he feels, justifies his, or legitimizes his rule to his people.

O'BRIEN: Well, and certainly the U.S. reaction would validate those, that strange sort of existentialism you just talked about, I threaten, therefore I am. It works for him, doesn't it?

TKACIK: So, yes, so far it has worked for him and I think the key to defusing this situation is not to let it work, but rather to put the entire onus of controlling North Korea on China. And thus far, China has been very little help.

O'BRIEN: Why?

TKACIK: Why has China been little help?

O'BRIEN: Yes.

TKACIK: I think the Chinese, they're torn. They have several, they look at an end game in North Korea and what they see is no scenario that is, that benefits China. And the one that least harms China is basically trying to get the United States to talk Kim Jong Il down.

O'BRIEN: In other words, have the U.S. carry their water?

TKACIK: Yes, basically, and I think the Chinese are trying to get a free ride on this. O'BRIEN: All right, but the rest of the world wants a free ride off of the U.S. What would happen in this case -- game play this one for me for just a moment -- what if the U.S. just sat on its hands and said, you know, this is a Pacific Rim problem first -- Pacific Rim, go at it -- Japan, China, South Korea, deal with it?

TKACIK: Well, I think that what will happen in the next couple of weeks is that -- maybe sooner -- but ElBaradei, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the IAEA, will submit his report to the United Nations Security Council. The United Nations Security Council, I think, will table a very strong sanctions, economic sanctions resolution. The French have already indicated that this is unacceptable and France is the president of the Security Council.

So I think that we're looking at a steady escalation here and it will be, the United States' tactic will be to pull to the second or third line and let the United Nations and the Security Council machinery work forward.

The big variable here is what does China do. Does China veto the Security Council resolution or -- and thereby look to be North Korea's nuclear enabler -- or does China abstain and basically bear the consequences of what's going to happen, which is a collapsed North Korea?

O'BRIEN: And just quickly before we get away, it's got to be very difficult to figure how all this is going to play out when you say at the outset that this is a leader who you describe as psychotic.

TKACIK: Yes. Yes. No, that is a problem. And we've already got one problem on our hands, which is Iraq, and there may well be a calculus here that says somehow we can keep the Americans off balance if we continue to stir things up in a half a world away in the Northeast Asia/Western Pacific area.

So I think the first thing we probably have to do is take care of Iraq and then we can start turning our attentions toward North Korea.

O'BRIEN: Really? Interesting. I want to ask you more about that a little bit later.

TKACIK: Sure.

O'BRIEN: And we'll have that opportunity, because Mr. Tkacik is going to go have a cup of coffee and join us. The coffee's on us, by the way.

TKACIK: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The war of words heating up between the U.S. and North Korea. Secretary of State Powell says the North has thumbed its nose at the world community by quitting the nuclear arms treaty.>


Aired January 11, 2003 - 07:07   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The war of words heating up between the U.S. and North Korea. Secretary of State Powell says the North has thumbed its nose at the world community by quitting the nuclear arms treaty. But the U.S. says it will use diplomatic channels to defuse the stand-off.
Joining us to talk about it, John Tkacik, a former State Department official, now with the Heritage Foundation.

Mr. Tkacik, good to have you with us.

JOHN TKACIK, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Thank you for having me.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the latest developments. First of all, the threat by the North Koreans to engage in ballistic missile testing. How serious a threat is that?

TKACIK: Well, we hadn't, we didn't expect it until a little bit later on. It is a serious threat. It will convince Japan that they have to go forward with a very robust missile defense program. But I don't think it changes the calculus here in Washington. Basically...

O'BRIEN: Why not? Why not?

TKACIK: Well, we're already facing the NPT withdrawal. The missile testing is some, is a promise that the North Koreans made to the European Union. They didn't make it to us. And it was a gesture to the European Union for their support in aid.

O'BRIEN: But North Korean missiles, North Korean missiles aren't going to reach Europe.

TKACIK: No.

O'BRIEN: They might, however, reach Alaska or Hawaii.

TKACIK: Well, as the commentator said, the best estimates now is that the earliest the North Koreans could have that kind of a range is 2015.

O'BRIEN: You believe that?

TKACIK: Yes, I think so.

O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk about the fact that this reactor that is the focus of so much attention might be up and running quicker than we expected. Is that a surprise also?

TKACIK: I don't, it was a surprise to me, but I don't think it was a surprise in the intelligence community because the very first thing that the North Koreans did back at the end of December was to start bringing in new fuel rods. So I that they feel that that was when the reactor process was going to start.

O'BRIEN: Is it, it's difficult in this situation for me to separate the bluster from the reality. I presume you have a better shot at deciphering what the real intention of the North Korean regime is here. Do you care to speculate?

TKACIK: Many people have said that North Korea does not use the nuclear threat to gain leverage for economic aid. They say that North Korea wants a nuclear weapon for itself. It's basically...

O'BRIEN: Do you believe that? Do you go along with that?

TKACIK: I think that Kim Jong Il has proven to me that he's basically psychotic. His whole, the whole foundation for the legitimacy of his regime is I threaten, therefore I am. Without a nuclear weapon, North Korea is just another Rwanda or another Haiti. It's a dirt poor country with millions and millions of starving people and he's not doing anything about it.

So the having a nuclear weapon gives him the kind of brazen status to sort of get up and challenge the United States. And this sort of makes him the U.S.' equal and that, he feels, justifies his, or legitimizes his rule to his people.

O'BRIEN: Well, and certainly the U.S. reaction would validate those, that strange sort of existentialism you just talked about, I threaten, therefore I am. It works for him, doesn't it?

TKACIK: So, yes, so far it has worked for him and I think the key to defusing this situation is not to let it work, but rather to put the entire onus of controlling North Korea on China. And thus far, China has been very little help.

O'BRIEN: Why?

TKACIK: Why has China been little help?

O'BRIEN: Yes.

TKACIK: I think the Chinese, they're torn. They have several, they look at an end game in North Korea and what they see is no scenario that is, that benefits China. And the one that least harms China is basically trying to get the United States to talk Kim Jong Il down.

O'BRIEN: In other words, have the U.S. carry their water?

TKACIK: Yes, basically, and I think the Chinese are trying to get a free ride on this. O'BRIEN: All right, but the rest of the world wants a free ride off of the U.S. What would happen in this case -- game play this one for me for just a moment -- what if the U.S. just sat on its hands and said, you know, this is a Pacific Rim problem first -- Pacific Rim, go at it -- Japan, China, South Korea, deal with it?

TKACIK: Well, I think that what will happen in the next couple of weeks is that -- maybe sooner -- but ElBaradei, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the IAEA, will submit his report to the United Nations Security Council. The United Nations Security Council, I think, will table a very strong sanctions, economic sanctions resolution. The French have already indicated that this is unacceptable and France is the president of the Security Council.

So I think that we're looking at a steady escalation here and it will be, the United States' tactic will be to pull to the second or third line and let the United Nations and the Security Council machinery work forward.

The big variable here is what does China do. Does China veto the Security Council resolution or -- and thereby look to be North Korea's nuclear enabler -- or does China abstain and basically bear the consequences of what's going to happen, which is a collapsed North Korea?

O'BRIEN: And just quickly before we get away, it's got to be very difficult to figure how all this is going to play out when you say at the outset that this is a leader who you describe as psychotic.

TKACIK: Yes. Yes. No, that is a problem. And we've already got one problem on our hands, which is Iraq, and there may well be a calculus here that says somehow we can keep the Americans off balance if we continue to stir things up in a half a world away in the Northeast Asia/Western Pacific area.

So I think the first thing we probably have to do is take care of Iraq and then we can start turning our attentions toward North Korea.

O'BRIEN: Really? Interesting. I want to ask you more about that a little bit later.

TKACIK: Sure.

O'BRIEN: And we'll have that opportunity, because Mr. Tkacik is going to go have a cup of coffee and join us. The coffee's on us, by the way.

TKACIK: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







MILES O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The war of words heating up between the U.S. and North Korea. Secretary of State Powell says the North has thumbed its nose at the world community by quitting the nuclear arms treaty.>