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CNN Saturday Morning News
Interview With Mamoun Fandy
Aired February 22, 2003 - 09:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN ANCHOR: Secretary of State Colin Powell is doing some coalition building of his own overseas. He's beginning a four-day trip to Japan, China, and South Korea. His mission is twofold. One is building a consensus on dealing with the North Korean dispute, the other is reaching out to U.N. Security Council members to get support for a new use of force resolution on Iraq.
And amid fears of war, Arab leaders pushed up their annual meeting in March to March 1 in Cairo. Topping their agenda, of course, is the Iraqi conflict. Arab League ministers met last week, where they issued a communique that said, quote, "Refrain from offering any assistance to -- or facilities to any -- or to any military operation that might threaten the security, safety, and territorial integrity of Iraq." That's the statement from those Arab foreign ministers, again meeting on March 1.
Joining us now to discuss all this is Mamoun Fandy. He's a Middle East scholar and author of "Saudi Arabia and the Politics of Dissent."
Thank you very much for joining us this morning. So...
MAMOUN FANDY, MIDDLE EAST SCHOLAR: Thank you, Jonathan.
KARL: ... where are the Arab League countries going to come down on this? I mean, it's frequently said that they're obviously publicly very much against the U.S. position, but privately, they would have no problem seeing Saddam Hussein go.
FANDY: Well, Jonathan, the Arab League is made of 22 Arab countries of diverse interests and made of diverse political systems. And they rarely agree on issues. I mean, the Arab League, since its inception in 1945 until today, has failed all of the major tests as far as crises are concerned, the latest of which was Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. They failed to do any kind of concerted effort.
So, I mean, if you want to tabulate, right now, you have really small Gulf states with American troops stationed in them, plus Jordan, are supporting the United States. The two major countries that are of weight, political weight and financial weight, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, they are leaning toward supporting the United States, especially because Egypt depends very heavily on the United States and the largest recipient of aid in the Arab world.
So then you have Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and Libya, they will always be anti-United States, at least rhetorically. So the big picture is really sort of a mixed bag, but bottom line is that really the Arab world will go where Egypt and Saudi Arabia would go. These are the trend-setters in the Arab world.
And the (UNINTELLIGIBLE), the signs show that these countries are going on the U.S. column.
KARL: Now, they -- the Arab League also had a similar meeting after Iraq invaded Kuwait back in 1990, August of 1990, and that meeting was even more contentious, right? I mean, didn't we actually see people throwing sauce, throwing silverware and plates around?
FANDY: That's right. I mean, this is -- this is -- that -- that tells it all. And even the last one, that was last week, was more of a major fiasco. I mean, even the communique that was delivered by the secretary general, Arma Mussa (ph), is really a butt of jokes throughout the Arab world, because the preparation for a summit is something that you're not supposed to have a communique after it. The Arab leaders are supposed to have the communique.
And now, even they have failed to agree on a date for the summit.
KARL: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) who are the major players in the Arab League? You mentioned, obviously, it's hard to say if an Arab League position because they are so divided. But how are Egypt and Saudi Arabia looking at the possibility of an American interim government, an American-led interim government in a postwar Iraq?
FANDY: Well, I think people are throughout, whether Saudi Arabia or neighboring countries to Iraq, are interested in protecting their own interests. At least they want to make sure that a new government that will come in in Iraq will not be hostile to them or hostile to their interests.
So really the idea of an American-led government, interim government in Iraq, is not something that will bother them. The main thing is that if they succeed in this coming summit, March 1, that's if it happens, in providing a political cover for the movement, and writing the death threat, the death sentence of Saddam Hussein's statement, then it will all work out from there.
KARL: Now, one of the difficult issues, looking at the possibility of war and the immediate aftermath, even just as we -- as the U.S. were to go into Iraq, is, what happens with the Kurds? Obviously, you have Kurd population, Kurdish populations in Turkey and Iraq and Iran.
FANDY: And that's the big question.
KARL: What happens? I mean, the U.S. has made it clear that they want to maintain the territorial, they want to maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq. Is that really going to happen? The Kurds are going to want an independent state?
FANDY: I mean, that's the -- really the biggest question and the biggest concern throughout this upcoming operation. I mean, as you said, the Kurds exist in Iran, in Turkey, in Syria. All these countries have no interest in having a Kurdish state. And I think the major assurances that the Turks would want in their bargain with the United States is, make sure that, indeed, such eventuality will not take place.
And this is why they're asking to actually have their own Turkish troops behind the American troops to walk in and make sure that the Kurds will not call for independence during this whole chaos of war.
KARL: And certainly, that demand for the Turks may actually be more important than the extra $6 billion or so that they want out of the United States.
FANDY: I think that's a very important question for them, but also the money part of it is also big for the Turks.
KARL: All right. Well, hey, well, thank you very much for joining us this morning. We'll be following this very closely.
FANDY: Thank you very much, Jonathan.
KARL: And stay -- Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 22, 2003 - 09:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JONATHAN KARL, CNN ANCHOR: Secretary of State Colin Powell is doing some coalition building of his own overseas. He's beginning a four-day trip to Japan, China, and South Korea. His mission is twofold. One is building a consensus on dealing with the North Korean dispute, the other is reaching out to U.N. Security Council members to get support for a new use of force resolution on Iraq.
And amid fears of war, Arab leaders pushed up their annual meeting in March to March 1 in Cairo. Topping their agenda, of course, is the Iraqi conflict. Arab League ministers met last week, where they issued a communique that said, quote, "Refrain from offering any assistance to -- or facilities to any -- or to any military operation that might threaten the security, safety, and territorial integrity of Iraq." That's the statement from those Arab foreign ministers, again meeting on March 1.
Joining us now to discuss all this is Mamoun Fandy. He's a Middle East scholar and author of "Saudi Arabia and the Politics of Dissent."
Thank you very much for joining us this morning. So...
MAMOUN FANDY, MIDDLE EAST SCHOLAR: Thank you, Jonathan.
KARL: ... where are the Arab League countries going to come down on this? I mean, it's frequently said that they're obviously publicly very much against the U.S. position, but privately, they would have no problem seeing Saddam Hussein go.
FANDY: Well, Jonathan, the Arab League is made of 22 Arab countries of diverse interests and made of diverse political systems. And they rarely agree on issues. I mean, the Arab League, since its inception in 1945 until today, has failed all of the major tests as far as crises are concerned, the latest of which was Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. They failed to do any kind of concerted effort.
So, I mean, if you want to tabulate, right now, you have really small Gulf states with American troops stationed in them, plus Jordan, are supporting the United States. The two major countries that are of weight, political weight and financial weight, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, they are leaning toward supporting the United States, especially because Egypt depends very heavily on the United States and the largest recipient of aid in the Arab world.
So then you have Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and Libya, they will always be anti-United States, at least rhetorically. So the big picture is really sort of a mixed bag, but bottom line is that really the Arab world will go where Egypt and Saudi Arabia would go. These are the trend-setters in the Arab world.
And the (UNINTELLIGIBLE), the signs show that these countries are going on the U.S. column.
KARL: Now, they -- the Arab League also had a similar meeting after Iraq invaded Kuwait back in 1990, August of 1990, and that meeting was even more contentious, right? I mean, didn't we actually see people throwing sauce, throwing silverware and plates around?
FANDY: That's right. I mean, this is -- this is -- that -- that tells it all. And even the last one, that was last week, was more of a major fiasco. I mean, even the communique that was delivered by the secretary general, Arma Mussa (ph), is really a butt of jokes throughout the Arab world, because the preparation for a summit is something that you're not supposed to have a communique after it. The Arab leaders are supposed to have the communique.
And now, even they have failed to agree on a date for the summit.
KARL: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) who are the major players in the Arab League? You mentioned, obviously, it's hard to say if an Arab League position because they are so divided. But how are Egypt and Saudi Arabia looking at the possibility of an American interim government, an American-led interim government in a postwar Iraq?
FANDY: Well, I think people are throughout, whether Saudi Arabia or neighboring countries to Iraq, are interested in protecting their own interests. At least they want to make sure that a new government that will come in in Iraq will not be hostile to them or hostile to their interests.
So really the idea of an American-led government, interim government in Iraq, is not something that will bother them. The main thing is that if they succeed in this coming summit, March 1, that's if it happens, in providing a political cover for the movement, and writing the death threat, the death sentence of Saddam Hussein's statement, then it will all work out from there.
KARL: Now, one of the difficult issues, looking at the possibility of war and the immediate aftermath, even just as we -- as the U.S. were to go into Iraq, is, what happens with the Kurds? Obviously, you have Kurd population, Kurdish populations in Turkey and Iraq and Iran.
FANDY: And that's the big question.
KARL: What happens? I mean, the U.S. has made it clear that they want to maintain the territorial, they want to maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq. Is that really going to happen? The Kurds are going to want an independent state?
FANDY: I mean, that's the -- really the biggest question and the biggest concern throughout this upcoming operation. I mean, as you said, the Kurds exist in Iran, in Turkey, in Syria. All these countries have no interest in having a Kurdish state. And I think the major assurances that the Turks would want in their bargain with the United States is, make sure that, indeed, such eventuality will not take place.
And this is why they're asking to actually have their own Turkish troops behind the American troops to walk in and make sure that the Kurds will not call for independence during this whole chaos of war.
KARL: And certainly, that demand for the Turks may actually be more important than the extra $6 billion or so that they want out of the United States.
FANDY: I think that's a very important question for them, but also the money part of it is also big for the Turks.
KARL: All right. Well, hey, well, thank you very much for joining us this morning. We'll be following this very closely.
FANDY: Thank you very much, Jonathan.
KARL: And stay -- Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
