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CNN Saturday Morning News

Intervie with Charles Lipson

Aired June 28, 2003 - 09:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And as we have just been hearing, sources tell CNN the Palestinian militants are about to announce a three-month ceasefire on attacks against Israelis.
Also, in a matter of days, Israel could begin a limited troop withdrawal from Gaza. The developments come as U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice is in route to the region for talks with leaders on both sides.

For more insight on these developments, we are joined now by Dr. Charles Lipson. He's a professor of international politics at the University of Chicago.

Good morning to you, sir. Thanks for being with us.

CHARLES LIPSON, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: Tell us, how significant is Dr. Condoleezza Rice's visit? It seems like this might be almost a direct extension of President Bush's arm, if you will, in his involvement in this peace process.

LIPSON: I think you've hit the nail right on the head. That's exactly what what's important about it. Condoleezza Rice is not the secretary of state, she's not the secretary of defense, she's right out of the White House.

And, in fact, we have reason to believe that this Gaza withdrawal was essentially in place a week or so ago, and that the parties waited to announce it until Condoleezza Rice had been there, because she represents the direct involvement of President Bush, something that Bush had said at the very beginning of his administration he would not do.

COLLINS: Why do you think the change in the administrative policy?

LIPSON: I think a couple of reasons. I think the biggest reason is that in the aftermath of the Iraq war, there's just a special possibility of creating a peace there. That's exactly what happened after the first Gulf War. That's when the Madrid conference and then ultimately the Oslo process got moving.

Everybody recognizes that this is a tremendous obstacle to creating a new Middle East. We can't do something in Israel/Palestine, it will be very hard to change the whole region. That was one of the purposes of the war. So I think that this draws the White House back in.

And the second reason is that all the surrounding states have been urging the Bush administration to do it, and the Israelis and the Palestinians are tired. They'd like to do it.

COLLINS: And speaking of that very issue, if the Palestinian militants stop their bombings, will, then, Sharon also stop targeting attacks against militants? Your views on that.

LIPSON: He hasn't said that he would, but I don't think that he can easily go into Gaza if, in fact, that's been turned over to the Palestinian Authority. Their obligation under the agreement, as I understand it, is to stop the ticking bombs. If, however, they can't stop them, then the Israelis will move in. So if they're successful in stopping them, I think you'll see Gaza as a first step, and perhaps Bethlehem as a next step.

So the question is whether the Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority is able to step in, and, as President Bush himself said, the question is also whether or not they'll just not -- there'll be more than a ceasefire, there'll be an actual dismantling of some of the terror organizations there.

COLLINS: But we have also seen an increased presence, if you will, of Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat. Now, that has some people at least concerned. This was not the direction that the Bush administration originally wanted to go in as far as negotiations are concerned. If it's not clear that the PA has the authority to dismantle Hamas entirely, why don't they?

LIPSON: Well, you're exactly right about Yasser Arafat. Yasser Arafat had the choice all along, for years, to really make fundamental decisions to take control, to stamp out the terrorist organizations. He, in fact, had very close ties to them. He's had no intention of doing that. And I think that the United States has agreed that he is an obstacle to peace.

By the same token, they don't want to take him on directly, for fear that it would undermine some of the other groups within the Palestinian Authority.

So I think that it's up in the air, but as long as he's a major presence in the Palestinian Authority, I think it's an obstacle to Abbas taking real control and moving forward on these issues.

COLLINS: Dr. Charles Lipson, thank you so much for your insight this morning, international politics professor at the University of Chicago. Thanks again, sir.

LIPSON: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired June 28, 2003 - 09:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And as we have just been hearing, sources tell CNN the Palestinian militants are about to announce a three-month ceasefire on attacks against Israelis.
Also, in a matter of days, Israel could begin a limited troop withdrawal from Gaza. The developments come as U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice is in route to the region for talks with leaders on both sides.

For more insight on these developments, we are joined now by Dr. Charles Lipson. He's a professor of international politics at the University of Chicago.

Good morning to you, sir. Thanks for being with us.

CHARLES LIPSON, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO: Good morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: Tell us, how significant is Dr. Condoleezza Rice's visit? It seems like this might be almost a direct extension of President Bush's arm, if you will, in his involvement in this peace process.

LIPSON: I think you've hit the nail right on the head. That's exactly what what's important about it. Condoleezza Rice is not the secretary of state, she's not the secretary of defense, she's right out of the White House.

And, in fact, we have reason to believe that this Gaza withdrawal was essentially in place a week or so ago, and that the parties waited to announce it until Condoleezza Rice had been there, because she represents the direct involvement of President Bush, something that Bush had said at the very beginning of his administration he would not do.

COLLINS: Why do you think the change in the administrative policy?

LIPSON: I think a couple of reasons. I think the biggest reason is that in the aftermath of the Iraq war, there's just a special possibility of creating a peace there. That's exactly what happened after the first Gulf War. That's when the Madrid conference and then ultimately the Oslo process got moving.

Everybody recognizes that this is a tremendous obstacle to creating a new Middle East. We can't do something in Israel/Palestine, it will be very hard to change the whole region. That was one of the purposes of the war. So I think that this draws the White House back in.

And the second reason is that all the surrounding states have been urging the Bush administration to do it, and the Israelis and the Palestinians are tired. They'd like to do it.

COLLINS: And speaking of that very issue, if the Palestinian militants stop their bombings, will, then, Sharon also stop targeting attacks against militants? Your views on that.

LIPSON: He hasn't said that he would, but I don't think that he can easily go into Gaza if, in fact, that's been turned over to the Palestinian Authority. Their obligation under the agreement, as I understand it, is to stop the ticking bombs. If, however, they can't stop them, then the Israelis will move in. So if they're successful in stopping them, I think you'll see Gaza as a first step, and perhaps Bethlehem as a next step.

So the question is whether the Palestinians, the Palestinian Authority is able to step in, and, as President Bush himself said, the question is also whether or not they'll just not -- there'll be more than a ceasefire, there'll be an actual dismantling of some of the terror organizations there.

COLLINS: But we have also seen an increased presence, if you will, of Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat. Now, that has some people at least concerned. This was not the direction that the Bush administration originally wanted to go in as far as negotiations are concerned. If it's not clear that the PA has the authority to dismantle Hamas entirely, why don't they?

LIPSON: Well, you're exactly right about Yasser Arafat. Yasser Arafat had the choice all along, for years, to really make fundamental decisions to take control, to stamp out the terrorist organizations. He, in fact, had very close ties to them. He's had no intention of doing that. And I think that the United States has agreed that he is an obstacle to peace.

By the same token, they don't want to take him on directly, for fear that it would undermine some of the other groups within the Palestinian Authority.

So I think that it's up in the air, but as long as he's a major presence in the Palestinian Authority, I think it's an obstacle to Abbas taking real control and moving forward on these issues.

COLLINS: Dr. Charles Lipson, thank you so much for your insight this morning, international politics professor at the University of Chicago. Thanks again, sir.

LIPSON: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com